Mr-Zhusang
爱交易，用交易诠释一切
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2026.5.8 #降息预期
The crypto market has formed two opposing extremes with the US stock market over the past couple of days. One side is skyrocketing, while the other is tumbling, showing signs of liquidity being drained from crypto. This has fueled the madness and new highs in the stock market. Be aware that today we have non-farm payroll data being released. Progress in US-Iran negotiations has led to a plunge in oil prices by over 7%, undermining energy inflation logic, and the previously supportive "anti-inflation narrative" for crypto has taken a hit. Kevin Warsh is set to replace Powell, and historically, the last three chair transitions have coincided with significant BTC pullbacks. Overall, the technical structure and market sentiment still lean bearish, with the 8-hour adjustment nearing completion. The 12-hour and daily charts remain in a bearish cycle, but there is structural support.
Weak job growth + slowing wages is bullish for BTC (increasing rate cut expectations)
Strong job growth + hot wages is bearish for BTC (decreasing rate cut expectations)
Weak job growth could lead to a drop followed by a rebound (recession trade → rate cut expectations)
This data point is one of the most critical volatility nodes for May; avoid heavy positions before and after the release, and wait for the data to confirm the direction before making moves.
The crypto market has formed two opposing extremes with the US stock market over the past couple of days. One side is skyrocketing, while the other is tumbling, showing signs of liquidity being drained from crypto. This has fueled the madness and new highs in the stock market. Be aware that today we have non-farm payroll data being released. Progress in US-Iran negotiations has led to a plunge in oil prices by over 7%, undermining energy inflation logic, and the previously supportive "anti-inflation narrative" for crypto has taken a hit. Kevin Warsh is set to replace Powell, and historically, the last three chair transitions have coincided with significant BTC pullbacks. Overall, the technical structure and market sentiment still lean bearish, with the 8-hour adjustment nearing completion. The 12-hour and daily charts remain in a bearish cycle, but there is structural support.
Weak job growth + slowing wages is bullish for BTC (increasing rate cut expectations)
Strong job growth + hot wages is bearish for BTC (decreasing rate cut expectations)
Weak job growth could lead to a drop followed by a rebound (recession trade → rate cut expectations)
This data point is one of the most critical volatility nodes for May; avoid heavy positions before and after the release, and wait for the data to confirm the direction before making moves.
2026.4.25 #btc
Due to geopolitical factors, the market is in a sideways holding pattern, neither daring to pump nor dump. Today, representatives from the US and Iran have arrived in Pakistan. With an internally fractured Iran and an unpredictable US administration, it's hard to see what kind of outcome can be negotiated. Even if there's an outcome, we can't guarantee it will be executed. Typically, Saturdays aren't expected to have much volatility, but with this kind of news, the market can swing wildly. Upcoming FOMC meeting (April 28–29): CME FedWatch shows a 98.4% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged, but keep an eye on Kevin Warsh's statements regarding future balance sheet reductions, as they might impact liquidity expectations.
Due to geopolitical factors, the market is in a sideways holding pattern, neither daring to pump nor dump. Today, representatives from the US and Iran have arrived in Pakistan. With an internally fractured Iran and an unpredictable US administration, it's hard to see what kind of outcome can be negotiated. Even if there's an outcome, we can't guarantee it will be executed. Typically, Saturdays aren't expected to have much volatility, but with this kind of news, the market can swing wildly. Upcoming FOMC meeting (April 28–29): CME FedWatch shows a 98.4% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged, but keep an eye on Kevin Warsh's statements regarding future balance sheet reductions, as they might impact liquidity expectations.
2026.4.23 #btc
The crypto market is showing a clear divergence lately, with the big coin hitting a new high of 79400 yesterday, aiming to test the 80k resistance. The altcoin is still far from its previous high, struggling to hold above 2420, while the big coin has established new highs four times without the altcoin breaking through. From the daily chart, both the big coin and the altcoin remain in a healthy bullish state. However, there's significant bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, so keep an eye on the 4, 6, 8, and 12-hour time frames for potential pullbacks. The continued upward movement without a correction is causing excessive divergence.
The crypto market is showing a clear divergence lately, with the big coin hitting a new high of 79400 yesterday, aiming to test the 80k resistance. The altcoin is still far from its previous high, struggling to hold above 2420, while the big coin has established new highs four times without the altcoin breaking through. From the daily chart, both the big coin and the altcoin remain in a healthy bullish state. However, there's significant bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, so keep an eye on the 4, 6, 8, and 12-hour time frames for potential pullbacks. The continued upward movement without a correction is causing excessive divergence.
2026.4.17 #BTC
Yesterday, the market's night session experienced a rapid pullback followed by a quick rebound, maintaining a high-level consolidation range, technically testing the 4-hour support. It also seemed like a rehearsal for a bearish trend. Today, being Friday, the competition between bulls and bears will be more intense. During the Asian trading session, without any news, there won't be much fluctuation, and it will still be a matter of high selling and low buying within a small range, mainly watching for sudden direction changes during the US trading hours. The market sentiment index, fear and greed index, reports 23 (extreme fear), and retail investors' sentiment remains sluggish. Retail investors' willingness to chase bullish trends is relatively weak. The latest core CPI data from the US is slightly below expectations, alleviating concerns about liquidity tightening, and risk assets generally receive a breather.
Yesterday, the market's night session experienced a rapid pullback followed by a quick rebound, maintaining a high-level consolidation range, technically testing the 4-hour support. It also seemed like a rehearsal for a bearish trend. Today, being Friday, the competition between bulls and bears will be more intense. During the Asian trading session, without any news, there won't be much fluctuation, and it will still be a matter of high selling and low buying within a small range, mainly watching for sudden direction changes during the US trading hours. The market sentiment index, fear and greed index, reports 23 (extreme fear), and retail investors' sentiment remains sluggish. Retail investors' willingness to chase bullish trends is relatively weak. The latest core CPI data from the US is slightly below expectations, alleviating concerns about liquidity tightening, and risk assets generally receive a breather.
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