K线人生飞哥

A self-introduction for my followers

Hello everyone, I am Fei Ge. I entered the crypto space in 2017, and I can be considered an old hand. Along the way, I have stepped into countless pitfalls, but I have also summarized some of my own methodologies. From blindly following trends at the beginning, I have gradually shifted my focus to studying cycles, macro trends, and capital logic, and I have slowly found my own rhythm.

As I journeyed, I found that the crypto world is not just about ups and downs; it is more like a cyclical game: some people FOMO during the highs, while others quietly position themselves during the lows.

Currently, I am a blogger on Binance Square, sharing some of my personal thoughts and observations. I am not a great expert, just an old hand who has experienced several bull and bear markets. I hope to share the pitfalls I have encountered and the lessons I have learned, so that newcomers can avoid unnecessary detours, and I can also gain new insights through exchange.

If you also believe in cycles, logic, and long-term accumulation, then perhaps we can become companions here.

Regarding the viewpoints in my posts, please note the following points:

1: The crypto market is constantly changing, and so will my viewpoints follow the market. This industry changes too quickly; only by continuously keeping up with the industry's progress can one continue to grow. Sticking rigidly to established norms will only lead to being eliminated by the times, so I hope everyone can be more open-minded.

2: The viewpoints I post on the Square are divided into short-term and long-term. For example, even if I am bullish in the long term, there will be pullbacks in between; similarly, even if I am bearish in the long term, there will also be rebounds in between. Please do not let short-term viewpoints affect long-term perspectives. An upward market does not mean it will rise continuously without looking back; more often, it is a trend of ups and downs. Similarly, a downward market does not mean it will crash without any rebounds; more often, it is a trend of falls and rises overall. I hope everyone can understand the differences between short-term and long-term viewpoints.

3: In this market, apart from BTC, which can be followed blindly, other coins have market cycles, especially altcoins. Before buying a coin, you should at least investigate it; some things need to be understood a bit, and you cannot just buy whatever others say. Especially for those with limited funds, you need to consider the actual situation and be more cautious.

Thank you to every friend who follows and supports me; you are the motivation for my continued sharing. May we all reap our own rewards in the cycles. 🌱

Seeing a KOL's opinion on Weibo made me laugh. He said that in the fourth quarter of this year, Bitcoin's decline is only about 20%, so a bear market hasn't come yet. A real bear market is when Bitcoin's decline in a single quarter is over 40%.
If we follow this logic, do we have to wait for Bitcoin to drop 40% to confirm that a bear market has arrived? Then drop 60% to officially confirm the bear market has come, and then sell at the bottom...
Currently, it's not just on Weibo; many people in the square share this logic. Forget it, good advice is hard to give to the damned ghosts. You can do whatever you want.

Silver is awesome, I ate 3 limit up boards
I have been shouting about gold and silver in the square for so long, I don't believe no one has made money with me??? You say the price of gold is too high to buy, silver has already risen 50% from the position I called, has anyone made money following me??? Give me a like and let me see.

$ASTER The short-term downward trend should come to an end, whether viewed from a technical perspective or a funding perspective. Basically, the short-term has fallen quite a bit, but I still believe this is a garbage project. There are only a few hundred daily active users on-chain, so how can it support a market value of several billion? The perp dex track already has an absolute leader, which is $HYPE . From the moment $ASTER was born, it has been imitation rather than innovation, so after a short-term rebound, it will continue to decline.

BitMine's position $ETH should exceed that of the Ethereum Foundation, currently holding 4.066 million ETH. In fact, a concentration of chips is not good for ETH in the long run, just like how $BTC is currently being controlled by MicroStrategy, where every move by MicroStrategy affects the price of BTC. However, the original essence of blockchain is to be decentralized.

Although the team $AAVE has started internal strife, from a fundamental perspective, AAVE is still the best DeFi lending project. I actually see the drop as an opportunity; I will wait for further declines to buy the dip and try going long. The probability of being buried is low.

This year, gold and silver have repeatedly hit new highs, marking a bull market for precious metals, but Bitcoin's annual line is negative. Essentially, the logic is quite similar; this year may overall support the narrative that BTC is a dollar asset and AI is currently the number one dollar asset.

Precious metals are actually following the logic of safe-haven dollars, but this does not mean that speculation is impossible. Hence, there is silver. For BTC to take off, it may need to wait for macro conditions to continue improving, or for a strong narrative like AI to come down.

The recovery of the cryptocurrency market is just a matter of time; the overflow of liquidity will eventually flow into the crypto space. What is needed now is simply patience.
Even if VC has gone bad and altcoins have failed, at least Bitcoin remains unchanged.

Global Money Supply Out of Control: The global money supply has now reached a record $45 trillion. China's M1 money supply has risen to $16.5 trillion, a historic high. China is currently the world's largest producer of narrow money, accounting for about 37% of the global total. Meanwhile, the M1 money supply in the United States (excluding savings deposits) has reached a record $8 trillion, accounting for about 18% of the world's total. Global liquidity is increasing. However, currently, this liquidity is entering the U.S. stock and precious metals markets, with only a slight overflow into Bitcoin, primarily because the narrative in the cryptocurrency space has been debunked; the market lacks good narratives, not funds.

The trend of silver is indeed strong. There's no need to rush to seize the left side; waiting for the right side confirmation is perfectly fine. If it continues to push upwards now, the structure is only missing the last truly effective turning point, which corresponds to what you referred to as the level in the fourth chart.

From a larger time frame perspective:
Chart 1 is the weekly chart, which has clearly strengthened;
Chart 2 is the monthly chart, with an upward trend;
Chart 3, when viewed quarterly, shows a generally optimistic price expectation.

In each chart, the top two price ranges are worth focusing on, while the most extreme peak value is more of an emotional anchor and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

The most critical point now is that the 64 turning point has been effectively broken. As long as it doesn't fall back down, the large-scale trend remains upward. This means that structurally, the logic for rising is valid, and the subsequent target levels have at least entered a stage where they can be imagined and tracked.

Regarding the views on the upcoming market in the long and short term

$BTC From the weekly perspective, BTC has indeed been tested several times above 80000, indicating that there are buyers below, but this is definitely not the bottom of this bear market. In this round, it is still very likely to fall back below 80600, to complete the process starting with 7. In this round, BTC rose from 15000 all the way to 126000, and this big cycle has already come to an end; what we are seeing now is just a technical rebound within the downward cycle.

From the daily perspective of BTC, it will be clearer. If the short-term does not break 84400, it can be seen as the starting line for a rebound, but 94000 is the first hard barrier, and whether it can pass depends entirely on the attitude of the funds. The current weekly pattern is actually very similar to the sideways market at the beginning of 2022, with continuous lower shadows indicating that there are still willing buyers, but the MACD showing a golden cross at a low position only indicates that the selling pressure has eased, not that the trend has reversed. This scenario has played out in history: a rebound to 0.618, then a direct drop.

Following this rhythm, this wave of fluctuations will likely drag on until mid to late January next year, with the upper limit of the rebound probably around 98000.

$ETH The short-term manipulation marks are too obvious, with the core still being the 3000 level. If it can stabilize, there is still a chance to touch 3160, but once it fails to hold, the area below is a vacuum zone below 2940, with almost no decent support before 2775. Even if December ends positively, it does not represent strength; it seems more like paving the way for further declines in January. Four consecutive months of decline have indeed provided some imagination space for a short-term rebound, but it is still just a rebound, not a reversal.

Shanzhai coins have begun to enter a bottom fluctuation range
The bubble of high-valued VC coins over the past three years is also about to be cleared.

$CRV performance is okay, $UNI after a surge, I went long on CRV at 0.35, and I've mentioned it in the community, currently it looks basically fine, the old blue-chip coins in defi won't miss every rebound, continue to hold until the target price for closing.

$BCH has now been completely manipulated by big players, with a large number of short positions and spot selling pressure continuously weighing down, the price cannot go up or down. When you want to short, the price will be pushed up. I have said that currently in the entire altcoin market, only BCH has not really dropped, so a large number of shorts are targeting BCH. In the short term, BCH will not drop smoothly; it will be pulled back and forth at high levels, exhausting all patience before it finally falls.

Gold reaches new highs, silver reaches new highs, A-shares and U.S. stocks rebound close to historical highs
Currently, only the cryptocurrency market is still down, although the crypto market has entered a bear phase, there will still be a wave of rebound coming, because I believe we are currently only in the mid-stage of a bear market, the first phase of the decline has already ended, and there won't be a trend decline in the next two months, but rather a broad fluctuation up and down. Therefore, in the next month or two, $BTC is expected to rise in a fluctuating manner. If one must short, a rebound to the 98,000 to 100,000 position is a very cost-effective point to short.

According to KingFisher's data, currently the long position liquidation rate of $LTC is as high as 89.7%, and $BCH is even more exaggerated, reaching 95.5%. Simply put, most people in the market are betting long, and the concentration is very high.

In this situation, once the price fluctuates downwards even slightly, it is very likely to trigger a chain liquidation, leading to a rapid decline. The more concentrated the long positions, the greater the downside risk, and the market is more likely to be forced to correct.

This week's cryptocurrency watchlist:

UNI - Voting on the Uniswap proposal to destroy 100 million UNI tokens and enable fee switching will end on December 25.

HYPE - Voting on the proposal to destroy $1 billion worth of HYPE tokens proposed by Hyperliquid will end on December 24.

ANON - Hey, anonymous users, Daniele Sesta's project is expected to launch a new prediction market platform this month.

ASTER - Aster will reduce its token issuance on December 22.

AERO - Aerodrome is about to expand to Ethereum L1 layer.

SNX - Infinex will soon integrate Synthetix and Lighter perps.

AAVE - There is intense debate within AAVE DAO regarding whether token holders should have control over AAVE brand assets.

HUMA - Huma Finance will distribute Huma Vanguard utility badges to HUMA stakers on December 24.

Variational - Variational has just launched a points program and retroactively granted points to its users on Arbitrum.

Rails - The hybrid perpetual trading platform Rails will announce its development roadmap on December 22.

UP - The new stablecoin bank Superform, owned by users, will launch its token UP this month.

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$LIGHT Awesome, it only took two hours to drop back to the original point after rising for a month. I estimate the next one is $NIGHT , the reason is simple, $BTC is in a bearish trend, the imitation cannot have an independent market, even if there is a short-term rise, it's just a dead cat bounce.

Summarize the current Bitcoin ETF holding costs of major institutions

First, let's look at the key ranges.

65,000 to 70,000, this small segment holds about 230,000 BTC, accounting for around 15% of all funds, which is a solid core cost area.

60,000 to 65,000 also has about 11% of the funds, which is a very solid support zone.

The entire range from 75,000 to 85,000 only accounts for less than 3% of the funds, which is almost empty.

Why is 65,000 to 70,000 considered a fortress? Because the earliest institutions that invested in ETFs have a large portion of their costs here. At the current price, they still have a profit of 30% to 40%. They have weathered all the pullbacks since the ETF launch without selling even when it reached 108,000. Do you think they would sell at 67,000? If it really gets close to that area, it is highly likely that institutions will start defending, and the buy orders will thicken.

However, 75,000 to 85,000 is completely different. There is no dense cost here; not many people feel they must defend it. Once it breaks below 85,000 and approaches 70,000, there is almost no buffer; the price can move quickly, not due to panic, but because there’s nothing below to catch it.

Another crucial data point: the part of the positions currently at a loss has spent more money than the profitable positions. Institutions have spent about 63 billion dollars on the currently lost coins, while the profitable part is only about 59 billion. This means that the money that came in at high prices is more than the money that truly bought at the bottom.

The surge in October 2024 towards 108,000 attracted the largest scale of high-priced funds into the market, and these people are now mostly underwater. Every time it fails to break above 100,000, this anxious group expands. Early investors have profit cushions, and the pullback feels insignificant; late investors are different; they not only have to provide explanations internally but also face redemption pressure from high-priced buying clients, which makes the structure itself very fragile.

So now I am only focusing on three price levels:

80,000 is the overall cost line; if it falls below this, more than 100 billion dollars in institutional positions will turn overall into losses, and emotions and public opinion will change.

75,000 to 85,000 is the air layer; whether moving up or down, it will move very quickly.

65,000 to 70,000 is the strongest structural support and the area where institutions will truly start to defend.

So everyone looking to buy the dip can focus on the cost areas near institutions.

It seems that the bear market has really arrived, even the large-cap coins $AAVE can't hold up anymore. Now that I say the bear market has come, there shouldn't be many people who would refute it, right???