So what is one of the necessary conditions for interest rate cuts?
The unemployment rate, which has been emphasized in both long and short articles, is one of the necessary conditions. This is also why the recent non-farm data is bearish, while the unemployment rate is bullish! I interpret this data as favorable.
Because the unemployment rate has risen, it's as simple as that. #美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
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Trump is pushing for interest rate cuts, and White House economic advisors are doing this kind of thing. How can interest rates be cut if the unemployment rate doesn't rise? I really don't know what they want, it's just stupid! Wages are rising, people are re-entering the labor market, so employment is good, consumer spending is good. Can inflation still go down? #美国非农数据超预期
Today in the live room we made two trades, one pippin and one rave, both successfully closed for profit! The chat room and the small circle were also synchronized, we are not hiding our trades,
We'll be back live at 8:30 PM to look for opportunities.
Tonight there will be a speech by Waller, usually his speeches don't have much impact!
However, it is rumored that he has also become a candidate for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, so you might want to pay attention when he speaks tonight!#巨鲸动向 #ETH #BTC
Trump is pushing for interest rate cuts, and White House economic advisors are doing this kind of thing. How can interest rates be cut if the unemployment rate doesn't rise? I really don't know what they want, it's just stupid! Wages are rising, people are re-entering the labor market, so employment is good, consumer spending is good. Can inflation still go down? #美国非农数据超预期
The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5, but the published value is 4.6! However, one negative and one positive means this prediction is correct. Additionally, this data interpretation is considered positive; although the non-farm data is negative, it is not significantly higher than the expected value! Next, let's see if the market reacts to the high unemployment rate with signs of recession! #非农就业数据
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21:30 Non-farm employment data and unemployment rate!
Boldly predicting that the unemployment rate will be announced at 4.5%, and I won't predict the non-farm employment number!
Tonight's most likely scenario is non-farm data being bearish, while the unemployment rate will be bullish, creating a hedging situation. #非农就业数据
The broadcast has ended, let's observe the trend after the data is released tonight! #巨鲸动向 #非农就业数据
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Overview of Important Macroeconomic Events This Week!
The content of the article is only personal opinion and should not be taken as any investment advice! Let’s review the macroeconomic data that need attention this week: Tuesday evening's non-farm data, unemployment rate, wage rate! This time, the unemployment rate and non-farm data do not have previous values. I dug up the unemployment rate in September, which is 4.4, and the non-farm number for September is 11.9! The reason for the lack of previous values is that the record government shutdown in the U.S. prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting household survey data for October (used to calculate the unemployment rate), and this data cannot be supplemented later. Therefore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics decided to cancel the separate release of the October non-farm employment report and include its data in the November report.
In December, there haven't been any significant movements macro-wise, except for Japan raising interest rates; nothing else is causing much of a stir. The Federal Reserve has completed its third interest rate cut this year, and the Bank of England and the European Central Bank may cut rates or keep them unchanged this week, but after these policies are implemented, there will be no major news before the end of the month. Next, the market's focus is on 'wrapping up': the U.S. stock market needs to close the year-end line, and institutions are busy with year-end clearing, settling accounts, and adjusting positions, such as selling some profitable stocks to secure gains; in the crypto space, institutions like Invesco and BlackRock are also doing fund clearing and position adjustments, which may cause some short-term fluctuations in the market. In simple terms, the macro disturbances have come to a pause, and the year-end fund adjustments and closing the year-end line will be the main factors affecting the future trends of the U.S. stock market and the crypto space. So, what's next is waiting, especially for those doing mid-term positions! Those who can invest for the medium to long term typically have larger capital volumes, so they need to observe market trends more closely and make more detailed layouts. #巨鲸动向 #BTC