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Will the revision of the non-farm payroll data lead to a market crash?

Will the revision of the non-farm payroll data lead to a market crash?

Market analysis
1. Will the market crash due to interest rate cuts?
Andrew Tyler, head of JPMorgan's trading desk, suggested that after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the market might experience a 'sell the news' situation. This means that the market has already priced in the expectations of an interest rate cut, and once the expectation is realized, some investors might choose to take profits rather than chase higher prices.
He is mainly concerned about the following points:
Inflation uncertainty remains: Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the rising costs brought about by tariff policies may continue to be passed on to consumers. The core CPI in the U.S. rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, and inflationary pressures have not completely dissipated.

Bearish

Who's more attractive, her or former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck? #BTC跌破$77K $BTC

Powell's final dance, hike or cut rates? #币安推出黄金vsBTC未来资产对决活动 $ETH

Bearish

Countdown to the Fed Chair Transition: Walsh Set to Take Over on Time, Will Powell Stay on as Governor?丨Hey, what’s the outlook today?

The Fed is entering its most significant power transition in nearly a decade: Walsh is likely to step in on schedule, but will Powell remain as a governor? What changes will occur in the Fed's board structure? #BitMine增加以太坊质押 $ETH

Bearish

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#BitMine增加以太坊质押 $ETH 据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Woominkyu，4 月 27 日，比特币 CEX 净流入激增至 9905 枚 BTC，创下过去 30 天最大单日净流入纪录，这也导致比特币价格始终未能有效突破阻力位。

Woominkyu 表示，最令人担忧的信号是 CEX 巨鲸比率（Exchange Whale Ratio），该指标在 4 月 27 日飙升至 0.707，为一周多以来的最高读数。这意味着前 10 大流入交易占所有充值量的 70% 以上——明确表明大户正在积极将代币转移至 CEX，很可能在为派发做准备。

Woominkyu 认为，巨鲸主导的流入激增与 CEX 储备上升的组合表明，聪明资金正准备逢高抛售。除非这部分流入被迅速消化，否则短期内重新测试 74,000 至 75,000 美元支撑区的可能性正在显著上升。

Bearish

#Strategy增持比特币 $ETH 4 On the 29th, analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin's spot trading volume has been in a nosedive since April, dropping back to levels seen in September 2023 (when the last bear market ended). Since March, major CEXs have seen a sharp decline in Bitcoin spot trading volume, with Binance seeing a reduction of about $25 billion.

Darkfost believes that macroeconomic pressures, including the uncertain developments in the Iran conflict and ongoing inflation worries, have left investors lacking confidence in long-term spot holdings.

Bearish

The Fed is set to drop their rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday, followed by a presser from Powell half an hour later. The market is generally betting on a hold for the third consecutive time. Powell's term wraps up on May 15, and his statements post-meeting will be seen as a crucial indicator for his future. He hasn't ruled out the possibility of sticking around as a board member, which would last until January 2028. Meanwhile, Trump's nominee, Walsh, has garnered key senator support, with a Senate vote on his nomination scheduled for Wednesday. #Strategy增持比特币 $ETH