btc

🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.

Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.

🔺 Stagflation risk

Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.

The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.

Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.

A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.

$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin

Everyone keeps saying "this time is different," but the response from $BTC usually ends up being déjà vu.

The chart for the next 12 months might still look straightforward:

Q1 2026: Initial dip

Q2 2026: Bull trap bounce, target price $82,000

Q3 2026: Final sell-off risk, target price $54,000

Q4 2026: Rebound

Q1 2027: Hit new highs

Two quarters of decline, and we're still two quarters away from the real bull run starting.

The data still supports a cautious stance; Bitcoin recently broke below $60,000, hitting a new low since October 2024, then bounced back above $64,000. The spot Bitcoin ETF also faced significant outflows, with reports showing over $4 billion leaving the ETP during 13 consecutive days of outflows.

But this isn't a typical clean bottom; a real bottom often requires forced selling, ETF fund outflows, leverage getting cleared, bad news, and price refusing to make new lows.

We have some of the elements, but not all. Before the next upswing, the market might need one painful washout.

Maybe the bottom is $54,000, or maybe it will rise ahead of time.

But the lesson remains the same: every cycle, people are willing to pay a premium, believing history won’t repeat itself.

Then Bitcoin reminds them that the humor in the charts is quite dull.

However, for long-term holders, buying around $60,000 is a really solid price for accumulating in batches. #BTC #币圈巴菲特

#BTC
Bitcoin isn't just tanking; the whole market's getting a washout.

Everyone's on the hunt for a single scapegoat: ETF outflows, Saylor's sell-off, Iran, interest rates, inflation, AI sucking up liquidity.

The real deal is way simpler.

Liquidity has shifted. The strongest source of demand (ETFs) is slowing down, and billions are flowing out. Saylor's sell-off is a drop in the bucket. If that shakes your confidence, then the market was already weak.

On the flip side, cash is flowing into AI and big tech. Bitcoin is no longer the only growth trade on the block.

The economy is too strong to allow for aggressive rate cuts. Geopolitical risks and high oil prices are ramping up inflation worries.

None of this is a death blow for Bitcoin. But the easy days are over.

This isn't just a typical dip where you load up. This is a test of reliability.

Patience is key 👏🏻
$BTC

$BTC has received key signals in China again.

Not fiat currency.

But legally protected.

107 BTC theft case.

This time, the attributes are clarified.

Reports indicate that China has once again confirmed that BTC belongs to legally protected property in a case involving the theft of 107 Bitcoins. This is crucial because many have previously stated that Bitcoin cannot be used for payments or circulated in China, so it lacked legal status. However, the signal released this time is crystal clear: Bitcoin is not China's legal tender, but it can be recognized as property.

As long as it's property, if stolen, occupied, or illegally transferred, it can fall under criminal legal protection. So this isn't just a simple "bullish call," but rather a reaffirmation of BTC's asset attributes from a legal standpoint. For the market, the key point isn't that China suddenly opens up trading, but rather a more fundamental logic: just because it can't be used as money doesn't mean it has no value; just because it can't be traded publicly doesn't mean it's unprotected.

Bitcoin has come this far, and its strongest aspect has been this: first ignored, then ridiculed, then blocked, and finally recognized as a true asset. 🚀$ETH $BNB #Strategy增持1550枚BTC现金储备达10亿美元

#Bitcoin #BTC

Friends who held short from 80k during this bear market, like the one at $BTC , are undoubtedly the cream of the crop. Whether it's trend control or the determination to hold onto profits, it’s tough to pull off without some deep experience in the crypto space. Most who misread the trends have already exited the market.

Currently, we’re in the latter half of the bear market, and I estimate that Bitcoin's bottom will be between 48k and 53k. If things move quickly, we could see the end of the bear market by this October; if not, then maybe by January '27.
Many mainstream altcoins have already dropped to the position between late '23 bear and early bull. I believe that survivors of this bear market, if they play their cards right, will see returns in the tens of times during the next bull run – this won't be too hard. #BTC #ETH

The wildest part of a bull market.

It's not about how high it goes.

It's about how quickly it flips.

One moment, everyone is shouting that Crypto is dead.

The next moment, it starts chasing ATH.

Every bull run is like this; the market won't slowly tell you, "I'm about to reverse." It usually flips at the most desperate times, when no one wants to buy, and everyone thinks the trend is over, suddenly reversing.

The cruelest part is that there’s almost no comfortable transition period in between.

It won’t give you much time to confirm slowly.

It won’t wait for your emotions to recover.

It won’t wait for you to understand the narrative.

It goes straight from "no one believes" to "the whole market is FOMO-ing in."

Once the new highs are established, everyone will start explaining why it was supposed to go up all along. But the real opportunity often lies when everyone is still doubting, still scared, and still waiting for lower prices.

Crypto is best at flipping consensus on its head.

When everyone thinks it's dead,

it might actually be closer to the next ATH than you think.

This flip,

could be just around the corner. 🚀$BTC $ETH $XRP #btc

Is 6w the bottom?
This drop has basically been shorted, placed the order.
Forgot to speak in the square, just wanted to talk about the upcoming market.
On a larger scale, it’s not certain we’ve hit the bottom here; we might continue to consolidate, but the amplitude could be larger than before. Timing feels like around October could be close to the bottom. Before that, another wave of decline isn’t out of the question. If MicroStrategy can desensitize with BTC, that would be ideal. Hopefully, there will be another wave of market activity.
#BTC走势分析 #btc #ETH

#cpiwatch
Bank of America just threw a bucket of ice water (but heated with hot oil) in the faces of us traders: CPI forecast for May is skyrocketing to 4.2% — the highest peak in three years! 📈
The culprit is none other than ENERGY PRICES. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, crude oil keeps steadily exceeding $90/barrel, causing our gas costs to soar. Now:
- Motorbikes: Gas guzzlers 🛵
- Cars: Crying hard 🚗
- Crypto Portfolio: Gasping for oxygen 📉
But hold up, don’t rush to close the app and hit the hay! Check out the Core CPI (Core inflation - which excludes food and energy costs). BofA predicts it will only rise by 0.2%, significantly down from last month.
To break it down for you:
- Headline CPI (4.2%): This is the amount you see on your monthly electricity and gas bills. Wallet on fire! 😭
- Core CPI (0.2%): This is the actual cash left for... stacking more DCA at the bottom. There’s still hope! 😎
What scenario awaits our BTC ancestor this Wednesday? 🤔
- Scenario "Peaceful Serenity": Overall CPI is hot but Core CPI is chilled at 0.2%. The Fed sees this and says: "Oh, it's just oil messing things up, the economy is still solid." On June 17, the Fed doesn’t hike rates ➡️ BTC ancestor bounces back, the credibility green candle stands tall! 🚀
- Scenario "Busy House": Both CPIs are hot. Whales panic, ETFs dump ➡️ Get ready to turn off the candles, delete the app, switch to hunting airdrops, or... temporarily drive Grab to earn money for gas. 🛵
The market is already bracing for a "storm". Now we just wait to see if this Wednesday brings the "boost" that takes us to the moon or a "faceplant" that takes us underground!
Which side are you on? Comment below to join in a prayer circle for that Core CPI to hit 0.2%! 👇
#BTC #ETF

$BTC ETF myth just took a hit.

BlackRock moved some coins again.

$244M.

3966 BTC.

Straight to Coinbase.

On-chain data shows that BlackRock transferred about $244 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase, with a single transaction amounting to 3966 BTC. This isn't the first time; similar transfers have been popping up over the past few weeks, each time in the hundreds of millions, and the direction is clear: from fund-related addresses to exchanges.

The market interpretation behind this is pretty straightforward: when investors redeem from BlackRock's Bitcoin fund, BlackRock needs to move real BTC to the exchange to handle the exits and settlements. In other words, these transfers aren't just normal wallet housekeeping; they're more like physical settlements following ETF fund outflows.

The most ironic part of this whole situation is that ETFs were initially packaged as a channel for "permanent money" entering Bitcoin, making it seem like institutions would hold long-term, unlike retail traders who chase the pump and dump.

But what we're seeing in the market now is:

When prices don’t go up,

money will leave.

ETFs don’t bring eternal buying pressure; they create a larger capital channel.

In a bull run, they can bring traditional money into the game.

In a bear market, they can also transmit redemption pressure directly back to the spot market.

So-called permanent money,

might just appear permanent when prices keep rising.🩸$ETH $XRP #btc

The surrender signal at $BTC is becoming more apparent.

The supply in loss has surged to 50%.

This is a new high since 2026.

The last time we hit this range was in November 2022.

Bitcoin's Supply in Loss MA7d (the 7-day moving average of supply in loss) has climbed to a new high of 50%, meaning nearly half of the BTC supply in the market is currently in a state of unrealized loss. This metric is crucial because it doesn’t just look at short-term price fluctuations; it gauges how many coins have been pushed below the cost basis across the entire market.

Historically, when this metric exceeds 50%, it usually indicates that BTC is entering the capitulation phase, where a large number of holders start to crack under pressure, leading to the liquidation of high-cost positions, short-term funds, and weak hands.

The last time this metric entered a similar range was in November 2022, when BTC was still below 20k, amid extreme panic following the FTX collapse.

So, this isn't just a typical weak signal.

It's more like a warning to the market:

The pain is nearing the cycle's bottom region.

Of course, a 50% reading doesn't mean an immediate reversal, but it indicates that the market has entered a deep cleansing phase. The real bottom often forms not when people feel secure, but when the most people are in unrealized losses, giving up, and starting to doubt BTC.

The deeper the panic,

The more thorough the handover of coins.

The cycle's bottom,

Is typically smashed out like this.🔥$ETH $XRP #btc

Bitcoin holders in trouble?

The $59,500 - $60,000 support is holding for now, but the bias remains clearly bearish.

►Previous weekly candle = clear bearish breakout signal
►Current weekly candle = Doji - pure indecision

Key resistances to flip: $71,000 and $74,500

If support holds, a relief and sideways phase is possible. Short term structure looks slightly better - a bullish correction toward $66,800 - $67,500 remains on the table.

But under those resistances, my take stays the same: $48,000 - $51,000 may be next.🚨

What's your take? More details in my views.

#BTC #bitcoin

🚨 $BTC short is working…

People always ask me how I make these $BTC predictions.

Honestly, anyone can do it. It’s just charts, data and analysis.

The reason I’m still confident on my shorts is the CME gap around 61,085. That’s one of the main reasons I’m expecting lower prices.

Even if $BTC pumps to $74k today, I won’t panic close my shorts. I’ll just stick to my plan and keep following what the charts are telling me.

The market can do anything in the short term, but for now I still believe lower prices are possible.

#BTC

$BTC MACRO SHOCK: FED CUT HOPES GET CRUSHED ⚡

Reuters survey says 70% of economists now expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.50% to 3.75% for the rest of 2026. All 102 economists surveyed see no cut at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, while institutions are pushing rate-cut expectations into 2027 or dropping them completely.

This is a liquidity reset signal.

Higher-for-longer is back in focus, and risk assets need to respect it. Crypto momentum can still run, but the easy-money narrative just took a hit. Watch volatility around policy language.

Not financial advice. Manage your risk.

#BTC #Crypto #FederalReserve #FOMC #BinanceSquar

🚀

Regarding the market review and future outlook, we'll keep it simple

On the night of June 8th, starting at 7 PM, Bitcoin faced resistance at 63800, dipped back to 62800, then bounced to test 63800, fluctuated with spikes at 64200, and during the pullback, there was a rebound at 63800 before it fell back and consolidated around 62800. The MACD is oscillating around the center, and trading volume is low. This indicates a sideways trend.

Notice how the key levels are set by our recent analysis. We'll continue with the two scenarios suggested on June 8th. The range remains untouched. We're focusing on details here, with the mid-day bounce facing resistance at 63500.

If you recall the first scenario I mentioned yesterday, it indicated that if the one-hour bounce continued, the market would ideally pull back and then rally after pausing at 63500, but the current situation seems quite the opposite. This suggests that the continuation of the one-hour bounce has been capped.

The market is leaning more towards sideways movement, and if there's no strong news to stimulate it, it will naturally continue its rhythm, trending downwards.

So, we just stick to our strategy. If it remains in a sideways range, we can keep it between 60800-64200, which can be tightened to a main range of 61200-63800. High sell, low buy. Set your stop-losses in both directions at 60450 and 64850.

Currently, bulls are looking weak, and 62800 is hard to manage solo; expect a test downwards, with the range tentatively set at 61500. #btc

To be honest, today's chart is a bit suffocating.

BTC slid down from 64200 all the way to 62675, dropping nearly 2% on the day. The intraday high of 64200 to the low of 62421 shows about an 1800 dollar range, it's like the shorts are hammering it down one strike at a time, and the bulls really have no solid resistance.

The key pivot was that afternoon move, where a brief consolidation around 63500 led a lot of folks to think it had stabilized, but then a bearish candlestick pierced right through 63000, and the subsequent rebound was weak, indicating heavy sell pressure above. The 24-hour trading volume is over 21200 BTC, not exactly low volume; those who needed to sell are selling.

The data is definitely worth a close look — the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 10, indicating extreme fear. 10, guys, when was the last time we saw this number? Such extreme values often mean market sentiment has panicked close to a clearing point. The funding rate is at 0.003%, and the bulls are still paying to hold positions, which means there are still a lot of folks not ready to give up, so we might not have hit the bottom yet.

If it were me, how would I think? In this extreme fear environment, I actually don’t want to chase shorts. But I’m not in a rush to catch the bottom either; if the 62000-62500 range can hold up if tested again, I might consider taking a small position as a trial. A rebound during a sharp drop is the sweetest, but catching a falling knife really hurts, so position sizing is top priority.

Tomorrow, keep an eye on the 62000 psychological level; this is the last line of defense for the bulls recently. If it breaks down, the space below could open up; if it holds and we see a volume surge with a rebound signal, then this panic might just be a decent washout. Personally, I lean towards an increasing probability of a short-term oversold rebound, but that’s assuming no new bearish news pops up.

The above is purely personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.

#BTC #Market Analysis

🚨 Saylor Blamed AI for Bitcoin's Crash — But Arca Has One Word: “Nonsense”
The crypto market was shaken after Bitcoin experienced a sharp pullback, and the debate over what triggered the decline is heating up.
Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of , suggested that AI-driven capital rotation may have played a role in the recent Bitcoin sell-off. According to his view, investors could be shifting attention and liquidity toward the rapidly growing artificial intelligence sector.
However, crypto investment firm strongly disagrees.
Arca's response was simple and direct: "Nonsense."
The firm argues that the market decline had little to do with AI and points instead to Strategy's own sale of 32 $BTC , which sparked concerns among traders. While the amount may seem small compared to Strategy's massive Bitcoin holdings, the move generated speculation and uncertainty across the market.
This disagreement highlights a bigger question facing crypto investors:
🤔 Was Bitcoin's drop caused by external capital flowing into AI, or was it a reaction to signals coming from one of Bitcoin's biggest corporate supporters?
Despite the short-term volatility, Bitcoin continues to attract institutional interest, and many analysts believe the broader bullish trend remains intact.
One thing is certain: when industry giants disagree publicly, traders pay attention.
⚡ What do you think caused Bitcoin's latest crash?
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews
🔥 Caption Idea:
AI or market psychology? Michael Saylor says AI capital rotation hurt Bitcoin. Arca says that's pure nonsense. The crypto world is divided — what's your verdict? 👇 🚀📉

Right now, what bulls fear most isn't a drop, but getting trapped by a rebound

BTC spot is currently hovering around $62,600, down about -0.87% in the last 24 hours. On the 1-hour chart, the price bounced from $59,130 to $64,200 but didn't manage to open up more room, instead dropping back below $63,000.

This indicates that it's not just about bullish or bearish sentiment anymore, but rather the quality of the rebound: if we can't reclaim the $63,000-$63,300 zone, short-term bulls will remain passive; $64,200 is still the key resistance after this rebound.

On the downside, we're watching the area around $62,400; if it breaks down, we need to watch $62,000-$61,800 for further testing. If we see a volume spike and lose this level, those who chased long positions might get forced into stop losses.

Tonight's livestream, I'll break down a question based on this chart: is this drop a shakeout, or a secondary push down after the end of the rebound?

Risk Warning: Short-term volatility is high, so be mindful of position sizing and stop losses on contracts. The above is just my personal analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. #BTC #Bitcoin

🐋 Big player just opened a massive short

A whale just entered a short at #BTC for $52 million with 20x leverage.

This whale, just like us, anticipates a deeper market dip than what we have right now.

My take is this: when such a large capital goes short - it's a strong confirmation of our scenario. Until we break through $64k, I'm expecting the correction to continue.

Let's wait for the reaction. The market is currently being driven by big players.

Share your thoughts
#btcusdt #BNBUSDT $BTC $BNB

🚨 BREAKING: BITCOIN CRASH DEBATE HEATS UP! 🚨

⚠️ Michael Saylor blamed AI investments for pulling money away from Bitcoin, but crypto investment firm Arca isn't buying it.

🤯 Arca says the real trigger behind last week's selloff was Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, calling the AI explanation "nonsense."

🔥 The clash highlights a growing debate over what's really driving Bitcoin's recent weakness: AI hype, market fear, or institutional selling.

👀 The big question: Was this just a temporary shakeout... or is something bigger happening behind the scenes?

$BTC $MSTR $ETH

#Bitcoin #CryptoNews #BTC

What's the plan for the intraday chop?

This round of price action hit a resistance zone and printed a long upper shadow candlestick, indicating that the bullish momentum has completely waned. The subsequent bullish candles are seeing shrinking volume, and the buying pressure is quickly fading. The candlestick bodies are narrowing, and selling pressure from shorts is becoming increasingly pronounced. At high levels, we even see a classic bearish candlestick reversal pattern, confirming a high-to-low trend.

From a daily timeframe perspective, the previous bottoming rally has clearly hit a wall, and the upward trend driven by strong bullish candles has been completely halted, putting more pressure on prices to head down again. The four-hour chart signals further resonance: after touching the upper Bollinger Band, prices are facing resistance at high levels, with consecutive bearish candles indicating weakness and increasing selling volume; MACD lines are turning down, and KDJ is forming a death cross at high levels, continuously releasing bearish momentum.

Currently, prices have retraced to just above the previous consolidation zone, where a large amount of trapped positions are stacked up, severely limiting the rebound potential. Considering all market signals, the bearish pattern is clear, and any bounce presents a perfect setup to go short. The general trading strategy remains to short in the key resistance zone of 638-642, targeting down to 625 and 615, with a stop loss set at 650. #BTC