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Contract Quant Report #91 | The trend continues, but I'd rather wait for a pullback; I don't want to chase at the end of the acceleration
Market Status: The chart is still following the structure, and the funding rate isn't out of control, indicating that this move isn't just pure emotional frenzy; however, the intensity is starting to diverge, making position more important than direction.
I'll be watching: POPCAT/USDT, DEXE/USDT.
The third one is just for backup observation: DYDX/USDT, not chasing.
1) POPCAT/USDT
This one has the strongest vibe of "continuing to move"; the hourly position increase is robust, and the price is still above the moving averages. The issue is it’s already showing some acceleration, so don’t mistake chasing highs for confirmation.
Watch level: around 0.0510.
Trigger condition: After a pullback, hold above 0.0510, then regain strength; that’s when it looks more like a second entry in line with the trend.
Failure condition: Dropping back below 0.0500 and not recovering shows this momentum is starting to leak.
2) DEXE/USDT
This one feels more like "strong yet relatively stable"; the trading volume and positions are solid, and the funding rate is still manageable, but the hourly rhythm is a bit dull, making it suitable to wait for confirmation rather than rush in.
Watch level: 23.0—23.1 range.
Trigger condition: Stabilize above 23.1 and continue to push higher, or pull back without breaking and then turn around.
Failure condition: If it can’t hold above the 23.0 line, that indicates insufficient short-term support.
Backup observation / Not chasing: DYDX/USDT. The 6-hour gains have already run out, and short-term it feels like it’s moved a bit; if you want to trade, wait for a cleaner pullback, otherwise you might end up catching the emotional tail.
Risk Warning: This isn’t the stage to "chase the strong"; it’s more like "picking pullbacks within the strong." Only after confirming a pullback should you consider the missed costs; before confirmation, it’s better to trade less and not treat the end as a starting point.
In summary: Look for continuation in POPCAT, watch for pullback confirmation in DEXE, and set DYDX aside for now.
Market Status: The chart is still following the structure, and the funding rate isn't out of control, indicating that this move isn't just pure emotional frenzy; however, the intensity is starting to diverge, making position more important than direction.
I'll be watching: POPCAT/USDT, DEXE/USDT.
The third one is just for backup observation: DYDX/USDT, not chasing.
1) POPCAT/USDT
This one has the strongest vibe of "continuing to move"; the hourly position increase is robust, and the price is still above the moving averages. The issue is it’s already showing some acceleration, so don’t mistake chasing highs for confirmation.
Watch level: around 0.0510.
Trigger condition: After a pullback, hold above 0.0510, then regain strength; that’s when it looks more like a second entry in line with the trend.
Failure condition: Dropping back below 0.0500 and not recovering shows this momentum is starting to leak.
2) DEXE/USDT
This one feels more like "strong yet relatively stable"; the trading volume and positions are solid, and the funding rate is still manageable, but the hourly rhythm is a bit dull, making it suitable to wait for confirmation rather than rush in.
Watch level: 23.0—23.1 range.
Trigger condition: Stabilize above 23.1 and continue to push higher, or pull back without breaking and then turn around.
Failure condition: If it can’t hold above the 23.0 line, that indicates insufficient short-term support.
Backup observation / Not chasing: DYDX/USDT. The 6-hour gains have already run out, and short-term it feels like it’s moved a bit; if you want to trade, wait for a cleaner pullback, otherwise you might end up catching the emotional tail.
Risk Warning: This isn’t the stage to "chase the strong"; it’s more like "picking pullbacks within the strong." Only after confirming a pullback should you consider the missed costs; before confirmation, it’s better to trade less and not treat the end as a starting point.
In summary: Look for continuation in POPCAT, watch for pullback confirmation in DEXE, and set DYDX aside for now.
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