菲越

Recently, I have been relatively free in smart contract development at work, and I want to try to consistently publish K-line technical analysis and quick reports on the cryptocurrency market. I will also share more on-chain information afterwards.

This time, the options expiring on December 26, with a value of approximately 1.33 billion USD and the number $BTC , have significant reference meaning. According to Decrypt, the 'maximum pain point' of the open interest is concentrated between 100k–102k. This type of structure has historically sometimes had a phased impact on prices, but it does not guarantee results.

Considering the current situation, the BTC price remains significantly below this range, so this options distribution does not directly drive the current market but serves more as a medium-term contextual reference. The short-term trend still mainly depends on changes in trading volume and risk appetite.

#BTC走势分析

🌧️ A tumultuous day! December 17 K-line UTC 23:38, half an hour until closing: 👇👇

☕️ Today's news from Decrypt: This week, there will be a large-scale expiration of stock index and stock options contracts in the traditional financial market (the so-called 'quadruple witching day'), which may indirectly affect the price fluctuations of high-risk assets like Bitcoin by impacting the risk appetite of the stock market. ⚡️⚡️

📉 From the daily line at 12/17 UTC 23:38, BTC closed at 86,046, with the price overall running below EMA7/EMA25, and close to the lower Bollinger Band. The RSI remains in a weak range, and the MACD maintains negative values. Structurally, it is still dominated by weakness, but it has entered a segment where a technical rebound may occur. The hourly line shows that in the past 24 hours, there was a rapid rise to MA200 (about 89.7k) before being significantly pushed back down, indicating that selling pressure above remains concentrated.

👀 Short-term focus:
The key areas to watch below are the 85-85.2K range. Whether this range provides effective support will directly affect the short-term direction. If support holds, the price may first return to around 86,700, then observe the reaction near 87,800 (hourly EMA99). If this range is broken, short-term downward risk will increase.

⛽️ Everyone, keep it up! Hang in there!

Note: The crypto market is highly volatile, and predictions are not guaranteed to be accurate. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

🔥🔥 The asset management scale of approximately $4 trillion #JPMorgan has launched its first tokenized money market fund on Ethereum! This good news indicates that core products of traditional finance are directly on-chain, with real funds participating!

➡️ Core assets on-chain: Money market funds are one of the most fundamental and largest low-risk assets in traditional finance, and going on-chain means that on-chain finance has institutional usability.

➡️ Public chain selected: The product is deployed on the Ethereum public chain, rather than a private institutional chain, indicating that public chains are becoming a realistic option for institutional-level financial issuance and settlement.

➡️ RWA enters the implementation phase: From BlackRock, Franklin Templeton to JPM, asset tokenization is forming a replicable path, rather than a one-off attempt.

➡️ Positive for stablecoins and on-chain capital efficiency: Providing compliant and yield-generating on-chain avenues for stablecoins reduces the barriers for institutions to enter on-chain finance.

#加密市场动态

🧐 Option perspective on Christmas period $BTC price👇🏼👇🏼

➡️ Derive website market update on 12/2: liquidity is tightening, market confidence is dropping.📉 Mentioned 84k and 80k Put options expiring on 12/26 are clearly being piled up. At that time, the reaction in the options market was very direct: the market started to frantically buy down insurance.

❓ What does it mean → Many people started to consider breaking below 80k by the end of the year as a tail risk that needs to be priced.

➡️ However, based on the latest data (as of 12/14), the market is clearly not as exaggerated as it was then:
- ATM IV for 12/26 and 1/2 has fallen back to ~42–43%, which is actually lower than 45–49% during 12/15–12/19.
- The 25Δ skew has also recovered from extreme panic: the short end (1–3 days) is about -1.6 to -3.3, and the mid-term (7–21 days) remains slightly negative but stable at -4.8 to -5.8.

❓ What does it mean → The market is still defending against downturns, but not as if it expects an “immediate explosion” like on 12/2. The main scenario for the holiday market is relatively calm, but tail insurance is still very expensive.

➡️ Looking at the BTC movements over the past two days, it actually corroborates Derive’s caution: the market is cautious, upward momentum is weak, and it is easily influenced by selling pressure. It has not returned to a strong one-sided rhythm, but rather seems to be waiting for liquidity and events.

Note:
- Buying Put: means betting on a price decline
- You can check out my other posts on options IV and Skew
- The above is just public data analysis and does not constitute financial advice

#BTC走势分析

🤔 Why has it dropped so quickly these past few days?? Here's a summary:

➡️ 12/11 (Fed's rate cut led to weakness): Decrypt described it as a typical "sell the fact" - the good news was priced in ahead of time, and once it was realized, it was actually cashed in. At the same time, concerns about sticky inflation and limited future rate cut space among macro variables weighed on risk assets.

➡️ 12/12 (Tech/AI sentiment dragged down): CoinDesk believes that AI-related concerns are dragging down the Nasdaq and cryptocurrencies, and in such market conditions, BTC is often treated as a high beta risk asset and sold off.

➡️ 12/14 (Weekend liquidity + waiting for macro data): CoinDesk mentioned "low liquidity, weak altcoins, and approaching key US/global data releases," causing traders to prefer reducing positions first.

➡️ 12/15 (Accelerated drop after breaking key levels): Barron’s reported that BTC briefly reached about $85,774 that day, dropping approximately 3.2% in 24 hours, and emphasized the background of "market sentiment being negative post-weekend and funds withdrawing from risk assets."

➡️ Macro spillover (BoJ's hawkish expectations): Economic Times also linked the "BoJ's hawkish signals" to the volatility of risk assets (such messages can easily trigger global deleveraging).

Information sources: Decrypt, Coindesk, Barron's, and Economic Times 🙏

$BTC 12/15 Daily K-line, half an hour before the market closes: 👇👇

☕ The trend of risk aversion retreating in the last two to three days has led to a downward trend, with short-term weakness but nearing the oversold rebound zone. 1 hour: RSI(14) is slightly oversold, but the price is still below the hourly EMA group => A rebound will occur, but it is likely to encounter resistance.

👀 48-72 hour focus: Pay attention to whether 85.1k-86k and 86.74k (daily Bollinger lower band) can recover. First, look at 88k (near the hourly Bollinger middle band) and then 90k-91.3k (an area of concentrated emotions and short sellers' stop losses). At the same time, observe changes in net inflow to exchanges, ETF flows, and whether OI has increased or leveraged.

#加密市场观察 #BTC走势分析

Note: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and predictions are not guaranteed to be accurate. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

$BTC This weekend is a bit turbulent, prices are adjusting, just like the weather it's gray ☁️ but it was expected.

How might the price go at the end of the year $BTC ??👇🏼👇🏼

Looking at the IV and skew until December 14, $BTC appears to be structurally weak in the two weeks before the end of the year, rather than about to rise or fall dramatically.

1️⃣ Volatility (IV): Holiday Trading

The implied volatility (ATM IV) for options in the Christmas week is actually lower (around 42–43%), indicating that the market does not believe there will be a significant trending market during Christmas week.

2️⃣ Skew: Everyone is hedging against a downturn, rather than betting on an increase

Although it seems overall calm, put options are clearly more expensive in the 7–21 day time window (skew between -4.8 and -5.8), especially for the downward direction expiring on December 26, which has been significantly marked up. This indicates that capital is buying insurance in advance for the possibility of a downturn.

This does not mean the market will definitely fall, but it implies:
👉 If there is a decline, it is more likely to be a rapid drop, rather than a slow decline;
👉 Conversely, the market is not seriously betting on a sudden rise at the end of the year.

Note: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and predictions are not guaranteed to be accurate. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

Data Source: Deribit and amberdata

📈【Market Sentiment Indicator】From IV to skew: The True Way Institutional Traders View the Market!

This morning, I took some time to organize a chart illustrating market sentiment and structure from the perspectives of IV and skew, along with corresponding strategies of traders, reflecting future market trends.

📌 Market Sentiment and Structure from IV and Skew Perspectives

How to read the chart? 👇🏼

🌟 IV Magnitude
- Contango: Short-term low, long-term high = Market calm.
- Backwardation: Short-term high, long-term low = Market panic / frenzy.

🌟 Skew Direction
- Negative Skew: Puts are more expensive = Market fears a drop.
- Positive Skew: Calls are more expensive = Market fears missing out (FOMO).

👀 This weekend, I will focus on the IV and skew of the end of year $BTC based on the data.

If you like it, you can support by liking or following! 🙏🏻

#加密市场观察 #BTC走势分析

$BTC This week's rhythm is to kill a segment first, then repair, and then hold steady: the price rebounded from the lower Bollinger band (87k) and then oscillated back to the middle Bollinger band (90k) area. The current price on the 13th is approximately 90,579. Momentum is in repair (MACD bar +632), but trend pressure remains (the price is still under EMA7 / EMA25, RSI 45.43 has not returned to the strong zone). Overall, the bias is oscillating and weak.

👀 Short-term focus: First look at whether the upper side can recover and stabilize at 91,082 - 92,100, then it will be time for 93.9k (upper Bollinger band) as this strong resistance level. On the lower side, key focus is on 90,500 (middle band) - if it holds, there is still room for continued repair.

#BTC走势分析

📑 In the past few days, I've been studying options' IV (Implied Volatility) and Skew; I truly believe these two are shortcuts to understanding market sentiment. Remember: Skew is sentiment, IV is volatility expectation! 👇🏼👇🏼

🌟🌟 Based on the market pricing relationship of IV × Skew, I will organize this next and create charts that can be directly used to judge market phases: IV & Skew Market Trend Matrix 🌟🌟

First, let me briefly introduce IV and skew:

📈 IV = the market's pricing for future volatility: it does not predict direction, but reflects "to what extent future fluctuations might occur, so how much options should be worth."

IV Range:

↗️ Contango: short-term low, long-term high = market calm.
↘️ Backwardation: short-term high, long-term low = market panic / mania.

〰️ Skew = the difference in IV between different strike prices: tells you what the market is worried about.

Skew term structure (direction):

➖ Negative Skew: Puts are more expensive = the market fears a drop.
➕ Positive Skew: Calls are more expensive = the market fears missing out (FOMO).

If you like it, please follow or like it 🙏🏻

#加密市场观察

☕️ SpaceX and #BlackRock⁩ exchanged approximately 296 million USD worth of BTC to Coinbase Prime! 🙀🙀 - Source: Lookonchain X account - Happened on the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The market is currently a bit tense, uncertain if this is a reallocation or preparation for cashing out? 🤔

Let’s summarize the trend as of December 11, $BTC UTC 23:07, one hour before the close👇🏼👇🏼

📈 BTC daily line stopped falling near the lower Bollinger Band and is currently at 92,568 USD, re-establishing above the EMA from July 25, but overall it is slightly bullish in the short term. The hourly chart shows a V-shaped rally, with the price slightly above the upper Bollinger Band, RSI around 65, and MACD golden cross expanding. Exchange -5,671 BTC net outflow with continuous net inflow from spot ETFs, overall being slowly driven up by spot.

👀 Short-term focus: On the upside, first look at the resistance around the daily upper Bollinger Band at 94.6K. On the downside, pay attention to the overlapping of multiple moving averages between 91K–91.5K on the hourly level.

Note: The above is a sharing of public data and personal analysis, and does not constitute any investment advice.

The cost and threshold of mixed DeFi are getting lower! #AsterDEX announced the cancellation of all trading fees (both taker and maker are at 0 rate) for newly listed perpetual contracts including NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA). Incredible 🙏

👌The Federal Reserve's expected rate cut of 25bp on December 10, but the tone is cautious, and there is no commitment to future easing, the market reaction is relatively calm. It feels like this rate cut is more about stabilizing sentiment, with limited driving force; prices should continue to fluctuate within the range of 91k–94k.

$BTC December 10th trend analysis - UTC 22:58, about an hour and a half before the closing time: 👇

🤑 BTC is currently around 92.3k, rebounding from the lower Bollinger band (84.8k) to between the middle and upper bands on the daily line, standing above the 7-day EMA (91.3k) but still pressed near the 25-day EMA (92.4k). The MACD has a golden cross below the zero axis, and the RSI is about 49, not yet a complete reversal. The daily moving averages are still in a bearish arrangement; although the MACD has had a golden cross, it is still overall below the zero axis, and a large volume bearish candle could end this rebound.

👀 Short-term focus: First look at the upper 1-hour Bollinger upper band at 93k, as well as the daily Bollinger upper band pressure around 94.6k. On the downside, pay attention to the convergence area of the 1-hour MA200 + daily 7EMA at 91.3k–91.8k; breaking below here could easily push the price back down to the daily Bollinger middle band near 89.7k.

Note: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and predictions are not guaranteed to be accurate. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

#BTC走势分析

#Hyperliquid Strategies announced on December 8 that they will conduct a $30 million stock buyback over the next 12 months! However, it is worth noting that:
➡️ The buyback is of the company's stock (PURR), not the HYPE token.
➡️ Essentially, it is a stock buyback, and its utility supports the market value of the HYPE token indirectly by raising the company's stock price and reducing the circulation of stocks.

Before and after the announcement, $HYPE basically maintained in the $29-30 range, without significant spikes, and the short-term impact is limited.

Hyperliquid Strategies is a digital asset financial company focused on accumulating HYPE tokens, and its operating model is similar to MicroStrategy.

#币圈资讯

The screenshot is from CoinMarketCap X account.

On December 8, #Hyperliquid announced on X that #USDC has achieved native interoperability between HyperCore and HyperEVM, making cross-chain deposits on Hyperliquid smoother and safer, while also reducing reliance on third-party bridges like Arbitrum. This is a user and developer-friendly infrastructure upgrade! It is much more convenient to directly deposit USDC. However, the price of $HYPE has completely lagged behind.

💥 So strong! What kind of news is driving this $BTC -hour big bullish candlestick that just appeared?
On December 9th, around 3 PM UTC, $BTC suddenly surged from around 90,000 to above 93,000! Here’s a brief summary of the news over the past two days: 👇

1️⃣ Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have risen, and the macro sentiment is bullish.
This week is the Federal Reserve meeting, and the market generally bets on a 25bp rate cut, believing there is a chance of reintroducing liquidity, benefiting risk assets overall, and Bitcoin is sure to strengthen.

2️⃣ Twenty One Capital (a Bitcoin treasury company) experienced a large transfer of over 43,000 BTC from the custody wallet on the day of its listing, which directly boosted sentiment.

3️⃣ Large institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin (such as MicroStrategy, ARK, etc.)
MicroStrategy added over 10,000 BTC and continues to buy: showing that institutions are still active in accumulating coins in the market.

4️⃣ Regulatory favorable news
U.S. regulators allow BTC and other assets to be used as collateral for derivatives, and PNC Bank has opened Bitcoin trading services, making the fact that Bitcoin is becoming a 'mainstream financial asset' gradually more real.

5️⃣ Ongoing outflow of on-chain funds + multiple large whale fund movements:
The continuous decline in exchange BTC balances and large whale transfers indicate that the market is in a state of 'low selling pressure + high coin accumulation,' creating structural conditions for price increases.

6️⃣ Key market opinion leaders (CZ, Saylor, etc.) release strong bullish statements.
CZ emphasizes that Bitcoin has entered a 'super bull market,' and Saylor continues to publicly express a long-term bullish outlook.

7️⃣ Technical aspects: Stabilizing at the 90,000 level + short squeeze.
BTC has been fluctuating around 90,000 for the past two days, with short sellers betting on a subsequent breakdown. However, the bulls have held this position, and short-term traders need to be cautious; if it doesn't go down, they will push it up, and derivatives positions could be forced to stop-loss or close shorts at critical points, easily amplifying the upward movement within an hour.

Reference materials
CryptoSlate, CoinDesk, bingx.com, cryptoslate.com, Coinglass, Santiment on-chain metrics analysis, cryptobriefing.com, Bitget.

😎 Next, we will talk about the powerful IV and skew index.

#美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #BTC走势分析

#Vitalik Ideas are constantly being innovated💡 He proposed establishing an on-chain gas futures market on Ethereum, allowing users to lock in future gas prices in advance to reduce the risks associated with cost fluctuations. This way, heavy users (such as dApps and traders) can achieve more predictable costs, although implementation is still not easy. Source: cointelegraph

⛽️ However, gas has been quite cheap over the past year, for example, it is currently only 0.22gw, equivalent to 0.02 USD.

🤔 Do you think his idea can be realized?

🌟 Great! #BlackRock⁩ ⁩ submitted an application to the SEC, preparing to launch a new Ethereum staking #ETF (ETHB), which is different from the existing spot ETF (ETHA). ETHB will use part of the ETH for #staking (staking) and distribute staking rewards to holders. If this product is approved, it will make it easier for traditional investors to access yield-generating ETH. Source: Decrypt

👩🏻‍💻 In 2024, the company developed a new Staking product, built on EigenLayer and Symbiotic. Throughout this process, I increasingly feel that Staking is an amazing mechanism: it provides security for the blockchain while allowing those holding funds to earn rewards.

The launch of the Staking ETF will effectively expand institutional participation in ETH, making the yield narrative easier to understand for traditional finance, which could have profound implications for the development of Web3.