大梦

She is such a girl. In 2018, she bought some Bitcoin because of her friend's trust and then stopped asking about it. Because she didn't know what Bitcoin was. At this time, she started her entrepreneurial journey, entered the clothing industry, founded her own chain brand, and invested in the beauty industry and yoga studios... It was because of these experiences in traditional industries that she fell in love with the atmosphere of freedom, love and creation in the WEB3 industry.

Revolut removes $USDT. In the comments, everyone keeps shouting “run, run.” But this has nothing to do with whether USDT is safe or not—Europe just wants to make room for its own compliant and stablecoins. What you should worry about isn’t whether you can withdraw—it’s your stablecoin in your hands. One day, if someone freezes it with a single sentence, you won’t even be able to touch the door. #Revolut将下架USDT $USDT

June nonfarm came out at 57,000 and the market’s first reaction was, “Oh no, the economy is going to be toast.” The next thing you know, the odds of a rate hike suddenly dropped to 50%. The $Dow Jones then turned around and hit a new all-time high. The logic is actually pretty straightforward: weak employment data means the Fed doesn’t dare to move recklessly, so money is free to run into risk assets.

What’s kind of interesting is that while stocks here are going absolutely wild, in crypto the number $BTC is still hovering above 61,000, slowly crawling up, and $SOL also hasn’t kept pace. With the same kind of risk asset, one is trying to hit the ceiling while the other is pinned to the floor—this suggests liquidity hasn’t really returned to our pool yet. The money first went to places it knows better.

I don’t think this is a bad thing. The script where equities lead and crypto catches up has been played more than once before. The key is whether the liquidity that leaks out after this nonfarm will be willing to turn a corner and come into our side. When it does, it’s usually during those most quiet few days over here 😌

#June nonfarm 57,000; rate-hike odds fall to 50% #道指创历史新高 $SOL

Half the people in the square were shouting $BTC —since the January peak, it’s fallen 44%, and the headlines are more terrifying than the last, like the sky is about to fall. But on the very same day, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $220 million in a single day, and the price quietly climbed back above $61,000. Put these two things together, and it gets interesting.

When retail traders get scared by wording like “down 44% from the peak” and cut their losses, institutions are quietly picking up the slack through ETFs. The drawdown is meant to scare people—the net inflow is the real money being put in.

Add June employment data cooling off, and the Fed’s interest-rate hike expectations easing along with it, and once liquidity expectations improve, risk assets always react first. At $BTC , instead of staring at how much farther it is from the peak, why not look at who’s taking bids at this price?

Anyway, I trust wallet votes more than clickbait headlines. What do you think—this is a dip-buy, or are we catching a falling knife?

#Bitcoin ETF single-day net inflow of $221.7 million #Bitcoin rebounds to above $61,000 $BTC

$TIA Celestia V9 mainnet upgrade is live, and the community is once again calling for narratives. But when it comes to mainnet upgrades, the “good news” being realized is usually at its highest point on the very day. There are countless examples. This time, who dares to bet it’s different? #Celestia部署V9主网升级 $TIA

To be honest, $M this rebound from the bottom is nearly up 150%. A few guys around me who cut on the floor a couple of days ago are all silent now 😅 This is what’s most magical about meme coins—you think it’s completely dead, but then a single line pulls it back and slaps you in the face.

For this round of MemeCore’s bounce, I don’t think you can just look at the K-line—more of it is emotional repair. Earlier, the whole sector got smashed so badly there was no hype; once some funds circle back to probe the market, shorts pile in, and the upside elasticity becomes especially strong. But the plain truth is, this kind of rally comes fast and goes fast. Anyone who chases in should know that today’s +150% and tomorrow’s giving back half are all part of the same logic.

Meme coins have never been value investing—they’re a game of human nature. Don’t treat the rebound as a reversal. An emotion-driven market is all about quick in, quick out; whoever treats it like a faith is very likely the one left holding the bag.

#MemeCore’s M token rebounds nearly 150% #MemeCoin
\$M

The first half is over just like that. $BTC printed the worst half-year since 2022. Even in June alone it fell by more than 20%, and kept getting hammered all the way down to 58,000. Honestly, when I saw these numbers, my first reaction wasn’t panic—it was more like numb 😅

Today, things overseas are even more lively. South Korea’s KOSPI crashed by nearly 8% in a day. Asian chip stocks got dumped across the board, and Micron also dropped by 10 points. When risk appetite pulls back across the board, crypto—at least in theory—should be lying flat along with it.

But what’s weird is this—$ETH didn’t follow the overseas market’s plunge today. Instead, it rose nearly 6% against the trend, and volume also surged to the top. While $BTC is entangled in a pile of negatives, with BlackRock/IBIT trimming positions, the money is quietly shifting toward ETH.

I’m not saying this means a reversal. The half-year line is right there—nobody should talk tough. It’s just that when everyone is staring at this broken ledger of Bitcoin, the money’s feet have already moved. In this kind of market, watching charts is less important than seeing who’s secretly adding.

Do you think this move is ETH’s independent trend, or the last breath before a broad sell-off?

#比特币经历2022年来最差上半年 #亚洲股市因芯片股抛售下跌 \$ETH

The whole market is green to the point of panic—fear index at 20, a South Korean stock market circuit breaker, and Bitcoin’s worst half-year. Out of just $MORPHO , one person has risen 12% against the trend—are there really people quietly building positions, or is it another wave of people rushing to find a bagholder? Comment if you dare to get on board. #MORPHO surges over 12% $MORPHO

Silver jumped in a single night to over $60 per ounce. Oil prices here are still drifting lower, and the Korean won is even weaker—back to the level of the 2009 crisis. With several signals lining up together, the overall picture just doesn’t look right. Money is hiding in old “safe” assets; no one is willing to take risk assets. $BTC has also slipped to 59250. The Fear & Greed index on the square went straight down to 19—extreme fear.

An interesting point is this: in times like this, people would rather hold silver and gold than trust those new stories on-chain. The market’s language is very straightforward—what you need is certainty, not imagination 😅

Over the past couple of days, I’ve reduced the exposure of my positions a bit. It’s not necessarily bearish; I just don’t want to be the last person to enter in an atmosphere like this. Once these external pressures ease and the dust settles, risk assets will finally have the mindset to breathe again. #Spot silver rises 3% to $60.10 per ounce #韩元跌至2009年以来最弱 $SLV

Let me share a fairly interesting comparison. In the past two days, $BTC dropped to 59250; the market panic index was immediately smashed down to 18, in the “extreme fear” range. The comments section was full of wailing—so many people were asking whether this means it’s going to turn out badly.

Then, just turned around, I saw news that JD Vance disclosed that he holds Bitcoin. On one side, retail investors are scared and selling off; on the other, people at the level of the political establishment are quietly holding.

I’m not saying this necessarily means it has to go up—when it’s time to fall, it still falls. But every time the extreme fear reading comes out, retail sentiment and the moves of these big figures always seem to go in opposite directions. Every time I see that mismatch, it feels rather subtle 🤔

I want to hear what you think: for someone with Vance’s status to publicly say he holds coins, is it purely personal asset allocation, or can you read some other signals from it? Cast your vote in the comments section.

#比特币跌至59250美元 #JD万斯披露持有比特币 $BTC

The whole market got smashed down to 59,250 overnight. The panic index is at 16, and the whole internet is crying in unison. $XRP only fell 0.2%, steady as if it never even took a seat. Is it the main players quietly propping up the market, or does it simply haven’t been its turn to get hit yet? If you’re fully loaded with $XRP , raise your hand. #比特币跌至59250美元 #极度恐惧 $XRP

Stayed up late watching the charts and nearly lost my balance—silver actually touched $60 an ounce. The last time I saw this price was in an old news article 😅 Meanwhile, crude is going the other way and falling. A rise here and a fall there is really the same story—money is hiding in whatever can be held onto.

Risk-off sentiment is turned up to max, and crypto gets bled. The greed index is only 17—extreme fear—$BTC has also kept sinking all the way until it’s near the lower edge of 60,000. It’s not that the coin itself suddenly has some new negative catalyst; it’s simply that everyone in the room is cutting risk. Whoever has more volatility gets cut first.

If you ask me, silver surging this hard might not be a bad thing. Once it rises to a certain level, the risk-hedging demand tops out. Money squeezed out of precious metals has to find somewhere to go. But nobody can time this rhythm perfectly—there’s no rushing it. Keeping a bit of $PAXG as a hedge feels pretty comfortable—you can catch a little on both the up and down moves.

#原油价格下跌 #白银创新高 $PAXG

The Supreme Court’s move is pretty interesting: on the one hand, it stops Cook from moving to prevent the Federal Reserve; on the other, it rules that the president can directly fire SEC and CFTC commissioners.

In plain terms: the people who control the money can’t be moved, but the people who control crypto—going forward, the White House can swap them out whenever it wants.

For our crypto community, this is no small matter. The SEC and the CFTC are originally the two big blades of crypto regulation. Now the handles of these two blades have been handed directly to the president. Whoever comes to power—and whatever policies they want to push—will basically be a one-sentence decision. Optimistically, the regulatory stance might become looser; worst case, policy stability will depend entirely on people’s moods.

By the way, over the past couple of days, search interest in $SOL has clearly been trending upward. Capital is still highly sensitive to marginal changes in policy. This “regulation” storyline is destined to be one of the main themes this year—don’t just stare at the K-line.

#SupremeCourtRulesPresidentCanFireSEC/CFTCCommissioners #AzerbaijanDraftsVirtualAssetRegulationBillRequiringCentralBankLicensing
$SOL

Fear Index 17, extreme fear—everywhere is shouting that the bottom is in. But when we truly get to this level, there aren’t many who actually dare to pull the trigger. $SUI stayed halted for a few days with no one paying attention; I actually think that kind of “no one competing for it” is kind of interesting. Now, if you’re still in the venue and haven’t sold a single share, drop a 1 in the comments. #SUI $SUI

That ruling from the Supreme Court last night was quite interesting—it blocked Trump’s effort to replace Fed Governor Cook. On the surface, it looks like the Fed’s independence has been preserved, so the market should be able to relax. But the way I’m reading the charts, this isn’t over at all—the script for the White House and the Fed going head-to-head has only just begun. How the rate-cut pace will unfold next, and ultimately who has the final say—everything is still a variable.

For the crypto world, what’s truly valuable isn’t the outcome of this ruling, but the signal it hints at: the battle over who controls monetary policy is now on full display. Once the market starts to doubt the credibility of the interest-rate path, risk-off sentiment and liquidity expectations will swing back and forth repeatedly. Assets that are most sensitive to liquidity—like $ETH $SOL —will only see volatility increase, not decrease.

Don’t rush to believe that everything is settled just because there’s a ruling like this. Political standoffs like this often get messier the longer they drag on 🤷

#美最高法院阻止特朗普罢免美联储理事库克 #美联储 $ETH

Strategy approved an additional $2 billion for share buybacks—where does Saylor, this guy, get all this money from?

I did the math. Their current average holding cost is around the low $30,000s, and at today’s price they’re up nearly double. But the problem is he keeps adding—every time there’s a pullback, he adds, like a perpetual motion machine.

The yen has fallen to its lowest level in 40 years today, and Japan’s funding pressure is only getting worse. The last time the yen sharply depreciated, carry-trade funds flooded into U.S.-dollar assets. This time, if the Bank of Japan continues to do nothing, hot money will likely keep running toward dollar-denominated assets—including $BTC .

On one side, Saylor is疯狂 stockpiling. On the other, global capital is being forced to find an exit. When the fear index hits 17, that’s actually when these smart funds get the most active.

Retail is getting cut, institutions are sweeping up—every cycle follows the same script.

#Strategy授权20亿美元回购 #Yen per U.S. dollar falls to a 40-year low

$BTC

The Dow hits a new high, tech stocks rebound across the board, and in the crypto world the fear index is still “playing dead” at 17.

What’s interesting is that when you read today’s two news items together, they have a certain flavor: the Supreme People’s Court says a president can’t simply dismiss Federal Reserve governors, but can dismiss SEC and CFTC commissioners.

Translation: don’t touch monetary policy—but when it comes to crypto regulation, I’m the one in charge.

For $BTC , this is actually a somewhat positive signal—there’s a big increase in the probability of a SEC personnel change, which would mean that in the second half of the year, those ETFs that were previously stuck on approvals and those projects that were stuck on compliance might suddenly get cleared.

US stocks already moved first. The Dow making a new high isn’t driven by retail investors—it’s institutions re-allocating risk assets. Crypto will catch up eventually; it’s just that everyone is still immersed in panic and hasn’t reacted yet.

When do you think BTC will follow the US stock market’s pace?

#美股科技股反弹道指创新高 #Supreme People’s Court rules that the president may dismiss SEC and CFTC commissioners

$BTC

The Iran-Israel ceasefire has happened, futures have risen, and everyone is shouting that it’s good news. But I can’t shake the feeling that this move is a bit fake.

Look at the correlation between the S&P 500 equal-weight index and the S&P 500 itself—it has already fallen to the lowest level in history. What does that mean? Only a handful of big-name stocks are propping up the gains, while a large portion of the market hasn’t really caught up. When the Nasdaq broke below its 50-day moving average last week, hardly anyone was talking about it. Now, with a geopolitical “good news” headline, people think we’re back to a bull market?

Also, what the Federal Reserve has been hinting at lately is clearly more hawkish—so much so that it’s even suggesting rate hikes may be coming. In this environment, valuation pressure on tech stocks can only keep getting worse. $NKE reports earnings tomorrow, with an expected EPS of only 0.13, and consumer conditions aren’t exactly great either.

Back to crypto: the Fear & Greed Index is 16—extreme fear. The $BTC ETF saw net outflows of nearly $1.8 billion last week. If the U.S. stock market is only bouncing and not truly reversing, then there’s even less to expect from crypto.

Let’s wait and see. Anyway, I don’t want to chase anything right now.

#美伊停火

$BTC

Tech stocks get collectively hammered as funds run away

The Nasdaq fell for four straight days; this week alone it’s down 4.4%. Apple dropped 6% in a single day just because it raised the prices of the iPad and MacBook. Microsoft also fell 3%, saying the Xbox will be priced higher. The big names all raised prices—and got beaten up by the market. That shows just how fragile sentiment is right now.

But interestingly, the Dow rose 0.7% this week instead. Money is moving into the healthcare, financials, and industrial sectors. This isn’t a collapse narrative—it’s funds doing a style rotation. Tech got too crowded, so everyone is stepping out to catch their breath.

Add to that the Fed’s rate-hike expectations being repriced again, and near-term volatility likely won’t be small. Things are even worse in Asia-Pacific: Korea’s Kospi plunged 6% today, while Japan’s Nikkei is down nearly 4%.

It just feels like this round of tech pullback hasn’t fully played out yet. But if you really want to bottom-fish, you may need to wait for another round of panic to wash through...

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Fear & Greed Index at 16, Bitcoin broke below the 200-week moving average, and the square is in despair. At a time like this, you tell me $AAVE pulled up over 8 points within the day, with a trading volume of $34 million?

I thought about it, and the logic isn't complicated.

Every time there’s a major dip, on-chain liquidations spike, and for AAVE, that just means more business. Lending protocols don't fear volatility; they fear inactivity. The more panic in the market, the more leveraged traders rush to pay back loans or get liquidated, which actually boosts AAVE's protocol income. This isn't hype; it's solid cash flow logic.

Looking deeper: during this downturn, DeFi blue chips are holding up much better than altcoins, with funds fleeing to protocols that generate real yields. Check the TVL data; AAVE's has actually increased over the past two weeks, indicating that big players are depositing assets to earn interest as a hedge, which also increases token demand.

To put it simply, the stuff that can rise in a bear market is either being propped up by whales to exit liquidity or has fundamentals that can truly hold up. AAVE falls into the latter category; this thing survived the darkest days of the last bear market without any systemic risk.

But let's be real, in such a harsh environment, showing strength doesn't signal a bull market. It's more likely a short-term risk-off behavior; once BTC stabilizes, those funds might flow out again to chase higher-performing assets.

#比特币跌破200周均线 #恐惧和贪婪恐

$AAVE