Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below).
Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it.
Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏
Nevertheless yesterday's target at Monthly 20sma as well as dip target at 85260 achieved ✅✅
I don't know what to expect from higher timeframe. On lower it seems that we may see repeat of the same pattern - re-test of 88.9k and another dip to cover some gaps there
Maybe there will be breakout of 89k, maybe not. I'm taking a pause till next week as this week's chop chop got me very tired.
For today's review adjusted Key Levels for lower timeframe bullish pullback. Refer to previous review for zone to watch in case everything decide to dump again.
Won't try to forecast anything, but if #Ethereum manage to grow above yesterday's high, it will be a very bullish signal. Afterall yesterday was extreme volatility day that liquidated lots of leverage traders on both sides. If market decide that this zone is cleared, and didn't push it lwoer, it can only push it higher towards Monthly 20sma to find more liquidity there.
In 20 minutes Inflation Rates and CPI, so expect more volatility.
I've marked main $BTC levels to watch PA. First move going up, then we will see. Yesterday dump left several gaps on it's way, so those gaps will be revisited sooner or later. And the main one is within Monthly 20sma at ~88910.
Day/week charts look bearish. Pray for fast recovery. Otherwise next leg down to ~84.7k / ~83.4k is inevitable continuation.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 94555, 93550, 85073, 83400, 80600.
In 20 minutes Inflation Rates and CPI, so expect more volatility.
I've marked main $BTC levels to watch PA. First move going up, then we will see. Yesterday dump left several gaps on it's way, so those gaps will be revisited sooner or later. And the main one is within Monthly 20sma at ~88910.
Day/week charts look bearish. Pray for fast recovery. Otherwise next leg down to ~84.7k / ~83.4k is inevitable continuation.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 94555, 93550, 85073, 83400, 80600.
Crucial level to turn that **** into bullish is acceptance above Monthly 20sma at 3070. If that doesn't happen, for the next leg down targeting at least 2840
Today, the same Year VAL acts as resistance again. Either we break higher toward ~88900, or we get another leg down to ~84.7k / ~83.4k (the latter holds heavy liquidity).
Stock indices also hint at a short-term bounce after four days of correction. That’s a near-term view only - no guessing beyond that.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 94555, 93550, 85073, 83400, 80600.
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Yesterday’s dip printed solid volume at the last key level I marked. That opens the door for a bounce back toward the developing Year VAL, and possibly higher into the Monthly 20SMA.
Higher timeframes still show nothing bullish, so another leg down remains on the table. A small liquidity pool sits near ~84.7k, with a larger one around ~83k — a realistic target for this week if selling continues.
For a bullish reversal, $BTC must find acceptance above 90k. Until then, any bounce is treated as a bearish re-test.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 93550, 83250
Crucial level to turn that **** into bullish is acceptance above Monthly 20sma at 3070. If that doesn't happen, for the next leg down targeting at least 2840
Yesterday’s dip printed solid volume at the last key level I marked. That opens the door for a bounce back toward the developing Year VAL, and possibly higher into the Monthly 20SMA.
Higher timeframes still show nothing bullish, so another leg down remains on the table. A small liquidity pool sits near ~84.7k, with a larger one around ~83k — a realistic target for this week if selling continues.
For a bullish reversal, $BTC must find acceptance above 90k. Until then, any bounce is treated as a bearish re-test.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 93550, 83250
Fear & Greed is back at 16. The market is scared that stock indices may continue selling after Friday’s bearish close. Bulls must reclaim the November close at 90320 to prevent another breakdown. If they do, $BTC should fill the gap above. If not, risk of a sharp dump increases.
Not much time left for this rescue mission. BTC rising wedge after 2 months of downtrend is a very bearish pattern. It doesn't have guaranteed result, but in majority of cases it resolves downside.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 93550, 86000, 83250
I keep on scalping every bounce - yesterday's closed at ~92.9k, so now will be looking for a new entry. And the same zone around 91.5k should be the one to watch on the next dip.
Bullish plan: breakout entry above 93550. These setups don’t always work, but after so many failed attempts above 94k, odds of a clean break are improving.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 93550, 86000, 83250
My last long was roundtripped to SL at breakeven. $BTC don't want to breakout, regardless the news or whatever. Considering PA we may count on dips towards developing Year VAL around 87740 and liquidity below.
Before that might bounce to ~91.4-91.5k (last chance to hold for November close)
What happens when price hit ~87k hard to predict. Can break down this rising wedge (bearish pattern within downtrend) and collapse back to ~86/83k. This is yet in theory. Trading it intraday, so plans can change very fast.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 93550, 86000, 83250
Yesterday’s move added some bullish tone, even though the Daily chart is still far from bullish. $BTC bounce from Year VAL makes the next target at Year VWAP (~99940) a realistic continuation.
Some supportive volume sits under 91100, but that applies only to a bullish continuation. Major liquidity hunts make sense below 87300 and above yesterday’s high.
📈 Bounce from ~91k opens paths toward 95.2k / 96k / 97.6k / 99.4k / 102k 📉 Failure to hold that level brings back the bearish outlook toward 88k / 85.7k
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 93550, 86000, 83250
Third $BTC attempt to breakout 94k and firth for 93k
Crucial levels for the next 4-8 hours!
Wise Analyze
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$BTC have cleared liquidity above 94200 ✅
Most probably within this night price will wick above 95.2k and after that: * either grow higher towards the next liquidity pool around 97100 * or go for re-test of breakout level, which is the same as my LTF red dot ~91700 skipped on the way up
Most probably within this night price will wick above 95.2k and after that: * either grow higher towards the next liquidity pool around 97100 * or go for re-test of breakout level, which is the same as my LTF red dot ~91700 skipped on the way up
$ETH moves around Monthly 20sma. In general that chart looks prone for breakout and re-test of 2024 close (3336) at some point. But there is also a chance for a dip to ~2850. What happens first, hard to predict, but these two levels mark out potential targets for TP and entries, that worth waiting for, while ignoring the rest of PA.
Less trustworthy target for the dips is at November close at 2990 - it might give enough volume to start swing up, but that bounce can easily be stopped at Monthly 20sma (3071) and pushed lower. So that one is for lower timeframe scalping.
Today I've added one more zone to watch on lower timeframes at ~91690. If hit, that will liquidate some shorts, but impossible to predict if they will be used for liquidity to pump higher or to exit longs. So higher timeframe situation remains the same and major levels I've indicated yesterday stay untouched.
📈 High liquidity above ~94200. Next above ~97100. And huge liquidation above 102000. One of those levels can form the top of bullish swing (if it happens).
📉 Daily/Weekly 20sma is the nearest dynamic level to watch, but since BTC is still in consolidation around that zone, it can easily dump it lower to 85700 / 83000.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 94185, 86000, 83250
Now look. Very simple. US session in ~1 hour will either try to push $BTC towards 2024 close again, or let it dump.
📈 If they push, just watch the move on breakout above ~94200. First liquidity pool there, next above ~97100. And huge liquidation above 102000. One of those levels will form the top of that bounce swing.
📉 If they start to dump, Daily/Weekly 20sma will be the nearest dynamic level to watch, but since BTC is still in consolidation around that zone, they can easily dump it lower to 85700 / 83000.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 94185, 86000, 83250
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
A quick update for shorter timeframes, since situation haven't changed much. Updating key levels (for LTF) and liquidation dots on the chart.
On Wednesday I've taken long, but yesterday saw increased potential for the dip and closed it. My vision of future came true and $BTC started pulling back. Now interesting period to watch. Most interesting levels for bullish reaction are Daily 20sma at ~89870 and developing Year VAL at ~87833. These levels correlate with liquidations and therefore may provide liquidity for the bounce.
If those zones won't satisfy the needs, moving towards the dump scenario that can easily cover anything under 86k.
Finally, unexpected bullish scenario - price pumps and breakout above ~92680 that may lead to return back to 93.5-94.2k with following attempt to breakout that bull flag. But stop for that entry shouldn't be higher than 90.8k
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, D/W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 83250
On Wednesday I've taken long, but yesterday saw increased potential for the dip and closed it. My vision of future came true and $BTC started pulling back. Now interesting period to watch. Most interesting levels for bullish reaction are Daily 20sma at ~89870 and developing Year VAL at ~87833. These levels correlate with liquidations and therefore may provide liquidity for the bounce.
If those zones won't satisfy the needs, moving towards the dump scenario that can easily cover anything under 86k.
Finally, unexpected bullish scenario - price pumps and breakout above ~92680 that may lead to return back to 93.5-94.2k with following attempt to breakout that bull flag. But stop for that entry shouldn't be higher than 90.8k
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: 126208, 117875, 111565, D/W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP/VAL, 96012, 83250