bitcoindropmarketimpact

Alright, let's do this exactly like before.

Bitcoin is at $70,000 right now.

But there's a big problem underneath the price.

A major profit signal is getting weak.

I'm talking about the Realized Profit and Loss Ratio.

This metric shows if people are taking more profits or more losses.

Right now, it's falling fast and is very close to the neutral line.

This means profit taking is drying up.

And more losses are hitting the market during sell-offs.

This tells us the market is under stress.

But it's controlled stress.

We are not in a full panic sell-off yet.

When this ratio breaks below one, that is the sign of true capitulation.

We are not there.

But liquidity is very thin.

This means even small sell orders can move the price a lot.

Now let's look at two other important signals.

First is the MVRV Z-Score.

This tells us how much profit the average holder has.

It has dropped to its lowest level since late 2022.

This is a major reset.

It means most people holding Bitcoin are not sitting on big paper profits anymore.

That big cushion of gains is gone.

This can actually stop panic selling because there's less profit to protect.

But it also means people need real conviction to hold.

There is no safety net.

The second signal is the NVT Golden Cross.

This compares Bitcoin's price to its network activity.

It has turned very negative.

This means the economic activity on the Bitcoin network is weak right now.

The price is not being supported by real usage.

This explains why every price bounce struggles to continue.

The fundamental strength is not there yet.

Finally, look at the exchange reserves.

Bitcoin is constantly moving off exchanges into private wallets.

This is the most important point.

People are not selling aggressively.

They are taking their coins and holding them.

This is absorption.

It reduces the supply that can be sold.

But here is the final result.

With coins leaving and liquidity so thin, the market is fragile.

Small amounts of buying or selling cause big price swings.

We get sharp crashes and fast pumps.

Lots of volatility but no clear direction.

So what is the bottom line?

We are in a compression phase.

The market is resetting and searching for balance.

This is not a crash.

It is a grind.

For the price to move up strongly, we need to see network activity and real demand come back.

Until then, expect more choppy and volatile price action at these levels.

Watch that Profit and Loss Ratio.

If it breaks below one and stays there, a bigger drop could be coming.

If it holds and coins keep leaving exchanges, then the foundation for the next move is being built quietly.

That is the situation right now.
$BTC
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