懂币猫

Back on top of the annual leaderboard

I currently don’t think hyperscaler AI capex will clearly slow down in this round of earnings.

Although the market is currently choosing ghost stories about trading META.

Everyone knows that aggressive capital expenditures will definitely put pressure on the stock price in the short term. But flip it around: losing this AI battle would mean the core business base could be eroded. This isn’t just a question of how much the stock price falls—it’s a direct question of survival.

So I remain optimistic about the AI Capex data in this month’s Mag 7 earnings.

However, in the subsequent Mag 7 earnings, someone is definitely going to fall behind and become just one of the masses—like domestic internet companies, such as Baidu, getting the same treatment.

#BTC #SOL

I entered some long positions in Bitcoin and SOL.
I’m bullish on a small rebound and trading based on a ranging/oscillation logic. My entry rationale is:

1. The jobs report (non-farm) was positive, easing rate-hike expectations.
2. “Waller”/the Fed official’s remarks became less hawkish because the data is improving.
3. With lower rate-hike expectations, risk assets naturally rise—this is the same logic for gold and silver.
4. Tensions between the US and Iran eased; oil dropped. The upcoming CPI data should continue to be supportive.
5. SOL is stronger than BTC and also stronger than ETH because of currency/FX movements.

I’m already in profit. Let’s see how it goes next week, and I’ll share an update 🙃🙃🙃

People with no AI positions around here are all praising Zuckerberg

#海力士

Before the words were even out, SK hynix surged straight into a trading halt

Born in Korea, what could daily life be but fascinating? The Korean people’s “life needs a thrill” mentality is actually etched into their very bones. Geographically, it’s a peninsula wedged between great powers; historically, it has weathered too many upheavals—so the national character is “fast”: love fast, hate fast, rise fast, and fall fast too

Savor wine today and get drunk today; worry comes tomorrow and worries tomorrow

Zuckerberg is an outsider—a once-in-a-millennium endeavor to stab the United States' AI national destiny

People in the group say META is the Chinese version of Baidu

Spot on!

The whole world is criticizing Zuckerberg

Many people don’t realize that behind the U.S. stock market there has long existed a very stable, structural buy-side demand

These funds are not made by people watching the news every day and trading, nor do they constantly enter and exit based on whether valuations are high or low. Instead, they come from U.S. retirement plans such as pension funds, 401(k)s, IRAs, employer matching, automatic payroll deductions, target-date funds, index funds… These institutional designs cause large amounts of money to keep flowing into the capital markets in a way that is almost like an “automatic investment plan”

A significant portion of that ultimately gets allocated to broad U.S. equity indices—especially S&P 500, total-market index funds, as well as target-date funds with U.S. stocks as the core

So, the U.S. stock market has an important underlying support over the long term:

No matter whether valuations are expensive or cheap in the short run, whether the news is noisy, or whether market volatility is high or low—so long as Americans continue working, wages continue being paid, and the retirement system continues to operate, some portion of funds will enter the market month after month

This isn’t sentiment-driven buying; it’s institutional buying

What’s behind it is payroll withholding, employer matching, tax advantages, default allocations, and a passive investment framework

It may not be able to prevent bear markets, but it is one of the most stable and hardest-to-dislodge long-term sources of bullish positioning in U.S. equities

#OpenAI

OpenAI's American-style “get-rich-or-die” political deal

It may end up becoming the second “US state-owned enterprise” after INTC. I have to say Sam Altman’s political awareness is really high.

The AI race is no longer a competition between companies—it’s a war between two major countries, the US and China. It can only be won, not lost. The winner will be the boss of Earth for the next 100 years.

#ETH

Retail investors love Ethereum, so retail investors need to learn to accept reality

When people ask me how to be happy, I always say: lower your expectations—make them match reality. Holding unrealistic expectations all the time is destined to bring a lifetime of suffering

Don’t have unrealistic expectations for Ethereum. When Ethereum went to 10,000, how many retail investors were fooled into getting on board? Do you believe EOS can reach 500?

It’s been three years. Since the bull market started in 2023, I’ve been criticizing Ethereum—criticizing it through this bear market as well. Three years still isn’t enough to help you recognize what’s really going on with a coin? In three years, hasn’t the ETHBTC exchange rate basically behaved like the ratio between ordinary altcoins and Bitcoin?

In the next bull market, you should put your main position into Bitcoin—not gamble on uncertain Ethereum. For dollar-cost averaging, invest in Bitcoin and QQQ. First ensure the high-probability things, then go after the low-probability, high-risk moves

There are more than 8 billion people in this world, and everyone has their own views. And a trustworthy viewpoint is either supported by reliable data or backed by logic that can stand up to scrutiny. What is the logical support for Ethereum? Everyone, please advise 🙏🙏🙏

#Meta

Meta sells excess computing power and moves into cloud business

It feels like the market is already pricing in that Meta is going to cut capital expenditure first

The impact on storage going forward needs a few trading days to observe

#BTC

Why do many people think Bitcoin’s bottom is at 60,000?

No wonder you’re losing so much money

#INTC #AMAT #LRCX #ASML

The tracked devices sector stocks have all reached new highs. The logic continues—so the hold continues.

The core contradiction in the global AI hardware industry chain is shifting from insufficient compute capacity to expanded storage production. South Korea’s push for Samsung and SK hynix to carry out large-scale capital expenditures (Capex) over the next few years means the industry is entering a supply-response phase.

And since storage demand is not infinite, the real question worth discussing is not: who is expanding capacity—Hynix, Samsung, or Micron?

1）Industry chain logic:
AI demand ↑ → HBM demand ↑ → Storage CapEx ↑ → Equipment orders ↑ → Materials ↑ → Packaging ↑ → Storage profits

2）Capital flows:
South Korea expands construction → purchases equipment → purchases materials → purchases advanced packaging → and only then begins producing HBM.
Therefore, equipment orders are determined first and revenue is recognized the fastest. Equipment companies benefit first, followed by materials companies and advanced packaging companies. Storage companies, however, have to wait until capacity is built before they can truly start generating profits.

#交易日记
2026/7/1

U.S. stocks’ risk appetite continues to recover, as technology takes over the rebound

SPY rose 0.78% to close at 746.77, QQQ rose 1.70% to close at 736.40, and VIX fell 6.80% to close at 16.45. This is a very good continuation candlestick pattern. Yesterday, SPY reclaimed 740, and today it pushed toward 750. Yesterday QQQ reclaimed 720, and today it surged to around 736. Technology stocks are once again the main theme in the market.

The strongest sector today is semiconductors: SMH rose 3.78% and SOXX rose 4.30%. NVDA gained 2.63%, AVGO rose 1.42%, MRVL jumped 7.25%, DELL rose 4.06%, SNDK climbed 10.89%. This indicates that the repair in AI hardware and semiconductors is continuing to spread.

What’s different from the past few days is that today it’s not just one direction—storage—running higher. NVDA, MRVL, DELL, and SNDK are all up, suggesting that buying interest in chips and AI hardware has broadened.

Technology is the absolute main line today. XLK rose 2.76% and ranked first among the 11 major sectors. Industrial XLI gained 1.35% and performed well too. However, real estate XLRE fell 1.98%, consumer staples XLP dropped 1.54%, utilities XLU fell 1.48%, and health care XLV declined 1.29%.

This is a classic return of risk appetite: funds withdraw from defensive sectors and return to buy technology and growth.

IGV rose 0.79%. OKTA rose 3.91%, ZS rose 2.58%, and CRWD rose 2.72%, but CRM fell 0.80%, NOW fell 0.69%. This suggests software is starting to recover, but there’s still differentiation within the group. Security software is clearly stronger than traditional enterprise software. If IGV can continue to strengthen, the quality of the technology rebound should improve further.

Among big tech, TSLA rose 2.13%, MSFT rose 1.21%, GOOG rose 0.58%, and META rose 0.12%. AMZN fell 0.75%. This structure indicates that big tech overall is repairing, but not every heavy-weight is strong.

There is also partial recovery in AI cloud and compute infrastructure: NBIS rose 5.75% and CRWV rose 4.22%. The rebound in NBIS and CRWV is a good signal, but the whole sector still needs more stocks to follow.

At the macro level, there’s a bit of a contradiction. VIX has fallen to 16.45, which is positive. But the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.418%, and the U.S. dollar index is also slightly higher at 101.287. In theory, rising rates and a stronger dollar would weigh on technology. Yet today technology remains strong. This suggests today’s tech rally is driven mainly by active buying and short-covering, not just a pure macro tailwind.

Next, the two most important levels are:
SPY—whether it can hold above 750; QQQ—whether it can break through 740. As long as these two levels are secured, the market in early July will return to the hands of the bulls, and we can look for new highs if the breakout continues.

#美股

In early June, on Wednesday night when the CPI was released, it was the lowest point for the entire month of June

At the time, I went bargain-hunting on strong stocks:
SNDK
LRCX
AMAT
INTC
ASML

Aside from ASML lagging a bit, the average gain was 30%+.
In recent days, the live stream host has been sighing—actually holding on is truly a kind of mysticism. The more a stock shoots up, the harder it is to hold. The more a stock you’re stuck in, the longer you end up holding it.

The four most expensive words in the stock market have always been:

"I could have"
"Sorry—back then, I really didn’t know how to love you"