Today at 1:30 PM Eastern, Jerome Powell holds his final press conference as chair of the Fed. His term ends on May 15. Kevin Warsh — with $100 million in personal crypto assets — takes over in June. The Fed holds rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, the third consecutive pause. $BTC consolidates at $76,500 while ETFs recorded $2.12 trillion in 9 consecutive days of inflows: the fastest pace of 2026.
— — — — — — — — — —
💣 BOMBER SIGNAL:
$BTC dropped in the 48 hours following 8 out of the last 9 FOMC meetings. The only one that didn't drop was May 2025 — when the market entered the meeting with Fear & Greed below 30. Today, Fear & Greed is at 40 and BTC has had a 21% rally since the lows in early April. The pattern indicates selling pressure post-FOMC. But ETFs absorbed 19,000 BTC in 9 days — more than miners produced in that period. And Binance Research confirmed that the BTC-Fed correlation has flipped: BTC is leading, not following.
— — — — — — — — — —
🌡️ THERMOMETER TODAY:
Sentiment: ⚡ Tense — last FOMC with Powell
24h Trend: 📉 Consolidating at $76,500
Warsh: ✅ Takes office on May 15
Conviction: 🎯 8/10
🔍 TODAY:
📊 Price: $76,500 — Coinpedia confirmed
🏛️ Powell: last FOMC — 1:30 PM ET today
📊 Fed: maintains 3.5-3.75% — 3rd pause
💰 BTC ETF: $2.12B in 9 days — 2026 record
📊 VS LAST WEEK:
Price: $74,000 → $76,500 (+3.4%) 📈
ETF 9 days: $2.12B — absorbing more than miners ✅
Warsh: takes office May 15 — crypto-friendly era ✅
🎯 KEY Levels:
🔴 Support: $75,000 — $73,000
🟡 Resistance: $78,200 — $80,000
🟢 If it breaks $80,000: $83,218 (200d MA) → $88,000
⚠️ If it drops below $75,000: $72,000 → $70,000
🎯 SETUP: If the FOMC pattern holds, the pressure window is 48 hours — until May 1. If ETFs remain positive on April 30, the selloff will be contained. After that, the Warsh era begins and the framework changes completely.
📌 IN SUMMARY:
1️⃣ Last FOMC with Powell today — Warsh takes over on May 15, the biggest Fed shift in years
2️⃣ BTC fell in 8 of 9 FOMCs — but the $2.12B ETF in 9 days changes the structural dynamics
3️⃣ Tomorrow: Q1 GDP + PCE — if growth misses, the chance of a rate cut increases
— — — — — — — — — —
💛 If this analysis brought you value, consider leaving us a tip on Binance Square. Thanks! 🙏
— — — — — — — — — —
Does $BTC April close above $77,000 — YES or NO? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. DYOR.