CRYPTO MECHANIC

Bitcoin continues to show weakness, with the two major factors being ETF outflows and the situation surrounding Saylor's STRC and MSTR.
ETF demand has weakened over the past few weeks. Last week alone, $1.79 billion was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs.

The week is going to really important to watch for two reasons
Bitcoin trading around the key $60k zone despite all the FUD.Bitcoin's weekly candle closed under Feb low ($60k)
Let's go straight to the charts to see what's happening and what we can expect from Bitcoin this week.

The weekly downtrend continues

Bitcoin closed below $60k this week, confirming a new lower low on the weekly chart. That also makes $82k the latest lower high on the weekly.
Keeping it simple: as long as the weekly market structure doesn't change, Bitcoin can continue printing lower highs and lower lows.
There will obviously be plenty of rallies and bounces along the way, but they don't change the overall weekly trend unless the market structure shifts.

One thing to keep in mind about Bitcoin: if the market is truly shifting its structure, it shouldn't come back to test the key lows, let alone close below them.
Historically, once Bitcoin has put in a major bottom, it hasn't gone back to retest it.
This weekly close below $60k suggests there could still be more downside ahead.
Where Bitcoin could go?

I know everyone is sharing different downside targets, and I've always said this: as long as the market structure is bearish, you can make a case for lower targets because the trend gives you a reason to.
As long as the weekly structure remains bearish, the next major zone is $52k–55k.
Worst case scenario? $38k–45k.
Should you short based on the weekly chart? I don't think so.
Like I said above, there will likely be multiple bounces along the way, and that's where leverage can get you caught.
Shorting at $60k based on a single weekly close isn't a good idea, in my opinion. The market can always fake people out, and most of you already know that.
I'm not into shorting, but if you are, I'd rather look to short into key resistance than at key support.
BTCUSD (Daily)
Each timeframe shows you a different picture and you should treat it differently.

Like I said earlier, this week will be important to watch because Bitcoin is still trading around the $60k area despite all the FUD.
The bears are struggling to push the price below $59k–60k. If you look closely, every dip into that zone is getting bought up. That's not something to ignore, and it's also why I said you shouldn't blindly short just because one weekly candle closed below $60k.
If Bitcoin reclaims $61k and manages to hold above it, you can expect a relief bounce.
And hold below $59k would mean Bulls have finally gave up on this zone.
It's only the first day of the week, so there's no need to rush into a long or a short.
The daily chart and lower timeframes will be the key ones to watch. Observe first, then execute based on whether the market shows strength or weakness.

That’s pretty much it for this Bitcoin update.
Let me know what do you think, your opinions are Always welcome

Every time we enter a new market cycle, people start saying the same thing:
"This time is different."
They say Bitcoin has matured. Institutions are here. Governments are involved. ETFs exist. The old cycles don't matter anymore.

And yet, every single cycle ends up looking surprisingly similar.
The funny thing is that people forget history when prices are going up. Then when prices start falling, they forget history again and think Bitcoin is dead forever.
If you zoom out and ignore the noise, Bitcoin has followed a very clear pattern for more than a decade.
Let's take a look.
Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle
If you pull up Bitcoin's historical price action, the pattern jumps out at you immediately.

Bitcoin topped in November 2013Four years later, it topped again in December 2017Another four years later, Bitcoin peaked in November 2021Following the same rhythm, the most recent cycle top formed around October 2025
Four years. Every single time. The market doesn't care about your opinions or mine. It just keeps doing the same thing.
The Bear Market
Historically, Bitcoin follows a familiar pattern:

The same pattern appears on the downside as well. When you look at Bitcoin’s major bear-market lows, they also occur roughly four years apart. Historically, Bitcoin follows a familiar rhythm:
Around three years of upsideFollowed by roughly one year of a bear marketThen the next cycle begins
The Big Question: Where Do You Buy Bitcoin?
Everyone loves buying Bitcoin when it is making new highs.
Very few people want to buy it when it is down 50%, 60%, or 70%.
The problem is that the best opportunities usually appear when fear is at its highest.
One of the simplest ways I use to identify potential buying zones is Fibonacci retracement levels.
I'm not talking about finding the exact bottom.
I'm talking about finding areas where Bitcoin has historically offered the best long-term opportunities.
Lets look at the data.
2014 Bear market

2018 Bear market

2022 Bear market

Every single bear market has bottomed somewhere between the 0.618 and the 0.786 fib level from the previous cycle.
Something Interesting to Notice
There is one thing that stands out on every cycle. If you look at the charts.
In every bear market, Bitcoin dropped below the 0.786 Fibonacci level, spent some time under it, and then started a new bull cycle.

This is also important because many investors expect a V-shaped recovery.
Historically, Bitcoin likes to spend time building a base before starting its next major move higher. That means you will have a lot of time to buy Bitcoin for the next cycle.
Two Types of Investors
When the price enters the fib zone, you basically have two approaches:
Type one
You start accumulating as soon as Bitcoin enters the fib range. You're okay with catching it somewhere between the 0.618 and 0.786. You don't need the perfect bottom, you just want to be positioned.
Type two
You wait for the absolute bottom. You're targeting the 0.786 or lower, and you're patient enough to wait for the full capitulation before you move.
Neither approach is wrong. It just depends on your risk tolerance and how much you trust the setup.
Now lets have a look at
The Current Cycle
If Bitcoin follows the same pattern as previous cycles, the price could eventually fall into the historical Fibonacci 0.618 - 0.786 buy zone.

it is basically $40k - 58k zone based on the fib levels.
if Bitcoin drops to 0.786 fib like the previous cycles
The 0.786 level comes in just under $40k zone.
Mastering The Bottom
Two things tend to line up at the real bottom:
Time-based capitulation
Bitcoin historically bottoms in Q4 of the bear market year, or roughly one year after the cycle top. So timing matters just as much as price.
Basically there are two similarities in every Bitcoin cycle
Price drops to the fib levels we discussed aboveIt Bottoms in Q4 or 1 year after the market top
There is a world where price may not drop as deep as you may expect, Spend some time in a price range and starts a new market cycle. Where will bitcoin consolidate? That is just a guess but you have to consider the time based capitulation if you're someone waiting to Buy Bitcoin based on the 4 year cycle.
Price-based capitulation
Price drops into the fib levels, like it always does.
When you get both of these lining up at the same time, that's when the setup becomes serious.
The Public Sentiment Never Changes
At $120k, the narrative was super cycle. Institutions. ETFs, Trump will pump our bags. This time it really is different. The four-year cycle is dead. Bitcoin doesn't crash like that anymore.
Now as price drops or wherever this bear market takes it the narrative will flip completely. The same people will be saying Bitcoin is broken. It was all a fraud. The bull market isn't coming back. It's going much lower.
This will also be a sign that Bitcoin is getting closer to its bottom.

That’s pretty much it
This article is for educational purposes only. I have no idea whether Bitcoin will follow the same pattern again or not. We're simply looking at historical data, and so far, history suggests that Bitcoin continues to behave in a similar way.
Nobody can predict the future with certainty.
Bitcoin may not follow the cycle perfectly this time.
However, if history has taught us anything, it's that ignoring proven market behavior because of popular narratives is usually a mistake.
The biggest opportunities often appear when nobody wants them.
If Bitcoin enters the historical buy zone again, the challenge won't be finding the opportunity.
The challenge will be having the courage to take it while everyone else is convinced the world is ending.

Good Luck