CryptoQuant Quicktake

• Following the FTX collapse in Nov. 2022, Bitcoin Exchange Reserves closed below its previous higher low. Since then, it has remained in a downtrend up to June 2026.
Written by Facundo Fama

The $BTC UTXOs in Loss (%) reach the 60% level.
The increasing trend of this indicator means that investors who are in loss in ratio are increasing.
Investor losses are increasing to their maximum level. This is a signal that the market is very close to the bottom.
Investors are suffering their biggest losses in last 6 years. The market remains in a fear state.
However, paradoxically, the bottom has appeared amidst this situation. It is very close.
Written by CW8900

Exchange Inflow CDD remains at a very low level around 720. After the sharp spike seen in mid April and the smaller increase at the end of May, the metric has returned to its baseline. This suggests that long-term holders are not transferring their BTC to Binance. Since Binance is the largest liquidity hub in the market, I interpret this as a positive signal.
The current selling pressure is mainly coming from short-term investors. Transfers from small wallets have increased significantly. The latest **Spent Output Value Band** reading is around 9.80, one of the highest levels in recent months. This indicates that wallets holding 0–0.01 BTC are sending a substantial amount of Bitcoin to Binance.
Meanwhile, SOPR stands at approximately 0.98. The latest reading shows that coins spent on-chain are, on average, being sold at a loss.
Based on these on-chain metrics, selling pressure is likely to persist in the short term. At this stage, there are still no strong on-chain signals supporting a sustained bullish reversal.
Although the lack of selling activity from large investors reduces the risk of a sharp decline, the market is likely to remain under mild bearish pressure and continue trading with a negative sideways bias.
Written by PelinayPA

I’m seeing more and more indicators reaching extreme values, suggesting that the BTC market is entering a genuine devaluation phase.
UTXO analysis, represented here by a net supply ratio, reveals that we’re entering a phase where accumulation becomes relevant.
UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) are a mechanism specific to Bitcoin that ensures a BTC has only been spent once.
These UTXOs therefore contain information (price, dates, amount) that allows us to analyze what’s happening on-chain and deduce behaviors from it.
This ratio has now been negative for a week and just reached -0.075, corresponding to a buy signal.
The last time this happened was at the end of 2022, right at the end of the bear market.
This isn’t an indicator dedicated to detecting tops and bottoms; its purpose is to help position oneself relative to a global supply that could find itself with either large profits or larger losses.
Since it depends on the profit and loss of UTXOs, it can very well signal something during either a sharp drop or a sharp rise.
That said, in terms of cyclicality, it wouldn’t be inconsistent to think that the end of this bear market could be approaching.
This won’t stop BTC from going lower, but we now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion. The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time.
Written by Darkfost

Ethereum staking rate has shown a consistent long-term uptrend since the Merge upgrade. Now it has crossed 33% for the first time, indicating that an increasing percentage of the total ETH supply is being locked in staking. In contrast, the ETH price has experienced significant volatility, moving through multiple bull and bear market cycles. While price has fluctuated sharply, the staking rate has continued to climb steadily, suggesting that long-term investors remain committed to securing the Ethereum network regardless of short-term market conditions.
The latest data shows the staking rate reaching a new all-time high of around 33.06%, while ETH's market price has declined to approximately $1,500. This divergence is notable because staking participation continues to increase despite the recent price weakness. The data indicates that investors are choosing to lock their ETH rather than sell it, reducing the liquid supply available on exchanges. Such behavior reflects strong confidence in Ethereum's long-term fundamentals and suggests that many participants view the current price levels as temporary rather than a reason to exit their positions.
Looking ahead, the continued increase in the staking rate could become a bullish factor for Ethereum if demand begins to recover. A higher percentage of staked ETH reduces the circulating supply, which can amplify price movements when buying pressure returns. However, staking growth alone does not guarantee an immediate price recovery, as broader macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and institutional demand will continue to influence price action. If staking remains above 33% while accumulation continues, Ethereum may be building a stronger foundation for the next market cycle once selling pressure subsides.
Written by EgyHash

Large XRP withdrawals became increasingly dominant on Coinbase in the second half of June, with transfers above 1 million XRP rising from roughly 10% of total outflow value on June 16 to 25.7% by July 1.
The increase means whale-sized transactions more than doubled their share of XRP leaving Coinbase in just over two weeks, adding 15.7 percentage points to the platform’s outflow mix.
Binance showed a different pattern. Rather than accelerating from a low base, XRP withdrawals above 1 million XRP remained consistently dominant throughout the same period, holding near half of total outflow value and ending at 49.6%.
Together, the two exchanges point to a more whale-heavy withdrawal structure for XRP. Coinbase is seeing a sharp rise in the weight of large transfers, while Binance continues to show that nearly one in every two dollars of XRP leaving the platform is tied to transactions above 1 million XRP.
The data does not confirm where those coins are ultimately going, but it highlights a clear shift: large holders are accounting for a growing share of XRP withdrawals on Coinbase at a time when Binance remains heavily dominated by the same transaction tier.
Written by Amr Taha

June 2026 was one of Bitcoin's most challenging months. BTC fell from around $73K to as low as $58K, marking its lowest level in about 21 months. ETF outflows, persistent high interest rates, and a stronger U.S. dollar fueled a broad risk-off environment.
However, on-chain data tells a more nuanced story. The Coinbase Premium Index remained negative throughout June, indicating weak U.S. institutional spot demand, while Apparent Demand stayed deeply negative, confirming that new buying was insufficient to absorb supply.
At the same time, valuation metrics moved closer to historical bear-market territory. MVRV declined toward levels typically associated with undervaluation, and Bitcoin's market price approached its Realized Price—the average on-chain acquisition cost of all circulating BTC. Historically, major cycle bottoms have often formed near this level.
Meanwhile, long-term holders continued holding, and whale accumulation remained resilient despite widespread panic selling by short-term investors.
At XWIN, we believe June should not be viewed simply as a month of price collapse. Instead, it marked a transition in market structure: selling pressure intensified, but so did long-term accumulation. Going forward, the key indicators to watch are ETF flows, Coinbase Premium, Apparent Demand, and overall liquidity. Their recovery—not price alone—will determine whether Bitcoin is preparing for its next bull cycle.
Written by XWIN Japan

5. Predicting "how far the LTH share falls" can't locate the top either
The idea that you can pin the top by predicting how far the long-term-holder share of Realized Cap will drop falls into the same trap. How far it drops depends on how much long-term holders actually sell during this overvalued phase — and that can't be known without seeing the future. Besides, long-term holders aren't a group defined by intent: a coin is reclassified as long-term automatically after 155 days, so supply that got stuck at the last top and turned long-term involuntarily is mixed in. Until you can fix the floor of that share in advance, this isn't prediction — it's hindsight.
Closing
Indicators don't lie. What fails is always the attempt to use them as the answer key to the top. Compositing, normalizing, weighting — none of it fixes that; it just copies the same bet into several cells and fits the lines to past tops.
So before putting a composite to work in investing or analysis, ask yourself: do these indicators share the same root? Can you detect the risk signal in real time, with look-ahead removed? Are the quantified settings arbitrary? In the end, sound analysis hinges not on the fact that an indicator hit its threshold, but on the habit of questioning what it was built to assume — and where it breaks.
Written by AbstractRyu

4. Scoring them into a total doesn't fix it either
Would scoring several criteria and judging by "how many are met" be more objective? Take seven overvaluation criteria with clear thresholds, assume you ran this composite on the 2024-25 cycle, and test it on past cycles too. The criteria and their definitions:
The thresholds — and the "four or more" cut — are all constants reverse-engineered from past tops. So a single notch in the cut decides the verdict. Applied to the 16-17 cycle:
Raising the cut from 4 to 5 alone pushes the first signal back five months. And on the very cycle this was built for — 24-25 — the count peaks at just 1, so no matter how low you set the cut, it detects no top at all: the indicators share a root and never fire together. Scoring adds no objectivity, only constants you have to re-tune every cycle — seven thresholds and one cut.
Written by AbstractRyu

3. Indicators that share the same weakness
If N indicators fire at once, does that signal a top with high probability? It's worth suspecting overfitting at least once — because some of these indicators were never independent. They branch from the same root.
Take MVRV and NUPL. Realized Cap grows larger every cycle, so even deep in overvalued territory MVRV can't climb as high as it once did. NUPL has the same limitation — both for the very reason a fixed threshold can't hold. SOPR and NRPL are no different: the same realized profit and loss, read as a ratio versus a difference, so they move almost in lockstep.
So "several indicators all point to overvaluation" isn't a stack of independent confirmations — it's one measurement copied into several cells. Sharing a root, the composite either goes silent together or fires all at once, far from the actual top.
Written by AbstractRyu

2. The same indicator predicts differently from cycle to cycle
Suppose you put a "cross this line and it's overheated" boundary on four different indicators, and call the top on the day a majority hit their thresholds. Run that across three cycles:
Each cell shows the lag between the signal firing and the actual top, and the firing-day price as a percentage of that top. The table makes one point: no signal catches the top on time. In one cycle it fires far too early; in the next it barely fires at all.
Take SOPR. A sustained rise in SOPR means the market has started taking profit — distributing — not that a ceiling is in. Whether a given signal marks the top or just a pullback before a bigger leg up only becomes clear in hindsight. In a staircase cycle like 2024-25, SOPR fired again at every step: the first signal came 19 months before the top, the last still 3 months before. 2021 played out differently — after firing, it corrected and then made new highs. Anyone who read it as a "top signal" and sold would have missed the rest of the rally.
Written by AbstractRyu

Note: The example composite model and figures are based on public data; the thresholds and weights are the author's own settings. §4 is a simulation that applies a seven-criterion composite to past cycles, and its thresholds and cut are illustrative.
Combining more on-chain indicators won't sharpen your read on the market cycle. The idea sounds reasonable: a single indicator can misfire, so you stack several and let them check one another. But which indicators you choose, and on what basis, is the author's call — and each one's threshold lands at a different level every cycle. Normalization and weighting don't fix that. The real problem is treating a quantified indicator as the answer key to the top, and no combination solves it.
1. Subjectivity enters the moment you pick the indicators
A composite model looks like a sum of objective measurements, but the first steps — choosing the indicators and setting their thresholds — are already the author's judgment. Thresholds are usually reverse-engineered from past cycle tops: MVRV ran roughly 3–4 at the last two peaks, so people assume "MVRV above 3 means overheated." The number looks convincing, but it's just a line someone drew to fit past tops.
Written by AbstractRyu

Liquidity drainage from ETFs isn’t stopping, and for the first time since ETFs have existed, more than 100,000 BTC have left ETF providers’ reserves.
And that’s just for 2026.
If we start from BTC’s all-time high held by these entities (October 2025), we’re at more than 160,000 BTC sold !
In terms of drawdown, this is the largest ETFs have ever experienced. It’s estimated at over $11B in losses, a historic record.
With a realized price hovering around $73,000, BTC holders now mostly find themselves holding BTC at a loss.
The bear market spares no one, not even the ETFs and the biggest players like Blackrock.
Written by Darkfost

Historically, bull markets have begun once BTC holdings of U.S.-based cryptocurrency custodians (exchanges, digital asset managers, digital asset banks) began exhibiting relative strength against BTC holdings of entities located outside the U.S.
At present, U.S. Bitcoin holdings have not yet shown this turn higher.
This suggests the current period of range bound consolidation may persist somewhat longer before the next bull market materializes.
Written by crypto sunmoon

Looking back, every recurring bear market has brought a bleak period when Bitcoin fell below its realized price, and that has been the best Bitcoin investment opportunity.
The realized price currently stands at around $53K.
If that moment comes again, where price falls below the realized price, invest for the new cycle.
Written by crypto sunmoon

Since the break below $70K, exchange inflows have risen sharply, with the majority of this volume consisting of coins held for roughly six to twelve months, coins most likely accumulated near the cycle highs. This pattern is consistent with capitulation among cycle-top buyers, as holders appear to be cutting losses rather than continuing to hold through the drawdown.
For some, this will be a painful stretch. That said, capitulation events of this kind among cycle-top investors have historically coincided with long-term bottom formation, a pattern observed in both the 2018 and 2022 cycles
Written by crypto sunmoon

Data shows that the number of ERC20 stablecoin deposit transactions into Binance has started to increase again recently, currently around 27K transactions.
For $BTC, this is a signal worth watching because stablecoin deposits often reflect capital being moved onto exchanges, possibly to prepare for trading or wait for buying opportunities.
However, the current increase is still not truly strong compared to previous periods of explosive inflows. This suggests that liquidity is returning, but market sentiment remains cautious.
In other words, capital is flowing into Binance, but not clearly enough to confirm that strong spot buying pressure has returned.
For $BTC, if deposits continue to rise while price holds support, the market may gradually improve. But if deposit flows remain weak, a strong recovery will need further confirmation from volume and real buying pressure.
Written by Rei Researcher

Bitcoin has been in a sideways phase for nearly five months now, a dynamic that keeps investors on edge with every price swing, especially as the symbolic $60 000 threshold approaches.
Last week, BTC came back to retest this $60k zone, and investor reaction was immediate. Over that single week, we observe around $1.7B in stablecoin outflows from Binance, a platform that alone concentrates almost 70% of stablecoins held on exchanges.
This liquidity flight illustrates the nervousness of part of the market, with some investors choosing to exit the market entirely by withdrawing their stablecoins from the exchange.
Two elements, however, invite us to put the structural significance of this move into perspective, and suggest a more operational explanation :
— Despite Binance’s renewed assurances regarding its MiCA license, some European users find themselves forced to withdraw their funds from the platform while the situation gets resolved.
— This chart only accounts for ERC-20 stablecoins, the chain predominantly used for stablecoin flows, so it’s possible that part of these outflows is also due to rotation between chains.
While these strong outflows do describe investors continuing to protect their capital, these two factors nuance the reading of these stablecoin outflows.
Written by Darkfost

The U.S. to The Rest Reserve Ratio is flashing a familiar warning sign. After peaking near 1.79 in July 2025, this crucial metric, which tracks the relative share of Bitcoin held by U.S. institutions versus the rest of the world has collapsed to 1.59.
Historically, when American demand dries up and the ratio drops, price weakness follows. We saw this leading indicator map out previous macro shifts, and it is happening again: the ratio broke down before Bitcoin even rolled over from its $125K peak.
While a falling ratio doesn't guarantee an immediate freefall but as seen during the 2022 floor-seeking phase, this chart heavily tilts the odds in favor of the bears. U.S. capital flows have fundamentally anchored this cycle’s aggressive rallies. With American entities aggressively reducing their relative exposure faster than global counterparts, the market is losing its primary engine.
Until this institutional supply drain finds a definitive floor, expect heavy resistance overhead and rising bearish momentum in the weeks ahead. Keep a close eye on the 1.50 level becasue more decline would mean more dumping in ETH by US.
Written by TopNotchYJ

Data from the Open Interest Turnover Ratio for XRP on Binance shows that the derivatives market is currently experiencing relative stability, with a noticeable decline in open interest compared to the peak reached in the second half of 2025. According to the latest data, open interest stands at approximately 375.56 million XRP, while the Open Interest Turnover Ratio remains stable at around 0.71.
The data indicates that open interest previously exceeded 1.3 billion XRP before entering a gradual downward trend and stabilizing near 400 million XRP in recent months. Meanwhile, the Open Interest Turnover Ratio experienced several temporary spikes above 4, coinciding with periods of heightened volatility and increased trading activity. However, the indicator has since returned to more normal levels.
The stability of the Open Interest Turnover Ratio near 0.71, coupled with lower open interest, suggests that traders have become more cautious about opening new positions, while the pace of short-term speculation has slowed compared to previous periods. This also reflects a decline in the turnover of derivatives positions, which could help reduce market volatility if these conditions persist.
The current reading points to a calmer and more stable derivatives market than in recent months. However, any sudden increase in the Open Interest Turnover Ratio, particularly if accompanied by rising open interest, could serve as an early signal of renewed speculative activity and increased volatility in XRP's price in the coming period.
Written by Arab Chain