Teknik1menit
Historical Analist 8_8
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just 2 plan for $BTC now
retest for another dumping and hit the bottom 50k or we can up higher if we can hit 120k next month we retest in the monthly megaphone pattern and going up to 177k
retest for another dumping and hit the bottom 50k or we can up higher if we can hit 120k next month we retest in the monthly megaphone pattern and going up to 177k
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Has Bitcoin reached its peak now (around $125K) or is there still a chance for $177K like many on-chain analysts target? Let's discuss based on historical data, cycle indicators, and macroeconomic behavior in 2025 👇
🧩 1. Current Bitcoin Cycle Position (November 2025)
If we use the classic Bitcoin cycle model based on the halving cycle (every 4 years):
HalvingYearInitial BullPeak 2025–2026❓❓
⏳ The last halving occurred in April 2024, so historical cycle peaks usually happen 12–18 months after the halving, which is between May 2025 – October 2026.
This means:
Statistics still support that Bitcoin has not reached its main peak.
📈 2. On-Chain Data & Cycle Indicators
Several key indicators used by cycle analysts (Glassnode, LookIntoBitcoin, etc.):
IndicatorCurrent ConditionMeaningMVRV-Z Score3.2 (not extreme)Usually >7 at the peak of a bull runPuell Multiple1.6Peaks usually at >3RHODL RatioRising, but not overheatedStill in mid-cycle phaseRealized Cap HODL WavesLong-term dominance decreasingDistribution starting but not extremeFunding RateNormal → not full euphoriaMarket not in bubble
🧠 On-chain conclusion:
Bitcoin has not shown signs of distribution peaks like in 2017 & 2021. Still in the middle of the expansion phase.
💵 3. Mathematical Target: $177,000 — Still Reasonable?
Several models point to that range:
ModelPeak EstimateExplanationStock-to-Flow (S2F)$165K–$190KBased on post-halving scarcityLog Regression Model$150K–$180KRange of the logarithmic top channelCycle Fibonacci Extension (2021 → 2025)1.618 = $177KSymmetry with previous cyclesTotal Crypto M.Cap Target 20266–7TImplies BTC ≈ $170K–$190K
🎯 So mathematically and historically:
The target of $177K per BTC is still very realistic for the peak cycle of 2025–2026,
as long as there is no major macro crisis (e.g., global war, extreme stagflation, etc.).
🧩 1. Current Bitcoin Cycle Position (November 2025)
If we use the classic Bitcoin cycle model based on the halving cycle (every 4 years):
HalvingYearInitial BullPeak 2025–2026❓❓
⏳ The last halving occurred in April 2024, so historical cycle peaks usually happen 12–18 months after the halving, which is between May 2025 – October 2026.
This means:
Statistics still support that Bitcoin has not reached its main peak.
📈 2. On-Chain Data & Cycle Indicators
Several key indicators used by cycle analysts (Glassnode, LookIntoBitcoin, etc.):
IndicatorCurrent ConditionMeaningMVRV-Z Score3.2 (not extreme)Usually >7 at the peak of a bull runPuell Multiple1.6Peaks usually at >3RHODL RatioRising, but not overheatedStill in mid-cycle phaseRealized Cap HODL WavesLong-term dominance decreasingDistribution starting but not extremeFunding RateNormal → not full euphoriaMarket not in bubble
🧠 On-chain conclusion:
Bitcoin has not shown signs of distribution peaks like in 2017 & 2021. Still in the middle of the expansion phase.
💵 3. Mathematical Target: $177,000 — Still Reasonable?
Several models point to that range:
ModelPeak EstimateExplanationStock-to-Flow (S2F)$165K–$190KBased on post-halving scarcityLog Regression Model$150K–$180KRange of the logarithmic top channelCycle Fibonacci Extension (2021 → 2025)1.618 = $177KSymmetry with previous cyclesTotal Crypto M.Cap Target 20266–7TImplies BTC ≈ $170K–$190K
🎯 So mathematically and historically:
The target of $177K per BTC is still very realistic for the peak cycle of 2025–2026,
as long as there is no major macro crisis (e.g., global war, extreme stagflation, etc.).
$BTC If we hold here, we could get another pump, the monthly candlestick still looks bullish, but we need to keep an eye on how the market makers are going to move _👀
#MarketRebound
#MarketRebound
$JASMY koin monitoring from cycle 4 years ago but not delisted until now, great potential to rise 10x plus project $JCT still hype too
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