等风来Vireo

There is a lot of noise in the market, filled with endless "opinions".

Professional traders shouldn't even look at news, but rely solely on data for decision-making.

The difficulty in trading lies in the fact that making mistakes can lead to profits, while doing the right thing can often result in losses.

Without a systematic risk control mechanism, trading actually introduces risks, and operational risks far exceed volatility risks.

It may seem like a lot of effort is put in daily, but it's actually a negative cycle. The correct approach is to maintain a positive cycle, continue researching, and keep accumulating.

Not all pain has value; true "effective pain" must be built within a framework of scientific methodology.

Bitcoin has won a ticket to Wall Street through ETFs, but in doing so, it has surrendered its "independent" soul.

Institutionalization is the culprit that deprives Bitcoin of its "hedge attribute." BTC has lost its immunity to mainstream financial collapse because it has been fully embraced by mainstream finance. You think you are buying an ark against the collapse of fiat currency, but in reality, what you are buying is an amplifier of Wall Street's risk appetite.

In simple terms, Bitcoin is now welded to the very end of Wall Street's global liquidity chain. When the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the yen carry trade, which is a major conduit of global funds, will shrink. Wall Street fund managers must sell assets to plug the holes. Who is the easiest to sell? Who never closes? Who has the greatest volatility? It is Bitcoin.
$BTC #btc

Circle has substantially acquired core assets through mergers and acquisitions teams and intellectual property while bypassing the rights of AXL token holders. Some community members claim that Circle was extremely tough on AXL investors during the negotiations, further exacerbating dissatisfaction.

Reassess the tokens in your hand; the Circle merger case has sounded the alarm for you. If the so-called 'governance tokens' you hold do not have clearly defined legal rights anchored, once the project is acquired by a giant, you may not get a penny.

Buying tokens ≠ buying equity

Most people believe that a good project equals high appreciation, but during a liquidity tightening cycle, the FDV of top projects may only be 1/5 of what it was in a bull market. This means that choosing the right project but the wrong time (macro environment) can still lead to losses.

Most people are results-oriented, a form of quick thinking that aligns with human nature, simple and efficient. In their world, winning is "right" and losing is "wrong".

However, observing logic goes against human nature. To verify whether a person's decision-making logic is correct, you need to master professional knowledge, gather information, and review the process, which is too exhausting and has a high threshold.

The real world is full of randomness. In the short term, a wrong logic (such as betting everything on the lottery) may yield huge profits (winning); while a correct logic (such as holding quality assets in the long term) may face short-term floating losses (losing).

If you win by luck, you cannot replicate this process. The things learned from "observing wins and losses" are often wrong experiences, and using them next time may lead to disastrous consequences.

Logic is a system. If your logic is rigorous (for example: based on supply and demand relationships, based on fundamental analysis, based on probability calculations), even if you lose this time, you dare to face the short-term "loss". They will review the process, and if there are problems with the logic, they will correct it. This process of correction is growth.

L2 starts to provide Ethereum secure payment 'fair value', Blob burning becomes an important source of ETH destruction

Before Upgrade
ETH inflation rate +0.8% ~ +1.0% (annualized, inflation state)

After Upgrade
+0.1% ~ +0.5% (inflation significantly narrowed)

Currently returning from inflation to the 'deflation' critical point, if on-chain activity rises again, ETH will enter a continuous deflationary state

#ETH $ETH #ETH走势分析

Doing is more important than saying

#btc #ETH $BTC $ETH

The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% early this morning,

Key points from the Federal Reserve's statement and Powell's press conference:

FOMC Statement:

Overview of the statement: The interest rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting with a rate cut. Milan supported a 50 basis point cut, while Goolsbee and Schmidt supported keeping the rate unchanged.

Interest rate outlook: Further adjustments to the magnitude and timing of interest rate changes will be considered. The median in the dot plot remains consistent with September, with one expected rate cut in each of the next two years.

Inflation outlook: Inflation has risen compared to the beginning of the year and remains relatively high, consistent with previous statements. The inflation forecast for next year was lowered in the SEP.

Economic outlook: Economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, with high uncertainty about the outlook, consistent with previous statements. The GDP growth rate for the next three years has been revised upward across the board.

Labor market: The description of a "relatively low" unemployment rate has been removed, as the downside risks to employment have increased in recent months. The unemployment rate forecast for next year remains unchanged at 4.4%.

Bond purchases: Purchases of treasury bills will begin on December 12, with $40 billion in treasury bills to be bought over the next 30 days. Restrictions on the operation of standing overnight repo operations have been lifted.

Powell's press conference:

Interest rate outlook: We can wait and observe how the economy develops. Currently at the upper end of the neutral range. No one expects a rate hike as the baseline expectation. Long-term rates may rise due to expectations of faster economic growth.

Inflation outlook: The inflation risk is skewed to the upside. The peak inflation rate could be slightly above or below the current level by a few tenths of a percent. Current inflation overshoot is mainly due to tariffs. If tariffs are lifted, inflation rates will be at the lower end of the 2% range. The impact of tariffs is likely to be one-time.

Economic outlook: Does not believe the economy is overheating; the baseline outlook for next year is robust growth, waiting and observing the developments.

Employment outlook: There are downside risks in the labor market. Recent job growth has been overstated by 60,000 positions. The unemployment rate could rise by up to 0.1%-0.2% more.

Bond purchase situation: Short-term treasury bill purchases are solely for reserve management, and the scale of bond purchases may remain high in the coming months, gradually decreasing afterward.
Latest expectations: The futures market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 55 basis points next year, slightly increasing from before the meeting, with a 24.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January.

Tonight, the Federal Reserve's last interest rate meeting of the year is approaching.

Tonight, 3 key "deciding factors" to watch.
In this context, the focus at 3:00 (interest rate decision) and 3:30 (press conference) is no longer about lowering by 25 basis points (since the probability is nearly 90%, this has been priced in by the market), but rather:

The official wording of the RMP: Did Powell use terms like "Reserve Management" or "Organic Growth"? Did he confirm the timeline and scale of January and 45 billion? (If confirmed, U.S. stocks may surge violently after the decision).

The dispersion of the Dot Plot: Look at the distribution of the Dot Plot for 2026. If the committee members' predicted points are very scattered (some predict many rate cuts, while others predict rate hikes), it validates the "increased internal divergence", which will be bearish for long-term U.S. Treasuries.

Dissent Votes: How many opposing votes are there? If there are 2 or fewer, the market will feel okay; if there are 3 or more (as per your cited data), the market will panic over the Federal Reserve's rifts, which may lead to sharp fluctuations in the dollar in the short term.

Summary in one sentence
Tonight's meeting suggests that the Federal Reserve is trying to quietly provide liquidity to the market through technical means (RMP) under the premise of "not acknowledging the restart of QE", to cover up the enormous political divergence within regarding whether "rate cuts are correct".
#美联储FOMC会议

The reason for the increase is here

#加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 #eth #BTC $BTC $ETH