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BTC Breaks Through $62K, ADA Surges 11%, 85% of Coins Turn Green — Weekend Market Is Here

Binance Research Daily Report | 2026-07-04

Brothers, good morning on Saturday. The broader market kicked off the weekend on a strong note.

BTC is above $62,656, up 2.28%. ETH $1,756, up 3.52%. 85% of coins turned green, with an average gain of +3.16%. The market is fully recovering.

Top 3 today

Cardano ADA

$0.1791, +11.31% in 24h, trading volume $736M. 7-day gain +20.84%, with the weekly chart showing a strong breakout. Cardano’s ecosystem is starting to show some movement—if it holds above $0.18, the next target is $0.20.

Hyperliquid HYPE

$71.19, +7.58%, trading volume $528M, market cap $15.84B. HYPE is unstoppable, continuing to trend higher across multiple consecutive trading days. It’s the one-of-a-kind presence in the on-chain derivatives sector—if the trend is there, don’t get off too easily.

Pepe PEPE

$0.00000277, +13.93%, trading volume $210M. Today’s top gainer. Meme-sector sentiment has reignited on PEPE. But meme coins are highly volatile—pay attention to position sizing.

Other Noteworthy

XRP $1.14, +5.21%, trading volume $1.8B, with news catalysts for Ripple. NEAR $2.05, +6.42%. SOL $82.43, +14.81% over 7 days—steady upward movement. BNB $573.53, +2.91%, following the market rebound.

MemeCore M is up +3.98% today, but still has +100% gains over 7 days—the kingly energy is still there.

In US Stocks

July 4 is Independence Day, and US markets are closed. NVDA closed Friday at $197.58, TSLA at $422. After the holiday, watch whether NVDA can break through the $200 level.

bStocks tokenized stocks (Binance listings): NVIDIA NVDAB, Tesla TSLAB, Micron MUB. Starting from $5 to invest, 24/7 trading.

Summary

BTC breaking through $62K is significant. Two straight days of closing gains, and expectations for ETF inflows are heating up.

Weekend market action usually has weaker volume, but today the sentiment is good. Keep your positions and enjoy the rebound.

#ADA $HYPE #PEPE

Top 10 GitHub Open-Source Gems Most Worth Following for Options Traders

Before writing, I checked the GitHub API one by one—stars, descriptions, and links were all verified. Feel free to use them.

1. QuantConnect/Lean (20,287 stars)
A full-featured algorithmic trading engine in both C#/Python. Supports options backtesting + live trading. The go-to framework for derivative strategy development.
https://github.com/QuantConnect/Lean

2. vollib (993 stars)
The industry standard for options pricing. Includes Black-Scholes and Black76 out of the box, backed by high-precision implementations originally from Peter Jaeckel.
https://github.com/vollib/vollib

3. py_vollib_vectorized (157 stars)
A vectorized version of vollib: feed it a pandas DataFrame directly and batch-calculate Greeks smoothly.
https://github.com/marcdemers/py_vollib_vectorized

4. optionlab (531 stars)
A lightweight options strategy evaluation library. Given an entry price and expiration date, generate P&L curves and profit/loss ranges with a single click—great for quickly inspecting a strategy’s profile day to day.
https://github.com/rgaveiga/optionlab

5. gflows (101 stars)
Intuitively visualize the exposure of the four main Greeks: delta/gamma/vanna/charm. Makes position risk attribution much easier.
https://github.com/aaguiar10/gflows

6. gex-tracker (198 stars)
Track market maker Gamma exposure. Know where the “Gamma wall” is thick and where pinning is more likely—gives you trading confidence.
https://github.com/Matteo-Ferrara/gex-tracker

7. yfinance (24,490 stars)
The easiest library for pulling US stock options chain data. No API key needed—get the entire chain in one line of code.
https://github.com/ranaroussi/yfinance

8. ccxt (43,155 stars)
A unified interface to access 100+ exchanges. Options data from Deribit and Binance can both be handled through this one library—no need to reinvent wheels for each exchange.
https://github.com/ccxt/ccxt

9. vnpy/vnpy (42,542 stars)
One of the most active open-source quant frameworks in China. Supports options CTA strategy backtesting and live trading, with a very mature community ecosystem.
https://github.com/vnpy/vnpy

10. backtrader (22,231 stars)
A classic backtesting framework. Not options-specific, but paired with vollib it’s great for strategy backtests—the backbone for validating win rates.
https://github.com/mementum/backtrader

Use the right tools, learn with fewer mistakes. Store them so you don’t lose.

Ice-Fire Island Options Notes｜2026-07-02

Spot Focus

BTC $59,982（+2.4%）｜ETH $1,609（+2.5%）

After it broke down yesterday, the defensive positioning did not continue to spread. BTC has returned to around the 60,000 psychological level, and ETH has also reclaimed 1,600. The market has shifted from “below-support heating up” back to “whether the rebound can be confirmed.” For the near term, the key levels remain BTC 60k and ETH 1,600.

Deribit Order Book

BTC volume PCR is 0.61, with CALL volume clearly dominant. Open interest PCR is 0.57, with OI still tilted toward the CALL side. The near-term futures basis is about -0.03%, almost flat. 10JUL ATM IV is around 41.3%, HV around 52.4%, and IV/HV is about 0.79. Option pricing is still noticeably lower than realized volatility; the market’s demand for CALLs in the rebound direction has started to pick up.

ETH volume PCR is 0.70, and CALL volume is dominant as well. Open interest PCR is 0.57, with long-dated OI tilted toward CALLs. The near-term basis is about -0.02%, with futures slightly at a discount. 10JUL ATM IV is around 52.1%, HV around 64.5%, and IV/HV about 0.81. ETH’s absolute volatility is still high, but relative to realized movement it is not expensive.

Where Trading Concentrates

BTC trading concentrates on upside CALLs. 31JUL 66000-C has about 821 contracts, 10JUL 61000-C about 698, 10JUL 63000-C about 649, and 10JUL 65000-C about 481. This suggests capital has started to bet on the continuation of the rebound above 60k. On the PUT side, concentration is mainly at 17JUL 56000-P (about 785 contracts) and 2JUL 57000-P (about 399), which is more like downside insurance rather than an active bearish main view.

ETH trading is also skewed toward CALLs. 10JUL 1700-C has about 6,564 contracts, the most prominent ETH contract today. 3JUL 1600-C is about 5,341, 2JUL 1600-C about 2,597, and 2JUL 1625-C about 2,241—indicating that both near-term Gamma above 1,600 and the upside space above 1,700 are being watched by funds. The PUT side concentrates in 28AUG 1450-P, 1300-P, 1200-P, and 2JUL 1575-P, more like tail protection in the mid-to-far term.

DVOL/IV Percentiles

For BTC, DVOL is 42.9 and the 30-day percentile is about 48%. 10JUL ATM IV is about 41.3% and HV about 52.4%. Volatility has returned to the mid-range and slightly lower area, but realized volatility is still high—so the “safety cushion” from simply selling volatility is not thick enough.

For ETH, DVOL is 56.9 and the 30-day percentile is about 42%. 10JUL ATM IV is about 52.1% and HV about 64.5%. ETH’s volatility percentile has actually fallen, but spot’s upside/downside responsiveness remains strong; if it continues to hold above 1,600, the CALL spread price advantage is more suitable than outright buying CALLs for controlling cost.

A Quick Take

After BTC returned near 60k, option trading shifted from PUT protection to probing with upside CALLs. Active trading in ETH 1600-C and 1700-C suggests that today’s market looks more like it is positioning for the continuation of the rebound, rather than pressing short.

Strategy to Observe Today

1. BTC: Slightly bullish on a rebound; express it with a Call Spread above 60k.

Structure: Buy BTC-10JUL26-61000-C, Sell BTC-10JUL26-63000-C.

Rationale: BTC spot has moved back close to 60,000, and trading in both 10JUL 61000-C and 63000-C is active, indicating funds are betting on short-term repairs above 60k. Using a 61000-C / 63000-C Call Spread lets you participate in the rebound while capping the maximum loss within the net premium, avoiding time-value erosion from a single-leg CALL.

Risk: If BTC cannot hold 60,000, or falls back below 59,000, this structure will quickly lose its momentum. If it’s only an intraday false breakout, you should not chase higher with additional size.

2. ETH: Watch for breakout continuation; follow the order flow above 1,600 with a Call Spread.

Structure: Buy ETH-10JUL26-1600-C, Sell ETH-10JUL26-1700-C.

Rationale: ETH has reclaimed 1,600. Near-term 1600-C trading is active, and 10JUL 1700-C trading exceeds 6,500 contracts, suggesting the market is pricing continuation rebound above 1,600. A 1600-C / 1700-C Call Spread can cover the upside repair space toward 1,700 while controlling the premium cost.

Risk: If ETH drops back to the lower end of the 1,575–1,600 range, CALL Gamma could weaken. If 1,600 is repeatedly lost, the strategy should switch from “breakout continuation” back to “range/volatility observation.”

Risk Disclaimer

Today is July 2. The 2JUL contract is entering expiry, and BTC 60,000 and ETH 1,600 remain the core near-term Gamma levels. Current IV is relatively low versus HV, but that does not mean directional risk is low. If the integer levels hold firm, the CALL side may continue to squeeze; if they do not hold, yesterday’s PUT protection book may become important again.

Not investment advice—just recording market structure.

Ice Fire Island Options Notes｜2026-07-01

Spot Focus

BTC $58,374（-2.6%）｜ETH $1,569（-2.2%）

The rebound yesterday did not continue. BTC fell back below 60,000, and spot moved into the 58,000–59,000 range. ETH also retreated from above 1,600, but its drawdown is slightly smaller than BTC’s. The market has switched from “breakout observation” back to the question of whether “downside protection is accelerating.”

Deribit Options Order Book

BTC volume PCR 0.95, with PUT and CALL remaining basically balanced; open-interest PCR 0.58, and OI is still skewed toward the CALL side. The near-term futures basis is around -0.03%, nearly at parity—slightly trading as a discount. 10JUL ATM IV is about 44.4%, HV about 51.6%, IV/HV about 0.86. Option pricing is still below realized volatility, though it has risen compared with yesterday.

ETH volume PCR 1.42, with PUT trades clearly dominating. Open-interest PCR 0.57; long-term OI is still biased to the CALL side. The near-term basis is about +0.01%, with futures near parity. 10JUL ATM IV is about 55.6%, HV about 64.9%, IV/HV about 0.86. ETH’s volatility level is still high in absolute terms, and the demand for short-dated PUTs has clearly warmed up.

Where Trading Concentrated

BTC trading shows a “tug-of-war at both ends.” On one side, 31JUL 70000-C has about 806 contracts and 17JUL 68000-C about 593—CALL buying for the farther upside is still present. On the other side, 31JUL 55000-P about 707 contracts, 3JUL 58000-P about 535, and 10JUL 55000-P about 515. This indicates that after breaking below 60k, downside protection in the 55k–58k area has started to become more important.

ETH has stronger PUT signals today. 1JUL 1525-P about 3,829 contracts, 3JUL 1450-P about 3,555, 1JUL 1575-P about 3,169, and 31JUL 1300-P about 2,699. At the same time, 1JUL 1600-C about 4,102 contracts and 1625-C about 3,671. This suggests ETH still has short-term rebound positioning, but the main line is more skewed toward pricing downside protection and tail risk.

DVOL/IV Percentiles

BTC DVOL 44.7, with the 30-day percentile around 58%. 10JUL ATM IV about 44.4%, HV about 51.6%. Volatility is not extremely high, but it has already lifted from the low. Whether to buy naked volatility depends on direction; the cushion for selling naked volatility is still not thick.

ETH DVOL 59.0, with the 30-day percentile around 61%. 10JUL ATM IV about 55.6%, HV about 64.9%. ETH volatility is in the mid-to-upper range. Since PUT volume has expanded noticeably, in the short term it is more suitable to observe the downside using a Put Spread that defines risk, rather than directly buying deep out-of-the-money PUTs naked.

A One-Sentence View

After BTC breaks below 60k into the 58k defensive zone, the market keeps the far-out CALL side while adding protection around 55k–58k. ETH’s volume PCR rises to 1.42, and short-dated PUT demand is more pronounced; the protective tone in ETH options today is heavier.

Today’s Strategy to Watch

1. BTC: Favor a defensive downside observation; use a Bear Put Spread to control cost.

Structure: Buy BTC-10JUL26-58000-P, sell BTC-10JUL26-55000-P.

Rationale: After BTC falls back below 60k, trading in 3JUL 58000-P, 10JUL 55000-P, and 31JUL 55000-P has all been relatively active, suggesting that the protection book is concentrating toward the 55k–58k region. Using a 58000-P / 55000-P Bear Put Spread expresses the risk of continuing to probe lower after breaking below 58k, while selling 55000-P reduces the net premium.

Risk: If BTC quickly reclaims 59,500–60,000, this structure can be pressured by the rebound and compression of time value. If it’s only a brief “fake break” below, the PUT side may give back.

2. ETH: Favor downside protection observation; follow the Put Spread concentration where PUT volume clusters.

Structure: Buy ETH-10JUL26-1575-P, sell ETH-10JUL26-1500-P.

Rationale: ETH spot has returned to around 1,570. Trading in 1JUL 1575-P, 1525-P, and 3JUL 1450-P is also quite concentrated, and 10JUL 1600-P has seen additional volume. Using a 1575-P / 1500-P Bear Put Spread can cover continuation risk after ETH breaks below 1,550, while avoiding the cost burden of a single-leg PUT when IV is mid-to-high.

Risk: If ETH regains 1,600 and short-dated CALL momentum from 1600-C and 1625-C continues, the PUT Spread will face pressure. This structure is more appropriate when observing weakness below 1,575; it is not suitable to chase after a quick rebound.

Risk Warning

Today is July 1. The 1JUL contract is entering expiry. Around BTC 58,000–59,000 and ETH 1,550–1,600, short-dated Gamma tug-of-war is likely to appear. Current IV is still below HV, but after PUT trading heats up, directional judgment is more important than judging volatility alone. If BTC reclaims 60k or ETH reclaims 1,600, you should promptly switch away from the downside-protection mindset to a range-bound or rebound structure.

Not investment advice—only recording market structure.

《Bet on the potential of Hypercall, thinking about investing in its token SYN? You might need to understand these things first》

1. Having a good outlook on Hypercall doesn’t mean blindly buying SYN right away

I’m bullish on Hypercall as a project.

The reason is straightforward: the Hyperliquid ecosystem already has spot, perps, and on-chain order matching, but it has long lacked a truly strong options layer. If the next step is to enable more complex trading, options are unavoidable.

Hypercall sits exactly at this position.

It’s not a typical DEX, nor a copycat front-end—it's building on-chain options within the Hyperliquid ecosystem. That narrative is pretty compelling.

But being bullish on Hypercall’s product potential, and buying SYN right now, are two different things.

SYN currently feels more like a governance and future economic-rights token of the Synapse ecosystem, not an already mature, live trading platform token.

Holding SYN doesn’t immediately give you lower trading fees, lower margin requirements, higher leverage, better fills, or faster placement in the queue.

2. SYN’s direct usefulness for trading is actually still quite weak right now

When many people see a platform token, they automatically think: hold the token to reduce fees, stake to upgrade, get trading rebates, fee sharing/dividends.

But when you map it onto Hypercall and SYN, you need to distinguish between “already exists” and “might exist in the future.”

Hypercall is still in Mainnet Alpha, and trading fees themselves are currently 0. So even if there were future fee discounts, there wouldn’t be much practical advantage today.

More importantly, Hypercall’s current biggest bottleneck isn’t fees—it’s the order book.

For example, SPCX options: the bid-ask spread is large, and the quote structure for some strikes feels quite uncomfortable. Say you want to set up a basic bear call spread—sell a call at a lower strike and buy a call at a higher strike—but you may find that the premium you receive from the sold leg isn’t enough to pay for the protective leg.

This isn’t a problem of fees being too high.

It’s a problem that the market quality hasn’t matured yet.

On top of that, the farthest available expiration is currently only around 31 days. With options like covered calls, protective puts, calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, and longer-term directional calls, these more mature strategies aren’t really easy to deploy.

So what ordinary traders should focus on now isn’t whether there’s SYN—it’s Hypercall’s liquidity, spreads, expiries, mark price, combo orders, and the margin system.

3. SYN’s real imagination is in the protocol economy in the future

Does SYN have value?

Yes.

But its value isn’t “hold today, trade becomes stronger today.”

Instead, it’s: “If Hypercall really takes off, can SYN capture the growth it generates?”

According to the official documentation, SYN is the governance token of the Synapse ecosystem. In the future, it may be involved in protocol governance, fee sharing, keeper staking, and other mechanisms.

If Hypercall’s trading volume rises, the protocol starts collecting fees, market-making incentives are improved, and the liquidation/settlement infrastructure requires staked participation—then SYN could potentially evolve from an ecosystem narrative token into a real economic-rights entry point.

Market-making incentives are especially key.

The hardest part for an options exchange isn’t launching new contracts—it’s building the order book. A mature options market needs continuous quoting, sufficient depth, a reasonable IV surface, consistent strike-price quoting across legs, and complete structure across expiries.

If Hypercall in the future uses SYN to incentivize high-quality market makers—not just to boost volume with simple rewards—then SYN could genuinely give back to the trading experience.

That’s the flywheel worth expecting:

The product attracts traders.
Trading volume attracts market makers.
SYN incentives improve market-making quality.
Better order books attract more real trading.
Protocol revenue and governance value then flow back to SYN.

4. Before buying SYN, watch three signals first

First, see whether Hypercall’s order book quality is improving.

Don’t only look at how many assets/contracts are listed. Check whether the bid/ask spread is narrowing, whether at-the-money and out-of-the-money options have continuous quotes, and whether combo strategies can be executed normally.

Second, see whether expiries are getting longer.

Options within 31 days are mostly for short-term, event-driven, and gamma-type trading. A truly mature options market needs at least 60 days, 90 days, 180 days, and even longer expiries.

Assets like SPCX, which carry the “SpaceX private equity” imagination, shouldn’t have only short-dated options by nature. It needs medium- to long-dated options to support larger capital and more complex strategies.

Third, see whether SYN’s economic mechanisms are actually implemented.

Is there fee sharing?
Is there staking?
Is there market-making incentive?
Is there builder allocation/revenue sharing?
Are key governance trading parameters defined?
Is SYN used to improve market quality—not just to manufacture an airdrop expectation?

My view is simple:

Hypercall is an options foundation infrastructure worth tracking.

SYN is an ecosystem token with potential upside.

But buying SYN right now is more about the future than today’s trading value.

If you’re a trader, look first at the order book.

If you’re an investor, then look at SYN.

If Hypercall can later narrow spreads, extend expiries, and make combo strategies work smoothly—and then integrate SYN into real fee capture and liquidity incentives—then this story can truly turn from an ecosystem concept into an exchange flywheel.

Ice Fire Island Options Notes｜2026-06-30

Spot Focus

BTC $59,732（+1.2%）｜ETH $1,596（+2.6%）

Spot is slightly repairing, with ETH showing noticeably stronger rebound resilience than BTC. BTC is still hugging the 60,000 integer level, while ETH is once again pressing toward 1,600. The tape has shifted from “defend 60k” to “watch whether it can reclaim key integer levels.”

Deribit Order Book

BTC trading-volume PCR is 0.85, with CALL trades slightly leading. Position PCR is 0.58, so overall OI is still skewed toward the CALL side. BTC near-term basis is about +0.006%, futures are nearly at fair value, indicating there is no clear directional premium between spot and futures. For 10JUL ATM, IV is about 41.2%, HV about 51.5%, and IV/HV about 0.80—option pricing is still relatively low versus realized volatility.

ETH trading-volume PCR is 0.96, with PUT and CALL roughly balanced. Position PCR is also 0.58, and OI likewise leans toward CALL. ETH near-term basis is about -0.05%: slightly at a discount, but the magnitude is small. For 10JUL ATM, IV is about 55.0%, HV about 66.3%, and IV/HV about 0.83—absolute ETH volatility is higher, but relative to realized volatility it is not really expensive.

Where Trading Concentrates

BTC trades concentrate in upside CALLs and short-dated strikes around 60k. 31JUL 70000-C has about 1,199 contracts, 2JUL 60500-C about 722, 3JUL 60500-C about 704, and 10JUL 66000-C about 632—suggesting rebound funds are starting to buy space above. On the PUT side, activity mainly concentrates in 30JUN 59500-P and 60000-P, as well as 3JUL 58000-P; below 60k there is still protective positioning.

ETH trading is more clearly centered around 1,600. 30JUN 1600-C is about 8,964 contracts—the most prominent short-dated CALL today. 10JUL 1700-C has about 5,362 contracts, implying upside elasticity is being bet on as well. But the PUT side is not weak: 1JUL 1400-P about 4,322, 30JUN 1525-P about 4,182, and 1575-P about 2,175. In other words, ETH is not one-sidedly bullish; it is “a 1,600 breakout plus tail protection below” existing at the same time.

DVOL/IV Percentiles

BTC DVOL is 43.2, with a 30-day percentile of about 52%. For 10JUL ATM IV is about 41.2%, HV about 51.5%. Volatility is around the middle, but below realized volatility—there is not much of a safety cushion for naked short vol.

ETH DVOL is 58.1, with a 30-day percentile of about 52%. For 10JUL ATM IV is about 55.0%, HV about 66.3%. ETH volatility is in the middle-to-normal range, but ETH realized volatility is still higher; it suits expressing direction with a spread structure, not selling options without protection.

A Quick Take

BTC funds are starting to rotate from defending 60k toward probing upside CALLs, but 60k remains the core dividing line. ETH’s short-dated CALL trading around 1,600 is extremely heavy; if it holds above 1,600, ETH’s rebound elasticity should be more pronounced than BTC’s.

Today’s Strategy to Watch

1. BTC: Slightly favor a mild rebound view; use a Call Spread to control time-value decay.

Structure: buy BTC-10JUL26-61000-C, sell BTC-10JUL26-66000-C.

Logic: BTC spot is near 60k, and 60500-C (short-dated) plus 66000-C (mid-to-short dated) are actively traded—suggesting funds are pricing in a repair/upside space above 60k. Choosing a 61000-C / 66000-C Call Spread, instead of buying a single-leg CALL outright, better controls the option premium cost. If BTC regains 60,000 and pushes toward/above 61,000, this structure should be a better fit.

Risk: If BTC falls back below 59,000 and stays range-bound, the structure will be eroded by time value. If it’s only an intraday false breakout, don’t chase with additional sizing.

2. ETH: Slightly favor observing for breakout continuation; use a Call Spread to express upside elasticity above 1,600.

Structure: buy ETH-10JUL26-1600-C, sell ETH-10JUL26-1700-C.

Logic: ETH’s spot strength is today stronger than BTC’s. The 30JUN 1600-C has extremely heavy volume, and 10JUL 1700-C also has sizable trades—indicating the market is pricing around a 1,600 breakout and upside room above 1,700. Using a 1600-C / 1700-C Call Spread lets you participate in ETH’s upside rebound elasticity while capping the maximum loss to the net premium.

Risk: If ETH cannot hold above 1,600, or quickly drops back below 1,575, CALL-side Gamma may weaken. This structure is suitable for observation after breakout confirmation, not for hard holding when 1,600 repeatedly fails.

Risk Warning

Today is June 30. The 30JUN contracts are entering expiration, so around BTC 60,000 and ETH 1,600 short-dated Gamma pinches (tug-of-war) are likely to appear. Currently IV is not expensive relative to HV, so simply selling volatility is not advantageous. Strategically, spreads with defined risk are more suitable to express direction. If the spot breakout fails, promptly shift the focus from upside CALLs back to downside PUT protection.

Not investment advice—just recording market structure.

Deribit x SignalPlus “Island Isolation Plan” Trading Competition: a 600K USDC prize pool, plus a Finnish island getaway, a Rolex watch, a Bali trip, and a wide variety of other prizes. As long as you trade, you have a chance to win big.

During the competition, trade to earn a share of the prize pool—double the rewards.

I’ve assembled the “Ice & Fire Island Team,” and I’ll be the team captain. Since the Island Isolation Plan works so well with the Ice & Fire Island community, islanders—come play with us!

Join the Ice & Fire Island Team to chat about strategies and run live trading (real accounts). Plus, we’ll also be giving away various exclusive quantitative tools.

Important note: To participate, you must register a Deribit exchange account and complete KYC. Only trades made on the SignalPlus platform by logging in with your Deribit account will be considered valid.

Team entrance: first come, first served—call on your fellow islanders to board the ship together 👇
Team contest invitation link:
https://t.signalplus.com/deribitislandcompetition?o=teamInvite&t=17253669&r=7PGC0Q

Every day’s trades come with a raffle—everyone is welcome to join in and grab some rewards.

hypercall tokens are on Binance.
syn$SYN

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes｜2026-06-29

BTC $59,190, ETH $1,559.35, ratio at 38.0x. ETH is weaker; BTC is consolidating.

Order book: BTC PCR 1.13. Put volume is slightly higher but not extreme. ETH PCR 0.95 is balanced. Basis is steady (BTC +0.10%, ETH -0.03%); funding shows no clear directional preference.

Expiry trades concentrated today: ETH 29JUN 1575-C traded 3,934 contracts, 1600-C traded 3,439 contracts. Funds are locked in around the 1,560 big-expiry game. 3JUL 1450-P traded 2,528 contracts, OI 4,521. Next week’s ETH downside protection demand is clear.

OI highlights: ETH 25DEC 3200-C OI 67,277 contracts; 2200-C OI 52,765. Deep out-of-the-money calls are piled up; the believers haven’t dispersed. BTC 25DEC 80000-C OI 6,608 contracts—direction aligns but the quantity is about 10x smaller.

DVOL: BTC 48.1, ETH 61.4—both near recent highs. However, HV is higher (BTC 51.9% / ETH 66.1%), and IV is relatively cheap, so there’s limited room for vol to surge.

View: PCR leans put, but basis is calm; it’s a convergence before a directional decision. Heavy ETH expiry trading creates short-term pulses, but the long calls pile suggests the medium-term outlook hasn’t changed. Consolidation is slightly convergent—watch for direction selection around the 3JUL/4JUL expiry period.

Strategy:
1. BTC: 3JUL 55000-P added 601 contracts. If PCR keeps rising to 1.2+, put crowding = a rebound signal before the move.
2. ETH: 30JUN 1300-P (IV 135%) tail put premium. If ETH holds above 1,550, IV may contract quickly.
3. With the 38.0x ratio, if ETH continues to underperform, consider a pairing approach.

Risks: Don’t chase vol when DVOL is high (for sellers). More contracts expiring increases gamma amplification; wait for a directional breakout.

5 Codex tips you can use right away👇

① Create an AGENTS.md so you don’t have to explain every time
Think of it as a handbook for how our team works.
For example: how to run tests, which folders must not be touched, and what code style standards to follow.
Write it once, and Codex will know what to do afterward—so you don’t have to keep repeating yourself.

② Before changing code, make it explain clearly first
Don’t jump in with “Help me fix this bug.”
Change it to: “First review this code, tell me where the bug might be, and which files you plan to modify—list them out.”
It’s like doctors checking a CT scan before surgery—diagnose first, then operate.

③ Split one job into several parts—and do them at the same time
This one is easy to overlook, but it saves the most time👇

For example:
- You need to write three reports: Report A, Report B, and Report C
- Beginner approach: have Codex finish A, then B, then C—one by one, slow
- Pro approach: open three “subtasks” at the same time, and write all three reports in parallel—much faster

Codex can dispatch multiple “minions” to work concurrently.
For example, if you’re updating an app: one person updates the login page, one fixes a database bug, and one writes the API documentation.
As long as the three tasks don’t depend on each other, they can run in parallel.

④ Turn repeated work into reusable templates (skills)
Do you repeatedly make the same kind of change (like adding a button or adjusting a list style)?
Have Codex remember that pattern, and next time it’s just a single sentence to get it done.
No need to re-describe the whole thing every time.

⑤ When assigning tasks, just make these four things clear:
- What the goal is
- Which files are involved (tag the files with @)
- Any constraints or rules
- How completion is measured

Don’t write a short essay—don’t be long-winded. Just be clear.

Final red line:
Review the password, payment, and login-related code it writes again yourself.
Even if the AI is great, security shouldn’t rely entirely on it.

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes｜2026-06-28

BTC $60,164 | ETH $1,575.84 | Ratio 38.18x

The weekend market is thin with reduced volume. BTC is consolidating tightly around 60K, while ETH is under pressure near 1,575. The absolute spot prices aren’t low, but the options side is sending quite a few signals.

Deribit Order Book:
BTC PCR 2.20, ETH PCR 1.40. Extremely put-crowded. Under the logic of an extreme reverse indicator, puts piled up can be a tell for a rebound—especially with BTC near-term put IV already approaching 45%. The cost-effectiveness of adding more puts is falling.

Near-month basis is almost at par (BTC 1JUL26 basis +0.01%, ETH 30JUN26 basis -0.04%). The futures side shows no directional signal.

Unusual large ETH orders: ETH-3JUL26-2100-C×400 (IV 87%), ETH-29JUN26-1750-C×400 — deep out-of-the-money calls expiring tomorrow, a tiny wager, not very meaningful for inference.

OI Concentration Areas Worth Watching:
On the BTC side: 25DEC26-120000-C holds 6,006 contracts, 25DEC26-80000-C holds 6,604, 31JUL26-80000-C holds 7,001. It’s a belief-based positioning from three months to two years out—retail and institutions are firmly building for a BTC bull market.

On the ETH side, even more extreme: 25DEC26-3200-C holds 67,276 contracts, 25DEC26-2200-C holds 52,765. Such a large concentration in 2x–3x out-of-the-money calls suggests extremely strong long-term “value dip buying” appetite after ETH’s selloff.

IV Pricing:
BTC DVOL 44.8 (30-day 60th percentile), ETH DVOL 59.7 (67th percentile). But BTC 1d HV=51.7 and ETH 1d HV=65.8. DVOL is below HV—implied volatility remains under realized volatility. Vol still looks cheap, leaving a safety margin for vol-buying strategies.

Thesis:
1. BTC—IV at a low level + PCR at an extreme. Watch for a short-term rebound opportunity. A potential Gamma squeeze after crowded Long Puts.
2. ETH—DVOL near 60 is still below HV. Selling vol is unfavorable. Focus on the call price spread (e.g., 31JUL26-1600/1800-C) to go long Gamma.
3. With the ratio at 38.18x, ETH vs BTC is at a historical low. The huge OI in far out-of-the-money calls on the ETH options side indicates many leveraged longs are waiting for a rebound—worth tracking the ETH/BTC pair.

Risks: Weekend liquidity is thin. Put crowding may kill off a wave first before rebounding. As you approach month-end and quarter-end, there is pressure on tightening funding conditions.