When Bitcoin’s first halving occurred, the BTC price was only about $12. At that stage, almost nobody believed it would become a global-class asset. And even fewer dared to imagine today’s ETF, publicly listed companies, national reserves, and Wall Street capital flowing in.
The people who celebrated that first halving back then weren’t looking at short-term price swings—they were seeing the start of an entirely new monetary experiment. Buying BTC at the time wasn’t chasing hype; it was believing, at a very early stage, in something that almost nobody could understand.
Looking back now, what truly changed people’s fate was never when everyone was shouting “bull market.” It was when most people were still doubting, mocking, and ignoring.
A BTC worth $12 sounds like a myth.
But every round of legend begins with a time when nobody believes it.
$BTC Power-law quantile drops to an extremely low range!
Right now, it’s only 6.2%.
This position is rare!
2015, 2020, and 2023 have all seen it.
All of them were near cycle lows!
Bitcoin’s power-law quantile has fallen to 6.2%, meaning the current price, within the long-term power-law model, is already close to the historical undervaluation zone.
The most critical part of this signal is the historical comparison. Near the BTC cycle lows in 2015, 2020, and 2023, similar low-quantile levels appeared before. That means this isn’t a normal pullback—prices are moving back toward the long-term trend’s bottom area.
Of course, a low quantile doesn’t mean an immediate reversal, but it does indicate that the gap between downside potential and long-term value is getting larger. The worse market sentiment gets, the more the model aligns with historical bottom signals.
6.2% is not just “cheap.”
This is an extreme quantile level that only shows up near cycle lows.$MU
According to Binance fund flow data, $FET , $SLP, $LINK, and $COMP show exchange outflows (funds leaving the exchange). This is usually a bit bullish, because chips are moving away from exchanges, which means less sellable supply in the short term and relatively lower downside pressure.
Especially for established assets like LINK and COMP—if outflows continue, it suggests funds are holding for the medium term or shifting to on-chain allocation. That doesn’t really look like a simple short-term dump.
On the other hand, $AXS, $CHZ, and $JASMY show more inflows (funds entering exchanges). Signals like this require caution, because inflow to exchanges often indicates potential selling pressure, and the short-term price is more likely to be pressured by incoming sell orders.
Binance founder CZ’s wealth has once again reshaped market perception. According to the Forbes real-time billionaire list, CZ’s current net worth is about $107.7 billion, already surpassing Bill Gates’s approximately $105.9 billion, placing him among the world’s top 18 richest.
The most outrageous part is that his main source of wealth is still Binance equity. In other words, changes in the valuation of the world’s largest crypto exchange directly propel CZ into the core circle of traditional tech giants and long-established tycoons.
This has strong symbolic significance for the crypto industry: previously, crypto was treated as a fringe market by traditional finance, but now Binance founder’s wealth can be compared on the same ranking as Microsoft’s founder.
Crypto doesn’t lack giants.
It’s just that this time, the giant has pushed into the very front row of the global wealth rankings.
Historically, it’s rare for power/electricity costs to be breached.
Now electrical cost is at 47k.
The miners’ bottom line is right here!
This isn’t ordinary support!
In Bitcoin’s history, the true major bottoms generally haven’t stayed below electrical cost (power cost) for long. This metric can be understood as the most core electricity expense for miners to produce one BTC, and it’s also an important reference for the market to judge miners’ survival stress.
Now BTC’s electricity cost is about $47,000. That means if the price continues to plunge significantly, the closer it gets to this line, the greater the miners’ loss pressure—and the more extreme the market’s forced clearing becomes.
This level doesn’t mean the price can never dip below it in an instant, but from a cycle perspective, around the power cost zone it often turns into a key bottom reference area during deep bear markets.
47k isn’t a line drawn at random.
If it truly drops there, it means miners and the market are both being pushed to their limits.
$BTC loss-making chips have hit a new all-time high again!
This signal is very eye-catching.
The market has already been hurt to the limit!
Near the past 4 major bottoms.
A similar structure appeared each time!
BTC total supply in loss (the total supply currently in a loss state) has just refreshed its all-time high, indicating that more and more holders’ cost bases are already above the current price—overall, the market is trapped extremely deep.
This kind of data looks terrifying, but based on historical cycles, it often shows up near true market bottoms. When the past four times’ main BTC major bottoms formed, the loss supply had also approached similar highs. Back then, weak hands were washed out to the point of collapse, leverage was cleaned out, and the chips began gradually shifting toward stronger hands that can better withstand volatility.
So the key point now isn’t how bad the emotions are, but how many people in the market are still willing to keep cutting losses. When loss-making chips pile up to the extreme, it usually means selling pressure is already in the final stage of release.
When everyone is suffering.
That’s often when the most likely time for a big-cycle bottom appears.
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The scale has already reached the billion-dollar level!
But below 1500 is starting to get dangerous too.
Both longs and shorts are waiting to get swept!
ETH’s current short liquidation (short liquidations) has been stacking from the current price all the way up to around 1800, forming a very large liquidation cluster, with the size already reaching the multi-billion-dollar level.
This means that if ETH’s pullback continues, the higher the price goes, the greater the pressure on shorts—once liquidation is triggered, it’s easy to spark a chain-reaction squeeze.
But the downside can’t be ignored either—long liquidation (long liquidations) around 1500 is starting to become obvious. In other words, ETH isn’t a one-way “safe” zone right now; there are liquidity traps both above and below.
1800 above is the short graveyard.
1500 below is the long lifeline—the first side to be swept depends on how the capital gets ignited.
It’s completely normal for market sentiment to get smashed.
This week, BlackRock sold Bitcoin worth about $845 million. With a size like this in today’s market environment, the impact is extremely direct.
BTC’s recent rebound has been weak. The main issue isn’t only retail panic—it's also the large capital flows on the ETF side that are dragging things down. Once funds of BlackRock’s scale keep selling, the market will lose the most important spot buyer and liquidity support.
So when looking at BTC right now, you can’t just focus on futures liquidations and the order book. ETF inflows and outflows are one of the key variables that determine whether spot buying is strong.
If BlackRock doesn’t step in, the rebound is just fake.
As ETF sell pressure doesn’t stop, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen smoothly.
BTC’s current whale buy orders (whale bids) are still very solid, indicating that if the price keeps falling, large capital is already prepared to absorb sell volume from below.
More importantly, there are no obvious sell orders (sell walls) stacking up on the order book. In other words, it’s not a structure where both the top and bottom are completely blocked—someone is picking up below, while the sell pressure above is relatively light.
This kind of order book setup is definitely worth watching in the short term. If the whale keeps absorbing the sell pressure, and there’s no large sell wall suppressing the top, the resistance against a BTC rebound will decrease.
The whale bid is still here.
If the sell wall isn’t obvious, the rebound room gets reopened.
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$BTC A newly created wallet directly withdraws a large amount!
A freshly created wallet.
Withdrew 1,350 BTC from Binance!
Worth about $81.87 million.
This isn’t a small-money move!
A newly created wallet bc1q4m has just withdrawn 1,350 BTC from Binance, worth about $81.87 million.
The key point isn’t “the new wallet” itself, but that this batch of BTC was pulled directly out of the exchange. In general, when a large amount of BTC leaves Binance, it often means liquidity in the trading flow is being withdrawn, and the amount of sellable short-term supply decreases.
If this is a long-term holding address, it’s generally positive for the market structure; if it’s just an institution/whale moving funds, it at least indicates that this BTC isn’t currently sitting in the exchange order book waiting to be used to dump the market.
There’s now even less exchange liquidity.
If the whales don’t sell, the bid support beneath BTC shouldn’t be too bad.
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COIN, CRCL, BLSH—she’s sweeping them all together!
Capital continues to bet on crypto stocks.
She’s clearly buying into this pullback!
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest continued to increase its crypto-linked exposure on June 26 (crypto-related stock exposure), buying 68,366 shares of COIN, 78,756 shares of CRCL, and 57,511 shares of BLSH.
This set of moves is interesting, because the market is still worrying about BTC breaking below a key level, crypto-stock valuations pulling back, and sentiment cooling—yet ARK is actually continuing to add Coinbase, Circle, Bullish, and other crypto-infrastructure companies.
She isn’t betting on a single token for a short-term bounce, but on “shovel stocks” that are closer to the industry—exchanges, stablecoins, and crypto financial platforms. In other words, Mumtzy isn’t gambling on a coin’s quick rebound; she’s betting that when the next round of crypto market recovery arrives, infrastructure companies will first benefit from flows and trading volume.
The more panicked the market is, the more daring she gets with adding.
If crypto sentiment turns around, these stocks may react earlier than many smaller altcoins.#比特币下探58000美元
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Michael Saylor’s latest statement: “We’re gonna need more charts.” The real meaning of that line is: if Strategy keeps buying BTC, the original charts of existing positions may need to be refreshed.
Saylor’s signal has always been very straightforward: if it drops, it’s not a retreat—it's continuing to move BTC into the balance sheet. He’s not focused on short-term liquidation levels like 58k, 60k, or 62k, but on the BTC cost-basis positions over the next few years.
That’s why the market watches every one of his remarks. Because Strategy isn’t ordinary buying pressure—it’s a BTC-buying machine that’s been running for years, continuously raising funds and adding more.
Retail investors look at whether the drop is over.
Saylor looks at whether they can keep sweeping up more.
Over these years, it has really been extremely hard for altcoin holders. BTC at least has the main storyline—ETFs, institutional allocations, and balance-sheet logic—but many altcoins over the past 5 years have basically been a repetitive “reset to zero” torture.
Round after round of narratives came and went—AI, GameFi, L2, DeFi, RWA, Meme. Every track got hot, but only a tiny fraction can really run long-term. Most people aren’t lacking belief; they’re just gradually worn down by endless unlocks, low liquidity, high FDV, and the project teams’ lingering sell pressure.
Altcoins aren’t unplayable.
But if you pick the wrong cycle, it really is 5 years of sitting in prison for nothing.
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In the past 24 hours, 57,730 traders were liquidated.
Total liquidation amount: $133 million!
The largest single liquidation came from Bybit.
One BTC order directly worth $2.08 million!
Over the past 24 hours, the entire market saw 57,730 traders liquidated, with the total liquidation amount reaching $133.24 million.
Among them, the largest single liquidation occurred on Bybit, from a BTC position, worth about $2.08 million. This data shows that although market volatility may not look like an extreme collapse, highly leveraged funds are still being continuously harvested.
What’s truly dangerous isn’t how much the price moves, but that positions are overloaded and leverage is too high. As long as the price keeps sweeping back and forth across key liquidation zones, both long and short sides will have people getting forcibly liquidated.
The market hasn’t truly calmed down yet.
As long as leverage remains high, the liquidations won’t stop.
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But below, long liquidations are also getting thicker and thicker.
SOL’s current structure is quite interesting: around $75 above is still short max pain (the biggest pain point for shorts). If price first surges upward, this level is very likely to become the first liquidation target.
But the issue is that below, long liquidation is also continuously building up in thickness. In other words, the market could very well first pull up to sweep the shorts, and then flip back down, taking out the newly built longs as well.
This kind of setup is the easiest to end up in a double-kill—not simply a bullish or bearish call, but about which side’s liquidity the funds decide to cut into first.
$75 is the shorts’ lifeline.
But the more longs pile up below, after sweeping above, they may still kill below again.$ETH #美伊停火协议破裂
$BTC has been added to the millennia-level technology revolution list!
This isn’t a typical asset story.
This is a technological disruption narrative!
Among the most important changes in the past 1,000 years.
Bitcoin is included too!
Bitcoin is now listed as one of the most important technological disruptions of the past 1,000 years. This positioning is actually bigger than just a “price up or down” asset.
Many people still treat BTC only as a speculative item, a trading instrument, or a risk asset. But what it truly changes is money, store of value, cross-border settlement, personal asset sovereignty, and a global ledger system that doesn’t depend on any central institution.
From printing, electricity, and the internet—now to Bitcoin—the things that can truly survive cycles have never been short-term prices. It’s always the underlying rules that get rewritten.
Prices will fluctuate.
But BTC’s narrative has already evolved from a trading asset into a civilization-level technology variable. $ETH $SOL #比特币下探58000美元 Click the card below and go straight for it!👇
$ETH Wang Chun just withdrew crypto from Binance again!
This time, he withdrew 4,950 ETH.
Worth approximately $7.74 million!
Continuously buying and accumulating for over a month.
Exchange funds are still being moved out!
Wang Chun has just withdrawn 4,950 ETH from Binance, worth about $7.74 million.
Since May 26, he has already累计 withdrawn 91,945 ETH from Binance, worth about $159.9 million; he has also withdrawn 973 WBTC, worth about $60.72 million.
The most crucial part of this move isn’t how much he bought in a single transaction, but that he keeps withdrawing from the exchange. He buys and doesn’t leave it sitting on Binance—instead, he continually transfers it out. This suggests these funds are more like long-term holdings rather than short-term trading positions.
When the price is weaker, he holds more.
As exchange holdings get moved out, the potential selling pressure will become thinner and thinner.
Click the card below and get started!👇$BTC $SOL #美国空袭伊朗10处军事目标
But below, around 58k, long liquidations are also building up.
BTC’s structure right now is very typical: near 62k above, there are short liquidation targets. If price continues to retrace upward, it’s easy to go sweep that liquidity.
On the other hand, around 58k, long liquidation is also piling up layer by layer. In other words, the market isn’t only fueled in one direction—both the top and bottom sides are starting to thicken.
At times like this, the easiest thing is a fake breakout first, then a reversal to sweep the other side. 62k is the pain point for shorts; 58k is the lifeline for longs. Whoever gets broken first will amplify short-term volatility.
Above 62k is the short-squeeze zone.
Below 58k is the long liquidation zone—don’t chase too aggressively.
$BTC Humpback whales are starting to hard-catch again!
This time, the scale is huge.
Over 57k, there are long positions lined up everywhere!
Perp long limit orders reach as high as $266 million.
They really aren’t afraid of getting smashed!
BTC Whale Orders (whale orders) show that between the current price and 57k, about $266 million worth of perp long limit orders (contract long limit orders) have already been stacked.
This means that once the price continues to drop, above 57k there will be a large number of buy orders from longs attempting to absorb the sell pressure. The problem is, this structure cuts both ways: if the absorption succeeds, BTC can easily bounce back from this zone; but if the sell pressure is too strong, these whale long positions could also become fuel for the next round of liquidation.
So now 57k isn’t just a support level—it’s a concentrated defense zone for longs. The market will most likely test whether this batch of buy orders is truly absorbing, or whether another batch of liquidity is being sent to the door.
Whales set up their formation above 57k.
Hold the line and it rebounds; fail to hold and it turns into a chain liquidation.
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Over the past week, El Salvador continued to accumulate 8 more BTC. Their Bitcoin holdings in the national treasury have already reached 7,696.37 BTC, which—at current prices—are worth more than $461 million.
The most crucial thing here isn’t the 8 BTC themselves, but the continuity. When the market dips, many funds reduce positions, hold back, and deleverage. But this kind of country-level buying is still accumulating steadily, according to a rhythm.
For them, BTC is no longer a short-term trading asset—it’s a long-term reserve asset. Price fluctuations are just part of the process; what really matters is BTC’s position in sovereign asset allocation over the next few years.
Retail investors are panicking.
But some sovereign-level funds are still slowly gathering the pieces.
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