RubyLee

Summary of December

This month, looking back, I have made a lot of progress in both technical analysis and discipline when entering trades.
Regarding technical analysis
For the major trend of $BTC and top coins. Currently, the technical analysis perspectives I have provided are still correct. In December, #BTC ultimately remains a downtrend, many top coins have already reached new lows. Notably, $XLM $HBAR #ADA #Near , my technical analysis has been right. I am only limited by timing, meaning that determining the timing of the wave occurrence has not been accurate enough. I probably need to find out where the mistakes are.
As for the smaller waves, I have been correct about 80% of the smaller up and down waves. I am limited in identifying resistance test areas; I can identify the test wave correctly, but the accuracy of determining the test area is not very high. This is something I still need to improve in the near future.

Regarding altcoins, this month I have also been very limited in trading altcoins. At the end of the month, I found #CHZ and #XPL with beautiful charts and have also accumulated holdings. Currently, these two coins have provided about 20-25% profit for my holding account. These two coins are mid-cap, with a market cap still in the top 100, so I am quite reassured.

Regarding trading
As mentioned, I have been correct about the top coins in technical analysis. So I short the top coins, earning about 5-10% profit each day, as there are days when the trend is unclear and I do not enter trades. Sometimes I still have to stop-loss, but it is not significant. There are times when I am not alert enough and short when the trend is unclear; I usually close the position right after that. I am not disciplined enough to always enter the correct trades 100%, but I am disciplined enough to close positions whenever I feel the trend is unclear.

In conclusion: I had a pretty amazing trading month 🥰

Summary of last week.
I analyzed the top coin chart quite well. Basically, there are still mistakes in identifying resistance areas. However, the overall trend identification was good. It feels like the top coin wave is quite clear.

As for altcoins, it was actually a rather bad week 😖😖😖 At the beginning of the week, I managed to earn about 3-7% on each altcoin.
However, by the end of the week, coins were running in a breakout style but mostly fake breaks. The D frame break with 3D takes a long time, but it returned to break support in just 1-2 days. Most of the time, I had to stoploss when it broke the diagonal trendline. Each stoploss lost 2% because I waited for the breakout before entering. The stoploss at the diagonal trendline is also not too far away.
By the end of the week, there was only $GIGGLE that I bought with profit, sold at $144 last night. That's a profit of about 15-20%. After offsetting the stoploss from other altcoins, it can be said that I made a profit of 5-7% 😂😂😂. Well, having a profit is good enough, although there were many stoplosses @@

In conclusion, from now on I will specialize in trading top coins and extremely limit altcoins. Firstly, I analyze top coins better, and top coins also have clearer price movements. As for altcoins, they are very unstable in their waves; even if there is a breakout breaking resistance, it is not trustworthy. Every time I enter an altcoin, there is a stoploss, so I don't want to enter anymore @@
Secondly, the market is entering a downtrend, making it difficult and the volume has dropped significantly. Now, altcoins mostly only have retracement waves. And with weak volume during retracement, it’s uncertain whether it can test resistance or if it will drop halfway. The determination of profit for altcoins has become unclear. It makes it hard for me to determine whether the profit-risk ratio is reasonable and acceptable. I will not invest in things with unclear risks.

These past few days have been busy, so I haven't traded. Today I checked in and saw the market still sideways with slight movement, but my hold account has been increasing. So I'd like to share a bit of my capital allocation experience.
I split my capital into two parts: 80% goes into my hold account and the remaining 20% into this trading account.
My hold account is used for long-term coin holdings, or alternatively, I use 30% of the volume to place short x1 orders during downtrends if I can't find any coins to hold long-term. Currently, my hold account holds $CHZ $XPL v and $SPK . Of this, 70% of the capital is invested in #CHZ , while the other two coins each receive only 15%. Among these three, only #CHZ is currently in a bottom accumulation phase, with a monthly timeframe and other larger timeframes looking favorable, giving it a high chance of breaking out of the downtrend and entering an upward wave. The other two coins still have potential for holding, but only their daily and weekly charts are attractive, resulting in a lower probability of an upward wave and a higher chance of a retracement wave. Therefore, I assess these two coins as having higher risk, so I allocate less volume to them. Currently, #xpl and #spk did not close their weekly candles in a favorable way, so I will stop-loss part of these two coins first. I'll wait for a retracement wave or for a clear breakdown of the uptrend before cutting the rest.

My trading account holds 20% of the capital, used for day trading to generate living expenses. On days when the market direction is unclear or the risk-reward ratio isn't satisfactory, I refrain from trading. Today, I just stopped out of the previous bottom-fishing positions in my trading account, as the weekly and 3D candles of the top coin and #BTC didn't close well. To be honest, my trading account doesn't generate as much profit as my hold account, because every time I make a profit, I withdraw that portion separately, leaving the remaining capital for continued trading.

In general, this capital allocation method works well for me. If anyone finds it useful, feel free to refer to it.

Mấy hôm nay mình bận chuyển nhà nên không vào trade. Hôm nay xem thấy coin top và $BTC đóng nến 3D và nến W không đẹp nên tạm thời mình stoploss các lệnh bắt đáy lần trước vậy. Có vẻ là vẫn chưa có đáy đâu, vẫn phải chờ thêm. $BTC vẫn chưa về 88k

$CHZ yesterday back to 42-43 only, calling it a 10% adjustment. The market shows signs of a bottom, so I accumulated immediately.
Today it's already reached 15-20%.
The monthly timeframe has reversed and broken the resistance beautifully.
The weekly timeframe is currently forming an expanding triangle. The 3D timeframe has already broken the pattern. Now we only need the weekly candle to close above the break. Then we can confirm the downtrend and the accumulation phase of $CHZ have ended. After all, $CHZ has been accumulating for nearly a year to form this expanding triangle. Combined with the strong monthly reversal candlestick pattern and the well-formed 3m and 6m candles, the probability of breaking out of the downtrend and entering an upward wave now is increasing.
I believe this one has a high chance of leading this year.

$SPK although the purchase zone was set at 24-25, I didn't expect it to go all the way down to 240.
So I gathered up to 246, which used up all my USDT for this one. I thought it would test 29-30 that day. But I didn't expect it to test for so long.
Anyway. In the end, I just gathered and held it 🤔🤔🤔 As long as the major trend doesn't break, it's fine

$FIL thì cũng coi là coin midcap đi. Nhưng nếu không thay tên đổi chart thì con này thành hẹo coin 😖😖😖
Mình cũng không định ptkt con này đâu, vì hồi tháng 11 xem qua thấy thủng hỗ trợ lớn khung tháng là thấy lỏ rồi. Nhưng mà vô tình lướt square, thấy có người bảo cái gì mà tích lũy 3 năm các thứ nghe nó dở lắm ý. Mình hy vọng là sẽ không có ai đu thêm vào dca hold con này nữa, vì cơ hội về bờ chỉ có 5-10% thôi 😖😖😖

Xét khung tháng, sau khi đục thủng đáy thấp nhất vùng 10-11$, $FIL chạy hộp một khoảng thời gian rất dài nhưng không đủ khả năng break hộp để trở lại nền tăng giá. Và trong thời gian chạy hộp, $FIL đã kịp tạo một mô hình vai đầu vai khung tháng để đục thủng luôn cái hộp này.
Sau khi thủng hộp thì sao, dùng 7-8 cây nến tháng để test với mong muốn quay trở lại hộp nhưng đều thất bại.
Vốn dĩ sau khi đục thủng hỗ trợ tháng, nó đã không có đáy rồi. Chạy được hộp tích lũy nó còn cố tạo vai đầu vai rồi đục thủng hộp nữa. Dễ thành hẹo coin trong mùa dowtrend này lắm.

Giờ đang dowtrend, giai đoạn tăng hiện tại cũng chỉ là sóng hồi để giảm tiếp mà thôi. Có chọn coin hold ngắn hạn, trung hạn ăn sóng hồi thì ăn rồi bán thôi. Chứ mình không nghĩ nên mua hold hoặc dca hold coin ở thời điểm hiện tại. Vì gặp những coin có chart thế này, mà nó không thay tên đổi chart mới, thì xác định trước tài khoản dần về số 0 thôi. Coin như này sẽ không có đáy, thậm chí bị delist.

That's mostly correct. Except for the $VIRTUAL
The $PEPE one should go back to zone 600, I thought it would sweep down to zone 530-550. But since it doesn't, starting to buy at zone 600 is also reasonable.

My hold account is gathering coins again. Now, this account only has USDT left for trading.
I'll wait until tomorrow morning to close the daily candle, then I'll join the bottom test. For now, I think the accumulation is going well. 🤔🤔🤔

Almost matched. Just $AAVE left. There's still a chance of a test bottom tomorrow.
$AAVE has already reached the price channel test area that was broken, right? 🤷🤷🤷
Just bought another $PEPE 606, probably will only go down to the 600 zone. Going lower would break the diagonal trendline 😂😂😂 I thought it would drop down to the 530-550 range. But it seems to be hesitating now.

4 hours have passed, and I still haven't seen the bottom yet 🤔🤔🤔
It might take until around 8-9 PM after the H12 close. Let's place a preliminary order for the amount we need to buy.
Place a preliminary order for $NEAR 1.658 $XLM 2269 $LINK 13.16$ #AAVE 161$ #ADA 387, let's see how it goes. As for the rest, whether it goes up or down, we'll wait until after 7 PM to gather and buy the remaining shares, which would be ideal 🤷🤷🤷

Perhaps the market will find its bottom today.
$BTC perhaps need to return to the 88-89k range to test the cup handle pattern.
I'm waiting for $NEAR in the 1.575-1.665$ range. $VIRTUAL 0.87$-0.93.
#PEPE‏ range of 540-600. #XLM range of 2235-2280.
#LINK 12.9-13.15$
#AAVE range of 160$
#ADA range of 383-387
Check which one reaches the test range and gradually buy the coin you need to accumulate
Wait until 4 PM to come back and check if the bottom has formed 🤷🤷🤷

$BCH probably lies among the few coins still riding the upward wave.
Monthly timeframe forms a large cup handle. Weekly timeframe shows a small cup handle, currently showing signs of breakout.
To hold on, wait for the weekly candle to close above 700; for safety, wait for the monthly candle to close above 700 to complete the large monthly cup handle, then buy and hold for medium-term position 🤔🤔🤔
Looking at the larger chart, it appears quite bullish.
Adding this one to the trading list, seems suitable

$RENDER yesterday it increased to 2.5$ but I saw that during the test the price dropped, so I was really tempted. This one is also 1.2B
I'll wait until the weekly candle closes above 2.8$ to buy after the back test is done. For now, the price is still in a downtrend consolidation, nothing is clear yet.
But I'll still keep this one on my list, just in case it breaks out, I can still get in quick 🤔🤔🤔

$SPK I just discovered something quite interesting 🤣🤣🤣
It turns out it's still running a head and shoulders pattern, but the diagonal head and shoulders, not the horizontal one. This was my oversight; I guess I was a bit too casual, and I need to be more meticulous. If I had noticed earlier, I could have identified a better buying zone 🤷🤷🤷
This one seems to like running a diagonal head and shoulders pattern 🤔🤔🤔 The daily timeframe already showed a diagonal head and shoulders pattern before breaking the structure. Now the H1 timeframe is doing the same.

$SPK installed 254 at thinking about creating head and shoulders. But it went all the way down to 250 test of the H6 candle.
Luckily I still have USDT, so I entered again at 251. Probably the test will be stable enough now.
Short-term target at strong resistance 29-30

$SPK to install 254 check if it comes back creating an inverted head shoulder pattern like this 🤔🤔🤔

$SPK about having only 248 left. Still a bit of USDT not matched, but the H4 and H1 timeframes already show signs of reversal @@
Anyway, let's wait until 7 PM to close the H12 candle and see what happens. If needed, we can enter after it tests the H6 and H12 timeframes anyway 🤷🤷🤷

I think the worst part is trading the coin I'm currently holding. I don't know about others, but maybe it's because I'm not skilled enough to avoid getting confused.
Even though I've clearly separated two accounts already—one for buying and holding, and another for trading. But because I'm trading the coin I'm holding, I'm experiencing internal conflict. It's like trading requires clear stop-loss points and a defined risk-reward ratio, whereas holding involves wider entry zones and distant targets. Right now, I'm mixing up the mindset between holding and trading when trading on this account. The trading account is being operated with a holding mindset.
I know that if I don't fix this, I'd still make profits, since I could switch this account to short-term holding. But I don't want to do that—it feels like I'm just tolerating my own mistakes. Maybe I'll just trade coins I'm not holding in this account. It's not that I don't want to improve myself or want to make trading and holding my current coin more effective. After all, I study the charts of the coins I'm holding more often, so I'm better at reading them. But for now, I'll gradually work on improving this.

On a positive note, I've identified the gap in my approach. I need to improve it. After using futures for shorting over a month, I think my mindset has been somewhat affected. That's why the issue has resurfaced when trading spot again.
Perhaps after this, I'll stop using futures altogether and only short on margin if needed. Futures are marked-to-market, with percentages calculated at 0.1$ 0.1%, and profits and other metrics constantly changing second by second. Looking at this too much can make people accustomed to haste and short-term thinking.

$XPL break zone 205, currently backtesting so I bought the trade to sell at the 23 resistance zone