CryptoQuant Quicktake

Whales have recently been accumulating heavily, driving their realized price higher.

Their realized priceis 1.56k at June, has risen to around 3k.

The reason for whales' accumulation is clear. They are accumulating in preparation for a bull market, and their realized price is their psychological Maginot Line.

They are still buying, and as long as they continue to do so, it will be difficult to break the realized price line.

Written by CW8900

This 30-day LTH distribution spike is one of the largest in the last 5 years, and these usually show up near macro tops, not bottoms.

• LTH supply is rolling over from record highs

• Spot trades well above LTH realized price

• Old coins are locking in big profits, not capitulating

Takeaway: this looks like late-cycle distribution and de-risking, not fresh accumulation.

Adjust your risk, not your hope.

Written by IT Tech

Bitcoin’s recent price decline from the ~88.2K area toward ~86K offers a clean on-chain signal about who applied selling pressure and how healthy that pressure actually was. Exchange inflow data segmented by Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) confirms that this move was not driven by structural distribution.

On December 15, when BTC traded near 88.2K, Short-Term Holders sent roughly 24.7K BTC to exchanges. Critically, 86.8% of this supply was realized in profit, while only 13.2% was sold at a loss. In dollar terms, profitable STH inflows exceeded $1.89B, dwarfing loss-realizing volume. This indicates that sellers were primarily near-term buyers exiting from strength, not from fear.

As price declined further on December 16 toward ~86K, total STH inflow collapsed to just ~3.9K BTC. While this flow was realized at a loss, its absolute size was small, signaling exhaustion rather than escalation of sell pressure. Loss realization increased in percentage terms, but not in volume terms — a key distinction often missed in surface-level analysis.

Long-Term Holders tell an even clearer story. Across both days, LTH inflows were muted, falling from ~326 BTC to just ~50 BTC. There is no evidence of LTH capitulation, panic, or meaningful profit distribution. This cohort remained largely inactive despite the drawdown, reinforcing the view that long-term conviction remains intact.

The takeaway is decisive: recent downside was driven by STH profit-taking, not LTH distribution, and loss-driven selling remains historically low. From an on-chain market structure perspective, this is constructive. It reflects reduced leverage stress, healthier holder composition, and a market that is cooling without breaking — a setup more consistent with consolidation than with a bearish regime shift.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Ahead of the previous FOMC meeting, Bitcoin staged a rebound on expectations of rate cuts. During the same period, however, open interest declined, creating a clear divergence. This suggests that the rally was driven primarily by spot demand rather than derivatives positioning. The episode once again highlights that a sustainable uptrend in Bitcoin typically requires not only stronger spot demand but also a simultaneous expansion in open interest.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s price declined yesterday while open interest increased. Alongside rising funding rates, this indicates that traders continued to add long exposure even as prices moved lower. When open interest rises during a price pullback, it signals growing risk appetite and an increase in speculative positioning despite unfavorable price action. If this pattern persists, it may serve as an early indication of a potential short-term trend reversal.

That said, the market is heading into a week packed with major macroeconomic events, including U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, CPI, PCE, and the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. In this environment, macroeconomic data releases are likely to have a greater influence on short-term market volatility than Bitcoin’s internal market metrics. Ultimately, the direction of Bitcoin and broader risk assets will depend on whether expectations for U.S. rate cuts remain intact or begin to weaken.

Written by MAC_D

Today’s decline in Bitcoin’s price was driven less by spot market selling and more by forced liquidations in the derivatives market. As shown in the chart, sharp price drops coincide with spikes in long liquidations, indicating that the move was largely liquidation-led.

The root cause lies in the buildup of highly leveraged long positions in futures markets. When price falls below key levels, these positions breach maintenance margin requirements and are forcibly closed. These liquidations execute as market sell orders, adding sudden selling pressure and pushing the price even lower.

Crucially, liquidations are not just a consequence of falling prices — they act as an amplifier. Even a modest initial decline can trigger a cascade of forced selling, where one liquidation leads to another. The liquidation spikes seen in the latter part of the chart clearly visualize this chain reaction.

In this context, the current move should be viewed less as a collapse in fundamental demand and more as a structural deleveraging event. Once the bulk of leveraged positions are flushed out, price action often stabilizes. The next key question for the market is how much leverage has already been cleared — and whether the system is now in a healthier, more balanced state.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Ethereum (ETH) network data indicates a significant decline in network activity in recent days The Active Sending Addresses indicator has dropped sharply to approximately 169,958 active sending addresses, the lowest level since 2023 This decline reflects a noticeable decrease in the number of users sending transactions on the network, indicating weaker day-to-day activity and reduced real usage compared to previous phases of the market cycle.

Historically, such low levels of active addresses often occur during periods of stagnation and uncertainty, as investors prefer to minimize activity and wait for clearer price direction before reactivating their wallets. This behavior also suggests that organic demand for using the Ethereum network—whether for trading, transfers, or interaction with decentralized applications (dApps)—is experiencing a clear lull.

In parallel, Exchange Inflow (Total) data on Binance shows a significant decrease in Ethereum inflows to the platform. On December 13, daily inflows to Binance fell to around 109,309 ETH, marking one of the lowest levels recorded in recent months, compared with previous peaks that exceeded 900,000 ETH last August. This decline reflects reduced investor appetite for moving assets onto exchanges, implying lower immediate selling pressure.

Notably, this drop in Ethereum inflows to Binance coincides with the price trading near $3,060, suggesting that the market is not currently experiencing a widespread sell-off, but rather a period of relative stagnation in buying and selling decisions. This behavior is often interpreted as a repositioning and waiting phase, in which investors monitor upcoming catalysts rather than engage in impulsive moves.

Written by Arab Chain

• BlackRock - Ethereum (ETHA):

At the beginning of the year, ETHA held 1,071,415 ETH (USD 3.6B at the time).

Currently, it holds 3,686,398 ETH (USD 11B), representing an increase of over 300% in a single year.

Recently, the firm filed a registration statement to create a new Ethereum ETF, but with staking offered as a service. As a result, if approved, BlackRock would have two ETH ETFs: one with staking and one without.

Sources:

1) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2099103/000143774925037057/iset20251205_s1.htm

2) https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/ways-to-invest-in-ethereum

• BlackRock - Bitcoin (IBIT):

During 2024, a total of 551,917 BTC were accumulated through BlackRock’s ETF. By the end of that year, these holdings represented USD 50B.

The latest available data shows that IBIT currently holds 777,484 BTC (USD 70B), implying an additional accumulation of 228,978 BTC (USD 20B).

Therefore, this year, fewer BTC were acquired via BlackRock’s ETF than in 2024.

Written by _OnChain

Whether on the spot market or in futures, trading volumes across altcoins have been shrinking significantly over the past few months, and XRP is no exception. Liquidity is gradually drying up across the altcoin segment, reflecting a clear pullback from traders and investors when it comes to riskier assets.

The Taker Buy Volume on Binance, which represents buy order volumes on futures contracts, has fallen to its lowest levels. After peaking above $5.8B in July, it has now dropped to around $250M. This represents a decline of roughly 95.7% over the period, a massive collapse that clearly illustrates the evaporation of buying pressure on XRP.

The broader market context obviously does not help. Liquidations have been piling up, confidence remains fragile, and many investors are still deeply affected by the October 10 event.

On top of that, altcoins are facing a structural headwind. Bitcoin continues to absorb the vast majority of available liquidity, leaving very little room for a sustainable recovery across the rest of the market.

Under these conditions, such a sharp decline in XRP’s Taker Buy Volume is not surprising. The signal is even more meaningful given that it is occurring on Binance, which still concentrates the largest share of global trading volumes.

At the same time, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio, which compares buy and sell order volumes, has remained negative for almost the entire period, indicating that sellers are dominating the XRP derivatives market.

Historically, phases of such strong volume compression often end with a resurgence in volatility. However, in the current setup, the available data is clearly not in XRP’s favor. The lack of meaningful buying pressure, combined with a dominant bearish bias in derivatives, opens the door to a potentially deeper correction.Even the arrival of ETFs, which are usually seen as a positive catalyst, has not been enough to support XRP price.

Written by Darkfost

Metric: Exchange Netflow (USD) – 7D Moving Average

A clear accumulation trend has emerged for major DeFi and infrastructure assets on Binance over the past week. Analysis of the 7-day token netflow (USD) indicates substantial withdrawals from the exchange, signaling a potential reduction in sell-side pressure.

Key On-Chain Insights:

Massive Outflows for UNI and LINK:

The data shows pronounced negative netflows for Uniswap (UNI) and Chainlink (LINK). Approximately 9.5 million UNI and 9 million LINK have exited Binance exchange wallets within the last seven days.

Interpretation:

Large exchange outflows typically suggest that whales and institutional participants are moving assets into cold storage or DeFi protocols. This behavior is consistent with a long-term holding strategy and indicates limited willingness to sell at current price levels.

Supply Shock Potential:

The removal of more than $18.5 million worth of UNI and LINK from exchange order books reduces immediately available sell-side liquidity. If demand remains stable or increases, this contraction in supply could act as a bullish catalyst in the short to medium term.

Divergence from the Broader Market:

While assets such as CRV are experiencing net inflows—often associated with rising sell pressure—the strong and sustained outflows in UNI and LINK distinguish them from peers and highlight elevated interest from smart money.

Conclusion:

The market structure for UNI and LINK is transitioning toward accumulation. Continued monitoring is warranted; if these outflows persist, a supply-driven upward repricing becomes increasingly probable.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Total Bitcoin inflows to exchanges are increasing, but this rise alone does not signal aggressive selling. BTC is entering exchanges without immediate distribution pressure, suggesting that the impact on price remains controlled and spread over time.

The most active inflow ranges are 0.1-1 BTC and 1-10 BTC, largely driven by retail investors taking profits and short term traders. These flows create only limited selling pressure in the spot market. As long as liquidity stays strong, sharp sell offs are unlikely. While upward moves tend to face resistance, price generally finds support on pullbacks, leading to a downward sloping consolidation rather than a breakdown.

The 10-100 BTC band, representing a transition zone between retail and smart money, shows frequent but irregular inflow spikes. The lack of consistency prevents sustained selling pressure, resulting in volatile but controlled retracements instead of sharp declines.

Larger holders in the 100-1K BTC and 1K+ BTC ranges are not showing persistent inflows, indicating that whales are not aggressively distributing. Post ETF, large one off sell offs are less likely, as institutional investors tend to accumulate rather than liquidate.

Overall, even within a bearish trend, price action remains orderly rather than crash like. Unless 1K+ BTC inflows become sustained, Bitcoin is likely to continue its sideways to downward movement until a cycle bottom is established.

Written by PelinayPA

Since October 30, 2025, Bitcoin has been trading below the Short-Term Holders’ (STH) realized price of $104K, placing the most recent market participants under sustained loss pressure. This cohort, highly sensitive to price movements, often defines short-term market dynamics, making its behavior particularly relevant in the current context.

STH are addresses that have held BTC for less than 155 days. Their profitability is assessed using the STH MVRV, a metric that measures unrealized gains or losses by comparing the current market price with the average acquisition price of this group. When MVRV falls below 1, it indicates that STH are holding unrealized losses (see chart).

Currently, STH MVRV ranges between 0.87 and 0.90, confirming that recent buyers are underwater. At the same time, Bitcoin is trading around $89,500, clearly below the STH realized price, which sits near $104K. This gap highlights a significant divergence between the market price and the short-term capital cost basis.

In parallel, Realized Profit & Loss data shows that since October 30, STH exiting the market have been realizing losses. The average High Loss is around -12.6%, pointing to an active capitulation process rather than a passive holding phase.

From an on-chain perspective, the combination of unrealized and realized losses suggests that market rebounds are being used to reduce exposure, not to accumulate. Since mid-November, Bitcoin has remained largely range-bound around the $90,000 level, while short-term capital continues to experience sustained pressure.

Conclusion:

Historically, prolonged periods in which STH remain at a loss tend to coincide with weak-hand cleansing phases and supply transfer toward higher-conviction holders.

As long as Bitcoin fails to reclaim the STH realized price near $104,000, market conditions are likely to remain uncomfortable for recent entrants, a structure more consistent with a transitional phase than with a bearish market.

By Carmelo Alemán

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

Data on the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) for XRP on Binance indicates a continued decline to approximately 0.18, one of the lowest levels recorded during the current period, coinciding with the price trading near $2.00.

This sharp drop in the ELR suggests a decrease in traders’ reliance on leverage, implying that a significant portion of funded positions has been closed or reduced. This behavior typically occurs after periods of heightened volatility or price corrections, as the market tends to reduce risk and readjust open positions. Structurally, a decline in leverage is considered a sign of reduced market fragility, as it lowers the likelihood of forced liquidations triggered by sudden price movements.

Interestingly, this decline in leverage has coincided with a downward trend in XRP’s price compared to its previous levels above $3.00. This synchronicity suggests that the price decline was not driven by the accumulation of highly leveraged positions, but rather by the unwinding of such positions. Historically, environments like this often represent transitional phases, during which the market shifts from active speculation to a calmer phase focused on rebalancing.

Furthermore, the stabilization of the ELR at relatively low levels could pave the way for more sustainable price movements in the future, provided liquidity gradually returns to the derivatives market without excessive leverage. In other words, any future rally under conditions of low leverage would be less likely to reverse sharply.

Overall, the Estimated Leverage Ratio reading of 0.18 reflects a clear sense of caution in the XRP market on Binance, indicating that the market is still repositioning itself and building a more balanced base before determining its next major direction, whether it resumes its upward trend or enters a prolonged consolidation phase.

Written by Arab Chain

Recent Bitcoin exchange netflow data reveals a clear imbalance shaping the current market. Over the past seven days, most major exchanges have seen notable BTC outflows, a classic on-chain signal of accumulation. Kraken alone recorded more than 6,000 BTC in net outflows, with whale withdrawals exceeding 7,000 BTC. Coinbase Advanced, Bybit, OKX, and Bitfinex show the same pattern, confirming that large holders are moving Bitcoin off exchanges despite ongoing price weakness.

Binance, however, tells a different story. While the broader exchange ecosystem is in accumulation mode, Binance posted around 1,900 BTC in net inflows, with whale net inflows above 5,300 BTC. This matters because Binance is the largest Bitcoin liquidity hub, where user and whale behavior often has an outsized impact on short-term price action. When Bitcoin is being deposited on Binance, even as other exchanges see outflows, overall market strength can remain muted.

This data suggests that the current Bitcoin weakness is not driven by widespread selling, but by concentrated supply pressure on Binance. Historically, stronger market conditions tend to follow when Binance netflows turn negative and whale activity shifts toward accumulation. When that happens, accumulation trends across other exchanges usually align, reducing available supply and supporting a healthier market structure.

Tracking Binance Bitcoin flows and whale behavior therefore remains one of the most important on-chain indicators for understanding when accumulation across exchanges can translate into a broader market recovery.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The Bitcoin SMA7 SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR) has plunged to 1.29, marking its lowest level since the beginning of 2024 and extending the recent reset trend.

This sharp drop signals that short-term holders (STH) are realizing heavy losses relative to long-term holders (LTH), who are largely holding firm and spending minimal profits (or even losses).

Historically, such extreme lows in the ratio have coincided with major capitulation phases for speculative participants – often clearing out weak hands and setting the stage for a market rebound.

With BTC consolidating around $89,000–$90,000 after the pullback from $126K highs, this on-chain metric suggests the worst of the STH selling pressure may be behind us.

Past instances of SOPR Ratio below 1.5 have frequently preceded bullish reversals as conviction returns.

Is this the final shakeout before the next leg up? Watch for a ratio rebound above 2 as a potential confirmation of renewed strength.

Written by NovAnalytica

On-chain data reveals a massive “freefall” in USDC exchange reserves, signaling a significant reallocation of capital by large market participants since late November.

Key Data Points

Market-Wide Decline:

Total USDC reserves across all centralized exchanges (CEXs) have dropped sharply from $14B on November 24 to $9B today, representing an approximate 35% reduction in available stablecoin liquidity on exchanges.

Binance Leads the Outflow:

As the holder of more than 50% of total exchange USDC reserves, Binance is the primary driver of this trend. Its USDC balance has declined from $7.7B to $5.28B over the same period.

Analyst’s Take

This aggressive $5B outflow in less than one month sends a strong market signal and can be interpreted in two bullish ways:

Capital Deployment (Spot Buying):

Declining exchange reserves often indicate that “dry powder” previously sitting on exchanges has been converted into crypto assets such as BTC or ETH, with funds subsequently settled off-exchange.

Migration to DeFi:

Capital may be moving on-chain to participate in DeFi protocols and yield strategies, reflecting a risk-on environment in which investors prefer active capital utilization over passive holding on centralized exchanges.

Conclusion

The rapid depletion of USDC exchange reserves—particularly on Binance—suggests the market is shifting from a “waiting” phase to an “active deployment” phase, with capital being put to work rather than remaining parked on exchanges.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Data from Binance indicates that Bitcoin is going through a sensitive period, reflecting a clear shift in derivatives trading behavior over recent months. The Z-Score is currently at approximately -0.28, a slightly negative but meaningful reading in terms of the market’s position within its current cycle. This indicator, which combines open interest and funding rates and measures their deviation from the historical average, serves as a precise tool for identifying periods of excessive risk or gradual contraction.

Previous periods in which the Z-Score reached strongly positive levels coincided with sharp increases in Bitcoin’s price, reflecting the market’s reliance on high-cost, leveraged derivative positions and a clear rise in speculative activity. Historically, such levels have often preceded corrections or slowdowns, driven by elevated volatility and heightened sensitivity to sudden trend reversals.

The current reading of -0.28 suggests that open interest and funding rates are now slightly below their historical averages, reflecting a state of caution and a reduced appetite for leverage. This zone is not classified as a panic phase or a forced sell-off, but rather represents a reset period following excessive activity, during which high-risk positions are gradually unwound and the market seeks to rebalance.

Notably, this negative reading has coincided with Bitcoin trading near the $90,000 level, indicating that the recent price decline was not driven by rising derivatives pressure, but instead by its easing. This behavior is considered relatively healthy, as it lowers the probability of sharp corrections caused by mass liquidations.

Written by Arab Chain

The price is falling ahead of the market. The most recent reaction was positive, but other indicators are not doing well.

Written by Crypto_Lion

There is no demand. The situation remains extremely difficult.

Written by Crypto_Lion

The fundamentals were strong, whale intervened, and BTC showed strength during the decline. It is currently recovering from the decline.

Written by Crypto_Lion

At first glance, Bitcoin’s price action appears calm. However, on-chain data suggests a growing structural risk beneath the surface. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has turned red, indicating a clear slowdown in capital movement between exchanges.

IFP measures how actively Bitcoin moves from one exchange to another, serving as a proxy for internal market liquidity and capital circulation. When IFP is high, arbitrage and liquidity provision function smoothly, order books remain thick, and price movements tend to be more stable. When IFP declines, market “blood flow” weakens, making prices more sensitive to relatively small trades.

This deterioration in liquidity is occurring alongside historically low exchange balances. While limited sellable supply can support prices, it also results in thinner order books. Once price begins to move in one direction, slippage increases and volatility accelerates. With leverage still elevated, instability is driven less by direction and more by magnitude.

Historically, periods when IFP turned red were not defined by orderly trends but by sharp corrections and sudden price swings. The key risk today is not aggressive selling, but structural fragility. Until liquidity recovers, markets are more likely to experience abrupt moves, making leveraged positioning especially vulnerable in the current environment.

XWIN Research Japan

(https://xwin.finance/)

Written by XWIN Research Japan