WangLoc

This chart suggests a #bitcoin cycle low around ~$25,000 in 2026 👀
If this plays out, it wouldn’t be shocking. Deep bear markets historically compress sentiment to extremes long after the majority believes the pain is already over.
The real question isn’t whether $25k is possible it’s how prepared people are to buy when narratives are dead, volume is gone, and conviction is at its lowest.
Markets don’t bottom when hope exists.
They bottom when everyone stops caring.
If this model is even partially right, 2026 could be where long-term wealth is quietly built not chased.
#CPIWatch #WriteToEarnUpgrade $BTC $XRP $ETH

Bitcoin has formed a textbook inverse head & shoulders, and price is now retesting the neckline the exact zone where real trends are confirmed or invalidated.
Why this matters:
Extended accumulation builds latent pressureBreakout followed by a pullback = healthy structureNeckline retest is confirmation, not weakness
This is the point where doubt peaks.
Historically, it’s also where expansions begin, not where they end.
If structure holds, upside projections stretch far beyond where most traders are currently positioned.
$200K sounds extreme today.
So did every major upside target before it happened.
Big trends never start with comfort.
They start with hesitation.

A reserve currency is not a throne. It’s a network.
And that network has three layers:
Safe assetsPricing & paymentsDebt financing
Most “USD is dying” arguments look at only one layer usually reserve share and stop there. That’s a lazy shortcut.
When you zoom out across all three layers, the conclusion is clear:
👉 The U.S. dollar is still the backbone of global finance.
Monetary power vs. economic size
A practical way to measure currency dominance is to compare its international role with its share of global GDP and trade.
By that measure, USD power is outsized.
FX reserves (COFER): ~56–58%Global payments (SWIFT): ~47% in 2024FX trading (BIS Apr 2025): USD on 89.2% of all trades
This is far larger than the U.S. share of global output or trade a classic signal that financial market depth and safe-asset supply, not trade flows, drive reserve status.
The story isn’t “the world is dumping USD.” The real story is that USD dominance is shifting form, not disappearing.

Reserves are diversifying not escaping the dollar system
Yes, USD’s reserve share has drifted down slightly:
Q4 2024: 57.8%Q2 2025: 56.3%
But after FX-adjustment, the actual decline in Q2 2025 was only ~0.12 bps statistically trivial.
More importantly, what replaced USD?
Not the euro. Not the yen.
Flows went into:
RMB (modest)AUD, CAD, Nordics, some EM FX
This is portfolio optimization, not dollar rejection. And for central banks, “holding USD” doesn’t mean cash it means U.S. Treasuries.
Foreign investors still hold ~$8.2T in U.S. Treasuries (~33% outstanding).
What changed since 2023 is who holds them:
Private foreign investors now exceed official buyers
That’s a channel shift, not a confidence collapse. There is still no substitute for the U.S. Treasury market as global collateral.

Payments & trade: USD remains the default language
If reserves are the warehouse, payments are the pipelines. And USD still runs the pipes.
Share of exports invoiced in USD (2025):
Americas: 96.3%Asia-Pacific: 74%Rest of world: 79.4%
USD remains the vehicle currency of global trade.
Even as U.S. trade share declines, USD’s payment share rises:
2010: 31.8%2023: 44.0%2024: 47.0%
This perfectly fits the Dominant Currency Paradigm:
A currency doesn’t need trade dominance to rule it needs pricing power and liquidity.
Markets gravitate toward the deepest, most standardized unit. That’s still USD.
The currency of debt: the real lock-in
This is the layer most people ignore. By Q3 2025:
~$14T in USD credit to non-U.S. borrowers55–66% of all international debt issuance in USDOff-balance-sheet USD debt via FX swaps:~$26T (non-banks)~$39T (banks)
This debt is short-term and rollover-sensitive. That’s why during:
2008March 2020
Global USD shortages forced the Fed to open swap lines. No other central bank can do this at scale. This is why global liquidity is still single-polar, even as reserves become multi-polar.

De-dollarization is real but limited
Yes, BRICS talk about alternatives. But the data is unromantic:
RMB reserves: ~2%RMB trade invoicing: <2%Oil trade: still overwhelmingly USD
Meanwhile:
>99% of stablecoins are USD-peggedStablecoin growth increases demand for T-bills, not alternatives
Ironically, crypto rails may extend USD’s reach, not weaken it. Gold is the only clear reserve hedge:
Central banks bought >1,000 tons annually (2022–2024)Still, gold complements USD it doesn’t replace its liquidity role
We are not entering a post-dollar world. We are entering a system of:
Multi-polar reservesSingle-polar liquidity
USD may quietly lose share in storage, but in payments, FX, debt, and crisis liquidity, it remains unmatched.
DXY weakness and gold’s rally reflect policy cycles and confidence waves, not the collapse of dollar dominance.
The real question isn’t whether the dollar survives but how long the world can function without an alternative liquidity engine.
So far, there isn’t one.
#usd #USGovernment #MarketAnalysis $BTC $XAU

The most important level on Bitcoin right now isn’t support. It’s $85,000 and the reason has nothing to do with indicators.
It’s about trapped capital. Over the past 3 months, everyone who bought Bitcoin between $85K–$108K is now underwater.
That entire zone has turned into overhead supply a dense cluster of trapped longs waiting for one thing: a chance to exit.
When price rallies back toward $85K, those holders get their first shot at breakeven. Historically, most don’t hesitate. They sell. That creates sell pressure on every recovery attempt.
Why this resistance is different
This isn’t a thin technical level. It’s a volume fortress.
Between October–December 2025, more than $120B in spot volume traded in the $85K–$95K range.
For comparison:
March 2024 consolidation ($60K–$70K): ~$80B Current trapped zone ($85K–$95K): ~$120B
That’s 50% more capital stuck here than any other consolidation this cycle.
This matters because markets don’t fight indicators they fight human behavior under loss.
The timing problem
Current price: ~$78K
Distance to $85K: ~9%
That 9% rally doesn’t mean upside. It means running directly into sellers.
On-chain and positioning data show the average hold time for underwater positions is 45–90 days before capitulation behavior changes.
We’re currently around day 60.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $85K convincingly within the next 30 days, psychology shifts:
From “I’ll sell at breakeven”To “I’ll sell any bounce”
That’s how resistance turns from temporary into structural.
What this means
$85K isn’t just resistance. It’s a decision zone for the entire market. Until that trapped supply is absorbed or exhausted, Bitcoin is likely to:
Struggle on ralliesReject sharply near $85K Range beneath it for months, not weeks
This isn’t bearish it’s context.
Markets move when supply is cleared, not when narratives change.
Price reacts to emotions.Structure reacts to volume.
$BTC #bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #Onchain

When Bitcoin bounced toward $97,000, the market reaction was predictable.
Green candles returned.
Confidence snapped back instantly.
The $100K narrative was resurrected.
That moment was exactly why I warned: this was not a bullish continuation it was a liquidity-driven rebound.
Today, Bitcoin trades around $75,000, roughly 23% lower.
This isn’t about being “right”.
It’s about understanding why this outcome was statistically favored.

What most people focused on (and why it failed)
At $97K, the dominant logic was simple:
Price is going upSentiment is improving“The correction is over”
But price alone is never the signal. From a weekly structure perspective, BTC showed:
Weak continuationHeavy price behaviorNo expansion after reclaiming key levels
This is not how strong trends resume. This is how late liquidity gets trapped.
The signal that mattered: flows vs. price
While retail chased the recovery, institutional flows stayed structurally positive. That divergence is critical.
It often means:
Large players are distributing into strengthLiquidity is being absorbed, not accumulated for upsidePrice is moving because of positioning, not demand
This is how deceptive rallies are built.
Why Bitcoin behaves differently now
Bitcoin is no longer a simple risk-on trade. With:
Fair-value accountingDeep derivatives marketsInstitutional balance-sheet access
BTC has become a rotational asset, not a linear one. When friction disappears, markets don’t become safer they become more efficient at punishing emotional positioning.
That’s why modern BTC pullbacks feel sharper, faster, and more confusing.

The real mistake wasn’t buying Bitcoin
It was buying without context.
At $97K:
Confidence rose faster than structural confirmationPositioning became crowdedRisk was mispriced
That’s not where upside asymmetry lives.
This wasn’t a bearish call.
It was a risk-management call
Because in every market cycle:
Being early feels uncomfortableBeing late feels obviousFOMO feels safe… right before it isn’t
Price tells stories. Structure tells the truth.
So the question every trader should ask themselves is simple:
Are you reacting to candles or reading liquidity?
$BTC #bitcoin #CryptoMarket #WhenWillBTCRebound

$DOGE has officially filled the 10/10 wick and is now sitting right on the 0.887 Fibonacci support a level that historically decides everything.
If DOGE is going to bounce, it has to happen here. This is the “now or never” zone.
But let’s be honest with the chart:
No bullish divergenceDownside momentum is still acceleratingStructure is weak and far from clean
That makes this setup high risk, low forgiveness. Any upside move without strong follow-through is likely just a reaction, not a reversal.
In bull phases, this level can spark explosive rebounds.
In weak markets, this is where hope gets punished.
I’m watching price behavior here very closely reaction matters more than prediction.
👉 Do you see a support bounce or a breakdown continuation?
Comment your bias 👇
#DOGE #altcoins #priceaction

As long as OTHERS/BTC remains inside this long-term parallel channel and holds the lower boundary, the structure is still intact.
This is compression, not failure. The trigger is very clear:
➡️ A break of the January 2022 downtrend
That’s the moment altcoins truly come back to life.
How the next phase likely unfolds:
If Bitcoin is indeed in a broader bear market, a relief rally with a lower high is still very likely.
Historically, those rallies often come with temporary rotation into altcoins.
In that scenario:
OTHERS/BTC bouncesTests the long-term downtrendThen stalls again
If BTC rolls over afterward and moves deeper into the bear (think $45K–$60K):
Altcoins weaken againOTHERS/BTC drifts back toward the channel lows
But that’s not the endgame.
The real move comes later
Once Bitcoin finally puts in a true bear market bottom and starts a new uptrend:
The OTHERS/BTC downtrend breaksRotation shifts decisively into altcoinsLeadership changes
That’s when altcoins take over again. This is simply the scenario the chart is pointing to right now.
Patience is still the edge.
#BTC #altcoins #CryptoAnalysis $BTC

We’re almost there. If $BTC drops below $76,000, MicroStrategy officially enters unrealized loss territory.
That level isn’t just psychological it’s structural. What makes this moment even more tense?
💥 Massive liquidations have already shaken the market
💥 Weak hands are gone
💥 Longs are exhausted, shorts are confident
💥 Liquidity is thin
Yet… price is still holding.
Meanwhile, a lot of sidelined capital can’t even act yet. Cash is parked in traditional markets, tied up chasing bond yields, waiting for the next trading session. All that money can do right now is watch.
This is how inflection points are formed.
Markets don’t reverse when everyone is ready.
They reverse when no one can react.
If $BTC holds this zone, today’s fear will be remembered as fuel.
If it breaks, the pain accelerates but so does the opportunity.
Either way, this is not a random dip.
This is a moment the market will talk about later.
Question is simple:
Are you watching… or positioning?
#Bitcoin #BTC #TrendingTopic

When noise dominates the lower timeframes, the Weekly (1W) chart of BTC/USDT is where real context lives. This is the timeframe that reflects cycle structure, long-term capital flow, and institutional behavior not short-term emotion.
A Familiar Cyclical Structure
If we step back, Bitcoin’s current structure looks remarkably similar to previous early-cycle phases.
In both 2020 and 2024, BTC followed the same sequence:
A relatively brief consolidation phaseA clean breakout above key resistanceSustained support above the Weekly MA50Followed by an impulsive upside expansion
The 2020 instance led into the full 2020–2021 bull market. The current setup mirrors that behavior closely, suggesting Bitcoin is not at the end of a cycle, but more likely in the early-to-mid stages of a new one.
MA50 Weekly: The Backbone of the Trend
Historically, Bitcoin’s macro trend has been simple:
Below MA50 Weekly → Bear market conditionsAbove MA50 Weekly → Bull market regime
Despite the recent correction, BTC continues to hold above the MA50 Weekly. Every downside move so far has behaved like a pullback, not a structural breakdown. This strongly supports a bull market continuation thesis.
Fibonacci Confirms a Healthy Pullback
Comparing this correction to the 2021–2022 cycle is revealing.
In the prior bear market, BTC dropped deep into Fib 1.618–2.0, confirming a macro trend reversal.The current pullback has only reached around Fib 1.0 (~$78k).Deeper Fib levels sit near $58k–$50k, which have not been tested.
In bull markets, corrections typically resolve between 0.5–1.618 Fib. From that perspective, the current move remains well within normal bull market behavior.
Key Levels to Watch
~$78k: Critical confluence support (Fib 1.0 + horizontal structure)Holding → bullish continuation remains intactLosing decisively → opens room for a deeper pullback, but not an automatic bear market
Cycle Expectations
Based on historical structure, Fibonacci extensions, and price behavior, a reasonable cycle target sits in the $110k–$125k range.
Importantly, bull markets are never linear. 20–30% corrections are common and often represent accumulation zones for larger players, not distribution tops.
Final Takeaway
The current chart does not signal a bear marketThis price action aligns with a bull market pullback, not a cycle topWeekly structure, MA50, and Fibonacci all support a bullish macro bias
Patience and capital management matter more than prediction here. Favor DCA and support-based entries, and avoid emotional shorts while the higher-timeframe trend remains constructive.
$BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #FedHoldsRates $ETH

One of the most historically reliable macro charts in crypto is the Bitcoin / Gold ratio.
This ratio has consistently marked the birth of every major Bitcoin bull cycle not the top, but the beginning.
Key historical moments:
2017 – BTC outperformed Gold → first major parabolic run2021 – Ratio broke up again → cycle expansion2024 – Price is once again pressing against the same long-term structure
Right now, the BTC/Gold ratio is sitting directly on a multi-year support/resistance trendline that has defined past regime shifts.
From a technical perspective:
The ratio has compressed into a critical decision zoneMomentum is flattening after a prolonged resetA confirmed upward rotation would signal capital rotation away from defensive assets and back into risk
This is not a short-term trading signal. It’s a macro environment indicator.
If Bitcoin begins to outperform Gold again, history suggests:
Risk appetite is returningLiquidity conditions are improvingLong-term accumulation phases are likely transitioning into expansion
However, confirmation matters. Until the ratio clearly breaks and holds above the trend, patience and risk management remain essential.
Markets don’t move on hope they move on confirmation.
Are you watching BTC/Gold as a macro signal this cycle?
What do you think happens next for $BTC if this ratio turns up again?
#Bitcoin #crypto #BTCVSGOLD $XAU

Let the data speak.
Liquidations by major crash events:
October 10th crash: $19.1B COVID crash (March 2020): $1.2BFTX collapse: $1.6BToday: $2.51B
This places today’s move as the 10th largest liquidation event in crypto history.
And that matters.
Why? Because liquidations of this scale don’t happen in “normal” markets.
They occur when leverage builds up aggressively while liquidity thins out creating sudden air pockets in price.
What this tells us:
Excessive long leverage was flushedForced selling amplified downside volatilityEmotional positioning dominated risk management
Importantly, large liquidation events often mark inflection points, not trends by themselves.
They can occur:
Near panic lowsDuring mid-cycle resetsOr as final leverage purges before structure stabilizes
What happens after the liquidation is more important than the liquidation itself.
If price stabilizes and reclaims key levels → this becomes a reset, not a breakdown.
If volatility expands further with weak bounces → risk remains elevated.
Smart traders don’t react to headlines.
They watch post-liquidation behavior, liquidity return, and structure rebuild.
Extreme fear clears leverage.
Structure decides the next trend.
What do you think this liquidation event represents a local reset or the start of something bigger?
$BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Liquidations $SOL

The narrative today is noisy.
Iran. The Fed. Macro panic. Headlines everywhere.
But when you strip the emotion out and look at the flow data, the explanation is far simpler and far more actionable.
This move is not driven by new fundamental information.
It’s driven by liquidity failure.
What actually pushed Bitcoin below $79,000?
Over the last ~12 hours, the market absorbed three distinct liquidation waves, totaling roughly $1.3B in forced deleveraging.
In an environment where liquidity has already been thin and fragmented, that kind of leverage unwind doesn’t get absorbed smoothly it creates price air pockets.
When leverage builds faster than spot demand:
Stops cluster tightlyOrder books thin outLiquidations cascade instead of clearing
Price doesn’t “move” it falls through levels.
Why the swings feel extreme
This market is currently dominated by herd behavior, not conviction:
Sentiment flips from euphoria to fear in hoursPositioning becomes crowded on both sidesDerivatives, not spot, are driving most moves
That combination makes volatility self-reinforcing. Once a liquidation wave starts, it feeds on itself until leverage is flushed.
What this environment is really offering
These conditions are painful but they’re also opportunity-rich.
Markets at emotional extremes tend to misprice risk. When fear spikes faster than fundamentals deteriorate, polarity appears between price and value.
That’s where disciplined traders thrive:
Not chasing narrativesNot reacting to headlinesBut exploiting emotion-driven dislocations
Today’s crash is not a mystery and not a macro shock. It’s a leverage reset in a low-liquidity environment. Understand that, and the move stops looking chaotic and starts looking tradable.
$BTC #bitcoin #CryptoMarket #liquidity #MarketCorrection $ETH

While the broader market has been breaking down short-term structures, $ETH (alongside $XRP ) stands out as one of the very few major assets still holding above a critical macro structural low. That alone is not bullish by default but it is informative.
From a market structure perspective, this tells us two things:
Downside pressure is being absorbed, not acceleratedETH has not lost its higher-timeframe support zone despite recent volatility. In past cycles, assets that refuse to break macro lows during market stress often become relative leaders once conditions stabilize.Timing alignment with Bitcoin is unusually clean
ETH’s current positioning lines up closely with Bitcoin’s expected next phase:BTC is flushing short-term excessETH is compressing, not collapsingThis kind of divergence typically appears late in corrective phases, not at the start of new bearish legs.
What this does not mean
It does not guarantee immediate upsideIt does not mean ETH is immune if BTC breaks key HTF support
But historically, when ETH holds structure while sentiment is deteriorating, it signals positioning, not panic.
As long as ETH continues to defend this macro base:
Risk remains asymmetric (limited downside vs potential upside)Any BTC stabilization increases the odds of ETH relative strength
If that level fails, the thesis is invalidated simple and objective.
Markets don’t telegraph reversals with excitement. They do it with quiet structural resilience. ETH is currently showing exactly that.
#Ethereum #MarketAnalysis #CryptoAnalysis $BTC

Bitcoin just experienced a sharp >9% overnight sell-off, decisively breaking all nearby short-term support levels. This was not a random wick or a simple stop-hunt price moved through support cleanly and with momentum, signaling a real shift in short-term market structure.
What the price action is telling us
Multiple supports failed without meaningful buyer reaction, showing weak defensive demand.The sell-off was accompanied by expanding volume, pointing to active distribution rather than passive liquidation.Bounce attempts during the dump were shallow and short-lived classic characteristics of a trend-continuation move, not a local bottom.
This is typically how markets behave after prolonged chop and repeated failed recoveries. Confidence erodes, positioning becomes crowded, and the resolution comes in the form of a fast, emotional flush. Leverage gets cleaned, late longs are forced out, and liquidity resets.
Importantly:
A support break does not automatically mean a full trend collapse.But it does confirm that short-term bias has flipped bearish, and premature bottom-fishing carries elevated risk.Post-dump phases are usually defined by high volatility and re-accumulation, not immediate V-shaped reversals.
A constructive scenario requires:
Price to stabilize and build a new baseSelling pressure to compressClear evidence of spot absorption rather than derivatives-led bounces.
Any sharp rebound that fails to reclaim broken levels should be treated cautiously those are often relief rallies, not trend reversals.
This is a phase where patience and risk management outperform prediction. Markets always reveal their next direction through structure first.
The real opportunity comes after emotions have been fully washed out.
$BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #crypto

Put the fear, frustration, and noise aside for a moment and zoom out.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, the altcoin market is quietly sending a message that feels almost illegal to say out loud right now: the long-term outlook is improving, even as sentiment sits near the floor.
Since the 2021 peak, altcoins have endured nearly five years of sustained decline and compression. That kind of time-based drawdown isn’t just about price it’s about exhausting participants. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
Momentum has died, narratives have collapsed, and participation has thinned out. Historically, that combination doesn’t mark the middle of a move it marks the late stages.
For those familiar with tools like the Remora indicator and who’ve tracked it across multiple cycles and assets, the current structure is hard to ignore. The behavior resembles accumulation, not distribution slow, grinding, and deeply uncomfortable.
The tragedy is where we are emotionally as a market. There are still countless bag holders hanging on by a thread, many of them close to capitulating or having already done so at what may be the worst possible location in the last half decade.
Forced selling due to fear, fatigue, or necessity almost always happens after the damage is done, not before opportunity appears.
That said, this is not a blanket endorsement of all altcoins.
This is a selective environment. The next expansion won’t lift everything equally. The real opportunity lies in:
Individual chartsClear accumulation rangesAssets that have already flushed excess leverage and weak hands.
If you’re not trapped in heavy red positions, and you’re patient enough to DCA, build slowly, and let time work for you this is the zone where long-term positioning starts to make sense.
It doesn’t feel good. It doesn’t feel obvious. And that’s exactly the point.
Markets don’t turn when the crowd feels confident they turn when conviction is gone.
#altcoins #MarketAnalysis #TrendingTopic $ETH $SOL

Everyone panics when Bitcoin does a liquidity sweep.
Zoom out.
Every major $BTC expansion cycle has followed the exact same script:
– A brutal flush that wipes out late longs
– Confidence completely shattered
– Silence… then quiet, relentless accumulation
That pain isn’t accidental. It’s structural.
Markets don’t reward certainty they reward positioning when conviction is gone. Liquidity needs to be taken, leverage needs to be cleared, narratives need to die. Only then does real upside become possible.
Bitcoin isn’t “breaking down.” It isn’t “failing the cycle.” It’s doing what it has always done before its strongest moves.
If it feels uncomfortable, confusing, even wrong you’re probably closer to the opportunity than you think.
Same playbook.
Different actors.
Same outcome.
The launchpad is built in pain.
#BTC #FedHoldsRates #TrendingTopic