JD2 the Moon
Thị trường không chỉ có trắng và đen. Tìm kiếm sự thật nằm giữa các con số BTC & ETH. Chia sẻ góc nhìn khách quan, tĩnh lặng giữa những con sóng crypto. ✨
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Weekly Market Recap
• Gold & silver:
After a series of consecutive ATHs, both have adjusted very strongly in the last session of the week.
→ It is not a narrative of defensive errors, but rather a temporary profit-taking when interest rates remain high.
• Fed & interest rates:
Fed continues to maintain interest rates, USD has not weakened significantly.
→ Defensive assets are starting to lose strength compared to previous expectations.
• US Stocks:
S&P 500 is still hovering around 7,000 points – a historical high range.
After a series of consecutive ATHs, both have adjusted very strongly in the last session of the week.
→ It is not a narrative of defensive errors, but rather a temporary profit-taking when interest rates remain high.
• Fed & interest rates:
Fed continues to maintain interest rates, USD has not weakened significantly.
→ Defensive assets are starting to lose strength compared to previous expectations.
• US Stocks:
S&P 500 is still hovering around 7,000 points – a historical high range.
There is a rather paradoxical thing in the financial market:
• The easiest periods to make money are often missed, while the most uncomfortable periods force people to stay.
• When the market has a clear trend, decisions become easy. But when prices are sideways, narratives are noisy, and money hasn't chosen a side, most investors start to lose patience. They constantly change strategies, constantly change beliefs, and ultimately change their accounts.
In fact, the market does not test our ability to guess correctly as much as it tests our ability to endure uncertainty. Those who survive through unclear periods are often the ones who have enough capital — both financial and mental — when real opportunities arise.
Major cycles rarely begin with a sense of excitement. They often start when everything seems… slow, there is no compelling story, and very few people are patient enough to wait.
Long-term investing, at its deepest level, is not about finding the fastest-growing assets, but about learning how not to eliminate oneself from the game too early.
#DCA #BTC #GOLD
• The easiest periods to make money are often missed, while the most uncomfortable periods force people to stay.
• When the market has a clear trend, decisions become easy. But when prices are sideways, narratives are noisy, and money hasn't chosen a side, most investors start to lose patience. They constantly change strategies, constantly change beliefs, and ultimately change their accounts.
In fact, the market does not test our ability to guess correctly as much as it tests our ability to endure uncertainty. Those who survive through unclear periods are often the ones who have enough capital — both financial and mental — when real opportunities arise.
Major cycles rarely begin with a sense of excitement. They often start when everything seems… slow, there is no compelling story, and very few people are patient enough to wait.
Long-term investing, at its deepest level, is not about finding the fastest-growing assets, but about learning how not to eliminate oneself from the game too early.
#DCA #BTC #GOLD
Is Bitcoin a risk asset or a defensive asset?
Bitcoin is often labeled very inconsistently. Sometimes it moves with Nasdaq, other times it is called 'digital gold'.
The fact is: BTC has two natures at the same time, and its behavior depends on the macro context.
When does Bitcoin behave like a risk-on asset?
• Global liquidity is easing.
• USD is weakening.
• Real interest rates are decreasing.
• Equity is growing strongly.
During this period:
• BTC has a high correlation with Nasdaq.
• Capital inflow into spot + derivatives is increasing.
The fact is: BTC has two natures at the same time, and its behavior depends on the macro context.
When does Bitcoin behave like a risk-on asset?
• Global liquidity is easing.
• USD is weakening.
• Real interest rates are decreasing.
• Equity is growing strongly.
During this period:
• BTC has a high correlation with Nasdaq.
• Capital inflow into spot + derivatives is increasing.
When stocks slow down, gold rises, and the USD has not given way.
2026 is starting with a rather paradoxical setup:
• Equity: SPX is moving sideways within a narrow range — valuations are no longer cheap, investors are waiting for the Fed to confirm the interest rate curve.
• Gold: breakout of the old peak in 2025 — benefiting from geopolitical issues + hedging the portfolio + the narrative of 'insurance asset' returning.
• USD: DXY has not clearly slowed down — making risky assets lack momentum to accelerate.
Noteworthy points in cash flow for 2026:
• Risk-on has yet to see a new leading trend.
• Equity: SPX is moving sideways within a narrow range — valuations are no longer cheap, investors are waiting for the Fed to confirm the interest rate curve.
• Gold: breakout of the old peak in 2025 — benefiting from geopolitical issues + hedging the portfolio + the narrative of 'insurance asset' returning.
• USD: DXY has not clearly slowed down — making risky assets lack momentum to accelerate.
Noteworthy points in cash flow for 2026:
• Risk-on has yet to see a new leading trend.
AI x Crypto = ?
AI is beginning to use blockchain as infrastructure — not just a narrative.
2024–2025, 'AI x Crypto' is marketing hype. Many pitch decks talk about synergy, but there are few real applications.
2026 reversal: less talk, but AI becomes a real user of the chain.
Agent uses blockchain to:
• pay fees,
• store state,
• query decentralized data,
• run contracts,
• self-custody of assets.
No drama, no tokens, no sentiment — only the criteria of the 'machine': fees, throughput, latency, data, uptime.
2024–2025, 'AI x Crypto' is marketing hype. Many pitch decks talk about synergy, but there are few real applications.
2026 reversal: less talk, but AI becomes a real user of the chain.
Agent uses blockchain to:
• pay fees,
• store state,
• query decentralized data,
• run contracts,
• self-custody of assets.
No drama, no tokens, no sentiment — only the criteria of the 'machine': fees, throughput, latency, data, uptime.
Perspective on “why 2026 is more unpredictable than 2025?”
2025 ends with the status “high expectations – uncertain reality” in most financial markets. Moving into 2026, there are 3 points that make the market more unpredictable:
• It's no longer a simple story about interest rates.
• Whether to cut or not is no longer the sole focus — the Fed is balancing growth, employment, and inflation.
• Money flow is not moving in one direction.
• Gold rises, stocks are flat, crypto fluctuates within a range, and bonds await signals. This means there is no “leader” of the new cycle yet.
• It's no longer a simple story about interest rates.
• Whether to cut or not is no longer the sole focus — the Fed is balancing growth, employment, and inflation.
• Money flow is not moving in one direction.
• Gold rises, stocks are flat, crypto fluctuates within a range, and bonds await signals. This means there is no “leader” of the new cycle yet.
Geo/Commodity rotation
2026 begins with a focus on commodities, not crypto.
• Institutional money at the beginning of the year is prioritizing light defense.
• Gold maintains its position as an 'insurance asset' in the context of geopolitical tensions.
• Silver benefits from the industrial + solar narrative.
• Oil is not rising sharply but is more stable compared to 2025.
• USD has not shown clear signs of slowing down, making it difficult for risk assets to gain momentum.
Main narrative:
Money flows before entering growth → often go through safety + defense first.
• Institutional money at the beginning of the year is prioritizing light defense.
• Gold maintains its position as an 'insurance asset' in the context of geopolitical tensions.
• Silver benefits from the industrial + solar narrative.
• Oil is not rising sharply but is more stable compared to 2025.
• USD has not shown clear signs of slowing down, making it difficult for risk assets to gain momentum.
Main narrative:
Money flows before entering growth → often go through safety + defense first.
Sideways is the poorest meta content of crypto
Sideways in the right way:
not enough decrease to be pessimistic,
not enough increase to be happy,
and especially... not enough drama to have content.
In sideways, volume is asleep, sentiment is asleep, and traders open the chart just to close it again. Analysts are 'temporarily observing', holders are 'temporarily silent', while KOLs turn to tell life stories.
The whole market becomes a 'temporary' conference.
The funniest thing is that everyone knows that sideways is to gather energy, but no one knows whether it's to go up or down. Because sideways promises nothing, just says 'wait for me'.
not enough decrease to be pessimistic,
not enough increase to be happy,
and especially... not enough drama to have content.
In sideways, volume is asleep, sentiment is asleep, and traders open the chart just to close it again. Analysts are 'temporarily observing', holders are 'temporarily silent', while KOLs turn to tell life stories.
The whole market becomes a 'temporary' conference.
The funniest thing is that everyone knows that sideways is to gather energy, but no one knows whether it's to go up or down. Because sideways promises nothing, just says 'wait for me'.
GEOPOLITICS AND THE RISE OF "DIGITAL GOLD"
A summary of global financial market fluctuations influenced by the latest geopolitical movements:
1. Immediate market reaction (Short-term)
Heightened geopolitical tensions along with strong statements from the Trump administration regarding new trade agreements have led to a short-term portfolio restructuring:
Traditional safe-haven assets: Gold and Silver have recorded impressive growth as capital seeks safety amid uncertainties.
1. Immediate market reaction (Short-term)
Heightened geopolitical tensions along with strong statements from the Trump administration regarding new trade agreements have led to a short-term portfolio restructuring:
Traditional safe-haven assets: Gold and Silver have recorded impressive growth as capital seeks safety amid uncertainties.
THE CLARITY ACT BILL – WILL CRYPTO "LEVEL UP" OR LOSE ITS ESSENCE?
Hello everyone!
I want to dive deep into a topic that's causing a storm in the U.S.: the CLARITY Act. This isn't just dry legislation—it directly impacts our wallets and future.
I'll summarize the 3 key points to help you understand easily:
1. "Level up" thanks to clear rules
Previously, the crypto industry was always in the "gray area." Now, the CLARITY Act is like a golden ticket. When the law is clear, legal risks decrease, and major players like banks and pension funds will feel confident investing.
I want to dive deep into a topic that's causing a storm in the U.S.: the CLARITY Act. This isn't just dry legislation—it directly impacts our wallets and future.
I'll summarize the 3 key points to help you understand easily:
1. "Level up" thanks to clear rules
Previously, the crypto industry was always in the "gray area." Now, the CLARITY Act is like a golden ticket. When the law is clear, legal risks decrease, and major players like banks and pension funds will feel confident investing.
☕ ON-CHAIN NEWS 07/01: TRACKING THE FOOTPRINTS OF "SHARKS" – ACCUMULATING OR SELLING?
Hello everyone, this morning let's quickly analyze on-chain data to see what the "big players" are doing with their enormous funds:
1. Sharks quietly "pulling out" from the exchange
Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant increase in net Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges over the past 24 hours.
Meaning: When big whales withdraw BTC to cold wallets, selling pressure decreases significantly. They choose to hold (hold) instead of taking profits around $93k.
1. Sharks quietly "pulling out" from the exchange
Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant increase in net Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges over the past 24 hours.
Meaning: When big whales withdraw BTC to cold wallets, selling pressure decreases significantly. They choose to hold (hold) instead of taking profits around $93k.
☕ MORNING BRIEFING: 3 FLUCTUATIONS FROM THE US SESSION LAST NIGHT YOU SHOULD NOT MISS
Hello everyone, I wish you a new week full of energy! To start the workday, I quickly summarize the 3 hottest news from the US market last night for you to catch the market pulse:
1. Bitcoin regains the $93,000 mark – Strong recovery momentum
After a slight shake before the political news, Bitcoin made an impressive comeback during the US session last night, currently trading around $93,150. The total market capitalization has also exceeded $3.1 trillion. It seems that demand from institutions is still very strong, everyone.
1. Bitcoin regains the $93,000 mark – Strong recovery momentum
After a slight shake before the political news, Bitcoin made an impressive comeback during the US session last night, currently trading around $93,150. The total market capitalization has also exceeded $3.1 trillion. It seems that demand from institutions is still very strong, everyone.
🚀 MAY TURNING POINT: FED CHANGES LEADERS, WILL BITCOIN BREAK 100K?
While everyone is busy watching the green and red candles around $90k, I am focusing on a "time bomb" that could completely change the game in May. That is the personnel change at the FED.
I have some actual data I want to share so you can understand: According to data from CME FedWatch, the market is betting on a 65% chance that the FED will lower interest rates by an additional 0.25% in this second quarter. Overall for the year 2026, the financial community is expecting at least 3 rate cuts.
I have some actual data I want to share so you can understand: According to data from CME FedWatch, the market is betting on a 65% chance that the FED will lower interest rates by an additional 0.25% in this second quarter. Overall for the year 2026, the financial community is expecting at least 3 rate cuts.
🚀 DCA & DISCIPLINE: THE FORMULA FOR INVESTING EASILY IN A VOLATILE MARKET
Many people ask me: "With such little capital, can I invest in Crypto?". My answer is: The less capital you have, the sooner you should start with a steel discipline.
Instead of spending the whole day analyzing charts, I choose to allocate a fixed portion of my income each month – even if it's small – to invest in the market. The secret doesn't lie in having a large amount of money or timing the bottom, but in consistency.
📈 Let's look at the actual numbers:
Instead of spending the whole day analyzing charts, I choose to allocate a fixed portion of my income each month – even if it's small – to invest in the market. The secret doesn't lie in having a large amount of money or timing the bottom, but in consistency.
📈 Let's look at the actual numbers:
🚀 SOLANA: FROM "ACHILLES' HEEL" TO "F1 MACHINE" OF CRYPTO
If Bitcoin is Gold, Ethereum is Oil, then Solana (SOL) is like a Formula 1 car: Extremely fast but also full of drama. After historical events, Solana 2026 is no longer the "playful child" that often gets stuck. Why can't we ignore SOL in the portfolio?
🌟 3 Points "Bright" undeniable:
• Firedancer – the new "Heart": This update has solved the chronic network congestion issue, bringing Solana's processing speed to new heights that other Layer 1 competitors must look up to.
🌟 3 Points "Bright" undeniable:
• Firedancer – the new "Heart": This update has solved the chronic network congestion issue, bringing Solana's processing speed to new heights that other Layer 1 competitors must look up to.
🎭 "The Calmness of a Holder"
When the price rises, they say: 'I wish it would drop so I can buy more'. When it drops by 5%, they ask: 'Hey guys, is Bitcoin dead yet?'. Be a Holder with a strong mindset, everyone! 🤡📈
$BTC $ETH
$BTC $ETH
BlackRock currently manages over 13.5 trillion USD in global assets. Just a 1% shift into BTC, and you know what will happen!
THE POWER OF THE "GIANT" BLACKROCK & THE NUMBERS THAT SPEAK 🏛️📊
If you still doubt the position of Bitcoin, just look at these "numbers that don't lie". 🧐
🚀 Speed of light: BlackRock's IBIT fund has reached the milestone of 1 billion USD in assets under management (AUM) just after 4 days of trading. In comparison, the famous Gold ETF (GLD) took nearly 2 years to achieve the same thing.
💰 What is the giant holding? * As of now, the IBIT fund has managed over 20 billion USD (this number is still rapidly growing with the influx of money each day).
🚀 Speed of light: BlackRock's IBIT fund has reached the milestone of 1 billion USD in assets under management (AUM) just after 4 days of trading. In comparison, the famous Gold ETF (GLD) took nearly 2 years to achieve the same thing.
💰 What is the giant holding? * As of now, the IBIT fund has managed over 20 billion USD (this number is still rapidly growing with the influx of money each day).
THE POWER OF THE "GIANT" BLACKROCK & THE NUMBERS THAT SPEAK 🏛️📊
If you still doubt the position of Bitcoin, just look at these "numbers that don't lie". 🧐
🚀 Speed of light: BlackRock's IBIT fund has reached the milestone of 1 billion USD in assets under management (AUM) just after 4 days of trading. In comparison, the famous Gold ETF (GLD) took nearly 2 years to achieve the same thing.
💰 What is the giant holding? * As of now, the IBIT fund has managed over 20 billion USD (this number is still rapidly growing with the influx of money each day).
🚀 Speed of light: BlackRock's IBIT fund has reached the milestone of 1 billion USD in assets under management (AUM) just after 4 days of trading. In comparison, the famous Gold ETF (GLD) took nearly 2 years to achieve the same thing.
💰 What is the giant holding? * As of now, the IBIT fund has managed over 20 billion USD (this number is still rapidly growing with the influx of money each day).
🚀 BITCOIN HISTORY SHATTERED: 2026 WILL NOT BE LIKE 2022?
This cycle is running in an unprecedented way. Have you noticed? 🤔
🔍 Core difference point:
Year three upheaval: Unlike previous cycles (which usually surge before crashing), this third year is adjusting early. 2026 will therefore be a mystery, not simply a -80% crash like in the past.
ATH before Halving: For the first time in BTC history, it broke the old peak before the Halving occurred. The market's "biological clock" has changed due to ETF capital flows.
🔍 Core difference point:
Year three upheaval: Unlike previous cycles (which usually surge before crashing), this third year is adjusting early. 2026 will therefore be a mystery, not simply a -80% crash like in the past.
ATH before Halving: For the first time in BTC history, it broke the old peak before the Halving occurred. The market's "biological clock" has changed due to ETF capital flows.
2026 – SUPER CYCLE OR CRYPTO WINTER? ❄️🔥
Does history repeat itself? After each explosive year, there is usually a harsh "winter." But 2026 will be very different.
📊 Game-changing numbers:
• ETF Power: Over 20 billion USD from institutional capital (BlackRock, Fidelity...) has "locked" into BTC. This is long-term money, not easily panicked into selling.
• Higher lows: If the low in 2022 was $15k, then the low in 2026 is forecasted to be above $40k - $50k even in the event of turmoil.
📊 Game-changing numbers:
• ETF Power: Over 20 billion USD from institutional capital (BlackRock, Fidelity...) has "locked" into BTC. This is long-term money, not easily panicked into selling.
• Higher lows: If the low in 2022 was $15k, then the low in 2026 is forecasted to be above $40k - $50k even in the event of turmoil.
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