松果大人

Contract Quant Brief #96｜It hasn’t gone bad, but I’d rather wait for a pullback to confirm

The market is still leaning strong. Funding rates overall aren’t out of control, but SYN’s rally has started to show some divergence. I won’t chase buys at this kind of position—I’d rather wait for a pullback and hold, then reassess whether to continue.

Top candidates
1. SYNUSDT
- This line is the strongest: up 27.19% over 24 hours. It’s still extending over the past 6 hours, but the 1-hour chart has slightly pulled back, and open interest is also decreasing—suggesting it’s not a mindless one-way acceleration.
- Watch level: around 0.365
- Trigger condition: after a pullback that does not break 0.365, reclaims the area near 0.378
- Invalidation condition: breaks below 0.350, and the subsequent rebound fails to reclaim

2. GWEIUSDT
- The move is also strong. Funding rates are still relatively moderate. After the 1-hour pullback, open interest continues to rise—this is the type that has follow-through from funding.
- Watch level: 0.154 - 0.155
- Trigger condition: holds 0.155 and then reclaims above 0.165
- Invalidation condition: falls back below 0.145 and cannot rapidly recover

Secondary watch / Not chasing for now
- VELVETUSDT: volume is very large and open interest is also increasing, but it’s stretched farther away from the moving averages. Treat it as a show-of-strength observation for now—no rush to chase.

Risk warning
- This isn’t a “buy the top” setup; it’s more like a chart that says “wait for confirmation before acting.”
- If the pullback can’t hold, missing it means missing it—don’t force entries at the tail end of an acceleration.

One-sentence summary
I’ll first watch for SYN’s pullback confirmation; GWEI is the second choice, and VELVET stays under observation—no chasing.

Contract Quantitative Brief #95｜The trend is still continuing, but don’t chase at the highs; I’d rather wait for a pullback to confirm

Market status:
The chart is still somewhat strong—it's continuing in a continuation rhythm. But today isn't the kind of environment where you just rush in.
MYX was pushed up the hardest first: the 6-hour price increase and open interest are both expanding, showing enough heat, but it has also started to stretch.
PIE is still repairing, and its pace is a bit steadier than MYX.
ARX feels more like an alternative: its strength isn’t bad, but open interest hasn’t continued to expand very nicely.

Top candidates
1）MYXUSDT
I’ll watch it first, but I won’t hard-chase at the high.
- Why it’s selected: a slight dip on the 1h timeframe, while on 6h it keeps lifting; OI on 1h increases by nearly 20%; market sentiment is clearly quite hot.
- Observation level: around 0.106—that is, near the 20-day line during the pullback.
- Trigger condition: after the pullback doesn’t break 0.106, it regains and closes back above 0.112; then see whether it continues to expand volume.
- Invalidation condition: it drops straight back below 0.106 and can’t reclaim it—this suggests the strong momentum has turned weak.
- Risk note: coins that have already stretched are the ones most likely to look very strong, and then you chase in and end up getting pulled back.

2）PIEVERSEUSDT
For this one, I’d rather wait for it to give me a pullback—I'm not interested in chasing momentum.
- Why it’s selected: it’s still relatively strong intraday; 1h has turned positive; OI continues to rise; the funding rate is also fairly moderate—this looks like a repair-type continuation.
- Observation level: around 0.78~0.80.
- Trigger condition: after pulling back, it can hold above 0.78, then it regains and stands back near 0.808.
- Invalidation condition: if it breaks below 0.78 and keeps weakening, it means the repair has failed.
- Risk note: if it’s only a rebound without follow-through, it easily turns into a back-and-forth chop.

Alternative to watch / Not chasing yet
- ARXUSDT: the position isn’t as aggressive, but OI on 1h is heading downward. I’m only treating it as an alternative to watch, not a formal follow target.

One-sentence summary:
The market is still somewhat strong today, but it’s more suitable to wait for confirmation than to rush in just because you see a surge; for MYX, watch the pullback strength, and for PIE, watch whether the repair can connect.

Contract Quant Brief #94｜The continuation is still there, but the highs are a bit stretched. I’d rather wait for a pullback

The market is somewhat strong, but this isn’t a mindless-chase environment. BEATUSDT and SKYAIUSDT are both leading; the upside has already been shown, and they’re still some distance from the 20-day line. The funding rate isn’t extremely high, but the position isn’t cheap anymore either. At this stage, I’ll first look for a pullback to confirm—I don’t want to buy hard late in the move.

Top candidates
1）BEATUSDT
Observation level: Around 2.58.
Trigger: After a pullback, regain and hold above 2.63, then reassess for continuation.
Invalidation: Falls back below 2.52 with volume—indicating the pullback wasn’t caught.
Why selected: Still strengthening on the 6-hour chart, but the 1-hour is pulling back; position changes are also declining, as if it’s consolidating for the next leg.

2）SKYAIUSDT
Observation level: 0.369 to 0.372.
Trigger: After a pullback, reclaim above 0.376, then consider following.
Invalidation: Breaks below 0.365—then the pullback turns weakness.
Why selected: The move is more aggressive; positions are still increasing slightly and the funding rate is also somewhat positive. Sentiment is still there, but it looks more like confirmation after a spike.

Alternative watch / Not chasing for now: CARVUSDT. Position change is very intense, but both the 1-hour and 6-hour are weak. First see if it can turn weakness into strength; otherwise it’s better to monitor, not chase.

Risk warning: This is a continuation market, but the leading tickers are already stretched. Missing the entry cost is high, and chasing the wrong move also comes with high costs. I’d rather wait for a pullback confirmation than chase the very last leg.

Contract Quant Brief #93｜The trend is still intact, but I’d rather wait for a pullback than chase the last leg

Market status:
The continuation is still in place. Funding rates overall remain manageable, which suggests this move isn’t just a pure emotional rush. Today I’ll first watch for a pullback and hold stronger coins around the 20-day line. I don’t really want to hard-chase after a spike.

Top picks
1) BASUSDT
Right now it looks more like a structure of “it’s already up, but it hasn’t broken yet.” The 6-hour gain is sufficient, the 1-hour chart is nearly sideways, and open positions are still decreasing—suggesting there’s been no obvious leverage squeeze.
Observation level: around 0.0444
Trigger: if the pullback holds without breaking and price reclaims and stays above 0.0452, then continue to look for continuation
Invalidation: a drop below 0.0440 means the pullback is turning into a breakdown
Risk warning: it’s fine if it moves slowly, but what’s scary is not being able to get back after the drawdown.

2) BEATUSDT
This one has already pushed quite far. It’s above the 20-day line, so chasing price short term has mediocre cost-effectiveness, but the trend hasn’t been broken yet.
Observation level: around 1.94
Trigger: pull back into the 1.94–1.98 range and stabilize, then look for a second upswing
Invalidation: falling back below 1.93 means the pullback is too deep
Risk warning: it’s better to wait for confirmation now; don’t buy by chasing the surge.

Secondary watch / Not pursuing yet
SLXUSDT: both volume and open interest have increased, but the 1-hour price action is a bit conflicted. Treat it as a backup for now—don’t expand into chasing orders.

One sentence: Today I’d rather wait for BAS’s pullback confirmation. BEA can be watched, but don’t hard-chase. SLX, just watch from the sidelines.

Contract Quant Report #92 | Continuation is still in play, but I'd rather wait for a pullback confirmation

This wave is a continuation pattern, not an emotional explosion. The funding rates are generally restrained; although the front lines are lifting, divergences are starting to show after the upswing. I’d prefer to see if we can catch a pullback rather than chasing the last leg up.

Top Pick 1: IDUSDT
In the last hour and 6 hours, it's still in a continuation, up over 17%, and the funding rate is slightly negative, indicating that the bulls aren't overly crowded yet. It feels more like a strong handover in a bullish trend. I’d rather wait for it to stabilize around 0.0387 to 0.0390, then check if it can regain above 0.0398; if it falls back below 0.0382, I’ll consider it a continuation failure and won’t force the entry.

Top Pick 2: SYNUSDT
This one feels more like a re-selection after a pullback and handover. The trading volume is huge, and while it pulled back a bit in the last hour, it’s still trending up in the 6-hour timeframe, with funding rates not too hot. I’ll keep an eye on the support around 0.317 to 0.320; only after reclaiming 0.323 can we consider it continuing strong. If it loses 0.313, it indicates a failure to maintain momentum, and I’ll let it go.

Alternative Watch / Not Chasing: SLXUSDT
This one's too hot; the 6-hour gains and position increase are too aggressive, making it an uncomfortable spot. I’ll just place it on my watchlist and won’t consider it a formal pick.

Risk Warning: Now is not the time for reckless gambles; the more it's a continuation, the easier it is for those chasing prices to get pulled back at the end. My preference is clear: wait for confirmation before taking cleaner positions.

Contract Quant Report #91 | The trend continues, but I'd rather wait for a pullback; I don't want to chase at the end of the acceleration

Market Status: The chart is still following the structure, and the funding rate isn't out of control, indicating that this move isn't just pure emotional frenzy; however, the intensity is starting to diverge, making position more important than direction.

I'll be watching: POPCAT/USDT, DEXE/USDT.
The third one is just for backup observation: DYDX/USDT, not chasing.

1) POPCAT/USDT
This one has the strongest vibe of "continuing to move"; the hourly position increase is robust, and the price is still above the moving averages. The issue is it’s already showing some acceleration, so don’t mistake chasing highs for confirmation.
Watch level: around 0.0510.
Trigger condition: After a pullback, hold above 0.0510, then regain strength; that’s when it looks more like a second entry in line with the trend.
Failure condition: Dropping back below 0.0500 and not recovering shows this momentum is starting to leak.

2) DEXE/USDT
This one feels more like "strong yet relatively stable"; the trading volume and positions are solid, and the funding rate is still manageable, but the hourly rhythm is a bit dull, making it suitable to wait for confirmation rather than rush in.
Watch level: 23.0—23.1 range.
Trigger condition: Stabilize above 23.1 and continue to push higher, or pull back without breaking and then turn around.
Failure condition: If it can’t hold above the 23.0 line, that indicates insufficient short-term support.

Backup observation / Not chasing: DYDX/USDT. The 6-hour gains have already run out, and short-term it feels like it’s moved a bit; if you want to trade, wait for a cleaner pullback, otherwise you might end up catching the emotional tail.

Risk Warning: This isn’t the stage to "chase the strong"; it’s more like "picking pullbacks within the strong." Only after confirming a pullback should you consider the missed costs; before confirmation, it’s better to trade less and not treat the end as a starting point.

In summary: Look for continuation in POPCAT, watch for pullback confirmation in DEXE, and set DYDX aside for now.

Contract Quant Report #90｜Strength is still there, but I’ll wait for a pullback first, don’t want to hard chase at the end of an acceleration.
Market Status: Continuation is decent, funding rates are generally manageable, but the market is no longer in the "just chase" phase; it feels more like picking positions within a trend.
I’ll be watching BTWUSDT and CLOUSDT. The former seems like it can continue after a pullback, while the latter is a strong breakout with a second confirmation.

Top Candidates
1) BTWUSDT
- Current price 0.09416, strengthening over 6 hours, slight pullback in 1 hour, indicating it’s not a one-sided runaway but more like consolidation.
- Distance from 20 MA -1.561%, from 50 MA -7.969%, position still reasonable, funding rate 0.000246, not much pressure.
- 1-hour holding -7.645%, if it’s just a washout before continuing, it looks more like a pullback window.

Observation Zone: 0.0925~0.0940
Trigger Condition: If it holds above 0.0925 after a pullback and re-establishes above 0.0945, I’ll prioritize looking for continuation.
Invalidation Condition: If it breaks below 0.0910 and can’t recover, I’ll consider this consolidation a failure.
In a nutshell: It’s not the hottest, but it feels like the kind I’m willing to wait for.

2) CLOUSDT
- 24-hour gain 32.829%, still showing continuation over 6 hours, indicating strength is there, but pulling back in 1 hour, testing the patience for chasing.
- Current price 0.23896, standing above the 20/50 MAs, funding rate 0.000659 isn’t exaggerated, 1-hour holding +5.508%, showing there are still buyers willing to step in.
- At this position, I don't want to hard chase; I prefer to wait for confirmation before jumping in.

Observation Zone: 0.234~0.239
Trigger Condition: If it holds above 0.234 during the pullback and re-establishes volume above 0.240, then I’ll consider continuing to follow.
Invalidation Condition: If it drops back below 0.230 and the bounce lacks strength, it shows that the strength is starting to weaken.
In a nutshell: It’s strong, but better to wait for confirmation, not suitable for impulsive chasing.

Alternative Observations / Not Chasing
IDUSDT: Funding rate is slightly negative, still strengthening in 1 hour, but pulling back in 6 hours, holdings are also rising, seems like some funds are testing the waters, not clean enough, I’ll put it on watch, not expanding positions.

Risk Warning
Today is a continuation market, not a blind pump market. Chasing highs is the easiest way to get caught in a pullback; if you really want to trade, try to wait for pullback confirmation.
In summary: I’ll wait for a pullback confirmation on BTWUSDT, only looking for second confirmation on CLOUSDT; IDUSDT is on watch, not chasing.

Contract Quant Report #89 | The strength is still there, but this wave feels more like a pullback confirmation rather than a chase

Market Status: continuation. The charts are still strong, but all three have shown significant stretches, today I prefer to focus on pullbacks and don't want to chase the tail end.

Top Candidates
1) DRIFTUSDT
- 24h +25.3%, 6h +7.5%, 1h almost flat, OI 1 hour +24.1%, funding rate close to neutral
- Current price 0.02118, about 5.5% away from the 20-day line, indicating it’s still in a strong zone, but no longer at a comfortable low
- Observation Range: 0.0200~0.0202
- Trigger Condition: After a pullback, reclaim 0.0212, with continued volume expansion and OI further increasing
- Invalid Condition: Falling below 0.0200 and failing to reclaim on the bounce, or a significant drop in OI
- I will focus on the pullback for this one and won’t chase the last leg at the current price

2) BULLAUSDT
- 24h +18.8%, slight upward shift in 1h, OI 1 hour +18.7%, funding rate still low
- Price 0.005475, about 2.0% away from the 20-day line, structure is closer to the line than DRIFT, pullback space is clearer
- Observation Range: 0.00534~0.00538
- Trigger Condition: Hold near the 20-day line and then stabilize above 0.00550, with OI continuing to rise
- Invalid Condition: Falling below 0.00530 without strength on the bounce, short-term rhythm likely to weaken
- This one feels more like “wait for confirmation before acting,” not “let's rush in now.”

Alternative Watch / Not Chasing: MAGMAUSDT is still moving, but seems more like a mid-level follow, first watching if it can stabilize around 0.489 before deciding whether to enter.

Risk Warning: All three have already gained, what we fear today is high-level continuation followed by divergence. As long as the pullback isn’t stable and OI doesn’t keep up, it’s better to miss out than to catch the last leg.

In Summary: I prefer to wait for pullback confirmation on DRIFT and BULLA, if I’m going to enter, it’ll be on confirmation, not on emotion.

Contract Quant Report #88 | The divergence is still there, I'd rather wait for AXS to pull back, CLO is on watch for a second confirmation

The market is still leaning towards waiting for confirmation, not suitable for chasing. Today's signals are very much like 'there's a chance, but let's see who can hold their ground': AXS is close to the 20-day line, pulling back not too deep, but showing weakness on the 1-hour chart; CLO just had a bounce, but the 6-hour is still looking weak, so let's see if it can turn that bounce into stability.

Top Candidate 1: AXSUSDT
I prefer to look at this type of setup first, not in a rush to chase. The funding rate is slightly negative, the 1-hour and 6-hour charts are slightly retreating, but the open interest on the 1-hour has increased significantly, indicating that the game is still on, the issue is that it looks more like a position of 'waiting for direction' right now.
Observation Level: Around 1.16
Trigger Condition: If it pulls back without breaking below and then re-establishes above 1.18, we’ll look to see if 1.20 can continue to open up.
Invalidation Condition: If it drops back below 1.13, it indicates that this strong push towards the moving average has lost its strength.

Top Candidate 2: CLOUSDT
Its rhythm seems more like a quick lift before checking for support, the 1-hour shows a bounce, but the 6-hour hasn’t completely turned around yet, I won’t treat it as a blind high-chasing target.
Observation Level: Around 0.267
Trigger Condition: After stabilizing above 0.268, if it continues to probe upward to 0.275, then we can consider the bounce has continuation.
Invalidation Condition: If it drops back below 0.255, it shows that the sentiment is still leaning short.

Alternative Watch / Not Chasing: BICOUSDT
It has surged quite a bit, but it's too far from the moving average, making it prone to overheating and easy to give back gains, so I’ll set it aside for observation and won’t chase.

Risk Warning: Today is more suitable for waiting for pullbacks and confirmations, not for chasing blindly; once a confirmation comes out, the cost of missing out will significantly increase, but until there’s confirmation, it’s better to do less than to force a position.

Contract Quant Brief #87 | Divergence is still present, I prefer to wait for MET to retrace, RIF only looks for confirmation, not chasing tails

The market is still giving opportunities, but today feels more like choosing a direction rather than chasing peaks. MET is the one I want to keep an eye on first, it's close to the 20-day moving average, and with no further divergence in the last hour, it seems like it's waiting for a second confirmation; RIF is moving stronger, but it's already distanced from the moving average, and I don't want to chase emotional tails at this position. OPG is only on the watchlist, not expanding.

Top Candidates
1) METUSDT
Brief selection reason: 24-hour increase of 26.87%, basically flat for 1 hour, 6-hour pullback of 1.53%, funding rate slightly negative, OI increased by 33.87% in the last hour, looking more like a strong retracement consolidation.
Observation level: around 0.1355, focus on the support between 0.1321~0.1389.
Trigger condition: must reclaim above 0.1422 and hold steady to be considered a continuation after the retrace.
Invalidation condition: dropping below 0.1288, I will give up at that point.

2) RIFUSDT
Brief selection reason: 24-hour increase of 30.27%, still 9.69% over 6 hours, but OI dropped 16.84% in the last hour, looking like a divergence after a spike, suitable for waiting for a retracement, not for adding more positions.
Observation level: around 0.1012, focus on the retracement reaction between 0.0998~0.1026.
Trigger condition: must reclaim 0.1040, then look towards 0.1055 for continuation.
Invalidation condition: dropping below 0.0984 indicates this sprint is cooling off.

Watchlist / Not chasing: OPGUSDT. The increase is decent, but the funding rate has turned positive, and OI is declining, the rhythm isn't as comfortable as the first two.

Risk Warning: In this type of market, the biggest risk is chasing the tail after a stretch; once a retracement is confirmed, often only price chasing remains. My preference is to first watch MET, RIF only waits for confirmation, not rushing the first move.

Summary in one sentence: Now is not the time for mindless charging; those who can hold after a retracement are worth continuing to watch.

Contract Quantitative Brief #86 | The trend continues, but it’s no longer a mindless chase.

The market is still following through, but we’re starting to see some layers develop in the front. The funding rates are generally not aggressive, indicating that we’re not in a full-blown frenzy; it feels more like the strong are staying strong, and the weak are shifting gears first. Today, I’d prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation rather than chasing the accelerating tails that have already run.

I’ll be looking at GUAUSDT and BASEDUSDT; SYNUSDT will be on my watchlist as a backup, but I won’t be chasing it.

GUAUSDT
This one is relatively more stable in trend, still moving on the 6-hour chart, while the 1-hour is showing slight pullbacks, indicating it’s not just an emotional surge all the way up.
Watch level: around 1.255
Trigger condition: After a pullback, it needs to regain stability above 1.305 to continue trending.
Invalidation condition: Dropping below the 1.234 level indicates that the pullback has messed up the rhythm.
I’d prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation; if it really wants to continue strong, chasing may be the only option left.

BASEDUSDT
This one has more elasticity, with a more aggressive push on the 6-hour chart and increasing positions, indicating that funds are following, but the price has stretched further than GUA.
Watch level: around 0.0855
Trigger condition: First, it needs to hold the pullback, then reclaim above 0.0966; if it breaks above 0.0984 with volume, that’ll look more like a continuation.
Invalidation condition: Dropping below 0.0837, if the pullback doesn’t hold, I’ll set it aside.
For this type of asset, I don’t want to force a chase; waiting for confirmation feels much better than guessing tops and bottoms.

Backup watch / Not chasing: SYNUSDT
This one has volatility and position changes happening too quickly; while it’s hot, the funding rate is leaning bearish, and the 1-hour pullback is heavy, making it prone to a quick surge followed by a washout. Until I see a more stable pullback confirmation, I’ll keep it on the watchlist.

Risk Warning
Today’s focus isn’t on “who’s the hottest,” but rather “who can still hold up after a pullback.” If the market continues to accelerate, it’s better to miss out than to chase at the tail end.

Contract Quant Report #85 | The continuation is still on, but the front has already spread out, I'd rather wait for a pullback.

Market Status: Today is still a continuation phase, the funding rates are overall not high, indicating it's not a fully overheated hard top; however, the front has clearly stretched, and the market looks more like 'waiting for a pullback confirmation', not suitable for chasing the hottest candlestick.

Top Candidates
1) PLAYUSDT
Reason for Selection: The recent trend is still ongoing, moving up for 6 hours, and the funding rates are not high; however, short-term positions have pulled back, suggesting this is more like a washout before moving again, not suitable for aggressively entering at the highs.
Observation Level: around 0.0375
Trigger Condition: Needs to reclaim above 0.0380 after a pullback and stabilize to consider a second continuation.
Invalidation Condition: If it drops back below 0.0368 and fails to rebound, abandon this.

2) TACUSDT
Reason for Selection: The most aggressive gain, short-term positions are still increasing, and the heat hasn’t faded; however, it has clearly stretched, deviating from the moving averages, so the probability of a pullback is not low.
Observation Level: around 0.0235
Trigger Condition: Needs to pull back without breaking, then increase volume to reclaim above 0.0242.
Invalidation Condition: If it directly breaks below 0.0230 after the pullback, it indicates that capital is withdrawing at the highs.

Alternative Watch / Not Chasing: CLOUSDT, the trend is still on, but the rhythm isn't as clear as the first two, I will watch this one first and not place a formal chase order.

Risk Warning: Today is not about 'who's the hottest to chase', but 'who can still catch after a pullback'. Once a pullback confirmation is established, only chasing prices might be left.

Summary in One Sentence: I will first look for PLAY's pullback confirmation, and for TAC, only look for strong reclaiming, not chasing the first overexuberant bullish candlestick.

Contract Quantitative Brief #84 | The momentum continues, but the highs have already stretched out; I’ll wait for a pullback and won’t chase the hottest.

Market Status:
The market is on the stronger side, continuing the trend; however, Lobster USDT, VELVETUSDT, and SKYAIUSDT have all already stretched. Today is more suitable for watching for a pullback confirmation, not for chasing at these highs.

Top Candidates:
1) Lobster USDT
Watch Level: Around 0.0180, first see if it holds during the pullback.
Trigger Condition: After the pullback, if it re-establishes above 0.0180, then check if it continues to strengthen.
Invalidation Condition: If it drops back near 0.0174 and the rebound is weak, short-term scaling starts to loosen.

2) VELVETUSDT
Watch Level: Between 0.44 and 0.45, wait for it to return to this range to see if there’s support.
Trigger Condition: If the pullback doesn’t break 0.44, and it strengthens again, then follow.
Invalidation Condition: If it breaks below 0.435 and continues to show weak bounces, let it go.

Alternative Observations / Not Chasing:
SKYAIUSDT is still in a strong zone, but the 1h has turned weak. Today feels more like a watch level, not for chasing.

Risk Warning:
In this type of continuing trend, the biggest risk is chasing at the highs to catch the last segment. First confirm the pullback and support before considering following.

Summary in One Sentence:
I’ll focus on Lobster and VELVET, with SKYAI on watch; once the pullback is confirmed, it’s likely that only chasing prices will remain.

Contract Quant Report #83 | The trend persists, but I'm waiting for a pullback confirmation, not chasing the hottest

The market structure continues, and the funding rates are overall manageable, indicating that we are not in a one-sided euphoric situation. My feeling is: there's opportunity, but it's better to wait for confirmation rather than jumping in at the first sign of a rally.

Top Candidates
1) ZROUSDT
I'm more inclined to watch the support around 1.10; near 1.11 is still in line with the trend. If it pulls back without breaking, then it has value for further observation.
Trigger Condition: Stabilize above 1.13 and not break on pullback.
Invalidation Condition: Falling back below 1.09 indicates this rally has paused.

2) WLDUSDT
Here, both trading volume and open interest are increasing. I'm focusing on the area around 0.59, but I don’t want to force a position on a small-scale false breakout.
Observation Zone: 0.58-0.59.
Trigger Condition: Look for continuation after stabilizing above 0.60.
Invalidation Condition: Falling below 0.57 indicates insufficient short-term support.

Alternative Watch / Not Chasing
JTOUSDT has more volatility; while it moves quickly, the pullbacks are also deep. For now, I’ll keep it as an alternative watch and not pursue it.

Risk Warning
This is not a mindless acceleration environment; the biggest risk is mistaking a short-term spike for a comfortable entry. Waiting for a pullback and confirmation is more crucial than chasing the initial move.

In summary: I'm focusing on ZRO and WLD, while putting JTO aside for now until the market shows a clearer direction.

Contract Quant Trading Brief #82｜Continuing to watch for pullbacks on Lianxi, don’t mistake the acceleration phase for a comfy spot

The market structure is still holding, and the funding rates are overall quite restrained, indicating that this wave isn’t purely driven by emotional spikes. What’s really worth keeping an eye on are those assets where the trend is intact but hasn’t been overly chased yet; I’d prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation rather than jumping in at the end of a rally.

MITOUSDT now feels like the first observation point. Its strength is still present, with both the 6-hour and 1-hour charts continuing, and the funding rate is very low, while OI is also increasing, suggesting it’s not just a simple short squeeze. The issue is it has already made a move, so I don’t want to chase during a spike; I’d rather wait for it to stabilize around 0.0212 before seeing if it can reclaim the 20 MA area; if it can’t hold after a pullback, it indicates a pause for breath.

EDENUSDT is the second candidate, but it’s further down the line compared to MITOUSDT. The 6-hour gains have been significant, and the price is clearly farther from the 20/50 MAs, making it more about watching for stability around 0.047 rather than chasing the price. Once it stabilizes, we can look for further expansion; if it drops too quickly, it indicates just an impulse, making it unsuitable for a hard follow.

JELLYJELLYUSDT is just a backup observation, not something to chase. It has surged the most, and OI has increased rapidly; although the funding rate isn’t yet outrageous, this positioning feels more like a hot segment that can lead to missed entry costs, but once it pulls back and doesn’t stabilize, the chasing experience usually isn’t pleasant.

My sorting here is pretty simple: first, watch for MITOUSDT’s pullback support, then see if EDENUSDT can hold steady; until there’s confirmation, I won’t consider the acceleration phase as the best entry point.

Risk Warning: Short-term gains have already been substantial, and any pullback could wash out before moving; no certainty in expectations, only confirmations that can be validated.

Contract Quantitative Briefing #81｜Continuing to Look for Pullbacks, No Additional Rush at Speed
Market Status: This wave of continuity is still present, and the funding rate isn’t out of control overall, but the price increase has already heightened the sentiment. My feeling is to first look at targets where the trend hasn’t broken; don’t chase aggressively at the tail end of the surge.

Top Candidates
1) JCTUSDT
This one still looks like it’s in a strong trend continuation, with support on the 1h and 6h charts, and OI is increasing. The position isn’t comfortable, but it’s worth watching after a confirmed pullback.
Observation Level: Around 0.0067
Trigger Conditions: After a pullback that doesn’t break down, reclaim above 0.0071, and OI continues to rise
Failure Conditions: Drops back below 0.0063 with increased volume weakness

2) BEATUSDT
Has significant volume, and the price is not far from the 20-day moving average, making it more likely to give pullback opportunities. Rather than chasing, I’d prefer to wait for it to hold the 20-day line first.
Observation Level: Around 7.70
Trigger Conditions: After holding above 7.70, then look for continuation to 7.90 / 8.00
Failure Conditions: Break below 7.45 and fail to reclaim on the bounce

Alternative Watch: TAOUSDT OI is rising quickly, but it’s also not close to the 20-day line, so I’ll keep it as an alternative and not chase.

Risk Warning: JCT is already quite hot, and BEAT has noticeable volatility; if it really strengthens, there’s a higher chance of chasing the price; don’t rush in just because you see green, waiting for confirmation is a safer play.

In Summary: I’ll first wait for JCT’s pullback confirmation, and keep an eye on BEAT around the 20-day line; once confirmed, it might just be a matter of chasing the price afterward.

Contract Quant Report #80 | Continuation is still in play, but I’d rather wait for a pullback than chase the hottest.

Market Status:
Today we’re still in a consolidation phase, and the funding rate is under control, indicating this rally isn’t just a pure emotional spike; however, the front lines are starting to show signs of stretching. I prefer to 'wait for confirmation' rather than jumping in just because it looks strong.

Top Candidates:
1. CLOUSDT
2. TRUMPUSDT

Why I'm looking at them first:
- CLOUSDT: It’s still in a continuation on both the 1-hour and 6-hour charts, trading volume is active, and open interest is slightly up, with the funding rate being reasonable; the issue is it's not far from the short-term moving average, and it’s a bit overheated on the short term, but the trend hasn't broken down yet.
Observation Zone: Look for support around 0.194; if it can stabilize in the 0.188~0.190 range, then I’d feel more comfortable looking up.
Trigger Condition: After a pullback, it needs to regain the short-term rhythm with increasing volume.
Invalidation Condition: If it breaks below the pullback low and can’t recover, it indicates that the continuation is starting to morph.

- TRUMPUSDT: The 6-hour gains are even stronger, and the 1-hour increase in open interest is quite noticeable, showing that capital is indeed pushing it; however, this feels more like an acceleration phase, and it's not worth chasing just anywhere.
Observation Zone: Look around 2.08~2.12; if it pulls back without breaking, then gives a volume-backed bounce, I’d be more inclined to follow.
Trigger Condition: After a pullback, it needs to regain above 2.16, with no decrease in volume.
Invalidation Condition: If it drops below 2.08 and has a series of weak bounces, it could easily turn into a failed high-altitude relay.

Alternative Observations / Not Chasing:
- SKYAIUSDT: It’s also on the list, but the short-term momentum isn't as smooth as the top two, so I’ll keep an eye on it but won’t treat it as a main line.

Risk Warning:
In this type of continuation phase, the worst two things are: one, chasing at the end of an acceleration, and two, not catching the pullback and rushing to fill. Today, I’ll first see if the strong can hold the pullback; I won’t assume it can keep rising just because it’s going up fast.

Contract Quant Report #79 | Continuation is still on, but I'd rather wait for a pullback confirmation, not in a rush to chase the hottest.

The market continues its structure, and the funding rate is overall manageable, indicating this wave isn't just pure emotional top. Today, I'm keeping an eye on CRV and PYTH, while XPLUS will only be on my watchlist, not treating it as a formal chase target.

CRVUSDT: The gains have already been printed here, with a bit of pullback in the 1-hour, but the 6-hour trend is still in play, and OI in the 1-hour is still climbing, no clear signs of distribution yet. The observation zone is 0.253-0.256; if it can reclaim above 0.259 and hold, it looks more like a continuation; if it fails, watch below 0.248, and if it doesn’t reclaim on a pullback, I’ll set it aside for now.

PYTHUSDT: The trend is also relatively strong, with a light funding rate, and OI in the 1-hour is still increasing, falling into the category of 'still has room to run but not hot enough to warrant defense.' The observation zone is 0.0375-0.0380; if it triggers, we’ll see if it can continue to increase volume around 0.0384; failure point is below 0.0369, and if it drops back, it can easily revert to a range.

XPLUSDT: The 6-hour shot up more aggressively, but OI in the 1-hour has slightly decreased, suggesting a need for caution on continuation; I'm only treating it as a backup watch, not chasing expansion.

Risk Warning: After consecutive surges, the biggest fear is chasing at the end of acceleration. Although the funding rate isn't high, it doesn't mean there won't be a washout first. My approach is straightforward: wait for a solid pullback confirmation, and if there’s no confirmation, I’ll keep my impulse in check.

Contract Quant Report #78 | The continuation pattern is still in play, but I’ll focus on pullbacks that can hold, not chasing the hottest

Market Status:
This wave is still a continuation structure, and the funding rates aren't too squeezed, indicating it’s not purely driven by emotion. However, the price has already risen, so chasing highs has limited room for error. I’ll first look at MAGMA and FOLKS, both of which have solid trends and still see funds flowing in.

Top Candidates:
1) MAGMAUSDT
The strongest point here is that the hourly volume and open interest are both moving up, and the price is still above the short-term moving averages, resembling a strong continuation rather than a slow climb after a retracement.
Observation Level: Around 0.53
Trigger Condition: If it holds above 0.53 and then pushes higher, continue to look for continuation above 0.56
Invalidation Condition: If it drops below 0.52, it suggests the short-term momentum is starting to weaken.

2) FOLKSUSDT
It’s not the hottest one, but it has already established a trend over 6 hours, and the 1-hour pullback looks more like it’s cooling off for buyers. The rates are mild, with no obvious overheating, so I’d prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation.
Observation Level: 2.30-2.34
Trigger Condition: If it pulls back without breaking and then recovers above 2.40, look for direction towards 2.50.
Invalidation Condition: If it drops below 2.26, the pullback would indicate weakening.

Alternative Observations / Not Chasing: IDUSDT. Open interest is rising quickly, and the price is also surging, but the short-term has accelerated a bit. Unless it stabilizes around 0.0275, I’m not looking to chase the second leg.

Risk Warning:
We are currently in a trend-following phase, not a blind chasing phase. If you’re going to trade, prioritize waiting for pullback confirmations; once confirmed, only chasing prices may remain.

Summary in One Sentence:
This round, I prefer to wait for MAGMA’s strong continuation, FOLKS to see after a pullback, and ID to be on watch without aggressively chasing.

Contract Quant Report #78 | The strength is still there, but this time I don’t want to FOMO into the highs

The market has shown continuity in recovery, and the funding rates are generally acceptable. However, the strong assets are no longer at the ‘buy anywhere and feel good’ positions. Today, I prefer to look for a second confirmation after a pullback rather than just jumping in as prices rise.

I’ll be focusing on these two directions:

1) MAGMAUSDT
Price: 0.54992
24-hour increase: 46.53%, still showing slight strength in the last hour, about 2.69% away from the 20-period moving average, which isn’t outrageous; positions increased about 31.88% in the last hour, indicating that funds are still flowing in.

Observation range: 0.5400—0.5500
Trigger condition: If it pulls back but doesn’t break the observation range, then reclaims 0.5650, that would be a strong confirmation.
Invalidation condition: Falls back below 0.5290, and the short-term strong chasing logic is canceled.
My view: It’s the most vigorous today, but the stronger it gets, the less I want to mindlessly chase; a pullback confirmation would be better.

2) FOLKSUSDT
Price: 2.398
24-hour increase: 27.69%, maintaining a 4.35% continuation over the last 6 hours, funding rate at about 0.0313%, not yet exaggerated; but it’s about 6.53% away from the 20-period moving average, making it more susceptible to shakeouts than MAGMA.

Observation range: 2.30—2.40
Trigger condition: If it holds after a pullback, then surges past 2.48, we’ll see if it continues.
Invalidation condition: Falls below 2.18, indicating this acceleration might be pausing.
My view: It feels more like an asset to ‘wait for confirmation’ and isn’t suitable for chasing during a spike.

Alternative watch: IDUSDT has strength, but the funding rate is high, so for now, I’m just watching, not chasing.

Risk warning: The issue today isn’t a lack of opportunities, but rather that the strong segment has already realized some gains. The biggest fear in chasing highs is buying at the peak of emotion; if a pullback confirmation doesn’t come, it’s better to miss out than to leave risk management to luck.

In summary: The strength is still there, but I only trade on confirmation, not impulse.