懂币猫

#美股 #BTC

In the last two months, I’ve barely made any gains from crypto contracts
But I'm still sitting at the top of the annual profit leaderboard
What does that indicate?

It’s pretty straightforward; it shows that making money in crypto is tough right now
Other crypto traders aren’t raking it in either, or else I wouldn't still be in first place

For half a year, I've been urging everyone in my streams to trade U.S. stocks
I spend almost half of each stream discussing U.S. stocks, gold, and silver
When I first started streaming, I even shared my returns from U.S. stocks, and they were on par with my crypto performance

Through my streams and trading teachings, I’ve always hoped everyone could earn more and walk the right trading path with solid trading principles. Recently, I’ve noticed there are hardly any discussions about U.S. stocks in the plaza; such a great market is getting little attention, and it honestly feels disheartening

As traders, when the conditions are right, we must avoid being dogmatic and be more adaptable
I often say that traders should be like water: flexible and variable, not like an old pigeon
At the same time, we need to learn to allocate our funds wisely, pursuing the easier profits in more active markets

Here's how I allocate my positions and time:
Crypto 40%
U.S. Stocks 40%
A-shares 5%
Gold 5%
Some treasure fund 4% (barely takes time, buy and forget)
Wealth management 3% (barely takes time, buy and forget)
Others 3% (barely takes time, buy and forget)

Now, all major platforms have U.S. stock contracts available, just fire up your exchange app
Head into the contract section
In the dropdown menu, find #TradFi , which is filled with recently popular U.S. stock contracts

Brothers, explore more and don’t let yourselves get trapped in an information cocoon

Back on top of the annual leaderboard

The whole world is criticizing Zuckerberg

Many people don’t realize that behind the U.S. stock market there has long existed a very stable, structural buy-side demand

These funds are not made by people watching the news every day and trading, nor do they constantly enter and exit based on whether valuations are high or low. Instead, they come from U.S. retirement plans such as pension funds, 401(k)s, IRAs, employer matching, automatic payroll deductions, target-date funds, index funds… These institutional designs cause large amounts of money to keep flowing into the capital markets in a way that is almost like an “automatic investment plan”

A significant portion of that ultimately gets allocated to broad U.S. equity indices—especially S&P 500, total-market index funds, as well as target-date funds with U.S. stocks as the core

So, the U.S. stock market has an important underlying support over the long term:

No matter whether valuations are expensive or cheap in the short run, whether the news is noisy, or whether market volatility is high or low—so long as Americans continue working, wages continue being paid, and the retirement system continues to operate, some portion of funds will enter the market month after month

This isn’t sentiment-driven buying; it’s institutional buying

What’s behind it is payroll withholding, employer matching, tax advantages, default allocations, and a passive investment framework

It may not be able to prevent bear markets, but it is one of the most stable and hardest-to-dislodge long-term sources of bullish positioning in U.S. equities

#SNDK #MU

Just finished going live. A lot of brothers are guessing the top—saying you should short. You guys are really bold.

Why does everyone get so extreme? It’s either a huge spike up or a huge crash down—shouldn’t consolidation be the norm?

But look at Sandisk’s candlestick chart. At most, it only suggests that the rise trend from April might shift into a range-bound “washout”/consolidation. After all, it climbed 3x since April. If the uptrend slows down a bit, isn’t that normal? An 18-year-old college kid can’t possibly stay in bed all night without sleeping, right?

It’s exactly the same as the earlier washout. Until there’s a top structure and signs appear, just ignore the short button!

#海力士

Hailixai plunges -14.57%

Alright, this round can basically be declared a break for a while. The daily trend has entered a shorting cycle, and the price action is moving into a major choppy range and shakeout phase.

If Hailixai can’t be pulled back over the next day or two, then all related semiconductor stocks need to be careful.

#OpenAI

OpenAI's American-style “get-rich-or-die” political deal

It may end up becoming the second “US state-owned enterprise” after INTC. I have to say Sam Altman’s political awareness is really high.

The AI race is no longer a competition between companies—it’s a war between two major countries, the US and China. It can only be won, not lost. The winner will be the boss of Earth for the next 100 years.

#ETH

Retail investors love Ethereum, so retail investors need to learn to accept reality

When people ask me how to be happy, I always say: lower your expectations—make them match reality. Holding unrealistic expectations all the time is destined to bring a lifetime of suffering

Don’t have unrealistic expectations for Ethereum. When Ethereum went to 10,000, how many retail investors were fooled into getting on board? Do you believe EOS can reach 500?

It’s been three years. Since the bull market started in 2023, I’ve been criticizing Ethereum—criticizing it through this bear market as well. Three years still isn’t enough to help you recognize what’s really going on with a coin? In three years, hasn’t the ETHBTC exchange rate basically behaved like the ratio between ordinary altcoins and Bitcoin?

In the next bull market, you should put your main position into Bitcoin—not gamble on uncertain Ethereum. For dollar-cost averaging, invest in Bitcoin and QQQ. First ensure the high-probability things, then go after the low-probability, high-risk moves

There are more than 8 billion people in this world, and everyone has their own views. And a trustworthy viewpoint is either supported by reliable data or backed by logic that can stand up to scrutiny. What is the logical support for Ethereum? Everyone, please advise 🙏🙏🙏

#海力士

Hynix rose 15-fold in one year

May 2025 price: $140
June 2026 peak: $1900

In the meantime, it went through three major uptrend continuation (intermediate) patterns, using consolidation to replace a decline:
First: June 2025 to September 2025
Second: November 2025 to December 2025
Third: February 2026 to April 2026

Average pullback lasted 2 months, and after the adjustment the average gain was 100%+

From April to July, we made two months’ worth of gains from storage. Then entering July, Hynix—and the daily-level trends of all storage stocks, including #SNDK #MU #DRAM —may also be forming a fourth uptrend continuation adjustment pattern.

It’s still too early to say the storage market cycle is over. What we only need to check now is whether Hynix’s candlesticks are consolidating instead of truly falling. If so, then all bearish news is only there to shake out people’s positions and lure away their chips. The purpose of this consolidation is to wash out all short-term, high-leverage speculative traders.

Just watch whether the candlesticks break down—shouldn’t be hard, right?

#Meta

Meta sells excess computing power and moves into cloud business

It feels like the market is already pricing in that Meta is going to cut capital expenditure first

The impact on storage going forward needs a few trading days to observe

#BTC

Why do many people think Bitcoin’s bottom is at 60,000?

No wonder you’re losing so much money

#INTC #AMAT #LRCX #ASML

The tracked devices sector stocks have all reached new highs. The logic continues—so the hold continues.

The core contradiction in the global AI hardware industry chain is shifting from insufficient compute capacity to expanded storage production. South Korea’s push for Samsung and SK hynix to carry out large-scale capital expenditures (Capex) over the next few years means the industry is entering a supply-response phase.

And since storage demand is not infinite, the real question worth discussing is not: who is expanding capacity—Hynix, Samsung, or Micron?

1）Industry chain logic:
AI demand ↑ → HBM demand ↑ → Storage CapEx ↑ → Equipment orders ↑ → Materials ↑ → Packaging ↑ → Storage profits

2）Capital flows:
South Korea expands construction → purchases equipment → purchases materials → purchases advanced packaging → and only then begins producing HBM.
Therefore, equipment orders are determined first and revenue is recognized the fastest. Equipment companies benefit first, followed by materials companies and advanced packaging companies. Storage companies, however, have to wait until capacity is built before they can truly start generating profits.

#交易日记
2026/7/1

U.S. stocks’ risk appetite continues to recover, as technology takes over the rebound

SPY rose 0.78% to close at 746.77, QQQ rose 1.70% to close at 736.40, and VIX fell 6.80% to close at 16.45. This is a very good continuation candlestick pattern. Yesterday, SPY reclaimed 740, and today it pushed toward 750. Yesterday QQQ reclaimed 720, and today it surged to around 736. Technology stocks are once again the main theme in the market.

The strongest sector today is semiconductors: SMH rose 3.78% and SOXX rose 4.30%. NVDA gained 2.63%, AVGO rose 1.42%, MRVL jumped 7.25%, DELL rose 4.06%, SNDK climbed 10.89%. This indicates that the repair in AI hardware and semiconductors is continuing to spread.

What’s different from the past few days is that today it’s not just one direction—storage—running higher. NVDA, MRVL, DELL, and SNDK are all up, suggesting that buying interest in chips and AI hardware has broadened.

Technology is the absolute main line today. XLK rose 2.76% and ranked first among the 11 major sectors. Industrial XLI gained 1.35% and performed well too. However, real estate XLRE fell 1.98%, consumer staples XLP dropped 1.54%, utilities XLU fell 1.48%, and health care XLV declined 1.29%.

This is a classic return of risk appetite: funds withdraw from defensive sectors and return to buy technology and growth.

IGV rose 0.79%. OKTA rose 3.91%, ZS rose 2.58%, and CRWD rose 2.72%, but CRM fell 0.80%, NOW fell 0.69%. This suggests software is starting to recover, but there’s still differentiation within the group. Security software is clearly stronger than traditional enterprise software. If IGV can continue to strengthen, the quality of the technology rebound should improve further.

Among big tech, TSLA rose 2.13%, MSFT rose 1.21%, GOOG rose 0.58%, and META rose 0.12%. AMZN fell 0.75%. This structure indicates that big tech overall is repairing, but not every heavy-weight is strong.

There is also partial recovery in AI cloud and compute infrastructure: NBIS rose 5.75% and CRWV rose 4.22%. The rebound in NBIS and CRWV is a good signal, but the whole sector still needs more stocks to follow.

At the macro level, there’s a bit of a contradiction. VIX has fallen to 16.45, which is positive. But the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.418%, and the U.S. dollar index is also slightly higher at 101.287. In theory, rising rates and a stronger dollar would weigh on technology. Yet today technology remains strong. This suggests today’s tech rally is driven mainly by active buying and short-covering, not just a pure macro tailwind.

Next, the two most important levels are:
SPY—whether it can hold above 750; QQQ—whether it can break through 740. As long as these two levels are secured, the market in early July will return to the hands of the bulls, and we can look for new highs if the breakout continues.

To store the recent performance has been relatively poor; it’s not as good as holding device stocks. In the few short trading days after Micron’s earnings report, memory wiped out almost all the gains brought by the earnings report. But I think after June, as long as the AI main theme continues, there’s no reason not to hold a memory position.

Everyone can also buy equipment, buy glass, buy M7, buy various AI infrastructure—everything is fine. These are all good companies. As long as the models keep getting bigger, compute power keeps being stacked, and data centers continue to expand, in the end there must be more HBM and more NAND. This logic has not changed for the time being.

Storage is not a “should or shouldn’t exist.” As long as AI demand hasn’t been disproven, I’ll continue to hold a portion of the storage position. The most comfortable situation for Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix right now is “if you don’t buy, someone else will.”

So as long as the AI narrative is still there, storage will still be a main line. A dip in the middle is normal—de-risk with leverage, kill sentiment, all normal.

Of course, if there’s a conflict at the daily level with the strategy, I’ll cut positions immediately without hesitation. I won’t worship any single stock, and I’ll avoid falling into the trap of becoming a ‘veteran’ investor.

#美股

In early June, on Wednesday night when the CPI was released, it was the lowest point for the entire month of June

At the time, I went bargain-hunting on strong stocks:
SNDK
LRCX
AMAT
INTC
ASML

Aside from ASML lagging a bit, the average gain was 30%+.
In recent days, the live stream host has been sighing—actually holding on is truly a kind of mysticism. The more a stock shoots up, the harder it is to hold. The more a stock you’re stuck in, the longer you end up holding it.

The four most expensive words in the stock market have always been:

"I could have"
"Sorry—back then, I really didn’t know how to love you"

#美股

The turbulent month of June is almost over. QQQ in June is no longer possible to fall lower than when we entered at the beginning of the month. The volatility throughout June became extremely large. Especially our main line—storage—it’s become commonplace to swing back and forth by a dozen points or more in a single day. Although the strong stocks we positioned for this month, on average, still rose 20%+ despite the index’s downward trend, many people may not have captured these gains. I have a rough idea why.

When we predicted the June outlook, we said June’s market should be a choppy pullback: big dips followed by aggressive buying, and small dips followed by buying as well. After the consolidation and pullback, we would keep looking favorably toward July. Now July is here. Everyone should know what to do. Money-making advice: use strategies more to protect your position size.

July is a month we liked after experiencing the June consolidation. Recently, many friends have joined our CoinCat Trading Academy. We found that a lot of people aren’t very familiar with the U.S. stock market, so there are a few principles you need to follow:

1. The U.S. stock market can be very profitable, but don’t be in a rush. Investing is a game of time; the U.S. market is suitable for extending your time horizon.
2. The U.S. market is especially suitable for large capital, but individual stocks also have especially large volatility, so it isn’t suitable for high leverage.
3. For beginners: start by getting familiar with the U.S. market using the index, such as QQQ, SPY. At first, don’t trade leveraged ETFs like TQQQ or SOXL. Even popular stocks should only be used with small position sizes to get a feel.
4. Set aside time to learn our trend strategy and long/short breakout strategy as soon as possible. At minimum, replay and review the last two years of market action using the strategies—4-hour, 2-hour, and daily timeframes all work.
5. If you don’t have enough time, just invest in index funds and ETFs, and also consider a few hot stocks along the main theme.
6. When you’re just starting, focus mainly on spot positions, strictly control leverage. Especially for individual stocks, total leverage ideally should not exceed 3x. QQQ index leverage can be a bit higher, but still keep it within 10x.
7. Consistent investing using a certain method (DCA) is an efficient investment approach that almost ordinary people can use to make money with a very high probability. Put U.S. index DCA into our “retirement plan.” Decades later, it will be much more than our pension.
8. Position control is the top priority. Don’t go all-in and bet everything on a single stock, no matter how much you believe in it. This approach can lead to wealth overnight—or also catastrophic losses. Make sure we always stay seated at the table.

Hope everyone makes more money along the trading journey, learns real skills, and achieves financial freedom as soon as possible ❤️