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Bitcoin cycle low around ~$25,000 in 2026
This chart suggests a #bitcoin cycle low around ~$25,000 in 2026 👀
If this plays out, it wouldn’t be shocking. Deep bear markets historically compress sentiment to extremes long after the majority believes the pain is already over.
The real question isn’t whether $25k is possible it’s how prepared people are to buy when narratives are dead, volume is gone, and conviction is at its lowest.
Markets don’t bottom when hope exists.
They bottom when everyone stops caring.
If this model is even partially right, 2026 could be where long-term wealth is quietly built not chased.
#CPIWatch #WriteToEarnUpgrade $BTC $XRP $ETH
If this plays out, it wouldn’t be shocking. Deep bear markets historically compress sentiment to extremes long after the majority believes the pain is already over.
The real question isn’t whether $25k is possible it’s how prepared people are to buy when narratives are dead, volume is gone, and conviction is at its lowest.
Markets don’t bottom when hope exists.
They bottom when everyone stops caring.
If this model is even partially right, 2026 could be where long-term wealth is quietly built not chased.
#CPIWatch #WriteToEarnUpgrade $BTC $XRP $ETH
$WLFI Bullish Continuation Setup – Momentum Is Back
$WLFI has officially confirmed a local bottom around 0.117 and is now trading firmly above H1 & H4 EMAs, signaling a strong shift in short-term structure.
RSI on intraday timeframes continues to trend upward, reflecting increasing buying pressure as price moves toward higher daily resistance zones. As long as price holds above the EMA cluster, the bullish scenario remains intact.
Trade Plan: Long $WLFI
Entry zone: 0.134 – 0.138
🎯 TP1: 0.1415 – secure partial profit
🎯 TP2: 0.1460 – test daily resistance
🎯 TP3: 0.1505 – bullish extension target
🛑 Stop loss: 0.1305
Risk–reward remains attractive, especially for continuation traders following momentum and structure. A clean breakout above TP1 could accelerate price toward TP2–TP3 quickly.
👉 Trade smart, manage risk, and let the market do the rest.
Click & trade $WLFI below what’s your final target?
#WLFI #TrumpEndsShutdown #TradingSignals
RSI on intraday timeframes continues to trend upward, reflecting increasing buying pressure as price moves toward higher daily resistance zones. As long as price holds above the EMA cluster, the bullish scenario remains intact.
Trade Plan: Long $WLFI
Entry zone: 0.134 – 0.138
🎯 TP1: 0.1415 – secure partial profit
🎯 TP2: 0.1460 – test daily resistance
🎯 TP3: 0.1505 – bullish extension target
🛑 Stop loss: 0.1305
Risk–reward remains attractive, especially for continuation traders following momentum and structure. A clean breakout above TP1 could accelerate price toward TP2–TP3 quickly.
👉 Trade smart, manage risk, and let the market do the rest.
Click & trade $WLFI below what’s your final target?
#WLFI #TrumpEndsShutdown #TradingSignals
At an attractive price, BTC will likely become strong again and surpass its previous all-time high. Buy when you have the chance!
Yes, and I'm waiting for BTC at 62k
$BTC Market Structure: The Only Two Paths That Matter
Zooming out and stripping away the noise, Bitcoin is currently operating within a classic market structure framework.
At this stage of the cycle, there are realistically only two valid scenarios and both remain bullish in higher-timeframe context.
The first path is major re-accumulation followed by expansion, a controlled check-back, and then continuation.
This is the scenario where smart money absorbs supply aggressively, volatility expands upward, and any pullbacks are corrective rather than destructive.
Momentum returns quickly, confidence rebuilds, and price resumes trend continuation without prolonged stagnation.
The second path is major re-accumulation transitioning into consolidation, followed by a check-back, and then expansion. This version is slower and more frustrating, designed to exhaust both bulls and bears.
Price compresses, sentiment decays, and conviction is tested but structure remains intact. Once consolidation completes, expansion tends to be sharper and more decisive due to the extended buildup of energy.
What’s important is what’s not on the table. These structures do not imply trend failure or cycle termination.
They describe different expressions of strength one fast and impulsive, the other slow and absorptive. Both serve the same purpose: transferring supply from weak hands to strong ones before continuation.
Markets don’t move to reward conviction; they move to punish impatience. Whether Bitcoin chooses speed or compression, the macro signal remains the same re-accumulation precedes expansion.
The question isn’t if continuation comes.
It’s whether you’re positioned to sit through the process without being shaken out.
How are you reading the current $BTC structure fast expansion, or slow absorption before the move?
#BTC #StrategyBTCPurchase #USCryptoMarketStructureBill
At this stage of the cycle, there are realistically only two valid scenarios and both remain bullish in higher-timeframe context.
The first path is major re-accumulation followed by expansion, a controlled check-back, and then continuation.
This is the scenario where smart money absorbs supply aggressively, volatility expands upward, and any pullbacks are corrective rather than destructive.
Momentum returns quickly, confidence rebuilds, and price resumes trend continuation without prolonged stagnation.
The second path is major re-accumulation transitioning into consolidation, followed by a check-back, and then expansion. This version is slower and more frustrating, designed to exhaust both bulls and bears.
Price compresses, sentiment decays, and conviction is tested but structure remains intact. Once consolidation completes, expansion tends to be sharper and more decisive due to the extended buildup of energy.
What’s important is what’s not on the table. These structures do not imply trend failure or cycle termination.
They describe different expressions of strength one fast and impulsive, the other slow and absorptive. Both serve the same purpose: transferring supply from weak hands to strong ones before continuation.
Markets don’t move to reward conviction; they move to punish impatience. Whether Bitcoin chooses speed or compression, the macro signal remains the same re-accumulation precedes expansion.
The question isn’t if continuation comes.
It’s whether you’re positioned to sit through the process without being shaken out.
How are you reading the current $BTC structure fast expansion, or slow absorption before the move?
#BTC #StrategyBTCPurchase #USCryptoMarketStructureBill
We are now in the area that this move will finish!
And this section below the 74k lows will provide the springboard for the next macro leg higher.
$BTC is only down 40% and its 1W RSI has reached levels that previously took 80% moves to reach.
I am convinced based on all my analysis that what we have experienced here is a mid cycle top that will not follow the standard bear market plan as we did not follow the same bull market plan.
This situation we are in is fundamentally different.
This period is essentially the max pain version of this thesis playing out.
Taking the lows, losing 74k temporarily, pushing everyone over the edge, even the most staunch of bulls... baiting a massive bear trap.
And then a whipsaw up fueled by late shorters and the insane amount of liquidity that has been built up higher.
There is now $25bn in longs up to $110k.
This liquidity has been built up and not taken yet for a reason.
They are going to go back for it all.
This is the worst area to flip your bias you should be looking to accumulate, not sell.
Even if you are convinced we are going to $35k, you would want to wait for a bounce higher, let long liq build up again, and short higher.
This will all be resolved and feb and it is my belief we enter the next macro leg higher, which would be the most shocking outcome.
#BTC #btc70k #WhenWillBTCRebound
And this section below the 74k lows will provide the springboard for the next macro leg higher.
$BTC is only down 40% and its 1W RSI has reached levels that previously took 80% moves to reach.
I am convinced based on all my analysis that what we have experienced here is a mid cycle top that will not follow the standard bear market plan as we did not follow the same bull market plan.
This situation we are in is fundamentally different.
This period is essentially the max pain version of this thesis playing out.
Taking the lows, losing 74k temporarily, pushing everyone over the edge, even the most staunch of bulls... baiting a massive bear trap.
And then a whipsaw up fueled by late shorters and the insane amount of liquidity that has been built up higher.
There is now $25bn in longs up to $110k.
This liquidity has been built up and not taken yet for a reason.
They are going to go back for it all.
This is the worst area to flip your bias you should be looking to accumulate, not sell.
Even if you are convinced we are going to $35k, you would want to wait for a bounce higher, let long liq build up again, and short higher.
This will all be resolved and feb and it is my belief we enter the next macro leg higher, which would be the most shocking outcome.
#BTC #btc70k #WhenWillBTCRebound
WangLoc BNB
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$BTC Near the Point of Maximum Pain
The recent price action has forced an important reassessment. Once $BTC lost the key range levels, the market also lost its ability to move impulsively to the upside.
That invalidated the running flat scenario and instead confirmed a clean ABC corrective structure.
From there, price pushed into new lows, drifting dangerously close to the higher-timeframe structure break around $74k a level that historically represents the worst-case pain point markets tend to inflict before reversing.
This is not random. Markets don’t usually turn when sentiment is balanced; they turn when positioning and psychology are stretched to extremes.
Right now, several pieces are aligning. We have new macro data shifting, metals showing signs of topping behavior, and the ISM breaking out a combination that has previously marked transitions rather than continuations of downside.
Against this backdrop, my base case is that this mini bear phase exhausts itself in February through an expanded flat, ideally as close as possible to invalidation.
If that scenario plays out, the psychology will be textbook. Bearish narratives will be louder than at any point this cycle.
Shorts will aggressively pile in below $74k, fully convinced the market is broken and the cycle is over. Ironically, that conviction becomes the fuel.
With liquidity heavily stacked above and short positioning crowded at the lows, the conditions for a sharp reversal are created not despite the fear, but because of it. A reclaim and close back above $74k by the end of February would fit perfectly within that framework.
I don’t need universal agreement on this view, and I’m fully aware markets can invalidate any thesis. But based on structure, macro context, and positioning dynamics, my conviction remains that this is not a true bear market.
I believe $BTC will make new highs this year, and my positioning reflects that belief.
This is the game we’re all playing. The market doesn’t reward certainty it rewards understanding risk, structure, and psychology.
Do you see this as distribution before a deeper collapse, or accumulation before re-expansion for $BTC ?
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC #btc70k #WhenWillBTCRebound
That invalidated the running flat scenario and instead confirmed a clean ABC corrective structure.
From there, price pushed into new lows, drifting dangerously close to the higher-timeframe structure break around $74k a level that historically represents the worst-case pain point markets tend to inflict before reversing.
This is not random. Markets don’t usually turn when sentiment is balanced; they turn when positioning and psychology are stretched to extremes.
Right now, several pieces are aligning. We have new macro data shifting, metals showing signs of topping behavior, and the ISM breaking out a combination that has previously marked transitions rather than continuations of downside.
Against this backdrop, my base case is that this mini bear phase exhausts itself in February through an expanded flat, ideally as close as possible to invalidation.
If that scenario plays out, the psychology will be textbook. Bearish narratives will be louder than at any point this cycle.
Shorts will aggressively pile in below $74k, fully convinced the market is broken and the cycle is over. Ironically, that conviction becomes the fuel.
With liquidity heavily stacked above and short positioning crowded at the lows, the conditions for a sharp reversal are created not despite the fear, but because of it. A reclaim and close back above $74k by the end of February would fit perfectly within that framework.
I don’t need universal agreement on this view, and I’m fully aware markets can invalidate any thesis. But based on structure, macro context, and positioning dynamics, my conviction remains that this is not a true bear market.
I believe $BTC will make new highs this year, and my positioning reflects that belief.
This is the game we’re all playing. The market doesn’t reward certainty it rewards understanding risk, structure, and psychology.
Do you see this as distribution before a deeper collapse, or accumulation before re-expansion for $BTC ?
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#BTC #btc70k #WhenWillBTCRebound
DeCRYPTion Ep.083
- $BTC & NVIDIA Similarities
- Liquidation Levels
- $SOL & The Power of DCA'ing
Not done yet folks.
#BTC #MarketAnalysis #CryptoAnalysis
- $BTC & NVIDIA Similarities
- Liquidation Levels
- $SOL & The Power of DCA'ing
Not done yet folks.
#BTC #MarketAnalysis #CryptoAnalysis
$BTC Macro Outlook: Time Is Still the Ally
It’s been a while since I shared a broader macro view, so here’s a clean and realistic outlook without over-engineering the narrative.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has now printed three consecutive rejections in the mid-range, something we have not seen in previous cycles.
This loss of acceptance naturally opens the path for a move below the 0.25 trendline, not as a breakdown signal, but as a continuation of the current corrective phase.
Price action beneath the trendline is forming a rising wedge, and within this context, a rejection and push lower would be considered textbook behavior rather than a bearish anomaly.
Based on this structure, I’ve added a high-level projection that highlights where the market may seek equilibrium. Current macro support sits around the $60k region, which remains the most relevant structural level if downside pressure continues.
That said, one variable consistently working in favor of the larger trend is time. The longer price compresses and drifts without impulsive expansion, the higher both the eventual breakout level and the potential bottom tend to form.
Ideally, a pullback toward the $68k area aligning with the 200 EMA on the weekly would provide a technically healthy reset without damaging the broader bullish structure.
What makes this phase interesting is context. In past cycles, Bitcoin typically transitioned from support to resistance twice before resuming expansion.
This cycle marks the first instance of three mid-range rejections, suggesting that while a correction is still valid, its duration and depth may be more limited than many expect.
This is not a call for panic or euphoria. It’s a reminder that structure evolves, cycles adapt, and corrections are part of trend continuation not trend termination. The market is recalibrating, not collapsing.
How are you interpreting this macro phase for $BTC patience, defense, or quiet accumulation?
#BTC #Macro #btc70k
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has now printed three consecutive rejections in the mid-range, something we have not seen in previous cycles.
This loss of acceptance naturally opens the path for a move below the 0.25 trendline, not as a breakdown signal, but as a continuation of the current corrective phase.
Price action beneath the trendline is forming a rising wedge, and within this context, a rejection and push lower would be considered textbook behavior rather than a bearish anomaly.
Based on this structure, I’ve added a high-level projection that highlights where the market may seek equilibrium. Current macro support sits around the $60k region, which remains the most relevant structural level if downside pressure continues.
That said, one variable consistently working in favor of the larger trend is time. The longer price compresses and drifts without impulsive expansion, the higher both the eventual breakout level and the potential bottom tend to form.
Ideally, a pullback toward the $68k area aligning with the 200 EMA on the weekly would provide a technically healthy reset without damaging the broader bullish structure.
What makes this phase interesting is context. In past cycles, Bitcoin typically transitioned from support to resistance twice before resuming expansion.
This cycle marks the first instance of three mid-range rejections, suggesting that while a correction is still valid, its duration and depth may be more limited than many expect.
This is not a call for panic or euphoria. It’s a reminder that structure evolves, cycles adapt, and corrections are part of trend continuation not trend termination. The market is recalibrating, not collapsing.
How are you interpreting this macro phase for $BTC patience, defense, or quiet accumulation?
#BTC #Macro #btc70k
$BTC at a Critical Geometric Inflection — What the Fib Circles Are Signaling
Quick clarification after the earlier post there was a scaling issue on the monthly chart. This view is based on the correctly inscribed Fibonacci circles on the 3-day timeframe, and the structure here is extremely important.
Price is still hugging the 0.786 fib circle, respecting it with precision, which tells us this level is acting as dynamic geometric support rather than just a static price zone.
What stands out is the timing. After February 18th, price will have fully crossed this 0.786 circle and enter a zone with no circular support beneath it.
Historically, when Bitcoin exits one of these fib circles, volatility expands and directional intent becomes much clearer, because the market is no longer being “guided” by geometric compression. It either accelerates or resolves sharply.
It’s also worth noting that the previous all-time high topped exactly at the pink fib circle not approximately, but structurally aligned once again.
This reinforces that these circular levels are not arbitrary drawings, but recurring areas where price exhausts or transitions.
The takeaway here isn’t to predict an exact outcome, but to recognize where we are in the structure.
Bitcoin is approaching a zone where support shifts from geometric to purely market-driven.
That transition phase is often uncomfortable, noisy, and emotionally charged but it’s also where larger moves are born.
As we move past mid-February, the question becomes simple: does price re-accelerate with strength, or does the absence of circular support expose weakness?
Either way, this is a level traders and investors should not be ignoring.
How are you positioning as $BTC approaches this geometric reset point?
#bitcoin #btc70k #WhenWillBTCRebound
Price is still hugging the 0.786 fib circle, respecting it with precision, which tells us this level is acting as dynamic geometric support rather than just a static price zone.
What stands out is the timing. After February 18th, price will have fully crossed this 0.786 circle and enter a zone with no circular support beneath it.
Historically, when Bitcoin exits one of these fib circles, volatility expands and directional intent becomes much clearer, because the market is no longer being “guided” by geometric compression. It either accelerates or resolves sharply.
It’s also worth noting that the previous all-time high topped exactly at the pink fib circle not approximately, but structurally aligned once again.
This reinforces that these circular levels are not arbitrary drawings, but recurring areas where price exhausts or transitions.
The takeaway here isn’t to predict an exact outcome, but to recognize where we are in the structure.
Bitcoin is approaching a zone where support shifts from geometric to purely market-driven.
That transition phase is often uncomfortable, noisy, and emotionally charged but it’s also where larger moves are born.
As we move past mid-February, the question becomes simple: does price re-accelerate with strength, or does the absence of circular support expose weakness?
Either way, this is a level traders and investors should not be ignoring.
How are you positioning as $BTC approaches this geometric reset point?
#bitcoin #btc70k #WhenWillBTCRebound
Bitcoin Just Printed a Wyckoff Spring — And That Changes the Game
What $BTC just completed is not a matter of opinion or bias, it’s a matter of market structure.
A classic Wyckoff accumulation spring has already played out. Price dipped below support, stops were flushed, weak hands were forced out, and selling pressure failed to follow through.
That failure is the signal. The downside was tested and rejected.
In Wyckoff theory, the spring is not the end of the move, it is the confirmation that supply has been absorbed.
Once sellers exhaust themselves and price can no longer continue lower, the market transitions into the most important phase: the test.
If price holds during this phase, it confirms that demand is now in control and sets the stage for markup. This is precisely where Bitcoin is positioned now, with risk clearly defined and downside already proven false.
This is why Wyckoff springs are never topping signals. They are mechanisms used by the market to transfer supply from emotional participants to strong hands before expansion begins.
By the time consensus turns bullish, the opportunity is usually gone. The upside phase does not wait for agreement, it starts when doubt is highest and positioning is weakest.
If someone is still structurally bearish at this point, it’s not because they are cautious or early, it’s because they are ignoring what the market is objectively communicating.
Bitcoin doesn’t need narratives to move higher. It needs imbalance, absorbed supply, and time all of which are now in place.
The only real question left is not whether markup begins, but how many participants will still be waiting for confirmation after the trend has already started.
#wyckoff #BTC #btc70k
A classic Wyckoff accumulation spring has already played out. Price dipped below support, stops were flushed, weak hands were forced out, and selling pressure failed to follow through.
That failure is the signal. The downside was tested and rejected.
In Wyckoff theory, the spring is not the end of the move, it is the confirmation that supply has been absorbed.
Once sellers exhaust themselves and price can no longer continue lower, the market transitions into the most important phase: the test.
If price holds during this phase, it confirms that demand is now in control and sets the stage for markup. This is precisely where Bitcoin is positioned now, with risk clearly defined and downside already proven false.
This is why Wyckoff springs are never topping signals. They are mechanisms used by the market to transfer supply from emotional participants to strong hands before expansion begins.
By the time consensus turns bullish, the opportunity is usually gone. The upside phase does not wait for agreement, it starts when doubt is highest and positioning is weakest.
If someone is still structurally bearish at this point, it’s not because they are cautious or early, it’s because they are ignoring what the market is objectively communicating.
Bitcoin doesn’t need narratives to move higher. It needs imbalance, absorbed supply, and time all of which are now in place.
The only real question left is not whether markup begins, but how many participants will still be waiting for confirmation after the trend has already started.
#wyckoff #BTC #btc70k
$C98 Is Breaking Out And This Move Is About More Than Price
While much of the market is pausing to reset, $C98 just printed a decisive statement with a 43%+ move in the last 24 hours.
This isn’t a random green candle or short-term speculation it’s a reaction to real progress finally being priced in. Coin98 has quietly been building for years, and the pieces are now starting to connect in a way the market can’t ignore.
At the core of this momentum is utility and scale. The G98 joint venture with Tether positions Coin98 directly within Vietnam’s digital economy ambitions, targeting a meaningful share of national GDP by 2030 not as a narrative, but as infrastructure.
At the same time, real-world usage is no longer theoretical. The Fusion Card is live, allowing crypto spending at over 150 million Visa merchants globally, collapsing the gap between on-chain assets and everyday payments. On the technology side, Coin98 is evolving into a full-stack financial ecosystem, integrating AI-powered swaps and seamless multi-chain access across networks like 0x and Sui, signaling a shift from wallet-first to platform-level ambition.
From a market structure perspective, this breakout matters even more when paired with supply dynamics. Circulating supply is close to fully unlocked, meaning future demand isn’t being capped by emissions.
Scarcity starts to matter when fundamentals and liquidity align, and that’s exactly the condition forming now. If this momentum holds, what we’re seeing may not be a local pump, but the early stage of a broader repricing cycle.
The real question isn’t whether $C98 can move higher short term it’s whether this is the beginning of a longer revaluation as utility, adoption, and narrative finally converge.
Is this just the first wave of attention, or the opening chapter of a much larger cycle for $C98 ?
#c98 #PreciousMetalsTurbulence #MarketCorrection
This isn’t a random green candle or short-term speculation it’s a reaction to real progress finally being priced in. Coin98 has quietly been building for years, and the pieces are now starting to connect in a way the market can’t ignore.
At the core of this momentum is utility and scale. The G98 joint venture with Tether positions Coin98 directly within Vietnam’s digital economy ambitions, targeting a meaningful share of national GDP by 2030 not as a narrative, but as infrastructure.
At the same time, real-world usage is no longer theoretical. The Fusion Card is live, allowing crypto spending at over 150 million Visa merchants globally, collapsing the gap between on-chain assets and everyday payments. On the technology side, Coin98 is evolving into a full-stack financial ecosystem, integrating AI-powered swaps and seamless multi-chain access across networks like 0x and Sui, signaling a shift from wallet-first to platform-level ambition.
From a market structure perspective, this breakout matters even more when paired with supply dynamics. Circulating supply is close to fully unlocked, meaning future demand isn’t being capped by emissions.
Scarcity starts to matter when fundamentals and liquidity align, and that’s exactly the condition forming now. If this momentum holds, what we’re seeing may not be a local pump, but the early stage of a broader repricing cycle.
The real question isn’t whether $C98 can move higher short term it’s whether this is the beginning of a longer revaluation as utility, adoption, and narrative finally converge.
Is this just the first wave of attention, or the opening chapter of a much larger cycle for $C98 ?
#c98 #PreciousMetalsTurbulence #MarketCorrection
$ZEN Testing a Critical Inflection Zone — Descending Triangle Bounce in Play
$ZEN is currently pressing against the lower boundary of a descending triangle on the 2-week timeframe, a zone that often decides whether a market breaks down or stages a meaningful reversal.
Price has stopped accelerating to the downside and is beginning to stabilize at this structural support, suggesting selling pressure is being absorbed and conviction is quietly building.
When descending triangles fail to resolve lower after prolonged compression, they frequently transition into powerful trend reversals as positioning flips.
If this level continues to hold, the recovery roadmap becomes increasingly clear. The first objective sits near $9, followed by higher resistance zones at $19 and $32, where momentum confirmation would be critical.
A sustained breakout above that range opens the door to broader re-expansion toward $50, with extension targets at $85 and even $135 if the market enters a full risk-on phase.
Momentum is starting to shift in favor of the bulls, but confirmation will come from structure, not anticipation.
This is not about chasing strength, but about recognizing asymmetry when risk is clearly defined and sentiment is still muted.
Is $ZEN setting up for a larger trend reversal, or is this just another pause before continuation?
#zen #PrivacyCoin #MarketAnalysis
Price has stopped accelerating to the downside and is beginning to stabilize at this structural support, suggesting selling pressure is being absorbed and conviction is quietly building.
When descending triangles fail to resolve lower after prolonged compression, they frequently transition into powerful trend reversals as positioning flips.
If this level continues to hold, the recovery roadmap becomes increasingly clear. The first objective sits near $9, followed by higher resistance zones at $19 and $32, where momentum confirmation would be critical.
A sustained breakout above that range opens the door to broader re-expansion toward $50, with extension targets at $85 and even $135 if the market enters a full risk-on phase.
Momentum is starting to shift in favor of the bulls, but confirmation will come from structure, not anticipation.
This is not about chasing strength, but about recognizing asymmetry when risk is clearly defined and sentiment is still muted.
Is $ZEN setting up for a larger trend reversal, or is this just another pause before continuation?
#zen #PrivacyCoin #MarketAnalysis
$LTC at the Same Crossroads $XRP Faced Before Its Breakout
When you overlay $LTC current structure with $XRP historical price action, the similarity is hard to ignore.
XRP spent an extended period compressing, drifting dangerously close to invalidation, with sentiment largely written off and participation thinning out. That phase looked uninspiring, even bearish right up until it wasn’t.
What followed was a sharp structural reversal and a move of more than 500%, catching the majority of the market completely off guard.
Litecoin is now sitting in a remarkably similar position. Price has been grinding, momentum has been suppressed, and confidence is low classic late-cycle compression behavior. This is typically the stage where weak hands exit and conviction is tested, not where trends become obvious.
While past price action never guarantees future outcomes, markets have a habit of rhyming, especially when assets belong to the same category. “Dino coins” like LTC and XRP share similar liquidity profiles, investor bases, and rotational behavior when capital begins hunting for laggards.
The key takeaway isn’t that Litecoin must repeat XRP’s move, but that proximity to invalidation is often where asymmetry is born.
When downside risk is well-defined and expectations are washed out, even a modest shift in narrative or liquidity can trigger outsized reactions. That’s how rotations start quietly, uncomfortably, and against consensus.
The question isn’t whether LTC looks exciting today. It’s whether this is the kind of setup markets historically reward once attention shifts back to neglected majors.
Do you see LTC as dead money, or as a late-cycle rotation candidate like $XRP before its breakout?
#LTC #xrp #MarketCorrection
XRP spent an extended period compressing, drifting dangerously close to invalidation, with sentiment largely written off and participation thinning out. That phase looked uninspiring, even bearish right up until it wasn’t.
What followed was a sharp structural reversal and a move of more than 500%, catching the majority of the market completely off guard.
Litecoin is now sitting in a remarkably similar position. Price has been grinding, momentum has been suppressed, and confidence is low classic late-cycle compression behavior. This is typically the stage where weak hands exit and conviction is tested, not where trends become obvious.
While past price action never guarantees future outcomes, markets have a habit of rhyming, especially when assets belong to the same category. “Dino coins” like LTC and XRP share similar liquidity profiles, investor bases, and rotational behavior when capital begins hunting for laggards.
The key takeaway isn’t that Litecoin must repeat XRP’s move, but that proximity to invalidation is often where asymmetry is born.
When downside risk is well-defined and expectations are washed out, even a modest shift in narrative or liquidity can trigger outsized reactions. That’s how rotations start quietly, uncomfortably, and against consensus.
The question isn’t whether LTC looks exciting today. It’s whether this is the kind of setup markets historically reward once attention shifts back to neglected majors.
Do you see LTC as dead money, or as a late-cycle rotation candidate like $XRP before its breakout?
#LTC #xrp #MarketCorrection
$BTC Near the Point of Maximum Pain
The recent price action has forced an important reassessment. Once $BTC lost the key range levels, the market also lost its ability to move impulsively to the upside.
That invalidated the running flat scenario and instead confirmed a clean ABC corrective structure.
From there, price pushed into new lows, drifting dangerously close to the higher-timeframe structure break around $74k a level that historically represents the worst-case pain point markets tend to inflict before reversing.
This is not random. Markets don’t usually turn when sentiment is balanced; they turn when positioning and psychology are stretched to extremes.
Right now, several pieces are aligning. We have new macro data shifting, metals showing signs of topping behavior, and the ISM breaking out a combination that has previously marked transitions rather than continuations of downside.
Against this backdrop, my base case is that this mini bear phase exhausts itself in February through an expanded flat, ideally as close as possible to invalidation.
If that scenario plays out, the psychology will be textbook. Bearish narratives will be louder than at any point this cycle.
Shorts will aggressively pile in below $74k, fully convinced the market is broken and the cycle is over. Ironically, that conviction becomes the fuel.
With liquidity heavily stacked above and short positioning crowded at the lows, the conditions for a sharp reversal are created not despite the fear, but because of it. A reclaim and close back above $74k by the end of February would fit perfectly within that framework.
I don’t need universal agreement on this view, and I’m fully aware markets can invalidate any thesis. But based on structure, macro context, and positioning dynamics, my conviction remains that this is not a true bear market.
I believe $BTC will make new highs this year, and my positioning reflects that belief.
This is the game we’re all playing. The market doesn’t reward certainty it rewards understanding risk, structure, and psychology.
Do you see this as distribution before a deeper collapse, or accumulation before re-expansion for $BTC ?
#BTC #btc70k #WhenWillBTCRebound
That invalidated the running flat scenario and instead confirmed a clean ABC corrective structure.
From there, price pushed into new lows, drifting dangerously close to the higher-timeframe structure break around $74k a level that historically represents the worst-case pain point markets tend to inflict before reversing.
This is not random. Markets don’t usually turn when sentiment is balanced; they turn when positioning and psychology are stretched to extremes.
Right now, several pieces are aligning. We have new macro data shifting, metals showing signs of topping behavior, and the ISM breaking out a combination that has previously marked transitions rather than continuations of downside.
Against this backdrop, my base case is that this mini bear phase exhausts itself in February through an expanded flat, ideally as close as possible to invalidation.
If that scenario plays out, the psychology will be textbook. Bearish narratives will be louder than at any point this cycle.
Shorts will aggressively pile in below $74k, fully convinced the market is broken and the cycle is over. Ironically, that conviction becomes the fuel.
With liquidity heavily stacked above and short positioning crowded at the lows, the conditions for a sharp reversal are created not despite the fear, but because of it. A reclaim and close back above $74k by the end of February would fit perfectly within that framework.
I don’t need universal agreement on this view, and I’m fully aware markets can invalidate any thesis. But based on structure, macro context, and positioning dynamics, my conviction remains that this is not a true bear market.
I believe $BTC will make new highs this year, and my positioning reflects that belief.
This is the game we’re all playing. The market doesn’t reward certainty it rewards understanding risk, structure, and psychology.
Do you see this as distribution before a deeper collapse, or accumulation before re-expansion for $BTC ?
#BTC #btc70k #WhenWillBTCRebound
THIS IS THE BIGGEST BULL RUN SIGNAL WE'VE GOTTEN IN YEARS
The ISM PMI went from contraction → expansion today.
Every single Bitcoin bull run has started when the ISM PMI moved from below 50 to above 50.
Markets are pricing in growth, not contraction, and that is huge for risk assets.
Recession fears are gone after a single data print.
The entire macro environment has just shifted.
Do not miss this.
#BullRunAhead #StrategyBTCPurchase #MarketCorrection
The ISM PMI went from contraction → expansion today.
Every single Bitcoin bull run has started when the ISM PMI moved from below 50 to above 50.
Markets are pricing in growth, not contraction, and that is huge for risk assets.
Recession fears are gone after a single data print.
The entire macro environment has just shifted.
Do not miss this.
#BullRunAhead #StrategyBTCPurchase #MarketCorrection
$BTC Outlook: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Expansion
Bitcoin is approaching a decisive inflection point where volatility is not a risk, but a signal.
In the near term, price action suggests a technical relief bounce toward the $83k area as liquidity above current levels is tested.
This move, however, should be viewed as a structural reaction rather than confirmation of a sustained uptrend.
Following that bounce, the market is likely to enter a controlled corrective phase, gradually rotating price into the $65k–$55k range.
This zone represents a high-probability area for leverage reset, emotional capitulation, and strategic accumulation.
Historically, these conditions are required before any meaningful expansion phase can begin.
The key phase to watch is the consolidation that follows likely around two weeks where volatility compresses and market control quietly shifts back to stronger hands. Once accumulation is complete, Bitcoin can transition into its next growth leg with renewed momentum and healthier structure.
If this cycle continues to rhyme with prior market behavior, a move toward $140k per $BTC becomes a realistic upside target rather than speculation.
Short-term drawdowns test patience, not conviction. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and let the market do the heavy lifting.
Bookmark this and revisit it in August clarity always comes after volatility.
#BTC #StrategyBTCPurchase #BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund
In the near term, price action suggests a technical relief bounce toward the $83k area as liquidity above current levels is tested.
This move, however, should be viewed as a structural reaction rather than confirmation of a sustained uptrend.
Following that bounce, the market is likely to enter a controlled corrective phase, gradually rotating price into the $65k–$55k range.
This zone represents a high-probability area for leverage reset, emotional capitulation, and strategic accumulation.
Historically, these conditions are required before any meaningful expansion phase can begin.
The key phase to watch is the consolidation that follows likely around two weeks where volatility compresses and market control quietly shifts back to stronger hands. Once accumulation is complete, Bitcoin can transition into its next growth leg with renewed momentum and healthier structure.
If this cycle continues to rhyme with prior market behavior, a move toward $140k per $BTC becomes a realistic upside target rather than speculation.
Short-term drawdowns test patience, not conviction. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and let the market do the heavy lifting.
Bookmark this and revisit it in August clarity always comes after volatility.
#BTC #StrategyBTCPurchase #BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund
Top Cryptos vs Their All-Time Highs: A Reality Check on Positioning
One of the simplest ways to understand where we are in the market cycle is to look at how far major assets still sit from their all-time highs.
Bitcoin remains roughly 37% below its peak, while Ethereum and stETH are down around 52%, signaling that large-cap smart contract exposure has not yet fully repriced.
BNB sits 43% off its ATH, reflecting both ecosystem strength and regulatory overhang, while XRP and SOL remain deeply discounted at 55% and 64% respectively, highlighting how selectively capital has flowed this cycle.
TRX stands out with a relatively shallow 34% drawdown, suggesting defensive positioning, whereas DOGE at 85% below ATH is a clear reminder of how speculative excess gets repriced hardest outside of peak euphoria.
This snapshot doesn’t tell us what will outperform next week, but it clearly shows the broader picture: despite strong narratives and rising participation, the market as a whole is still far from full expansion mode.
Historically, this type of dispersion appears during transition phases, not at cycle tops. The key is not chasing what already moved, but understanding where asymmetric upside may emerge as liquidity conditions improve.
#MarketAnalysis #CryptoAnalysis #MarketCorrection $BTC $ETH $BNB
Bitcoin remains roughly 37% below its peak, while Ethereum and stETH are down around 52%, signaling that large-cap smart contract exposure has not yet fully repriced.
BNB sits 43% off its ATH, reflecting both ecosystem strength and regulatory overhang, while XRP and SOL remain deeply discounted at 55% and 64% respectively, highlighting how selectively capital has flowed this cycle.
TRX stands out with a relatively shallow 34% drawdown, suggesting defensive positioning, whereas DOGE at 85% below ATH is a clear reminder of how speculative excess gets repriced hardest outside of peak euphoria.
This snapshot doesn’t tell us what will outperform next week, but it clearly shows the broader picture: despite strong narratives and rising participation, the market as a whole is still far from full expansion mode.
Historically, this type of dispersion appears during transition phases, not at cycle tops. The key is not chasing what already moved, but understanding where asymmetric upside may emerge as liquidity conditions improve.
#MarketAnalysis #CryptoAnalysis #MarketCorrection $BTC $ETH $BNB
The Business Cycle: The True Driver Behind Crypto’s Parabolic Phases
Crypto market expansions are not random events. They are a direct consequence of the business cycle and the liquidity conditions that define it.
Every major parabolic phase in crypto has emerged during periods of monetary transition not during economic strength, but at the point where policy begins to shift from restriction to accommodation.
Quantitative tightening has effectively reached its end. Rate cuts are now being priced into the market, and historically, this sequence is followed by a return to easing conditions. These moments mark structural turning points, not short-term trades.
Bitcoin has recently interacted with what can be described as the natural low of the business cycle a phase characterized by compressed liquidity, risk aversion, and widespread capitulation. While sentiment at these levels is typically pessimistic, history shows they have consistently preceded the most aggressive expansion phases across crypto markets.
Previous cycle resets tell a clear story. During the 2012–13 cycle,
Bitcoin advanced over 5,000%, followed by altcoin expansions of 10–50x.
The 2016–17 cycle produced Bitcoin gains exceeding 6,500%, with select altcoins delivering 20–100x returns.
Even in the more mature 2020–21 cycle, Bitcoin still appreciated over 1,700%, while altcoins achieved 10–40x moves. The magnitude changes, but the structure remains consistent.
The business cycle does not end it resets. These resets occur precisely when conviction is weakest and participation thins out, just before liquidity conditions begin to improve and risk assets reprice accordingly. This is not an argument for complacency or blind optimism, but a reminder that macro-driven expansions are built during periods of doubt, not euphoria.
Positioning during these phases is less about prediction and more about discipline. Understanding where we are in the cycle matters far more than reacting to short-term volatility.
#CYCLE #business #MarketCorrection $BTC
Every major parabolic phase in crypto has emerged during periods of monetary transition not during economic strength, but at the point where policy begins to shift from restriction to accommodation.
Quantitative tightening has effectively reached its end. Rate cuts are now being priced into the market, and historically, this sequence is followed by a return to easing conditions. These moments mark structural turning points, not short-term trades.
Bitcoin has recently interacted with what can be described as the natural low of the business cycle a phase characterized by compressed liquidity, risk aversion, and widespread capitulation. While sentiment at these levels is typically pessimistic, history shows they have consistently preceded the most aggressive expansion phases across crypto markets.
Previous cycle resets tell a clear story. During the 2012–13 cycle,
Bitcoin advanced over 5,000%, followed by altcoin expansions of 10–50x.
The 2016–17 cycle produced Bitcoin gains exceeding 6,500%, with select altcoins delivering 20–100x returns.
Even in the more mature 2020–21 cycle, Bitcoin still appreciated over 1,700%, while altcoins achieved 10–40x moves. The magnitude changes, but the structure remains consistent.
The business cycle does not end it resets. These resets occur precisely when conviction is weakest and participation thins out, just before liquidity conditions begin to improve and risk assets reprice accordingly. This is not an argument for complacency or blind optimism, but a reminder that macro-driven expansions are built during periods of doubt, not euphoria.
Positioning during these phases is less about prediction and more about discipline. Understanding where we are in the cycle matters far more than reacting to short-term volatility.
#CYCLE #business #MarketCorrection $BTC
THE DOLLAR INDEX IS COLLAPSING RIGHT NOW
Support that held since 2022 has been traded through.
We've now re-tested it as resistance and it's currently holding.
The MACD has crossed and the last 2 times this happened, the DXY crashed completely.
The dollar will get even weaker with the rate cuts.
Risk assets are about to go much higher.
Don't miss this.
#MACD #MarketAnalysis #CryptoAnalysis
Support that held since 2022 has been traded through.
We've now re-tested it as resistance and it's currently holding.
The MACD has crossed and the last 2 times this happened, the DXY crashed completely.
The dollar will get even weaker with the rate cuts.
Risk assets are about to go much higher.
Don't miss this.
#MACD #MarketAnalysis #CryptoAnalysis
Please don’t FOMO. But here’s my honest positioning on Gold
I genuinely like Gold below $4,500.
If volatility opens the door to sub-$4,000 even $3,700 I’m happy to add more.
That said, I’m not holding my breath waiting for those prices.
This is not a momentum play.
This is a long-term wealth HODL position.
Gold isn’t trading like a short-term asset anymore. It’s acting the way it always does when regimes shift: capital looking for durability in a world of monetary uncertainty, rising structural debt, and fragile confidence in policy stability.
Could we see sub-$4k?
Yes markets always allow for overshoots.
Is it likely?
Only if macro liquidity or policy expectations materially reverse.
That’s why the focus here isn’t precision entries or catching the perfect dip. It’s owning an asset with asymmetric protection over time, staying patient, and refusing to let excitement replace conviction.
Patience over perfection.
Positioning over prediction.
Are you treating Gold as a trade or as insurance for the next regime shift
#GOLD #Macro #XAU $XAU
Click and Trade 👇
If volatility opens the door to sub-$4,000 even $3,700 I’m happy to add more.
That said, I’m not holding my breath waiting for those prices.
This is not a momentum play.
This is a long-term wealth HODL position.
Gold isn’t trading like a short-term asset anymore. It’s acting the way it always does when regimes shift: capital looking for durability in a world of monetary uncertainty, rising structural debt, and fragile confidence in policy stability.
Could we see sub-$4k?
Yes markets always allow for overshoots.
Is it likely?
Only if macro liquidity or policy expectations materially reverse.
That’s why the focus here isn’t precision entries or catching the perfect dip. It’s owning an asset with asymmetric protection over time, staying patient, and refusing to let excitement replace conviction.
Patience over perfection.
Positioning over prediction.
Are you treating Gold as a trade or as insurance for the next regime shift
#GOLD #Macro #XAU $XAU
Click and Trade 👇
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