北幣逗狗

After gradually liquidating Bitcoin before the end of October, I started planning future directions these days.
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Last month, I also had my family liquidate both Taiwan and U.S. stocks.
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Although my family is not interested in investing in Bitcoin, they will at least fully follow the stock actions.
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For the cryptocurrency market, the bear market is often the real stage for accumulating wealth.
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The bull market can actually lead to losses, like last month when I took a hit due to a black swan event.
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From now on, I will maintain a rhythm of withdrawals every day, and by the end of the year, I might buy some Japanese yen.
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Leaving a small position to continuously stay in the crypto space looking for opportunities.
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Many people have a blind spot, thinking that the bear market means no money can be made,
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but in the crypto space, it’s actually the best time for airdrops and engaging with projects.
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I also gained more confidence in Solana because I participated in Jupiter in 2022 and 2023,
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which is why I dared to increase my positions at that time.
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During the process of participation, you will gradually become more sensitive,
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as long as the projects after the bear market are still alive, you will know which coins can be stashed for the future.
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If you don't have that much time to keep up with the rhythm of the crypto market, the most brainless approach is:
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1. Take advantage of this year to make good money, and don't act just yet.
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2. Wait for a major bottom next year to go all in on Bitcoin.
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3. Set aside some living expenses each month, and continue to DCA Bitcoin with the rest.
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The process in between can be quite boring; if you want to feel involved,
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then when the news starts reporting about a surge, reduce your holdings a bit,
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and when the news starts reporting about a crash, buy a little back.
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Finally, at the end of the 2029 cycle, cash out completely.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

Gold falls below 4000, and silver has also dropped to the 50s.

This year has been especially tough for precious metals investors, with a very poor holding experience.

Over the past six months, besides constantly shorting Bitcoin,

I also kept a portion of my positions in spot gold on a swing trade basis.

I bought in batches at an average price of 4600, and when it rebounded to 4800, I closed out completely.

I also swung silver twice through silver-mining stocks.

Last month, when it dropped to 4600, I entered again. Previously, my post mentioned that the central bank’s average this year is 4400.

So once it fell to 4400 and I realized the danger, I reduced my position heavily.

After going in and out, it’s a bit regrettable that I didn’t make too much profit from the move.

Overall this year, the swing-trading profits in precious metals—copper, silver, and gold—are about the same as the interest difference from a demand deposit.

This year’s performance has mostly come from short positions in BTC.

Now the remaining 10% of my precious metals allocation is just being left untouched.

If there’s a rebound in the second half of the year, I’ll plan to sell it off and put everything into buying the dip on Bitcoin.$BTC $XAU $XAG

PCE data surges to a new high in three years, and both the stock market and Bitcoin drop hard!

Recently, oil prices have been coming down,

but over the past few months, energy prices have only now started to show up in consumer prices.

PCE is a key inflation gauge the Fed cares about most.

Although it met market expectations of 4.1%, last month was 3.8%,

and the gap from the goal of 2% is growing wider.

Especially after the start of the warsh administration, at the first meeting, market interpretation leaned hawkish.

That’s when the broader macro picture gets brought back to the table for discussion.

Now, talk of a rate hike in September is growing louder,

and the market is starting to diverge in its views.

In tech stocks, Micron and Corning are both still strong,

but some have begun to gradually weaken.

The prediction market now has more than half believing there will be at least one rate hike this year.

To avoid guessing whether September will see a hike,

personally, I also chose to step aside and temporarily exit in July.

Micron's earnings report just hit, and the market skyrocketed!

The financial data blew expectations out of the water, so here’s a quick recap:

Revenue at 41.4 billion > expected 35.6 billion

Gross margin at 84.9% > expected 81.6%

The main revenue driver remains DRAM, and there are two key takeaways from the execs:

1. Business structure shift: Micron has secured 16 long-term agreements with clients, slowly transitioning from a cyclical stock to an essential AI demand.

2. Supply shortages are expected to last at least until after 2027. In fact, Micron's guidance for the next quarter forecasts revenue hitting 50 billion, as they ramp up production of HBM and other high-end chips.

Now the market is already discussing supply and demand all the way to 2028...

Management keeps stressing that memory is a long-term trend lasting many years, not just a short cycle of two or three years.

The position of memory is becoming clearer, and Micron's CEO keeps emphasizing that AI is still in a very early stage of development.

——————————————
Micron just saved the U.S. stock market overnight,

and now the Taiwan index futures and the major Japanese and Korean markets are racing ahead...

Absolutely amazing! 正道的光$MUB $SPCXB $SKHYNIX

Bitcoin just took a nosedive, what should we do about this drop?

As mentioned in my updates a few days ago,

I closed most of my shorts, keeping only the earliest one.

And I funneled the profits into some US stocks and Bitcoin spot trades, gearing up for a swing.

Originally, the plan was that,

with MSTR raising more funds, the chances of a quick revisit to 59100 are quite low.

So ideally, I expect Bitcoin to bounce back to around 70k, then I'll add to my shorts,

and in the meantime, I'll ride the wave of the US stock gains.

But ever since the news from Bank of America about three panic rate hikes by year-end dropped yesterday,

US stocks, Taiwan stocks, gold, silver, and Bitcoin have all been in a slump,

and the dollar index is super strong, looks like that news had a big impact.

If we don’t get a bounce,

then my plan is to hold off on adding to shorts,

and instead start accumulating spot gradually, with the short I opened at 106K getting closed around 52K.

If it really drops, don’t expect too much profit from shorts,

better to slowly shift into a bottom-fishing mindset, buy the dip and hold for three years.

Although I think it probably won't break down for now,

just in case, I’m updating this article early. $BTC $ETH $SOL

The semiconductor market's been pretty volatile, but Corning Glass (GLW) has been shining bright on the NYSE.

I added 5% more Corning at the $199 level,

Now I’d say I’ve filled my positions, holding about 25% cash on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity.

Today, on 6/24, Corning unveiled its next-gen Glass Bridge optical connectivity components in Seoul.

Everyone's focused on Micron's earnings report today, but Corning quietly hit new highs.

Let me give you a quick rundown on Corning,

Back when Edison invented the light bulb, glass would shatter when heated,

It was Corning that helped develop a solution to this problem.

Now, Corning has a strong positioning in AI; I’ll dive deeper into that in another post.

Recently, after landing orders from Amazon, Meta, and NVIDIA, their stock price has been on a relentless upward trajectory,

I snagged 5% more just a couple of days ago while it was on sale.

While the market seems to be buzzing mostly about memory stocks, I believe Corning is a solid play as well.
$GLW $MUB $SPCXB

BofA predicts three consecutive rate hikes by year-end, and the stock market is starting to tank.

Right now, the market is super sensitive; even a slight breeze can cause major fluctuations.

Previously mentioned, Warsh's probability of raising rates is actually quite low,

Looking at market forecasts, the rate hike chances haven't changed much,

Plus, Warsh is under pressure before Trump’s election,

If oil prices are coming down, there isn't much inflation pressure in the short term,

I believe we might hold off on rate hikes until after the election.

So, I lean towards this BofA news being more like a ghost story,

A dip here is just a buying opportunity to stack up.

I thought the market was rallying too quickly, so I've been holding onto 25% cash and haven't fully deployed it.

If there’s a downturn in the coming years, I’ll prioritize bottom fishing Micron.

If I manage to secure some gains, I’ll aim to clear my position around July. $MUB $SPCXB $BTC

Bitcoin is starting to show a major rebound, when should we take profits on the tenth spot trade?

In the last update on Bitcoin, we mentioned that

we can observe the rebound of STRC to get some insights.

A few days ago, when it dipped to 62K,

the market started panicking, thinking it would soon drop below 50K.

Although I believe the bear bottom isn't here yet,

there's a good chance we might see a repeat of the market from 2 to 5 months ago.

After MSTR raises new funds, they will definitely pull STRC's price back up first,

and once investors see STRC stabilize,

they'll feel safe to accumulate again.

When it comes time to pay interest, MSTR will sell coins again, and the next wave of dramatic drops might come.

Due to MicroStrategy's involvement,

Bitcoin's decline won't be smooth,

it'll likely take three months to climb a little, then drop vertically.

This entire bear market has already seen 9 spot trades,

for the 10th, I plan to sell again near 70K,

if STRC and SATA are back in the green by then, and the funding rate is high,

that will be a great opportunity to reposition shorts,

I'll reduce my holdings in Micron and SK Hynix at those highs,

and then open new Bitcoin shorts, each one a little swing trade,

no need for high leverage, just slowly farming my position up. $BTC $ETH $MU

SpaceX just took a nosedive in the last hour, what’s going on?

I reckon there are three main points,

First,

ever since it was announced that the company would acquire Cursor for $60 billion in all-stock, the bullish momentum just hit the brakes.

While the acquisition of Cursor is a positive signal,

the company is still sitting on unrealized losses, and cash can only be diluted from equity,

investors are worried about the stock price, so it’s been getting shorted.

Second,

there’s also a potential bond issuance on the horizon; it looks like SpaceX desperately needs funds to rapidly scale up.

Third,

there are rumors of a possible merger with Tesla, which has shareholders concerned about dilution of market cap.

Right now, I’m holding about 10% of my position and planning to keep it long-term,

consider it my faith paying off for old Elon.

This stock was always expected to have wild swings,

so I’m primarily focusing on spot buying.

If I didn’t hold any, I’d probably be feeling pretty rough,

but if my holding ratio is too high, I'd be a bundle of nerves, knowing the stock price is shaky right now.

Holding 10% feels just right,

if it drops to an outrageous price, I’ll consider adding to my position! $SPCX $SPCXB $BTC

Why are US stocks still able to pump so much after hours? Who's really driving the price? Is there some mysterious force behind it?

In the stock market, once the bell rings, you usually have to wait until tomorrow to buy,

but ever since crypto exchanges started syncing up with real US stocks,

these prices have become quite a reference point.

For instance, the closing price for SpaceX on a bullish day was 192,

but because exchanges operate 24/7,

the price shot up to a high of 229 that same afternoon.

And once real US markets open, the prices on both sides align the next day.

We can see some potential buy orders that can't be executed through US brokers,

slowly seeping into real US stocks through third parties,

and starting to exert influence on US stock prices.

The strongest source of these forces, no need to say, is definitely the Chinese, making up 90%.

Like Corning's closing at 194, then pumping to 206 during the holidays.

Micron closed at 1133, and even shot up to 1150 during the break.

SK Hynix's was even crazier, rocketing close to 2000 over the weekend.

This indicates that the crypto scene and buying pressure from China

are gradually gaining the ability to impact stock prices.

Once all these mysterious forces buy in, the prices on exchanges could become an important reference point.

Additionally, for savvy traders,

the price discrepancies on both sides present opportunities for time arbitrage, like the price tends to revert to the mean close to opening.

In the future, I’ll elaborate more on this,

it seems more and more off-market funds are starting to venture into US stocks, and acceptance is rising.

Is Bitcoin going to dip further? When will it hit the bottom?

In a recent article, I mentioned that STRC's stock started to break down,

leading to a drop in BTC's price, putting MicroStrategy in a tight spot.

Not sure whether to save the preferred shares or keep pushing the coin price up,

the market also took a hit with STRC dropping to the 8s, while Bitcoin fell back to 62K a few days ago.

At this point, I’m keeping an eye on STRC's price,

historically, STRC has had short-term disconnects, but over time, it usually rebounds and pulls the price back up.

In the past year,

as long as STRC starts to rebound, Bitcoin's price will likely bounce back too,

MicroStrategy always finds new ways to finance and cover the gaps.

This time, after STRC rebounded from 82 to 88,

I believe there’s a high probability we’ll see a repeat of the market conditions from February to May,

this is one of the reasons I’ve temporarily closed most of my shorts,

when STRC’s price rebounds above 98,

if the coin price looks solid, I plan to cash out on my US stocks, then come back to increase my BTC shorts.

If we really see a repeat of last season's market,

the next big dip is expected to hit around October,

once this dip plays out, I’ll keep monitoring the MVRV,

if the value falls into the green zone I mentioned before,

I’ll close all my shorts and start buying the dip.

In the past six months, MicroStrategy has been aggressively buying BTC to stabilize the price,

these past few months, just keep an eye on its funding sources,

like STRC, etc., and you’ll find the answers easily.
$BTC $SPCXB #eth

I've seen newbies regret investing in 0050, wishing they had gone all-in on memory stocks,

This is a common issue for newcomers during every bull run.

Most newbies enter the market by investing in large caps,

Then when they see a sector skyrocketing, they wonder why they stuck to large caps,

They forget their original investment intention, and after taking a big hit, they realize that large caps are still the way to go.

In the last cycle, the hottest topic was the shipping sector,

Those who jumped on Evergreen and Yang Ming five years ago have taken off.

But the issue is, if you heavily invest in small and mid-caps and miss one, it can really change your fate,

The ideal strategy is to allocate 80% to large caps and 20% to individual stocks or some more aggressive strategies.

After making profits, you can reinvest those gains into more 0050 or indices like SPY and QQQ.

I get that having a full 100% index position can be pretty boring,

So using 20% of your funds to trade in altcoins feels just right to me.

If you really have a strong game plan, that 20% can grow steadily too.

This thought process is very similar to the crypto space,

When people first enter the scene, they only dare to buy Bitcoin, but later when they see altcoins soaring,

They end up selling all their BTC and going all-in on altcoins,

Only to realize the beauty of holding a substantial position in Bitcoin after taking heavy losses.

If you really want to explore more,

You should also limit your altcoin investments to no more than 20% of your funds,

Take your initial investment back after doubling, then use it to buy more Bitcoin, and so on.

The real big players are the ones competing to see who can hold the most Bitcoin until the end.

Similarly with stocks, in the end, everyone is looking at the numbers of the index. $BTC $TSM $SPCXB

Is the rocket landing again and ready to take off? The price is about to hit the launch pad on the 15th.

Just think of SpaceX as a meme coin,

it's not your typical stock.

Currently low liquidity, the next batch unlocks at least in August,

you can simply understand it as the current ups and downs are just the insiders playing PVP,

if it dips back to the launch pad price before the 15th,

I'll keep stacking more, SpaceX is high risk, just a heads up.
$SPCXB $SPCX $BTC

Why did the yen drop instead of rise after Japan announced a rate hike?

Right now, the 'JPY/TWD' exchange rate has hit 0.197.

Previously, I mentioned that every time the 'USD/JPY' rate hits 160,

the central bank sells USD and US Treasuries to save the yen.

Now, they’re running out of bullets and have no choice but to hike rates.

Looking at the rapid recovery in the stock market last week,

the market has long since stopped fearing a rate hike in Japan, as everyone knows it will likely only be a small increase.

The decisions made by the Takamatsu government are mostly centered around the U.S.,

and if Japan hikes rates more than just a small increment at this stage,

it’s like throwing a bucket of cold water on the Trump administration ahead of the upcoming midterms,

but they’re stuck in a situation where they have to raise rates.

From the one-sided predictions in the market, it’s clear that everyone has already expected just a minor hike.

However, even with a small hike, the interest rate will still only be 1%, compared to the U.S.'s current 3.5%,

so those doing carry trades still have plenty of room.

Thus, the impact on the market isn’t significant.

Before Japan significantly raises rates, the yen is likely to remain weak,

making trips to Japan even cheaper.

Bitcoin's biggest bearish signal is definitely MicroStrategy, even its preferred shares are starting to decouple.

I previously shared two preferred stocks, STRC and SATA,

both of which keep using investor capital to stack more BTC,

and then pay dividends to investors, with interest rates of 11% and 13% respectively.

After Bitcoin crashed at the beginning of June,

both preferred stocks decoupled.

Last time I compared the two products, SATA's parent company had a healthier balance sheet,

so its stock price recovered quickly,

while STRC fell hard, dragging MicroStrategy's stock price down as well.

Now, for MicroStrategy,

with limited bullets, will they choose to sell more coins?

This would have a major impact on Bitcoin.

If they sell again, Bitcoin will likely dip further,

but if STRC's par value doesn’t bounce back to 100 soon, investor confidence will plummet, and we’ve already seen many people panic selling.

From my perspective,

I believe both preferred stocks have a great chance of returning to a par value of 100,

after all, STRC is a place of infinite cash flow,

if this preferred stock breaks down, MicroStrategy will face even bigger and messier holes to fill.

Although I think since the breakdown in early June,

there's a high probability Bitcoin will replicate the market behavior from 2 to 5 months,

MicroStrategy is still a significant hidden bomb,

and investors remain concerned about their coin sales, with MSTR and STRC both breaking down. $BTC $MSTR $ETH

Micron and Hynix have been on a crazy run, memory stocks are unstoppable.

After reducing my SpaceX position at 203u the other day, I picked up a bit of Hynix,

I originally thought there would be a correction for several days after the FOMC,

but everything is starting to bounce back now.

After SPCX took a hit, I plan to re-add to my position,

swing trading in and out of spot.

But I expect to clear out all my US stock positions that I added in the past few days by early July.

The final party "might" happen in the next few weeks.

I’ll be keeping an eye on the QQQ trend,

If it pumps up to around 780 in the next few days, I also plan to exit entirely, maybe I’ll short at that point and share my thoughts.

Let’s see how the profits look when I close my BTC shorts and shift back to US stocks.

If memory stocks keep going crazy, the profits should be solid.

My current position allocation includes:

early Bitcoin shorts, Micron, Hynix, SPCX, IREN, MicroStrategy, gold, and silver.

$MUB $SKHYNIX $SPCXB

This morning I took half off my SpaceX position at 205 to lock in some profits, leaving the other half to ride.

It's so convenient that US stocks can trade without time restrictions.

Since exchanges started rolling out stock-crypto trading,

I’ve been able to keep a sizable position without needing to shift to a US brokerage; I just have my long-term holdings sitting in IB.

If I want to adjust my positions on the fly, the exchanges are way more flexible now.

That's the advantage, I don’t have to wait for US market open to make my moves.

Today’s FOMC meeting and Warsh's speech will likely cause some major fluctuations in the market.

This morning I felt a bit jittery and anxious, so I decided to take some off the table.

After the meeting wraps up, I’ll see if there’s a sweet price to buy back in,

big funds are prepped and ready.

Based on polymarket’s predictions,

it’s highly likely there won’t be a rate cut or hike tonight,

and for Warsh, the best strategy right now is to just stay put.

If SpaceX pumps out, where will the speculative funds flow next?

Right now, folks are already starting to FOMO into Spcx,

but it seems like many are still on the sidelines, hesitant to ape in.

Some even think they're too good for it, believing anyone investing in Spcx has a few screws loose.

But when it continues to moon and becomes unbearable to watch,

those same folks will be chasing it back down the line.

Meanwhile, others will pivot to the so-called "Dragon 2" targets,

this is just the old playbook in the crypto space,

the money game is the same,

the stock market is just a slow-motion version of crypto.

If they miss out on the top dog, people will start digging into the Dragon 2.

Plus, capital is fluid; it will definitely rotate among different assets,

so who’s the next Space Dragon 2?

I'll take a wild guess: RKLB. $SPCXB $SPCX $RKLB

Just a quick update, the little editor's ETF on the exchange has hit 1.64 million.

Since that black swan event, this account took a hit and dropped back to 1.35 million,

and I've decided to invest only in the most stable and conservative ways.

First off, I know many folks can't handle too much volatility,

and on top of that, my mood can easily be affected,

so in our group shares, unless I absolutely have to short and open a position,

90% of my moves are focused on spot trading,

right now, the little editor's ETF is slowly climbing back up.

Taking this slow and steady approach,

there might still be a chance to hit 10 million in the next bull run!

In the past, I was too eager to turn 1 million into 10 million in just six months,

rushing to prove myself, and ended up getting knocked down by the black swan.

Even though I was really bullish on SpaceX yesterday, I only allocated 5% in spot,

worried that someone might get influenced by me and go heavy,

so this account absolutely cannot lose its cool and must grow in the steadiest way.

When the time comes in a few months to bottom-fish Bitcoin,

I just need to sit back and let it grow, because haste makes waste. $SPCXB $SPCX $BTC

If SpaceX keeps pumping, what's gonna happen to the US stock market next?

Right now I’m still in the car,

After I’m done, I gotta do some rational analysis, low circulation and high lock-up volume,

Anyone in the crypto space knows what's coming, and Elon just threw out some wild numbers.

For those with a nose for meme coins, yesterday was a must-buy, it was a big opportunity.

In the past six months, the rhythm of the US stock market has been super similar to the first-tier crypto market,

As long as you’re bold enough to hop in and hammer down, you can see several times the returns.

But for the past six months, I’ve been shorting Bitcoin,

Yesterday, I closed my BTC short and jumped straight into SPCX.

Now everyone’s starting to scream about the SpaceX bubble,

There are two reasons it could pump:

1. Elon’s hype

2. Nasdaq is about to list SPCX, which will bring in massive capital

I know about high valuations and bubbles, of course I get it, bro,

At this point, it’s all about who can “get out” at the right time,

I have a lot of confidence in myself.

This pump feels just like when TrumpCoin launched, I can only say it’s exactly the same,

Back then, TrumpCoin skyrocketed several dozens of times in just three days,

Since TrumpCoin ended, the altcoin season ended too.

With this kind of capital flooding in,

I can pretty much guess that the US stock market will face the same fate as crypto afterward.

But this is the final wild party,

I’m really confident in myself, after riding this wave,

In July and August, once the US stocks finish soaking up the remaining heat, I’m pulling out completely. $SPCXB $SPCX $BTC