Bitcoin's price structure points to an upward trend, but the fundamentals remain weak. These factors briefly improved toward neutral when Bitcoin recovered from the $60,000 level, and have rebounded since regaining the $70,000 level. But this isn't enough. The price can still rise. However, for a trend reversal to occur in the medium term, Bitcoin needs confirmation from strong or neutral fundamentals.
Bitcoin has entered the fray: it closed the week above its true market average ($78,000) for the first time since late January. This level is defining the market's direction. In 2022, losing it led to a prolonged decline. It recovered in 2023 after months of consolidation. Holding it reverses the trend; losing it brings back downward pressure. This week is crucial.
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The US stock market lost $400 billion because OpenAI failed to meet its pre-launch revenue and user targets, dampening the AI hype and dragging down chip and technology companies, including NVIDIA.
Bitcoin's next test is breaking through the cost base established by new investors ($79,000).
If Bitcoin can maintain this price level above $65,000 without falling, the probability of a structural bottom forming will increase significantly.
Bitcoin is currently attempting to form a bottom, but all indicators are not yet complete, and the next three to six weeks will reveal just how important this is.
Three things happen at the end of a bear market:
1) The price clearly breaks through the cost base for new investors (the circles).
2) Excessive optimism turns into a frantic rush to buy, driven by an insatiable desire to seize opportunities.
3) This leads to a rise in the cost base (the red line turns green).
Binance dominates the crypto market with unprecedented scale.
User assets on the Binance platform are around $150 billion, with Binance controlling over 38% of global spot trading volume, according to CryptoQuant data.
This reflects Binance's level of expansion and power, leaving the rest of the market still trying to catch up.
A massive weekly Bitcoin options contract worth $8.5 billion (109,000 BTC) is due to expire this Friday at 11:00 AM Mecca time on the Deribit platform.
The maximum liquidation limit is $72,000 with a buy-sell ratio of 0.91.
The current price is hovering around $76,000.
We are facing a potential price drop to the liquidation zone of $71,000-$72,000.
Long-term investors accumulated 303,000 BTC during the month, compared to the sale of 290,000 by speculators, with MicroStrategy buying around 53,000 Bitcoin.