诸葛投研

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The simplified Chinese version can trade bstock too. There’s now another place where money can flow out. This bear market is probably getting closer to the bottom 😂😂

Only after looking at this chart did I realize how short last year’s bull market was—there wasn’t even a trace left on the quarterly earnings statement…

And also, $BTC has been falling for 3 consecutive quarters

Boss Yi has already called for a dip buy—are the just-broken price action of $BTC below 59k meant to be what Boss Yi bought?

$币安人生 people’s hype has faded; everyone isn’t paying as much attention as before. Naturally, it will drop.

That’s how meme coins are. There’s no such thing as buying the dip after the hype cools off. They’re traded purely based on hype—when the hype is lower, it drops more, until the next time a hot trend breaks out and it’s related to that trend.

It’s different from projects with real use cases and real revenue. For a valuable project, when the hype fades, that’s a good opportunity to buy the dip, because its core fundamentals are still there. That’s also why I mainly trade value coins.

In these past 2 days, the big pancake ($BTC ) has broken below 60k twice already. This obvious psychological price level is clearly not something that can hold. I’ve compiled detailed data on the bear market to try to figure out where the bottom of this bear cycle might be.

My own thoughts I’ll save for tomorrow. Everyone is welcome to look at the data in the images and share your own ideas.

$SOL Why is it so hard? Is Xmoney really going to move?

The threshold for CAP is out—225 points, TGE. I guess I don’t have a chance anymore. To my brothers who still have points, keep up the fight!

Last night’s show with $NES was quite a spectacle:
1. At first, I was pumped to see the price jump right at the open, thinking this no-name project was really going to perform. But then I noticed some addresses dumping large amounts. I was thinking: with so many tokens, it must be the project team;

2. However, the sell-off wasn’t massive, just a few hundred K in USD. Plus, the big buy orders from the snipers weren’t selling, so the price didn’t crash hard;

3. At this point, I was a bit confused: why was the project team only dumping such a small amount? Now on Alpha and even on the neighboring spot market, making such a big deal just to harvest a few hundred K in retail? And the neighboring spot trading is pegged to USD, which indicates they’re still holding back. Also, why aren’t the snipers selling? What’s their angle?

4. So, I was just speculating: felt like a left hand dumping into the right hand, wash trading to create liquidity. Later, it turned out the sniper addresses were quietly offloading to scattered addresses (the 2f55 sniper transferred funds to 837e, then to 0e07, then to 34b4 to dump)……

Monitoring on-chain activity is really tough these days, feels like I’m in some spy game here?

Verified 3 times, and finally got my hands on it just before the end. This project is a no-name, but it's got some potential since it can hit the neighboring spot market. Feels like there's some energy here, so let's hold on and see what NES brings.

Brothers, today’s NES might just be a big whale!

1. Right now, the pre-market price for NES is 0.4u/token (pretty reasonable, equals yesterday's booster reward of 8u), and the share for Alpha is 1%, which means a reward of 4 million u. Even if we split it into 50,000 shares, that's still a single allocation of 80u.

2. Recent airdrops have been quite generous, with the TGE plus 2 low-threshold airdrops, the main squad might have been hit with a 45-point deduction. Now, there’s another potential big whale with 50,000 shares, shouldn’t that threshold be lowered? (The official threshold and individual share allocations haven't been announced yet, so let's wait for the announcement.)

3. The day after tomorrow, on the 26th, a pretty well-known project, CAP, is set to launch. This project should also meet Alpha's listing requirements, just depends if the project team is willing to provide the chips. If they are willing, there might be an airdrop on the 26th, making it three for this week.

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There are still 10,000 slots left for the NES booster event. Should we go for it?

My take: If you're scoring between 210 and 227, I'd suggest sitting this one out. Others can definitely participate.

(1) The airdrop tomorrow night at 8 PM is likely to be NES as well. With a total supply of 1 billion tokens, if we estimate 1% is allocated to Alpha+booster, that’s about 10 million tokens (I've seen some saying Alpha is distributing 6.5 million NES).

(2) If we assume today’s 20 NES booster reward is valued around 6u, that puts the unit price at 0.3. This means the remaining 0.9% of Alpha is valued at 2.7 million (based on the 6.5 million NES figure, that's about 2 million). Using the 6.5 million figure, each person can grab 40u, which breaks down to 50,000 shares. Definitely a low barrier to entry.

(3) Conclusion: If you’re scoring between 210 and 227, I’d suggest sitting this one out. If NES doesn’t hit that 0.3 price point, then the booster reward won’t reach 6u, and the cost per Alpha share could climb to 4u, so skipping it wouldn’t be a loss. But if NES hits that price, then we’re looking at 50,000 shares again, and the entry point will likely drop, so it might be better to hold onto your points for a shot at the airdrop.

Tomorrow night at 8 PM, there might be a new coin drop. Bros, are we bullish or bearish?

The crypto space is truly a wild ride. You can grind away analyzing for hours, but sometimes it's better to just dive in and make those moves. Take $ARX for example:

1. Yesterday, I spent time studying sell pressure, convinced it was going to tank. But it couldn't withstand the project team holding back public withdrawals, nor the calls from KOLs and influencers, which led to a pump before the drop;

2. Then there were public share allocations, community airdrops, and the project team dumping, after watching on-chain activity for so long, I thought ARX was done for; turns out it couldn't resist the latest listing on a Korean exchange.

Honestly, I should've just thought about the glorious history of O and QAIT, jumped in mindlessly at launch, and then if I got stuck, just added to my position to average down. Now, after a nice pump, I could be sitting on some sweet profits.

Let’s talk about last night’s $ARX :

1. The sell pressure matched expectations, but I didn’t expect the buying power to be so strong. It wasn’t just the active players from Alpha; even those who have never bought O or QAIT got in on the action, and even some newcomers from the chain jumped in too. This was the main reason it managed to pump before the sell pressure kicked in.

2. The reason sell pressure didn’t show up right away was that the public offerings had cashed out, which meant initially, everyone couldn't access their coins. Once the sell pressure was released, it just kept dropping. Even the official team was dumping, which led to the continuous downtrend.

3. I personally sold at 0.36 when the market opened, didn’t even hold on to the 30 ARX from the booster. In my post yesterday, I was sharing my trading strategy and the specific reasons behind it. Let me reiterate, I’m just sharing my trades and thoughts, not teaching newbies how to trade crypto. I hope those reading my posts can think for themselves and make their own judgments.

4. Why don’t I teach newbies how to trade? Because yesterday ARX pumped to 0.43, and some folks came at me with complaints; when it dropped to 0.25 last night, they vanished. Last time, I said not to touch it at $SPCX 190 because it could only pump temporarily, but after July 2, no one was picking it up, and when it briefly spiked to 220, I got blamed for telling them not to touch it; today when it dropped to 150, I got blamed again for saying that the temporary pump trapped them.

5. What should those who are holding $ARX do? Just now, ARX dropped news about listing on the Korean exchange UP, which was better than expected, so it shot back up to 0.42. If it were me, I’d sell now.

Bought a bit of $DOGE , as a lottery bag:

(1) Undoubtedly the leader of meme coins. Moreover, in the industry, DOGE has been recognized as a digital asset, and the spot ETF has been accumulating, so it definitely won't go to zero like most meme coins.

(2) Elon hasn't given up on Doge, as he's launching the DOGE satellite this year and sending DOGE to Mars next year. So, the possibility of it becoming a web2 payment/tipping coin via Xmoney is still alive. At least, some of Tesla's parts are now supporting DOGE payments.

(3) The price has dropped to this point, which is close to miners' costs, and it's also a very dreary period for altcoins. Looking at the candlestick, it seems to be forming a bottom with some fluctuations.

Of course, risks still exist. After all, even though it's the leader of meme coins, it ultimately is still a meme coin. So, just treating it like a lottery bag for fun.

The World Cup event is super generous with rewards, huh?

Is it because the competition next door is heating up, putting some pressure on us?

Lately, the airdrops from Alpha have been skyrocketing, $QAIT $O $RE each one a big whale, making me think about switching to a consistent strategy. I even have a self-justifying reason ready: new coins launching during a bear market must be planning something big.

But for today’s $ARX, after some back-and-forth, I’ve decided to play it safe and bail: the selling pressure is pretty significant.

1. Looking at the community DC group, tons of people are flexing their airdrops in the thousands and tens of thousands of tokens, and it’s all unlocked (can’t rule out that some might be project shills—need more info to verify); if the community isn’t pushing back and the supply isn’t tightly controlled, it probably isn’t a pump scenario.

2. This token previously had a public sale at $0.2, selling 2%, and it was fully unlocked;

3. The project has previously reached out to some KOLs for promotion, paying them in tokens too. This indicates that the project is either strapped for cash or doesn’t value their chips.

I might miss out on gains, but I’ve decided to take the small win and play it safe.

New announcement dropped, air drop tomorrow. The entry threshold is unknown, but it's probably pretty low.

It's Dragon Boat Festival today, so there definitely won't be any airdrops.

We've only seen 2 airdrops in the last 2 weeks, and Alpha has officially entered the era of just 2 airdrops per week $O $RE