hamada Zyky

📉 BTC — second consecutive bearish month
$BTC started June at $73,500 and closed at $59,000 📉 a brutal -19.7% on the month. Two consecutive months of heavy losses — May -12%, June nearly -20%.
October 2025 all-time high of $126,200, $BTC is now down -53%. The worst part — the Iran peace deal was signed this month and it didn't save the market. The macro took over as the dominant driver. 😶
🏦 ETF — bleeding all month
June was another month of institutional exit. Week 1 alone saw -$4.4B over 13 consecutive days — the longest streak since ETF launch. Week 4 added another -$1.79B. Total June outflows sit near -$6B — the worst monthly outflow in ETF history. Cumulative 2026 flows are now firmly negative. YTD the market has given back everything institutions put in since January. 🚨
📉 June ETF outflows: approximately -$6B — worst month ever
🔴 2026 cumulative flows: firmly negative for first time
🔴 13 consecutive outflow days — historic record
🔴 Whale accumulation stalled — no big buyers absorbing the selling
🟡 Only bright spot: Morgan Stanley MSBT launched with +$10.43M
😱 fear & greed — from fear to extreme fear
June started with Fear & Greed at 25 — fear and closed at 16 — extreme fear 😱 Despite the Iran peace deal being signed, sentiment kept deteriorating all month. The market has been conditioned by four failed ceasefires — it doesn't believe good news anymore until proven durable. And now with rate hike probabilities rising, there is nothing left to be optimistic about short term. 👁
📉 macro — the new dominant force
With the Iran war over, macro became the new enemy of BTC in June. Three data points defined the month 👇
🌡 CPI (May): 4.2% YoY — highest in 3 years, in line but accelerating
🏭 PPI (May): 6.5% YoY — highest since Nov 2022, broke all relief
📈 PCE (May): in line — still well above 2% Fed target
📈 GDP: strong — economy not weak enough to force Fed cuts
💵 DXY: gaining strength — dollar up, pressure on all risk assets
🚨 Rate HIKE probability July: 36% — conversation shifted from cuts to hikes
The economic paradox of June — strong GDP with sticky inflation is the worst possible combination for $BTC . The Fed has no reason to cut and every reason to hike. 9 out of 18 Fed members now believe 2% inflation won't be reached until 2028. The macro headwind is structural, not temporary. 🧠
🏛 fomc — warsh's first meeting
Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Rates held at 3.50–3.75%. The dot plot revealed deep division — half the Fed sees no path to 2% inflation before 2028. Warsh acknowledged the Iran deal as a positive but made clear the Fed needs months of post-Hormuz data before changing course. His tone was measured but hawkish. July 29 is the next FOMC — and the market is now pricing a possible hike. 👀
🕊 iran — peace deal signed, but market ignored it
The most historic event of June — and the market barely reacted. The formal US-Iran peace agreement was signed on June 19 in Switzerland 🇨🇭 Hormuz fully reopened, US naval blockade lifted, ships moving freely. Oil dropped from $107 to $83/barrel — a major relief.
But the June 19 Switzerland technical talks were cancelled at the last minute. Iran demanded Israel cease operations in Lebanon first. The nuclear program remains unresolved — deferred to future negotiations. The 60-day window has started. And after four failed ceasefires, the market priced the peace deal with only a modest +4% reaction — burned too many times to celebrate. 👁
✅ Peace deal signed — June 19, Switzerland 🇨🇭
✅ Hormuz: fully open — 25+ verified crossings daily
📉 Oil: $107 → $83/barrel on the month
⚠️ Nuclear program: deferred — not resolved
⚠️ $BTC reaction: only +4% — market priced the risk, not the relief
📅 60-day negotiation window: started — watch August
🔑 june in one look
$BTC 📉 $73,500 → $59,000 (-19.7%) — second red month 🚨
🏦 ETF ~-$6B — worst monthly outflow in ETF history
😱 Fear & Greed 16 — extreme fear, close to all-time lows
🌡 CPI 4.2% · PPI 6.5% · PCE above target — inflation dominant
🚨 Rate HIKE probability: 36% for July — biggest risk
🕊 Peace deal signed ✅ · Hormuz open ✅ · Oil $83 ✅
💵 DXY rising · GDP strong · Fed divided · Macro wins
June was the month the Iran war ended — and the market found a new enemy. Macro is now the dominant driver. The peace deal removed the geopolitical premium but exposed the underlying structural weakness — inflation too high, Fed possibly hiking, institutions exiting, sentiment at extreme fear. The recovery needs two things: inflation cooling post-Hormuz, and ETF flows reversing. #iran #PeaceDeal l#fomc #Inflation #dyor

📉 $BTC — the drop continues
BTC opened the week near $63K and closed at $59K 📉 another painful week. The market is now down -36.6% year on year and -26.8% year to date. No real bounce, no conviction. Just relentless slow pressure from every direction. The $59K zone is now the last meaningful support before $55K opens up. 👁️
🏦 ETF — institutions still exiting
Another week of heavy outflows — -$1.79B this week alone 😬 Cumulative 2026 net outflows have now reached $3.1B, with YTD flows firmly negative. Whale accumulation has stalled, resulting in fewer large bids to absorb ETF-driven supply during redemptions — meaning every ETF outflow now moves price more than it used to. The one lonely positive — Morgan Stanley's newly launched MSBT ETF attracted $10.43M in inflows — a new player entering while the veterans exit. 👀
📉 Weekly outflows: -$1.79B
🔴 2026 cumulative outflows: -$3.1B — YTD firmly negative
🔴 Whale accumulation stalled — no big buyers absorbing the selling
🟡 Morgan Stanley MSBT: +$10.43M — new entrant buying the dip
😱 fear & greed — extreme fear at 16
Fear & Greed dropped to 16 — extreme fear 😱 We are close to the historic lows we saw at the worst of the Iran war. Despite the peace deal, the market does not feel safe. Institutions are leaving, macro is hostile, and the Fed is now talking about rate hikes — not cuts. That combination pushes sentiment to levels that historically mark either capitulation bottoms or the beginning of deeper pain. 😬
📉 macro — strong economy, bad for $BTC
The data paradox of the week — both PCE and GDP came in solid, and that is actually terrible for BTC 👇
🌡️ PCE: came in as expected — still well above 2% target
📈 GDP: strong — economy holding up better than feared
💵 DXY: gaining strength — dollar up = pressure on all risk assets
⚠️ Strong economy + sticky inflation = Fed has zero reason to cut
🚨 CME FedWatch: 36% probability of a rate HIKE at July meeting
That last point is the most important one. CME FedWatch now puts the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting at roughly 36%, with markets pricing at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end. The conversation has shifted from "when will the Fed cut" to "will the Fed hike." For BTC that is the worst possible macro backdrop. 🧠
🕊️ iran — peace deal signed, but complications remain
The formal signing of the US-Iran peace agreement took place in Switzerland on June 19, 2026, with an immediate halt to military operations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Ships are moving again. Oil dropped to $83/barrel — a significant fall from the $125 peak. But the relief is not translating into BTC recovery because the macro picture has now taken over from the geopolitical picture as the dominant driver. 👁️
The nuclear program remains unresolved — deferred to future talks. Iran's new Supreme Leader has already complicated the implementation timeline. The 60-day negotiation window has started. The market is pricing lower risk, not zero risk — a quick oil rebound would show traders still fear renewed disruption. 😬
✅ Peace agreement formally signed — Switzerland June 19
✅ Strait of Hormuz open — ships moving freely
📉 Oil: $83/barrel — down sharply from $125 peak
⚠️ Nuclear program: unresolved — deferred to future talks
⚠️ Hormuz supply risk has not fully disappeared — market pricing lower risk, not zero
🔑 week in short
$BTC 📉 $63K → $59K — -26.8% YTD, -36.6% YoY
🏦 ETF -$1.79B — institutions still exiting 🚨
😱 Fear & Greed 16 — extreme fear
🌡️ PCE in line · GDP strong · DXY rising — all bad for $BTC
🚨 Rate HIKE probability: 36% for July — conversation shifted
🕊️ Peace deal signed ✅ · Hormuz open ✅ · Oil $83 ✅
⚠️ Macro now the dominant driver — geopolitics fading
The Iran war is over — but the market does not care. The new enemy is the macro environment. A durable recovery will require a meaningful shift in at least one driver: geopolitical de-escalation ✅ done, a dovish FOMC surprise, or a sustained reversal of ETF outflows. Two out of three still need to turn. Watch $59K — it is the last line before $55K. 🎯
#SaylorHintsStrategyBitcoinBuy #dyor #OilReclaims$70 #BitcoinSpotETFsPost$1.79BOutflows #USIranAgreeToHaltAttacks

📊 $BTC — range week, market not convinced
$BTC opened at $63K and closed at $63,500 — practically unchanged 😐 A full week of noise, historic events and macro data — and the market went nowhere. That flat action in itself is a message — despite the Iran deal and FOMC, conviction is missing on both sides. No one is aggressively buying or selling. The market is waiting. 👀
🏛 fomc — warsh's first meeting, rates on hold
Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair this week. Rates held at 3.50–3.75% — no surprise. But the dot plot told the real story 👇
9 out of 18 Fed members now believe the 2% inflation target will not be reached until 2028 — two full years away. The Fed is increasingly divided on the path forward. Warsh acknowledged the Iran deal as a positive development for energy prices but said the Fed needs months of data before changing course. No cuts coming anytime soon. 😬
🏛 Rates held: 3.50–3.75% — Warsh's first decision
📊 9/18 members: 2% inflation target not until 2028
🌡 Inflation forecast: 3.75–3.80% for remainder of 2026
✂️ Rate cuts: not imminent — Fed needs months of post-Iran data
💬 Warsh: "Iran deal is positive — but inflation data must confirm"
😰 fear & greed — still in fear despite peace deal
Despite the Iran MOU and Hormuz reopening — Fear & Greed sits at 25 — fear territory 😬 The market is not celebrating. Three failed ceasefires have taught investors not to price in peace until it is proven durable. Sentiment is risk-off and fragile. The peace deal bought hope — not confidence. Not yet. 👁
🕊 iran — mou signed but talks already complicated
The US and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding — an initial framework, not a final peace agreement — setting out a 60-day ceasefire period during which further talks will address Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and the possible release of up to $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
But the June 19 Switzerland technical talks were cancelled at the last minute 😬 Iran demanded a guarantee that Israel would cease its fight in Lebanon against Hezbollah before proceeding — the meeting was nixed even though the MOU signing had set the clock ticking on the 60-day negotiation window. Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei authorized the MOU but warned that future direct negotiations "will not mean accepting the enemy's point of view." 👀
✅ MOU signed — 60-day negotiation window officially started
✅ Hormuz: verified 25 crossings on June 17 — "notable increase in maritime activity"
❌ June 19 Switzerland talks: cancelled — Iran demanded Lebanon ceasefire first
⚠️ Nuclear program: unresolved — enrichment levels still contested
⚠️ US and Iranian interpretations diverge on implementation details already
📅 Next 60 days: make or break for a permanent deal
🛢 hormuz open — but inflation won't cool overnight
The Strait of Hormuz is now open — ships are moving again. Verified crossings reached 25 on June 17, with traffic evenly distributed across both directions and no physical attacks confirmed since May 10. Oil has dropped but inflation won't respond immediately — energy takes 6–8 weeks to fully flow through to consumer prices. The Fed needs 2–3 months of post-Hormuz CPI data before it can even consider cutting. That's the timeline. 🧠
🔑 week in short
$BTC 📊 $63K → $63,500 — range, no conviction
😰 Fear & Greed 25 — fear, market not celebrating yet
🏛 FOMC: rates held — 9/18 members say 2% not until 2028
🌡 Inflation staying 3.75–3.80% rest of 2026
🕊 MOU signed ✅ but June 19 talks cancelled ❌
🛢 Hormuz open — but inflation relief 2–3 months away
The peace deal is real — but the market is right to be cautious. Three previous ceasefires all failed. The June 19 talks already hit a wall. And the Fed is telling us clearly — even with Hormuz open, inflation will not cool fast enough to cut rates in 2026. The next catalyst is 2–3 months of post-Hormuz CPI data. Until then — patience is the trade. 🎯
#Warsh
Iran #Hormuz #Inflation

📈 $BTC — strong recovery week
$BTC opened the week at $61K and closed at $65,500 🚀 a solid +7.4% bounce after the brutal crash the week before. This is a two-week high — the market is breathing again, even if cautiously. 👀
🏦 ETF — outflows then a turnaround on Friday
Most of the week continued the bleeding — -$316M in outflows over the first four days, extending the recent negative streak. But Friday changed everything — +$85.9M in net inflows, ending a 5-day outflow streak with the strongest single-day inflow figure in roughly 4 weeks 🟢 BlackRock and Fidelity led the comeback, signaling renewed institutional interest right as the Iran news broke.
🌡️ CPI — in line, but higher than last month
CPI came in exactly as the market expected — no surprise, no panic. But the annual rate accelerated to 4.2%, up from 3.8% the month before — the fastest pace in more than three years. No improvement, inflation still running hot. 😐
🏭 PPI — breaks the relief, the real warning
The day after CPI, PPI hit hard. Producer prices rose 1.1% MoM — well above the 0.7% forecast — pushing the annual rate to 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. Nearly 80% of the increase came from energy, with wholesale gasoline up over 23% in a single month. This is the pipeline — what shows up in PPI today shows up in CPI next month. 🚨
🌡️ CPI: 4.2% YoY — in line, but up from 3.8%
🏭 PPI: 6.5% YoY — highest since Nov 2022, beat forecast
⛽ Wholesale gasoline: +23% in one month
⚠️ Talk shifting from "when will the Fed cut" to "could it hike"
The reflexive bull case after CPI was that the shock is narrow — strip out energy and core inflation looks tolerable. PPI complicated that story. The pipeline is loaded with energy-driven pressure, and that pressure is heading toward consumers next. 🧠
🕊️ iran — the biggest news of the week
This is the story that changes everything. Trump authorized the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on June 14, and a formal signing ceremony for a peace deal is set for June 19 in Switzerland 🇨🇭 WTI crude dropped roughly 3.2% to $84.88/barrel on the news — the lowest level in weeks.
🕊️ Hormuz reopening authorized by Trump
📅 Peace deal signing ceremony: June 19, Switzerland
🛢️ WTI dropped -3.2% to $84.88/barrel
📈 Lower oil = lower inflation pressure = better case for risk assets
⚠️ Deal not signed yet — durability still to be confirmed
Lower energy prices reduce inflation pressure and improve the broader macro case for $BTC and risk assets. This is the most consequential potential catalyst of the entire conflict — if the signing on June 19 goes through cleanly. 👀
🔑 week in short
BTC 📈 $61K → $65,500 (+7.4%) — two-week high
🏦 ETF -$316M then +$85.9M Friday — streak broken ✅
🌡️ CPI 4.2% — in line but accelerating
🏭 PPI 6.5% — highest since Nov 2022, hot 🚨
🕊️ Iran — Hormuz reopening authorized, signing June 19
🛢️ Oil $84.88 — sharp drop on peace deal news
A week of two stories pulling in opposite directions — inflation data getting worse (CPI + PPI), but the Iran situation potentially resolving for the first time in 100+ days. If the June 19 signing holds, oil keeps dropping and the inflation picture could finally start improving. FOMC June 16-17 comes first — and now it happens with much better news on the table. Watch both dates closely. 🎯
#etf #cpi #USIranDealConfirmed #DYOR* #PPI