Contract Quantitative Brief #95｜The trend is still continuing, but don’t chase at the highs; I’d rather wait for a pullback to confirm
Market status:
The chart is still somewhat strong—it's continuing in a continuation rhythm. But today isn't the kind of environment where you just rush in.
MYX was pushed up the hardest first: the 6-hour price increase and open interest are both expanding, showing enough heat, but it has also started to stretch.
PIE is still repairing, and its pace is a bit steadier than MYX.
ARX feels more like an alternative: its strength isn’t bad, but open interest hasn’t continued to expand very nicely.
Top candidates
1）MYXUSDT
I’ll watch it first, but I won’t hard-chase at the high.
- Why it’s selected: a slight dip on the 1h timeframe, while on 6h it keeps lifting; OI on 1h increases by nearly 20%; market sentiment is clearly quite hot.
- Observation level: around 0.106—that is, near the 20-day line during the pullback.
- Trigger condition: after the pullback doesn’t break 0.106, it regains and closes back above 0.112; then see whether it continues to expand volume.
- Invalidation condition: it drops straight back below 0.106 and can’t reclaim it—this suggests the strong momentum has turned weak.
- Risk note: coins that have already stretched are the ones most likely to look very strong, and then you chase in and end up getting pulled back.
2）PIEVERSEUSDT
For this one, I’d rather wait for it to give me a pullback—I'm not interested in chasing momentum.
- Why it’s selected: it’s still relatively strong intraday; 1h has turned positive; OI continues to rise; the funding rate is also fairly moderate—this looks like a repair-type continuation.
- Observation level: around 0.78~0.80.
- Trigger condition: after pulling back, it can hold above 0.78, then it regains and stands back near 0.808.
- Invalidation condition: if it breaks below 0.78 and keeps weakening, it means the repair has failed.
- Risk note: if it’s only a rebound without follow-through, it easily turns into a back-and-forth chop.
Alternative to watch / Not chasing yet
- ARXUSDT: the position isn’t as aggressive, but OI on 1h is heading downward. I’m only treating it as an alternative to watch, not a formal follow target.
One-sentence summary:
The market is still somewhat strong today, but it’s more suitable to wait for confirmation than to rush in just because you see a surge; for MYX, watch the pullback strength, and for PIE, watch whether the repair can connect.
Market status:
The chart is still somewhat strong—it's continuing in a continuation rhythm. But today isn't the kind of environment where you just rush in.
MYX was pushed up the hardest first: the 6-hour price increase and open interest are both expanding, showing enough heat, but it has also started to stretch.
PIE is still repairing, and its pace is a bit steadier than MYX.
ARX feels more like an alternative: its strength isn’t bad, but open interest hasn’t continued to expand very nicely.
Top candidates
1）MYXUSDT
I’ll watch it first, but I won’t hard-chase at the high.
- Why it’s selected: a slight dip on the 1h timeframe, while on 6h it keeps lifting; OI on 1h increases by nearly 20%; market sentiment is clearly quite hot.
- Observation level: around 0.106—that is, near the 20-day line during the pullback.
- Trigger condition: after the pullback doesn’t break 0.106, it regains and closes back above 0.112; then see whether it continues to expand volume.
- Invalidation condition: it drops straight back below 0.106 and can’t reclaim it—this suggests the strong momentum has turned weak.
- Risk note: coins that have already stretched are the ones most likely to look very strong, and then you chase in and end up getting pulled back.
2）PIEVERSEUSDT
For this one, I’d rather wait for it to give me a pullback—I'm not interested in chasing momentum.
- Why it’s selected: it’s still relatively strong intraday; 1h has turned positive; OI continues to rise; the funding rate is also fairly moderate—this looks like a repair-type continuation.
- Observation level: around 0.78~0.80.
- Trigger condition: after pulling back, it can hold above 0.78, then it regains and stands back near 0.808.
- Invalidation condition: if it breaks below 0.78 and keeps weakening, it means the repair has failed.
- Risk note: if it’s only a rebound without follow-through, it easily turns into a back-and-forth chop.
Alternative to watch / Not chasing yet
- ARXUSDT: the position isn’t as aggressive, but OI on 1h is heading downward. I’m only treating it as an alternative to watch, not a formal follow target.
One-sentence summary:
The market is still somewhat strong today, but it’s more suitable to wait for confirmation than to rush in just because you see a surge; for MYX, watch the pullback strength, and for PIE, watch whether the repair can connect.