- a local BTC bottom at $17,600 in June - then a +42% rise throughout August - reaching the final cycle low in November 2022 at around $15,500.
Now we’re seeing a similar situation. If history repeats, Bitcoin could rise into August before reaching the final minimum in Q4, staying consistent with its 4-year cycle.
If the local low in June is $57,700, then a 42% increase from there would put BTC at around $82,000.
What did it give? absolutely nothing—same cake, same price, the hype brought exactly 0 results.
The only thing it did was erase the TON history, and we’ll never know how much investors lost when they bought TON at $8 during the hype with stories about how TON would be worth $20.
An era has passed, goodbye, legend, RIP $TON—press F.
I hope Pavel comes up with something to promote GRAM, like the TG apocalypse that brought the hype on Telegram, such as Notcoin, Dogs, etc.
Bitcoin has just closed its monthly candle below the 50-day moving average and reached a 27-month low.
The monthly MACD is currently more negative than ever since 2022, signaling exhaustion. However, the broader economy shows positive signs:
- The ISM PMI Index is at 54, a 4-year high. - Oil prices have fallen below $68.50, which will reduce inflation. - The job market is improving, with the number of new job openings at a 2-year high.
Bitcoin’s chart follows the typical 4-year cycle, suggesting a final capitulation within the next 2–3 months before the next upswing.
To show strength, Bitcoin needs to break above the 200-day moving average at $62,648; otherwise, sellers will remain in control.
In the last cycle, the best accumulation phase began when BTC fell below the 50-day moving average, with the RSI and MACD reaching new cycle lows. We have reached this part of the cycle again.
COLLAPSE: Oil prices have fallen by 43%, for the first time in 4 months dropping below $68.50.
Right now, they are only $1 above the pre-war level, and that’s good. Lower oil prices mean slowing inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates.