加密猴哥-只想单纯的炒币

Many people may not know

The third cryptocurrency project in the U.S. through ETFs is called HBAR

Behind it is @Hedera , a Layer 1 public chain primarily serving institutions and governments

The governance ecology is composed of 39 top institutions, including IBM, LG, Google, and the HEDERA COUNCIL, whose strong background resources create many favorable expectations

In addition to tokenizing the assets of major Wall Street institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity on-chain through Archax, they also collaborated with the official government of Wyoming to launch FRNT for applications in areas such as taxation

This is the power of resources, but from another perspective, it also indirectly proves the technical strength of HEDERA

HBAR's current FDV is 5 billion USD, while Solana's FDV is 50 billion USD, a significant difference between the two

HBAR focuses on institutional-grade L1 application chains and has currently achieved the largest global scale, completely different from Solana's development direction

In terms of potential, if regular troops continue to enter the market in the future, HBAR's advantages may be discovered by the market, after all, there are only a few projects that have gone through ETFs in the U.S., and the market capitalization comparison to these public chains is indeed not high

Moreover, from a technical advantage perspective

The two co-founders of HBAR, Mance Harmon and Leemon Baird, previously held senior positions at Motorola, coming from a large company background. Especially, Leemon Baird also served as a computer professor at the U.S. Air Force Academy.

Team strength represents technical level, and for HBAR to be pushed to ETFs by institutions, it is certainly because institutions find the project reliable, and then comes the interest relationship.

It can be worth keeping an eye on; I still think there is hope. #HBAR

The only good opportunity to make money in the first half of the year

Should be this wave of rebound

No operations, no trading in the second half of the year, wait until the end of the year

This is my plan for 2026

Keywords: play it safe, survive, protect the principal #比特币

Bitcoin will reach over $500,000 in the long term
CZ's prediction

Bitcoin will reach $266,000 in the next round
JPMorgan's prediction

Bitcoin will reach $40,000, $30,000……
This is what retail investors care about

The perspective of the big players leans towards the long term
The perspective of retail investors leans towards the short term

Nothing is absolute, neither will necessarily happen
But I know that the bigger the waves, the more valuable the fish, that's for sure! #比特币

A daily action of farting can be seen as an earthquake in a bear market~~

Just now, USD1 briefly lost its value; WLFI officially gave the latest explanation:

This is an organized cyber attack, where the attackers hacked some co-founders' accounts, paid influencers spread rumors, and simultaneously shorted #WLFI in an attempt to profit.

However, the attack was unsuccessful, and it has now stabilized at the pegged price.

I was still puzzled as to why WLFI and USD1 had invested so many resources and costs recently, only to end up harming themselves.

After seeing the official latest announcement, I finally understood the reason.

Secondly, USD1 was unscathed in this attack, indicating that its strength is still quite strong.
Undoubtedly, it has given a boost to financial activities, indirectly serving as another advertisement 😂

Bitcoin owes a small-scale rebound

From the perspective of monthly K-line charts, the big coin has now fallen to the trend line L3 in the picture.
Except for 2018, the monthly lines in 2021, 2022, and 2024 all started a short-term rebound after falling to this line.

The 2018 instance was in November, but Bitcoin did not experience a continuous decline in monthly lines before that; it was under a sideways market for 6 months when an industry negative news (Bitcoin hash war) suddenly triggered a break of the trend line and a sharp drop.

One point that needs to be clarified is that the support line represents that falling to this line ultimately holds, rather than falling below it a few days ago and then representing invalidation. If it recovers by the end of the month, it still indicates successful support.
Friends trading contracts should take note, I operate under spot logic, so please do not misunderstand.

From a macro perspective, there isn't particularly significant negative news; it’s just that there has been no large-scale liquidity entering this year.

The overall expansion of the balance sheet is limited, and the number and basis of interest rate cuts are limited, which indicates that it will not evolve into a new round of large QE.

So after the rebound, it’s still quite difficult, right? Let’s live well from here, and wait to pick up the pieces at the end of the year! #比特币

Several questions worth considering during the New Year period

1. How much longer will the cryptocurrency industry's boom last?
2. Will Bitcoin really reach $500,000?
3. Will there still be hot opportunities in secondary altcoins?
4. Are there opportunities with over 10 times returns among the hot topics?
5. Will the ceiling for MEME reach tens of billions?
6. If the range of benefits is shrinking, how can we make money?
7. Will Bitcoin really reach $500,000?

I seriously thought about it, and surprisingly, I couldn't find definite answers to any of the questions.

A sense of panic and confusion about the future has inexplicably arisen. Have you experienced this too? #比特币

The longer the bottom oscillation lasts, the higher the possibility of a phase rebound.

It is expected that the range starting with 6 will repeatedly build a bottom and oscillate over the next month, then rebound to the range starting with 8.

Although the rebound of Bitcoin will not be very large, there should still be timely hotspots for MEME and blue-chip MEME trends during the rebound period.

These are the opportunities to play altcoins.

Let me mention a few facts: first, no one can accurately judge the time and price in the market.

In my analysis and judgment, I always sort the logic one dimension at a time, and the output of opinions has a timeline.

For example, a few days ago, an unfamiliar Twitter friend posted a picture, didn't we say the bottom would stop around 90,000?

If you only follow this tweet, you would definitely look down on it, even mock it.

But at least you should take the time to scroll back and look at history.

In the later posts, it was still around 90,000, I remember it should be 86,000, saying that there shouldn't be panic in the short term, it's already at the bottom.

And it was repeatedly mentioned that this is a rebound market, with a target around 100,000. Later, Bitcoin indeed rebounded to 97,000, the price was pretty much on point, with slight timing deviation.

Moreover, I mainly focus on altcoins; Bitcoin is just a reference benchmark for me. Before the significant drop in altcoins, I also publicly advised to clear positions.

Through these, I understand one principle: one must see the whole picture; it is not good to take things out of context.

Forget it, doing oneself is the most important; what others think is their problem.

If you worry about what everyone thinks, that would be exhausting.

I don't issue coins, nor do I post CA every day; living cautiously is enough.

Next, I want to enjoy this phase of the rebound market; nothing else is important; making money is crucial! #比特币

MicroStrategy purchased 2,486 bitcoins at the price of 67,710 USD!

Just in February of this year, 4,484 BTC were purchased, worth over 300 million USD.

This is the month with the highest frequency of purchases for MicroStrategy since Bitcoin reached 120,000 USD.

This indicates that MicroStrategy's analysis team believes that bitcoins around 60,000 have a good cost-performance ratio.

During this period, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate around the previous low positions, eventually forming a temporary bottom.

I do not believe it will drop to 30,000; currently, there are no significant signs of macro and industry downturns, making it extremely difficult. #比特币

Is the myth of the US stock market broken by China's AI?

I think, Duan Yongping would be the first to disagree.

Recently, he has significantly increased his holdings in Nvidia.

The position is second only to Apple and Berkshire.
Old Duan follows a long-term investment strategy.

His understanding and information advantage are probably several levels above many others; I really can't find a reason for the US stock market to be overturned by domestic AI.

Domestic AI is focused on efficiency optimization and excels in application scenarios, while US companies excel in AI hardware ecosystems.

However, the former is still heavily reliant on the latter.

Wasn't Jensen Huang just in Shanghai a few days ago?

Similar to Tesla back in the day, the domestic market really needs new technologies and industries to take root, and the government is well aware of our shortcomings.

Even hypothetically speaking, even if the US stock market crashes, it won't cause Bitcoin to correlate so obviously; the downward momentum can be pre-emptively exhausted, and thinking that far ahead and that complicated is useless.

Focus on the short to medium term; #比特币 rebounding to around 80,000 is something I still look forward to! Blue-chip MEME will perform well.

Prepare for the next stage market!

A few days ago at the position of 67,000, I bought a Bitcoin. At the same time next month, if it can return to 67,000, I will continue to buy.

The Bitcoin monthly line has already had 5 consecutive declines. The last time was during the major bear phase of 2018, when the monthly line had 6 consecutive declines.

From the candlestick perspective, if no new major negative news appears, then it will be about time to consolidate at this position for another month, and a new stage market will emerge.

From a macro perspective, the current core inflation is still slightly above 2%, and we need to see a more clear and sustained decline.

The job market is stabilizing, and the risk of data downturns is decreasing, which reduces the pressure to cut interest rates urgently.

The tone for this year is restraint and maintaining stability, so the base and frequency of interest rate cuts will be significantly reduced.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will restart an interest rate cut in June, as inflation data accumulates more declines, and with the new leadership team of the Fed coming in June, it will be a reasonable window for restarting interest rate cuts.

However, I personally feel that the effect on Bitcoin is minimal. At most, it can initiate a small-scale rebound from a severe drop, which is also the stage market mentioned above.

Let's make an effort to seize the only stage market in the first half of this year, hot altcoins, blue-chip MEME. #BTC #比特币

The most correct decision this month
is to stop everyone from buying #MOLT
50M—5M, it needs to increase 10 times to break even

Large positions play #MEME is a one-way street

Using small to win big is the core

The threshold for maximum position is 10,000 U, completely reasonable

Especially above 10M

Below 1M, it is 2,500 U

The larger the market value, the more you bet, the higher the risk

MEME is a feast for small funds and a slaughterhouse for large funds #比特币

There are definitely many strong players in Bitcoin, and they all come with missions.

Otherwise, it's a bit difficult to control even slightly larger K-line levels because liquidity is what it is.

Altcoins are different; it's easier to control the market.
The chips are mostly in the hands of the project parties and market makers, with not much left for retail investors.

Moreover, there are not many altcoin projects with a good framework this round; most peak right after they go live.

Sigh, everyone complains that trading cryptocurrencies is difficult now, but it will only get harder in the future…..#比特币 #ETH

As a loser, I finally met the big shots of WLFI.

Thanks to XDO, thanks to Jia Yi Jie and ENDO for introducing me to the world.

This year #USD1 and #WLFI have big moves, reportedly very big.

In fact, being able to meet these big figures of the WLFI project is quite magical for an ordinary boy from Northeast China.

My grandfather's generation moved from Tieling, Liaoning to Heilongjiang, and has always been dealing with the black soil.

I just got lucky and entered the circle a bit early. I lost a lot in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, but only made some money in 2021.

This is all due to the industry's dividends, not because my abilities are strong.

I am actually quite gentle and not aggressive or sharp; words cannot express my personality, and I care a lot about others' opinions. I always think about how to reciprocate those who are good to me.

As a loser, I still know my own worth, and I want to thank every friend on Twitter.

Today I saw everyone introducing themselves in English, and I really envy them. When Jia Yi Jie called me, I wanted to bravely say a few awkward English words, but I thought better of it; saying too much would make me look bad.

What I am best at is still the Northeast dialect.

In recent years, I've just been trading cryptocurrencies and haven't invested in language learning. I hope it will get better in the future, #BTC .

Don't worry, Lao Yi won't cut losses, the market won't rebound! #易理华割肉清仓

Strategy is the largest dollar-cost averager of Bitcoin and the most faith-driven institution to traverse bull and bear markets!

Last week, increased holdings by 1142 Bitcoins

Now a total of 714644 Bitcoins have been purchased, with an average cost of 76056

It is the highest number purchased among global enterprises!

In terms of holding quantity, it ranks among the top five Bitcoin holders!

From the first purchase of 21454 BTC in August 2020 to now, being one of the major players in Bitcoin

In almost 6 years, only sold 704 BTC at the lowest point of the bear market on December 22, 2022,
for tax optimization. Hasn't moved a single one at any other time!

In terms of faith, I only respect Strategy; it really seems that they won't sell a single one for less than 500,000 dollars. #btc #ETH

The whole internet is optimistic about #MOLT
When it's at 50M, the batch of small addresses is being shipped
Is this a decline in ethics, or a distortion of humanity?

What is the altcoin season?

2017 bull market
2021 bull market
From the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023
From the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024
All of these time periods count

But since the beginning of 2024 (when the price of Bitcoin was 70,000 USD), only Bitcoin has risen, with the increase peaking at less than double

Due to the expansion of altcoin asset scale, liquidity is concentrated on Bitcoin, and more importantly, the space for increases is also shrinking

This has resulted in only a 'shitcoin season', rather than an altcoin season

If Bitcoin now rises from 70,000 to 300,000, I think it is not unreasonable to say that it is the low point of an altcoin season

An altcoin season only exists when Bitcoin has enough expected growth, but do you think Bitcoin will create enough space?

For a considerable period in the future, there will be no altcoin season, only a 'shitcoin hotspot season' #BTC

The most correct decision made this time
was to clear out the shanzhai before the crash

And many people asked me a few days ago
#MOLT if they could catch the bottom

I confidently held everyone's hand
on X and TG

From 50M smoothly dropping to 8.3M
it still hasn't stopped falling…

During the Bitcoin adjustment period
all new hot spots MEME
should be approached with caution

Wait until the Bitcoin adjustment ends
then new opportunities will arise
no need to rush in

Next, still prioritize catching the bottom of Bitcoin
The market is giving such opportunities, we must cherish them.