Vinicius Velasque
Apresentador do Cozinha OnChain, onde cripto e gastronomia se encontram.
Entrevistas com grandes nomes do mercado enquanto preparamos pratos de verdade.
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A whale closed its short position in SILVER
💥 Loss: US$ 4.791.000
After bleeding in the traditional market…
👀 It returned to trade CRYPTOCURRENCIES.
This is not random.
📉 Silver crushed shorts.
📈 Volatility returned to crypto.
🧠 Big capital flees from "locked" markets.
Follow the money. Always.
💥 Loss: US$ 4.791.000
After bleeding in the traditional market…
👀 It returned to trade CRYPTOCURRENCIES.
This is not random.
📉 Silver crushed shorts.
📈 Volatility returned to crypto.
🧠 Big capital flees from "locked" markets.
Follow the money. Always.
The silver chart may be anticipating the next big move of Bitcoin.
The breakout structure of SILVER is mapping something big for Bitcoin.
It is not a price correlation.
It is a market fractal + Wyckoff.
Structure comes before price, Always.
Silver has gone through:
• Long accumulation
• Spring + Test
• LPS
• Breakout of the Creek
• Direct entry in Phase E (vertical markup)
After the LPS, there was no consolidation. Only expansion.
Now look at Bitcoin.
✔️ Accumulation 2022–2023
✔️ Spring + Test
✔️ LPS confirmed
✔️ SOS done
The current price is not a top.
It is not a price correlation.
It is a market fractal + Wyckoff.
Structure comes before price, Always.
Silver has gone through:
• Long accumulation
• Spring + Test
• LPS
• Breakout of the Creek
• Direct entry in Phase E (vertical markup)
After the LPS, there was no consolidation. Only expansion.
Now look at Bitcoin.
✔️ Accumulation 2022–2023
✔️ Spring + Test
✔️ LPS confirmed
✔️ SOS done
The current price is not a top.
🔥 BREAKING
Tether has just turned the game around.
It has launched the USAT:
• dollar-backed stablecoin
• created in the USA
• federally regulated
After years of being "fought against", the crypto now emerges within the American system and with the seal that Wall Street has always demanded.
This is not just a stablecoin.
It is the definitive institutionalization of the on-chain dollar.
👀 The market has yet to understand the significance of this.
#crypto #stablecoin #TrendingTopic #FedWatch
Tether has just turned the game around.
It has launched the USAT:
• dollar-backed stablecoin
• created in the USA
• federally regulated
After years of being "fought against", the crypto now emerges within the American system and with the seal that Wall Street has always demanded.
This is not just a stablecoin.
It is the definitive institutionalization of the on-chain dollar.
👀 The market has yet to understand the significance of this.
#crypto #stablecoin #TrendingTopic #FedWatch
🟡 Gold has just reached a historic market value record:
💵US$ 35.3 TRILLION
This is about 20 times the market value of Bitcoin today.
📊 In simple numbers:
• Gold: US$ 35.3T
• Bitcoin: US$ 1.75T
👉 If Bitcoin had the same market value as gold,
the price of 1 $BTC would have to exceed US$ 1.7 MILLION.
This is not a forecast.
This is not a promise.
It's math + scale.
The real question is not "if".
It's "when" and how much of the journey will you watch from the outside?
#btc #GOLD #crypto #ATH
💵US$ 35.3 TRILLION
This is about 20 times the market value of Bitcoin today.
📊 In simple numbers:
• Gold: US$ 35.3T
• Bitcoin: US$ 1.75T
👉 If Bitcoin had the same market value as gold,
the price of 1 $BTC would have to exceed US$ 1.7 MILLION.
This is not a forecast.
This is not a promise.
It's math + scale.
The real question is not "if".
It's "when" and how much of the journey will you watch from the outside?
#btc #GOLD #crypto #ATH
Silver rose +14% and returned 100%.
This is typical of excessively leveraged markets: the price accelerates with FOMO, liquidity disappears at the top and, upon reversal, stops and margin calls generate forced sales.
It's not about silver, it's about market structure.
#silver #BTC #blockchain #crypto
This is typical of excessively leveraged markets: the price accelerates with FOMO, liquidity disappears at the top and, upon reversal, stops and margin calls generate forced sales.
It's not about silver, it's about market structure.
#silver #BTC #blockchain #crypto
Whales are BUYING Bitcoin now.
Largest net inflow of $BTC in 90 days in recent history.
This is not FOMO.
It is not retail.
It is front-running.
When this happens, the price often tells the story afterwards.
#btc #blockchain #Whale.Alert
Largest net inflow of $BTC in 90 days in recent history.
This is not FOMO.
It is not retail.
It is front-running.
When this happens, the price often tells the story afterwards.
#btc #blockchain #Whale.Alert
In Nov/2024, Bitcoin surpassed silver in market cap. Today, silver is worth 3 times more.
Nov/2024: Bitcoin's market cap briefly surpassed that of silver — symbolic shock.
Now: silver is worth 3 times more than BTC in capitalization.
Silver price: significant breakouts + clear acceleration → parabolic structure, typical of a monetary asset reacting to:
persistent inflation
fiscal/global stress
rush for hard assets
🧠 Strategic reading (the point that few make)
This does not invalidate Bitcoin.
On the contrary — it shows where we are in the cycle.Silver tends to move strongly before capital migrates to more 'volatile monetary' assets.
Now: silver is worth 3 times more than BTC in capitalization.
Silver price: significant breakouts + clear acceleration → parabolic structure, typical of a monetary asset reacting to:
persistent inflation
fiscal/global stress
rush for hard assets
🧠 Strategic reading (the point that few make)
This does not invalidate Bitcoin.
On the contrary — it shows where we are in the cycle.Silver tends to move strongly before capital migrates to more 'volatile monetary' assets.
US$ 9.5 BILLION in shorts above US$ 100k.
Why is US$ 100k a dangerous level for those who are short in $BTC
Above US$ 100k there are US$ 9.5B in short positions.
This is not technical resistance.
It's concentrated risk.
What happens if the price rises?
When the $BTC rises:
the short's loss increases
the margin decreases
the broker forces the closure
Closing shorts = buying $BTC at market.
This pushes the price even higher.
That's why we call it a short squeeze
It's not euphoria.
It's mathematics.
The price rises → shorts break → forced buying → price accelerates.
Above US$ 100k there are US$ 9.5B in short positions.
This is not technical resistance.
It's concentrated risk.
What happens if the price rises?
When the $BTC rises:
the short's loss increases
the margin decreases
the broker forces the closure
Closing shorts = buying $BTC at market.
This pushes the price even higher.
That's why we call it a short squeeze
It's not euphoria.
It's mathematics.
The price rises → shorts break → forced buying → price accelerates.
Ethereum and Wyckoff: what the chart is really saying
Ethereum is not 'stopped'.
It is in accumulation.
According to the Wyckoff model, this type of structure is built in phases, and each has a clear function:
🔹 Phase A – Interrupts the downtrend
🔹 Phase B – Time + lateralization to absorb supply
🔹 Phase C – Spring: last liquidity cleanup
🔹 Phase D – Character change (LPS / SOS)
🔹 Phase E – Trend establishes
What seems like boredom is, in fact, market engineering.
📉 Price moves sideways to:
It is in accumulation.
According to the Wyckoff model, this type of structure is built in phases, and each has a clear function:
🔹 Phase A – Interrupts the downtrend
🔹 Phase B – Time + lateralization to absorb supply
🔹 Phase C – Spring: last liquidity cleanup
🔹 Phase D – Character change (LPS / SOS)
🔹 Phase E – Trend establishes
What seems like boredom is, in fact, market engineering.
📉 Price moves sideways to:
🚨 A trader turned US$ 53 thousand into US$ 1.5 MILLION in $PENGUIN in just 72h…
And you know what's the craziest part?
👉 He DIDN'T SELL ANYTHING.
Smart money doesn't exit on the first pump.
It exits when the crowd thinks they've "missed the chance".
Those who sell early profit.
Those who hold right, change their level. 🧠💰
Would you sell or hold? 👇
#crypto #blockchain #trader #futures
And you know what's the craziest part?
👉 He DIDN'T SELL ANYTHING.
Smart money doesn't exit on the first pump.
It exits when the crowd thinks they've "missed the chance".
Those who sell early profit.
Those who hold right, change their level. 🧠💰
Would you sell or hold? 👇
#crypto #blockchain #trader #futures
🚨 SharpLink and the "strategic reserve" of $ETH became a risk thermometer.
The print mentions -US$ 197M of unrealized loss...
but public data now points to something close to -US$ 552M (mark-to-market).
This is NOT realized loss.
It's the price of $ETH saying: "good morning."
Honest question:
📉 if a company holds 0.7% of the supply, is that conviction... or leveraged beta with infinite time?
Comment: would you hold or reduce? 👇
#eth #crypto #blockchain #ETHMarketWatch
The print mentions -US$ 197M of unrealized loss...
but public data now points to something close to -US$ 552M (mark-to-market).
This is NOT realized loss.
It's the price of $ETH saying: "good morning."
Honest question:
📉 if a company holds 0.7% of the supply, is that conviction... or leveraged beta with infinite time?
Comment: would you hold or reduce? 👇
#eth #crypto #blockchain #ETHMarketWatch
📊 Analysis — BTC x Global Liquidity (Fair Value Model)
The chart shows three key things:
• Green line (Fair Value) → "fair" price of BTC based on global liquidity
• Orange line (BTC Price) → market price
• Shaded area → acceptable statistical zone (±1 deviation)
What this says today:
• The price of $BTC is below or very close to the Fair Value, even with:
• Global liquidity expanding
• Less restrictive monetary policy on the horizon
• Structural entry of institutional capital (ETFs, custody, derivatives)
📌 In previous cycles, when $BTC was below Fair Value, it did not last long; the adjustment came through the price, not through liquidity.
👉 In other words: it is not that $BTC is weak, it is the liquidity that has not yet been fully priced in.
🧠 Simple translation
The market has not yet reflected all the liquidity available in the global system.
When this happens, historically, Bitcoin catches up.
#btc #Onchain #analysis #crypto
The chart shows three key things:
• Green line (Fair Value) → "fair" price of BTC based on global liquidity
• Orange line (BTC Price) → market price
• Shaded area → acceptable statistical zone (±1 deviation)
What this says today:
• The price of $BTC is below or very close to the Fair Value, even with:
• Global liquidity expanding
• Less restrictive monetary policy on the horizon
• Structural entry of institutional capital (ETFs, custody, derivatives)
📌 In previous cycles, when $BTC was below Fair Value, it did not last long; the adjustment came through the price, not through liquidity.
👉 In other words: it is not that $BTC is weak, it is the liquidity that has not yet been fully priced in.
🧠 Simple translation
The market has not yet reflected all the liquidity available in the global system.
When this happens, historically, Bitcoin catches up.
#btc #Onchain #analysis #crypto
📊 Chart Analysis (FDV vs TVL – Ethereum)
The chart compares the Fully Diluted Market Cap (FDV) of Ethereum with the total TVL of the ecosystem. Historically, this relationship acts as a thermometer for structural undervaluation.
🔍 What the red circles show
In the last two times the FDV of $ETH fell below or touched the TVL:
2020
2022
👉 Both marked macro bottom zones and asymmetric buying opportunities before significant upward movements.
Today, the chart shows again:
📉 Compression between FDV and TVL
🔍 What the red circles show
In the last two times the FDV of $ETH fell below or touched the TVL:
2020
2022
👉 Both marked macro bottom zones and asymmetric buying opportunities before significant upward movements.
Today, the chart shows again:
📉 Compression between FDV and TVL
BTC: Correction ≠ Structural Collapse
The $BTC lost the 50-week Moving Average (MA50) on the weekly chart.
This signals short-term weakness, not the end of the cycle.
Bull markets undergo corrections — this is structural.
Historically, the loss of the MA50 in bull cycles:
• Indicates corrective phase
• Reduces leverage
• Reprices risk
❌ Does not confirm trend reversal by itself.
The price is now testing the 'Make or Break' zone, with the MA50 acting as dynamic resistance.
This behavior is typical of intermediate corrections before the next directional leg.
This signals short-term weakness, not the end of the cycle.
Bull markets undergo corrections — this is structural.
Historically, the loss of the MA50 in bull cycles:
• Indicates corrective phase
• Reduces leverage
• Reprices risk
❌ Does not confirm trend reversal by itself.
The price is now testing the 'Make or Break' zone, with the MA50 acting as dynamic resistance.
This behavior is typical of intermediate corrections before the next directional leg.
"China found more than 1,000 tons of gold."
Translating: someone made an underground PowerPoint.
There is no gold without:
• drilling
• cost
• risk
• state control
Bitcoin does not ask for permission.
It does not depend on a geologist.
It does not appear "out of nowhere."
⛏️ Gold is a promise.
🟠 Bitcoin is execution.
Try to find more $BTC .
#BTC #crypto #blockchain
Translating: someone made an underground PowerPoint.
There is no gold without:
• drilling
• cost
• risk
• state control
Bitcoin does not ask for permission.
It does not depend on a geologist.
It does not appear "out of nowhere."
⛏️ Gold is a promise.
🟠 Bitcoin is execution.
Try to find more $BTC .
#BTC #crypto #blockchain
The debate is not 'has altseason died or not'. It's relative structure.
ETH/BTC has remained in compression for ~1100 days within the same range that marked the breakout of the previous cycle.
ALTS/BTC show defense of historical support after multiple years of underperformance.
This characterizes a transition zone, not a defined trend.
Prolonged compressions alter asymmetry.
The risk is not only of continued decline, but also of violent directional movement when:
• dominance of $BTC stabilizes
• risk spreads begin to close
• marginal flow seeks beta
ALTS/BTC show defense of historical support after multiple years of underperformance.
This characterizes a transition zone, not a defined trend.
Prolonged compressions alter asymmetry.
The risk is not only of continued decline, but also of violent directional movement when:
• dominance of $BTC stabilizes
• risk spreads begin to close
• marginal flow seeks beta
🚨 BE CAREFUL WITH THE “LOOKS LIKE 2022” TRAP
Yes, Bitcoin drew a bearish flag.
Yes, LTF and HTF are pointing downwards.
❌ But those comparing this to 2022 are only looking at the chart.
In 2022:
👉 The FED drained liquidity mercilessly.
👉 Aggressive QT.
👉 Scarce dollar.
Now:
👉 The FED's balance sheet is not tightening.
👉 Liquidity continues in the system.
👉 ETFs have created structural demand.
📉 The chart is frightening.
💧 Liquidity is reassuring.
The market doesn't break due to patterns.
It breaks due to lack of money.
Are you trading the chart…
or the macro? 👀
Yes, Bitcoin drew a bearish flag.
Yes, LTF and HTF are pointing downwards.
❌ But those comparing this to 2022 are only looking at the chart.
In 2022:
👉 The FED drained liquidity mercilessly.
👉 Aggressive QT.
👉 Scarce dollar.
Now:
👉 The FED's balance sheet is not tightening.
👉 Liquidity continues in the system.
👉 ETFs have created structural demand.
📉 The chart is frightening.
💧 Liquidity is reassuring.
The market doesn't break due to patterns.
It breaks due to lack of money.
Are you trading the chart…
or the macro? 👀
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