Zero-sum Gamer
400 Posts
Zero-sum Gamer
Zero, algotrader.
I develop trading bots for crypto exchanges. In this blog, I’ll share my experience: screeners, bots, algorithms
👉@Pro_Crypto_Resources
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📊 Market Median / 05.07.2026
30m slice: RegDev +6.03%, above SMA200 67.66%, Median RSI 42.87. Regime: local correction has already started. The market is still above baseline, breadth is strong, but momentum has dropped below 50.
What to do: do not chase broad longs. Priority is protecting existing longs and waiting for a pullback. New longs need momentum reclaim first. Local shorts are valid if BTC loses the range.
Long trigger: BTC holds the range, Median RSI reclaims 50, and breadth stays above 60–65%.
Short trigger: BTC loses the range, Median RSI stays below 45, and breadth falls below 60%.
Conclusion: this is not a market breakdown, but cooling inside a still-strong structure. While RSI stays below 50, the higher-probability path is local correction or sideways pullback. Better to take longs after confirmation, not while momentum is fading.
#MarketSentimentToday #analysis $VANRY $OGN $BIRB
30m slice: RegDev +6.03%, above SMA200 67.66%, Median RSI 42.87. Regime: local correction has already started. The market is still above baseline, breadth is strong, but momentum has dropped below 50.
What to do: do not chase broad longs. Priority is protecting existing longs and waiting for a pullback. New longs need momentum reclaim first. Local shorts are valid if BTC loses the range.
Long trigger: BTC holds the range, Median RSI reclaims 50, and breadth stays above 60–65%.
Short trigger: BTC loses the range, Median RSI stays below 45, and breadth falls below 60%.
Conclusion: this is not a market breakdown, but cooling inside a still-strong structure. While RSI stays below 50, the higher-probability path is local correction or sideways pullback. Better to take longs after confirmation, not while momentum is fading.
#MarketSentimentToday #analysis $VANRY $OGN $BIRB
⚡️ Truflation vs CPI: Why This Matters for Crypto
Warsh is pushing a bigger idea than just another Fed speech.
The old model waits for official inflation reports. The new model wants faster economic real-time inflation, private data sources, market-based signals, income, spending, employment, energy and yields.
That matters because official CPI can still show overheating while faster inflation data is already cooling.
❌ Official CPI: still above 4%
✅ Truflation: below 2% in late June
Same economy. Different speed of measurement.
For traders, this is not just about inflation. It is about how fast the market can reprice the Fed path.
If the Fed starts taking faster data more seriously, the market may move before the official CPI fully catches up:
— lower inflation pressure can reduce fear of higher rates;
— yields can start cooling earlier;
— the dollar can lose momentum;
— Nasdaq and crypto can get a better risk backdrop;
— Bitcoin can react before the macro narrative becomes obvious.
But this is not a blind long signal.
Truflation below CPI is only a market-regime filter. It needs confirmation from yields, the dollar, liquidity, Nasdaq and Bitcoin structure.
📌 The key point:
Markets do not trade past inflation.
Markets trade future liquidity.
If faster inflation data keeps cooling while official CPI stays sticky, the next big macro debate will be about whether the Fed is looking at the economy too late.
#cpi #Fed #Inflation $BTC $SOL $ETH
Warsh is pushing a bigger idea than just another Fed speech.
The old model waits for official inflation reports. The new model wants faster economic real-time inflation, private data sources, market-based signals, income, spending, employment, energy and yields.
That matters because official CPI can still show overheating while faster inflation data is already cooling.
❌ Official CPI: still above 4%
✅ Truflation: below 2% in late June
Same economy. Different speed of measurement.
For traders, this is not just about inflation. It is about how fast the market can reprice the Fed path.
If the Fed starts taking faster data more seriously, the market may move before the official CPI fully catches up:
— lower inflation pressure can reduce fear of higher rates;
— yields can start cooling earlier;
— the dollar can lose momentum;
— Nasdaq and crypto can get a better risk backdrop;
— Bitcoin can react before the macro narrative becomes obvious.
But this is not a blind long signal.
Truflation below CPI is only a market-regime filter. It needs confirmation from yields, the dollar, liquidity, Nasdaq and Bitcoin structure.
📌 The key point:
Markets do not trade past inflation.
Markets trade future liquidity.
If faster inflation data keeps cooling while official CPI stays sticky, the next big macro debate will be about whether the Fed is looking at the economy too late.
#cpi #Fed #Inflation $BTC $SOL $ETH
Warsh puts inflation math back on the table
On July 1, Warsh said inflation risks have come down.
The Fed is not cutting rates yet, but markets are already leaning into a softer path. Early risk-on usually starts this way: expectations move before the actual policy move.
⚙️ What the Fed is reviewing
After the June 17 FOMC, Warsh talked about reviewing how the Fed reads the economy and inflation.
On the table: Fed projections, market communication, data collection, inflation frameworks, and the way inflation itself is measured.
Old surveys, national accounts, and delayed data are losing value in a 2026 economy. The Fed wants more real-time data, private sources, and better analytical tools.
📉 Official May CPI: 4.2%
Truflation on June 30: 1.91%
Old data still shows heat. Faster data already shows cooling.
🧭 Why markets care
The Fed no longer wants to pre-commit on the next rate move: hold, cut, or hike.
The decision will be built closer to the meeting, using fresh inflation, expectations, labor market, oil, dollar, and yields.
If the new approach shows lower inflation risk, markets will price rate cuts faster.
📌 Next checkpoints
July 14 — Warsh in Congress
July 28–29 — FOMC
For crypto, this is about the dollar, yields, and liquidity.
BTC reads the shift in expectations first. Alts follow only if the risk bid holds.
#fomc #warsh #cpi #truflation $BTC $ETH $SOL
On July 1, Warsh said inflation risks have come down.
The Fed is not cutting rates yet, but markets are already leaning into a softer path. Early risk-on usually starts this way: expectations move before the actual policy move.
⚙️ What the Fed is reviewing
After the June 17 FOMC, Warsh talked about reviewing how the Fed reads the economy and inflation.
On the table: Fed projections, market communication, data collection, inflation frameworks, and the way inflation itself is measured.
Old surveys, national accounts, and delayed data are losing value in a 2026 economy. The Fed wants more real-time data, private sources, and better analytical tools.
📉 Official May CPI: 4.2%
Truflation on June 30: 1.91%
Old data still shows heat. Faster data already shows cooling.
🧭 Why markets care
The Fed no longer wants to pre-commit on the next rate move: hold, cut, or hike.
The decision will be built closer to the meeting, using fresh inflation, expectations, labor market, oil, dollar, and yields.
If the new approach shows lower inflation risk, markets will price rate cuts faster.
📌 Next checkpoints
July 14 — Warsh in Congress
July 28–29 — FOMC
For crypto, this is about the dollar, yields, and liquidity.
BTC reads the shift in expectations first. Alts follow only if the risk bid holds.
#fomc #warsh #cpi #truflation $BTC $ETH $SOL
📊 Market Median / 01.07.2026
30m slice: RegDev -0.13%, above SMA200 44.79%, Median RSI 52.40. Regime: the market is near baseline, momentum is above 50, but breadth is still not enough for clean risk-on.
Key detail: BTC’s overnight drop into the $57–58k zone did not push Market Median deeply negative because the regression baseline itself is already sloping down. So “near zero” here does not mean market strength — it means price is trading near a bearish baseline path.
What to do: do not switch on broad longs yet. The higher-probability path for the next few hours is selective long in stronger coins if BTC holds the range. Weak alts stay off the table.
Long trigger: BTC holds the range, Median RSI stays above 50, and breadth expands above 50%.
Short trigger: BTC presses lows again, Median RSI drops below 50, and breadth falls below 40–45%.
Conclusion: Market Median does not look catastrophic now, but that comes from the 1000-candle 30m rolling window and the declining regression baseline. The market is not strong; it is trading near its current falling norm. Working mode: careful selective long only in strong coins, no broad alt loading.
#MarketSentimentToday #analysis $DYDX $BASED
$ZBT
30m slice: RegDev -0.13%, above SMA200 44.79%, Median RSI 52.40. Regime: the market is near baseline, momentum is above 50, but breadth is still not enough for clean risk-on.
Key detail: BTC’s overnight drop into the $57–58k zone did not push Market Median deeply negative because the regression baseline itself is already sloping down. So “near zero” here does not mean market strength — it means price is trading near a bearish baseline path.
What to do: do not switch on broad longs yet. The higher-probability path for the next few hours is selective long in stronger coins if BTC holds the range. Weak alts stay off the table.
Long trigger: BTC holds the range, Median RSI stays above 50, and breadth expands above 50%.
Short trigger: BTC presses lows again, Median RSI drops below 50, and breadth falls below 40–45%.
Conclusion: Market Median does not look catastrophic now, but that comes from the 1000-candle 30m rolling window and the declining regression baseline. The market is not strong; it is trading near its current falling norm. Working mode: careful selective long only in strong coins, no broad alt loading.
#MarketSentimentToday #analysis $DYDX $BASED
$ZBT
📊 Market Median / 30.06.2026
30m slice: RegDev -0.92%, above SMA200 53.73%, Median RSI 47.15. Regime: the market is almost back to baseline, breadth is already workable, but momentum is still below 50. This is recovery, not full risk-on.
What to do: do not switch on broad longs yet. The higher-probability path for the next few hours is selective long in stronger coins if BTC holds the range. With month-end, quarter-end and half-year close today, sharp moves remain more likely than usual.
Long trigger: BTC holds the range, Median RSI reclaims 50, and breadth stays above 50%.
Short trigger: BTC loses the range, Median RSI stays below 50, and breadth falls below 45–50%.
Conclusion: breadth has improved, but momentum has not confirmed broad longs yet. Working mode: selective trades in stronger coins, not aggressive broad market loading.
#MarketSentimentToday #analysis $CLO $TAIKO $BICO
30m slice: RegDev -0.92%, above SMA200 53.73%, Median RSI 47.15. Regime: the market is almost back to baseline, breadth is already workable, but momentum is still below 50. This is recovery, not full risk-on.
What to do: do not switch on broad longs yet. The higher-probability path for the next few hours is selective long in stronger coins if BTC holds the range. With month-end, quarter-end and half-year close today, sharp moves remain more likely than usual.
Long trigger: BTC holds the range, Median RSI reclaims 50, and breadth stays above 50%.
Short trigger: BTC loses the range, Median RSI stays below 50, and breadth falls below 45–50%.
Conclusion: breadth has improved, but momentum has not confirmed broad longs yet. Working mode: selective trades in stronger coins, not aggressive broad market loading.
#MarketSentimentToday #analysis $CLO $TAIKO $BICO
#saylorhintsstrategybitcoinbuy
🧨 Real-Life Trap Radar: Saylor Bait
On June 28, Saylor posted the Bitcoin tracker again, and the market quickly treated it as a bullish trigger: Strategy may buy more BTC, so traders try to front-run it with longs.
But the numbers tell a colder story.
Strategy sold roughly $335.5M worth of MSTR shares, used about $34.9M to buy 520 BTC, and kept the rest in cash. Its cash reserve increased to $1.4B.
📌 That is not “every spare dollar into Bitcoin at any price.”
That is liquidity management: cash reserve, balance-sheet protection, dividends, debt, and room for future decisions.
Are they waiting for lower prices? No proof. But the behavior is cautious. When a company sells hundreds of millions in stock and puts only a small part into BTC, that is not aggressive accumulation. That is keeping room to move.
🎯 The trap is in the headline.
The crowd sees: “Saylor is buying Bitcoin.”
Traders should watch something else: where the capital actually went.
⚠️ If open interest rises after the hype, funding heats up, and spot demand does not follow, that is not real strength.
That is liquidity for the other side of the trade.
#Saylor #long #dump $BTC $ETH $SOL
🧨 Real-Life Trap Radar: Saylor Bait
On June 28, Saylor posted the Bitcoin tracker again, and the market quickly treated it as a bullish trigger: Strategy may buy more BTC, so traders try to front-run it with longs.
But the numbers tell a colder story.
Strategy sold roughly $335.5M worth of MSTR shares, used about $34.9M to buy 520 BTC, and kept the rest in cash. Its cash reserve increased to $1.4B.
📌 That is not “every spare dollar into Bitcoin at any price.”
That is liquidity management: cash reserve, balance-sheet protection, dividends, debt, and room for future decisions.
Are they waiting for lower prices? No proof. But the behavior is cautious. When a company sells hundreds of millions in stock and puts only a small part into BTC, that is not aggressive accumulation. That is keeping room to move.
🎯 The trap is in the headline.
The crowd sees: “Saylor is buying Bitcoin.”
Traders should watch something else: where the capital actually went.
⚠️ If open interest rises after the hype, funding heats up, and spot demand does not follow, that is not real strength.
That is liquidity for the other side of the trade.
#Saylor #long #dump $BTC $ETH $SOL
🧾 Grayscale Highlights Crypto Projects With Real Revenue
Grayscale showed a top-15 list of crypto projects with the highest protocol revenue over the last 12 months, ranked together with market-cap-to-revenue multiples ahead of the possible CLARITY Act vote.
The top names:
$HYPE — $871M revenue, 15x multiple
$PUMP — $459M, 1x
$CAKE — $322M, 1x
$SKY — $248M, 5x
$JUP — $130M, 6x
📊 Where the market may reprice
When regulatory fog starts to clear, capital usually looks at cleaner metrics: revenue, fees, demand stability, sector strength, liquidity.
A low multiple does not automatically mean the token is cheap. It means the market is still pricing the protocol conservatively relative to current revenue.
⚠️ Where traders can get trapped
$UNI trades around 37x with $49M in revenue.
$PUMP , $CAKE, $MET, and $CARDS are close to 1x.
That gap is massive, but the market does not pay only for past revenue. It pays for growth expectations, tokenomics, liquidity, sector risk, and the ability to keep volume.
What I would watch
Do not buy the list blindly.
Watch where volume appears after the news, where open interest starts building, where price holds pullbacks, where funding is not overheated, and where liquidity actually follows.
A strong coin does not have to move immediately after a table like this. Very often the market first builds a position, tests liquidity, and only then shows direction.
CLARITY Act could become a fresh repricing catalyst for DeFi and revenue-generating protocols. The trade is still in the reaction: price, volume, OI, funding, and liquidity will show where capital is really moving.
#Spot #invest #CLARITYAct
Grayscale showed a top-15 list of crypto projects with the highest protocol revenue over the last 12 months, ranked together with market-cap-to-revenue multiples ahead of the possible CLARITY Act vote.
The top names:
$HYPE — $871M revenue, 15x multiple
$PUMP — $459M, 1x
$CAKE — $322M, 1x
$SKY — $248M, 5x
$JUP — $130M, 6x
📊 Where the market may reprice
When regulatory fog starts to clear, capital usually looks at cleaner metrics: revenue, fees, demand stability, sector strength, liquidity.
A low multiple does not automatically mean the token is cheap. It means the market is still pricing the protocol conservatively relative to current revenue.
⚠️ Where traders can get trapped
$UNI trades around 37x with $49M in revenue.
$PUMP , $CAKE, $MET, and $CARDS are close to 1x.
That gap is massive, but the market does not pay only for past revenue. It pays for growth expectations, tokenomics, liquidity, sector risk, and the ability to keep volume.
What I would watch
Do not buy the list blindly.
Watch where volume appears after the news, where open interest starts building, where price holds pullbacks, where funding is not overheated, and where liquidity actually follows.
A strong coin does not have to move immediately after a table like this. Very often the market first builds a position, tests liquidity, and only then shows direction.
CLARITY Act could become a fresh repricing catalyst for DeFi and revenue-generating protocols. The trade is still in the reaction: price, volume, OI, funding, and liquidity will show where capital is really moving.
#Spot #invest #CLARITYAct
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