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To speak truthfully, these two days $SOL is clearly in a relatively strong state, refusing to dip deeply, and the rebound momentum has never stopped.

This bout of strength is highly synchronized with on-chain data. After on-chain activity picks up, trading demand surges, and SOL is heavily used and purchased as gas (fuel).

In order to participate in the memecoin frenzy, funds keep buying SOL. Changes in supply and demand directly drive this round of price recovery.

2022年FTX崩盘那会儿，恐慌指数最低也就12。现在都干到11了，比当年还低。

今年有个很明显的规律，每次恐慌指数跌到个位数，行情都会来一波反弹。这次，估计也不会例外。#币圈

This morning the big pancake ($BTC ) hit a new low, but the community discussion hype is unbelievably low—so quiet it makes you wonder whether the crypto world is already dead; everyone seems to have gone to US stocks instead. On top of that, after Circle $CRCL was removed from the index, the stock price plunged, and the stablecoin track basically took two heavy blows in one go.

Has crypto really ended? I don’t think so.

Once the AI narrative kicks in, crypto definitely can’t take center stage like it did in 2021. It will lose the spotlight and shift from being the protagonist to a supporting role. But the ETF and the stablecoin bill are a double-edged sword—being “recruited” is one thing; the possibility of acting independently for its own power is gone. Yet, it’s essentially being handed the iron rice bowl of civil service.

As long as the dollar system still relies on US Treasuries to hold it up, this new Treasury-style pickup-and-hold playbook for stablecoins will keep running. Bitcoin, as the core asset, will keep attracting natural inflows. When it falls to a value-for-money level, there will also be large funds actively propping it up, maintaining the heat and continuing to draw retail investors in.

After institutionalization, the floor for the big pancake rises, and the ceiling comes down. Lower volatility is inevitable. Crypto isn’t dead—it’s just been downgraded from the “main character of the new world” to an “on-chain expansion layer for the dollar system + high-beta risk asset.” The valuation ceiling gets capped, so price declines are also reasonable.

In short, there will still be a bull market for the big pancake. The market’s rate-hike expectations are already fully priced in now, and the US dollar index is basically at its limit. If, in the second half of the year, the Fed doesn’t dare to actually keep hiking and instead sends dovish signals to steer rate-cut expectations, liquidity will naturally come back. This week’s Non-Farm Payrolls (the big one) is a key piece of the puzzle. Then we should be able to see some signs—so we’ll keep watching closely.

Let’s first look at the upside potential:

Bitcoin’s next first target is $61,000. If it can decisively break through and hold above this level, there’s a chance it could return to the $65,000–$67,000 trading range. But if it keeps failing to get above $61,000, be careful—there may be another pullback to $58,000, or even lower.

From a long-term perspective, there’s a key signal right now: the on-chain metric MVRV is approaching the region near historical bear-market bottoms. At times like this, retail investors often panic-sell at the bottom, while “smart money” is quietly accumulating. Although major institutions haven’t stepped in with large-scale buying yet, long-term holders are clearly less willing to sell, and selling pressure is beginning to decrease.

So don’t easily give away low-cost lots just because of a small rebound. Long-term capital can now stagger its purchases through DCA and wait patiently for institutional money to enter. The longer the consolidation lasts, the stronger the breakout potential will be afterward.

Now, let’s talk about the short term—why do we think the upside for a big jump is limited?

Because the order-book data shows that the buying power on the U.S. market side is still weak. The Coinbase premium index has also never turned positive, which indicates that the main players’ capital hasn’t really swung into action. The good news is that the values aren’t deeply negative, so the probability of immediately breaking straight through $53,000 in the near term is not high.

The most critical resistance zone above is $60,000–$60,800, which is also why we treat $61,000 as the market’s trend indicator. Simply put: hold above $61,000—bullish; can’t hold—be cautious about a pullback.$BTC

This U.S. president is probably the most “tethered-to-crypto” friend the crypto world has ever seen. Don’t just listen to slogans—look at the money! In public records, his entire family has already earned more than $2.3 billion from crypto assets. How did it come about? Three big pieces:

1.$WLFI project, made $500 million

2.$TRUMP token, made $635 million

3. Reached a settlement with a media company over a lawsuit, bringing in another $80 million

Not only him—his holdings of BTC and ETH are now worth more than $100 million; even Vice President JD Vance has quietly held between $250,000 and $500,000 worth of Bitcoin.

So, this “friendliness” toward crypto isn’t just talk—it's backed by real money, and it’s definitely worth a lot.

Yesterday, this SpaceX move was pretty interesting. First it followed Micron down, faked a dip, then fell to around 150 to test support. After that, it rebounded all the way, topping out near 166. It closed at 164. During the whole day, it traded over 81 million shares, and the volume-price action was reasonably healthy.

After all that yesterday, you don’t need to worry too much for now that <$SPCX > might end up trading below its offering price. Tonight at the open, first we’ll see if it can hold above 160, and then try to push toward 170.

Let’s do the timeline: from now until July 7, when it’s officially set to be included in the Nasdaq, there’s exactly one week left. But Friday is the Independence Day holiday and the market is closed, so in reality there are only four trading days left. On top of that, some capital may front-run and exit early, so the truly effective window for the game is just these three remaining trading days this week.

Next, let’s talk through a few scenarios:

If U.S. stock sentiment is strong enough, SpaceX might just hover a bit around 166–168, then go straight up to 175–180, opening up room overhead. Then, borrowing from the positive sentiment of being included in the Nasdaq, it could rally back toward the 200 area in one push.

If sentiment is average, then it may first pull back to around 160, then trade choppily between 160 and 170, digesting selling pressure through rotation and keeping the momentum until close to the inclusion date before going for an upside push.

If the broader market isn’t doing well, or if Thursday’s big nonfarm payroll data disappoints, it could pull back toward 155. But as long as the 150 level doesn’t break, the overall trend structure is still tilted bullish, so there’s no need to panic.

This meme wave is coming in hard. To put it simply, the scythe-bearers started running early and, while liquidity hasn’t returned yet, they rush to cut a round.

Think about it—if someone has even a bit of capital, who would go play this kind of gambling game at this stage? The dream of seeing a tenfold spike that one night? Wake up. The real big money is waiting—waiting for BTC to move in a clear direction, and for the time when the certainty is higher before making a move.

The market hasn’t really reversed at all, and liquidity hasn’t returned. The “greens” are all watching from the sidelines. If you rush in now, it’s basically going head-to-head with the smartest people in the market. How big of a chance do you really have? If you didn’t catch the right moment, there’s no need to join the chaos.

I just took a look at Binance’s latest published compliance report, and there are a few figures in it that are quite surprising.

First, let’s talk about staffing. The company now has nearly 1,500 employees related to compliance, accounting for roughly a quarter of the entire firm. Based on that, Binance’s total headcount is probably around 6,000. Then there’s the spending: the amount allocated to compliance each year reaches up to $300 million, which is 57% higher than that of traditional financial institutions. The intensity of this investment is really something.

Next, regarding enforcement requests: in 2025 as a whole, it handled 72,000 cases. Just in the first half of this year, it already dealt with 36,000—at this pace, it likely will break records again by year’s end.

All in all, Binance is really going full speed down the road to becoming a “compliance giant.” $BNB

This time, Big Pie may really not be able to hold on!？？？

Look at MicroStrategy—the well-known company that’s loaded with Bitcoin. Just yesterday, they officially announced a large-scale plan to sell Bitcoin and bring the cash back to repurchase their own shares. Last time they sold coins was just a test; this time they’re directly dumping $1.2 billion—clearly they mean business.

So what does that mean?

The key level at 60,000 is very likely to be effectively broken downward, and this is only the beginning. A liquidity crisis is already knocking at the door. If it really starts to fall, first keep an eye on the range from 49,000 to 55,000.

A storm is coming—everyone, hold on tight. $BTC

The AI sector’s signals have recently seemed a bit split: semiconductors and storage are telling two completely opposite stories. On the semiconductor side, U.S. stocks surged nearly 4% yesterday, and AI-related names like Astera Labs even jumped 16%. But oddly enough, last week hedge funds sold technology stocks at a record scale—clearly showing institutions are trimming positions on the rebound, while buyers are mainly retail investors and smaller funds.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley is warning that semiconductors may be topping out. In Asia, SK hynix is still falling too, which suggests capital is shifting from hardware toward more specific, application-layer areas.

Storage, however, is a different picture. Winbond? (No.) GigaDevice has publicly said that storage capacity will increase and prices will fall. That implies the storage price-hike cycle boosted by AI may be nearing its end.

What’s subtle is that Apple and Microsoft have just raised prices because chip costs went up—consumers only start paying now. But by the time the price increase reaches the end market, upstream costs may already be moving downward, and the timing difference happens to line up right at this point.

Overall, the first half of the big AI cycle—when infrastructure expanded rapidly and compute power prices went crazy—is basically over. The second half will be more differentiated. Those who are purely “selling shovels” will face price pressure, while the real winners will be the ones that can build a moat at the application layer. But this logic still hasn’t been fully priced into the secondary market. Astera Labs’ 16% one-day gain suggests smart money has already rotated into more practical, deployment-close sub-sectors like AI network infrastructure.

For crypto, the AI narrative shifting from a hardware super-cycle to application-layer differentiation doesn’t have a direct impact on BTC in the short term, but the overall sentiment for the AI + crypto theme will continue to be dragged by the volatility in the semiconductor segment.

$BTC is down slightly by 0.77% today, still churning in the $59K–$60K range. With month-end rebalancing plus macro uncertainty, the real direction will have to wait for Thursday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.

Musk’s strategic planning ensures that for the next 20 years he will be the world’s richest man
XAI — an AI strategy
Transportation — Tesla
SpaceX — rocket and satellite launches
Social — X, XChat (equivalent to Weibo + WeChat)
Payments — PayPal, Xmoney (traditional payments + crypto)
Neuralink — a brain–computer interface, an implanted chip, helping paralyzed patients regain functions
The Boring Company — an underground tunnel transportation system for cities (solving ground traffic congestion)#原油价格触及四个月低位

$SLX This project has been quite intriguing from the start.

First, it went live on Upbit, but was postponed twice due to liquidity issues; then the team played the game of unlocking delays—originally June 25, pushed to July 5, and then again to July 9. The reason given was to wait for better liquidity. Honestly, you can listen to that kind of excuse. If they didn’t manage the trading properly, they’d probably still push it back after the 9th.

On-chain it’s also quite interesting: Bitget hot wallets transferred funds to the Upbit top-up address, then switched to a new address, and finally deposited the money back to the Bitget deposit address. It detoured and then came right back to the hot wallet. In plain terms, it’s still just playing with liquidity—making it easier to control.

There’s also the “dog pool” style: they like to place a bunch of buy and sell orders with roughly the same amounts at the same time—one side holds it down with sell walls, the other side supports with buy walls. They build depth on the order book while simultaneously creating direction for the market, and as a bonus, they lure retail traders to follow along. It’s the classic “妖币” (manipulative coin) playbook.

So the biggest issue with $SLX right now is still that liquidity isn’t enough. The market maker hasn’t decided it’s a good time to move it out yet.

Market Recap Today:

First, let’s talk about the broader market. The overall trend is basically the same as what we previously predicted: there’s a need for a rebound, but the upside is limited for now—it’s still getting stuck in a sideways trading range.

The $BTC range is 58000–61000, and the $ETH range is 1510–1640. Within these two bands, you can consider doing T. The trading idea is to buy long on the lower side, then switch from long to short near the upper side. No matter whether you go long or short, set your stop-loss at around one tick; if it breaks out, stop out, and if it breaks down, stop out as well.

As for spot trading: there’s basically no need to rush to buy right now, because the profitability effect is very poor. What’s going up is either something most people don’t currently hold, or coins that have already fallen by multiples. A lot of people are asking what to buy. Honestly, if you have some spare money, Bitcoin DCA is fine—it takes time, but in the long run, it has a good chance of making money.

On-chain market:

These past two days the Solana ecosystem has been especially hot. Projects in the M-level, 10M-level, and 100M-level categories have all shown up. Especially that one—black guy’s $ANSEM—it’s unbelievably strong.

So many people keep asking me, “Is it over already? Are we done yet?” My answer never changes: just wait for the black swan.

Look at history: 2014 Mentougou, the 2018 ICO crash, and in 2022 LUNA, Three Arrows, and FTX all blew up one after another. In every bear market, when it bottoms, there’s always a big bomb to go with it. This time, it hasn’t exploded yet.

That drop back in May has already been the third wave after the 100,000 drop. By cyclical patterns, this very likely is the last wave.

Next, watch two things: whether the U.S. stock market can truly hold up, and whether MicroStrategy will run into trouble. Also pay attention to how the Federal Reserve signals on CPI—don’t let them wipe out rate-cut expectations. Until things are clearer, saying “it’s the bottom” is just nonsense.

But there is one figure we can estimate first: the top was 126,000. A 60% drop gives 51,000, and a 66% drop gives 43,000. So around 50,000, it’s likely the bottom region. Don’t try to bet on the absolute lowest point—bet on the lower edge of the range.

That long wick to 58,000 on June 25—if you didn’t dare to act then, over the next few months the market will very likely give you another opportunity. The focus is on July to August.

The unbacked coin has all but stopped working; the backed one is printing money like crazy.

Today $VELVET is too ruthless—within half a day, it went from 1.8 to 2.3. Every brother who opened a short got squeezed out.

The most tragic trade was a short that got liquidated for 84,500 U. And somehow there are still people with a death wish who keep hard-holding and fighting!

Not long ago, people said the Solana network would really blow up. Now it’s clear—it's absolutely insane.

This $ANSEM move is purely because people didn’t get the fundamentals right. When Black brothers call it out, the market cap shoots straight to $110 million. I remember when I first saw it—it was only $5 million. I completely didn’t react in time. Even though yesterday it went in at $20 million, which could still give you a 5x return, I still couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger. Honestly, I’m impressed.

Is it all just gold-buzzing “bulls” flying around on Sol now? Otherwise, the on-chain situation is still a bear market. Capital likes to stick together, and the market only recognizes the one with the strongest consensus. Other derivative plays in the same sector usually don’t get much traction. So if you want to play, just do some swing trades on the leading coin. Copy-trading those setups isn’t really necessary.

The market has clearly become much harder to trade lately. A few coins that are still somewhat decent—like $SYN , $SLX , $VELVET (this one is more “wild”), and $allo—are performing a little better, while basically everything else doesn’t work.

The Alpha project starts off at a very high level right away, with only a small upside/downside range—it's not as easy to make money as before.

It feels like a lot of low-market-cap projects are no longer being taken care of; for example $NFP—its 2nd contract is going to be delisted, and the market cap is only about $3 million.

For Legion’s public offering: if it goes live via squidrouter, you could make around 2 to 3 times. If it doesn’t, you might lose more than half. How to choose depends on you—at least the odds are still fairly good.

Going forward, the main focus should be on the “front line” on Solana. The foundation, together with ansem, has already pulled together a MEME coin with a market cap of 100 million. If Sol wants to regain attention, it probably won’t just do this one.

Overall, things are not very friendly for retail traders right now—it's difficult. The best approach is to play around a bit to get a feel for the market, or just don’t move at all.