glassnode

Three cycles. Six years. One pattern that keeps working.
The pattern is clear: When >95% of supply is in profit → market top. When <50% → bear market bottom. Right now, we're in the reset phase.
Full Data Table (2020–2026)
Date BTC Price (USD) Realized Price (USD) Unrealized Profit Margin (%) Supply in Profit (%) Market Phase
2020-03 $6,500 $5,800 +12% ~45% Bear bottom
2020-12 $28,989 $7,500 +286% 95% Bull start
2021-04 $64,000 $17,000 +276% 97% Euphoria
2021-11 $68,964 $24,000 +187% ~95% Cycle top
2022-06 $20,000 $22,000 -9% ~40% Capitulation
2022-11 $16,300 $23,000 -29% ~25% Bear bottom
2023-12 $40,000 $25,000 +60% ~70% Recovery
2024-12 $107,796 $35,000 +208% 96% Bull peak
2025-10 $126,198 $45,000 +180% ~94% All-time high
2026-03 $70,000 $52,000 +34% ~65% Correction
Visual Timeline
2020-03 2021-11 2022-11 2024-12 2025-10 2026-03
● ● ● ● ● ●
│ │ │ │ │ │
$6,500 $68,964 $16,300 $107,796 $126,198 $70,000
Realized Realized Realized Realized Realized Realized
$5,800 $24,000 $23,000 $35,000 $45,000 $52,000
Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin
+12% +187% -29% +208% +180% +34%
Bear Cycle Capit- Bull All-Time Correction
Bottom Top ulation Peak High Phase
The Pattern
Signal Bull Market Tops Bear Market Bottoms
Unrealized Profit Margin 180% (2021, 2024, 2025) Negative (2022) or <60%
Supply in Profit 95% <50%
Realized Price Rising (cost basis increases) Flat or falling
Current status (May 2026):
· Unrealized profit margin: +34%
· Supply in profit: ~65%
· Market phase: Correction / Reset
Bottom Line
When >95% of supply is in profit → sell signal.
When <50% → buy signal.
Right now, we're in between. The reset phase.
History doesn't repeat perfectly – but it rhymes.
#Bitcoin #OnChain #CryptoQuant #Glassnode #MarketCycles

📊
Deep blockchain forensics offer vital clues regarding the current market phase for $BTC
. Recent on-chain data highlights that the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Cap has stabilized, signaling a dramatic cooling period in market profit-taking. Investors who have diamond-handed their positions for over 155 days are cleanly halting their distribution campaigns. $SOL
This critical behavior shift shows that mature market participants are actively transitioning from a selling phase back into deep accumulation. As these high-conviction wallets lock away circulating coins, the available liquid supply on centralized exchanges continues to dry up. Historically, when LTH selling stops during a macro consolidation phase, it builds the foundational spring for the next aggressive leg up for @Bitcoin . 💎 $XRP
#OnChainData #Glassnode #LongTermHolders #CryptoAnalytics #SupplyShock

Bitcoin is trading at $80,847 as of this morning — and according to Glassnode's on-chain analysis, it's sitting at what may be one of the cleanest technical setups of the entire cycle.
Bitcoin opened at $80,847.82 on Thursday, up 0.56% from Wednesday's opening price. Ethereum opened at $2,323.13, up 0.28%.
ETF inflows have become the dominant force behind Bitcoin's ascent. They now act as "an increasingly important source of consistent buying pressure," helping the asset hold higher levels as long as institutional appetite remains intact.
The on-chain picture is unusually clear right now. Bitcoin has broken above two critical cost basis levels — the True Market Mean and the Short-Term Holder realized price. The next structural resistance is the Active Realized Price at approximately $85,200. Breaking above $82,500 would confirm a technical trend reversal.
"Should price sustain above these two levels in the coming week, the deep value regime that persisted from early February 2026 through now would rank among the shortest episodes of its kind in Bitcoin market history," analysts at Glassnode said. "Attention now shifts to the next major resistance at the Active Realized Price near $85.2k, which tracks the cost basis of all non-dormant supply and represents the next structural threshold the market must reckon with."
Now for Saylor's pivot — and it's a genuine strategic shift. At the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas last week, Saylor trained his sights beyond Bitcoin's price. His pitch centred on STRC — Strategy's Bitcoin-backed preferred stock — and a thesis that digital credit is set to reshape global capital markets. "The world's $300 trillion credit market is a much bigger opportunity than the world's roughly $2 trillion Bitcoin market," Saylor told the audience.
This is Saylor expanding the thesis from "buy and hold Bitcoin" to "Bitcoin-backed financial instruments can replace the global credit system." STRC is the first product in that thesis — a perpetual preferred stock paying 11.5% yield, backed by Strategy's Bitcoin holdings, traded on public markets. It's essentially a Bitcoin-collateralized bond at scale.
The market is paying attention. BlackRock's iShares Preferred & Income Securities ETF has already taken a $210 million position in STRC, which has grown to $8.5 billion in under nine months. Fortune
BlackRock — the world's largest asset manager — bought $210 million of Bitcoin-backed preferred stock. That sentence would have been unimaginable in 2023. In May 2026, it's a footnote in an earnings call.
The direct implication for BTC price: as STRC grows, Strategy needs to maintain its Bitcoin collateral ratio. More STRC issuance means more BTC purchases are required to back it. Strategy's buying pace doesn't slow as the credit instrument grows — if anything, it accelerates. The STRC program and Bitcoin accumulation are structurally linked.
The $85,200 Active Realized Price is the next real test. If BTC holds above $80K through this week's CLARITY Act markup and closes the weekly candle above $82K, the technical structure shifts decisively.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Saylor #Strategy #Glassnode

The tools below are not paid promotions. They are the actual platforms I return to every single research session — whether we are in a roaring bull market or a grinding bear.
1. CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant is a professional-grade on-chain analytics platform that aggregates data from exchanges, miners, and wallets to give you a real-time picture of market sentiment and capital flows.
WHY I USE IT
• Exchange inflow/outflow: When large amounts of BTC or ETH flow INTO exchanges, it signals selling pressure incoming. Outflows = accumulation.
• Miner behavior: Miners selling = potential price drop incoming. Miners holding = they believe price will go higher.
• Funding rates: Check if perpetual futures markets are overheated. Extreme positive funding = market is overleveraged long, ripe for a liquidation cascade.
• Stablecoin supply ratio: More stablecoins relative to market cap = dry powder ready to buy. A powerful leading indicator.
Pro Tip: In a bear market, set up alerts for large exchange inflows on BTC. Historically, these precede short-term price drops — and give you better altcoin entry points.
2. Token Terminal
Token Terminal applies traditional financial analysis to crypto protocols. It tracks revenue, P/E ratios, price-to-sales multiples, and other fundamentals for DeFi protocols and blockchains — metrics that actually tell you if a project is a business or just a token.
WHY I USE IT
• Protocol revenue: Is the project earning real fees from users, or paying people with inflation? Revenue = real adoption.
• P/S ratio (Price-to-Sales): Like a stock's P/E. If a DeFi protocol has a P/S of 3x while competitors are at 50x, that is potentially undervalued.
• Cumulative fees: Shows total economic value the protocol has generated — a measure of staying power.
• Active developer count: More devs building = a healthier, growing ecosystem.
Pro Tip: Use Token Terminal's 'Revenue' filter sorted by 30-day change. Projects with rising revenue during a bear market are your best-quality targets.
3. Coinmarketcap
The most widely used crypto data aggregator on the planet. For beginners, it is often the first stop. For veterans, it still serves a critical role — but you need to know how to use it correctly, not just look at price.
WHY I USE IT
• Circulating vs fully diluted valuation (FDV): The most important number most beginners ignore. If market cap is $50M but FDV is $2B, 97% of the supply has yet to hit the market.
• Token unlock schedules via the 'Vesting' tab: Quickly check if a major unlock is coming in the next 30–90 days.
• Exchange listing data: Is the token only on two small DEXs, or is it on Binance and Coinbase? Liquidity depth matters enormously.
• Historical price overlays: Compare a token's price against BTC dominance cycles to understand how it performed in previous bear markets.
Pro Tip: Never judge a token by market cap alone. Always check the FDV column. A 'cheap' $50M market cap coin with a $3B FDV is not cheap at all.
4. Glassnode
Glassnode is the gold standard for Bitcoin and Ethereum on-chain analysis. It is the most data-rich platform in the space, used by institutions, hedge funds, and serious retail investors. Some features are behind a paid plan, but the free tier still delivers enormous value.
WHY I USE IT
• SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): Tells you whether the average coin being moved is in profit or loss. SOPR below 1 = people selling at a loss = potential capitulation signal.
• Long-term vs short-term holder supply: When long-term holders start distributing to short-term holders, the top is usually in.
• Realized cap vs market cap (MVRV): When market cap is far above realized cap, the asset is historically overvalued. When below, undervalued.
• Accumulation trend score: A score from 0–1 showing whether large wallets are buying or selling. Scores above 0.9 in a bear = whales are loading up.
Pro Tip: The MVRV Z-Score is one of the most reliable macro cycle indicators ever built. When it enters the red zone, start taking profits. When it enters the green zone, that is historically the best time to accumulate BTC — and altcoins by extension.
5. Token Unlocks
Token Unlocks is a dedicated calendar and tracker for vesting schedules across hundreds of crypto projects. It shows you exactly when team tokens, VC allocations, and ecosystem fund tokens are scheduled to unlock — and how much.
WHY I USE IT
• Avoid buying before cliff unlocks: A cliff unlock is when a large percentage of supply vests all at once. Buying one month before a 20% supply unlock is one of the most common beginner mistakes.
• Identify selling pressure windows: Even good projects face price suppression around major unlock dates as early investors and team members take profits.
• Find re-entry windows: After a major unlock causes a price drop, the selling pressure is typically exhausted. This creates a buying opportunity in solid projects.
• Calendar view: See the entire market's upcoming unlocks at once — useful for knowing which weeks will have sector-wide selling pressure.
Pro Tip: Before you buy any altcoin, paste the ticker into Token Unlocks. If there is a major unlock in the next 60 days, wait. The market will almost always give you a cheaper entry after the unlock event passes.
Final Thought
These five tools cost you nothing but time — and they give you an enormous edge over the average retail investor who is purely reacting to price. The goal is not to predict the market. The goal is to reduce your blind spots.
Use them together. CryptoQuant and Glassnode tell you the macro on-chain picture. Token Terminal tells you which projects are real businesses. CoinMarketCap shows you the tokenomics risk. Token Unlocks tells you when NOT to buy. Run all five before you touch a new position — every single time.
#CryptoTools #CoinMarketCap #CryptoQuant #Glassnode #Insights
$BTC

#BTC‬ <t-73/>#glassnode #new+ <t-76/>#ончейн The dynamics of capital flows, exchange activity, leverage in crypto derivatives and demand from institutions all indicate a jump in risk appetite among Bitcoin investors. Glassnode came to this conclusion.The risk appetite for#Bitcoininvestors is increasing, with growing signs of speculation appearing across capital flows, exchange activity, derivatives leverage, and even institutional demand.