ALISHBA SOZAR
Building knowledge in crypto & blockchain | Research-driven insights | Web3 • DeFi • Digital assets | X:TG @Alishbasozar
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#Bitcoin is at 76k and you idiots are here talking about ''ai agent coins''? strategy's average buy price is breached, he is basically dead. #Ethereum is down below $2000. and you guys are talking about ''the next narrative'' and which ''ai agent'' is going to pump next? go get a f**king job. oh right, you can't. ai has already replaced you. ''bnkr meta''? when was the last time you had a genuine conversation with a loved one? your family? your friends? wake the f*ck up. #Crypto is dead forever and never coming back. next time I hear this TL talk about ''clawd meta'' or ''ai agents autonomously talking on ai reddit'' I am removing all of you. your parents and friends are concerned. sorry for the harsh tone but somebody has to say what needs to be said.
#Alishba_Sozar
#Alishba_Sozar
PINNED
"Disappearing for 6 months" is literally the dumbest thing you can do. You will lose most of your contacts, lose leverage across the board, and slowly become irrelevant. People will learn to live without you; that's what humans do. They adapt. And then, when you return, they will perhaps be happy, but you will be demoted to a short 'novelty'. If you truly want to change, do it without the unnecessary disappearing. You're not a ghost.
#Alishba_Sozar
#Alishba_Sozar
Another day to repost a piece that I’m certain my new followers need!
Alot of people slide into my DMs asking things like:
“How can I flip $10 into $100?”
“How do I turn $10 into $1,000?”
“How do I buy Solana?”
“How do I trade degens?”
My honest advice? 👇
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You don’t know what you’re doing.
That’s not trading, that’s gambling.
Knowledge isn’t optional here, without it, the market will humble you.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You’re using money you can’t afford to lose.
This game is about liquidity and if you’re new, you are the liquidity. 💸
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You think DYOR is just a hashtag.
Following hype, influencers, or pumps without understanding the project?
You’re not early, you’re exit liquidity.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You trade based on emotion.
Panic selling, FOMO buying, chasing green candles that’s how bags are born.
Control your emotions, or the market will control your balance.
▫️Don’t trade degens if:
You think it’s easy money.
If you believe it’s a shortcut to wealth, you’ve already become someone else’s shortcut.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
Your entire strategy is copying others.
Signals and group calls might make you feel smart, until they don’t.
No edge, no independence, no wins.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You ignore risk management.
No stop-loss, no plan, no discipline = no future.
One bad trade can erase months of effort.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You can’t stay patient.
Chasing pumps is how you end up holding the bag.
The real ones wait for setups, not hype.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You don’t learn from mistakes.
Every loss is a lesson. If you’re not tracking, reviewing, and improving, you’re doomed to repeat the same cycle.
Trading degens isn’t about luck.
It’s about knowledge, patience, and discipline.
Survive first. Profit later.
▫️The goal isn’t to win fast, it’s to stay profitable in the game.
#Alishba_Sozar
$SOL $BTC $BNB
Alot of people slide into my DMs asking things like:
“How can I flip $10 into $100?”
“How do I turn $10 into $1,000?”
“How do I buy Solana?”
“How do I trade degens?”
My honest advice? 👇
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You don’t know what you’re doing.
That’s not trading, that’s gambling.
Knowledge isn’t optional here, without it, the market will humble you.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You’re using money you can’t afford to lose.
This game is about liquidity and if you’re new, you are the liquidity. 💸
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You think DYOR is just a hashtag.
Following hype, influencers, or pumps without understanding the project?
You’re not early, you’re exit liquidity.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You trade based on emotion.
Panic selling, FOMO buying, chasing green candles that’s how bags are born.
Control your emotions, or the market will control your balance.
▫️Don’t trade degens if:
You think it’s easy money.
If you believe it’s a shortcut to wealth, you’ve already become someone else’s shortcut.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
Your entire strategy is copying others.
Signals and group calls might make you feel smart, until they don’t.
No edge, no independence, no wins.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You ignore risk management.
No stop-loss, no plan, no discipline = no future.
One bad trade can erase months of effort.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You can’t stay patient.
Chasing pumps is how you end up holding the bag.
The real ones wait for setups, not hype.
▫️Don’t trade degen if:
You don’t learn from mistakes.
Every loss is a lesson. If you’re not tracking, reviewing, and improving, you’re doomed to repeat the same cycle.
Trading degens isn’t about luck.
It’s about knowledge, patience, and discipline.
Survive first. Profit later.
▫️The goal isn’t to win fast, it’s to stay profitable in the game.
#Alishba_Sozar
$SOL $BTC $BNB
Love Binance or hate it, facts are facts.
Binance is still the biggest CEX in the world.
If Binance collapses like FTX, the entire crypto market collapses with it.
Not 2x worse. Not 10x worse.
Possibly 100x worse.
Seeing ETH below $500 or SOL below $10 would be a reality
They control too much of the market.
So what do we choose?
Accept manipulation and survive with CZ Binance and let 10/10 repeat
Or burn everything to zero in the name of justice and freedom
What would you choose?
#Alishba_Sozar
$BNB
Binance is still the biggest CEX in the world.
If Binance collapses like FTX, the entire crypto market collapses with it.
Not 2x worse. Not 10x worse.
Possibly 100x worse.
Seeing ETH below $500 or SOL below $10 would be a reality
They control too much of the market.
So what do we choose?
Accept manipulation and survive with CZ Binance and let 10/10 repeat
Or burn everything to zero in the name of justice and freedom
What would you choose?
#Alishba_Sozar
$BNB
Questions You Should Ask Your AI
1. What is an Egyptian pyramid doing on a US dollar bill?
2. Why did 56 countries sign a treaty not to take risks and enter Antarctica?
3. Why do planes never fly over Antarctica?
4. How did NASA "lose" the photos of the moon landing, one of the most important moments for humanity?
5. If Neil Armstrong was the first to walk on the moon, who held the camera?
6. Why haven't we gone back to the moon?
7. If monkeys evolved into humans, why are there still monkeys?
8. Why does 95% of our DNA exist as "junk"? Who decided it was actually "garbage"?
9. How were huge, symmetrical, detailed, sacred, and geometrically regular structures such as cathedrals and parliamentary buildings created by people who lived in log cabins, rode horse-drawn carriages, and had no machines or lasers?
10. How is it that similar pre-Columbian architecture is found all over the world?
11. Why are there images in ancient Egyptian art that resemble "spaceships"?
12. Why were remains and images of giant people found? And why do different ancient scriptures from various cultures, including the Bible, talk about giants?
13. Why are there images of mushrooms in ancient Christian art? And why does the Pope dress up like a giant Amanita muscaria mushroom?
14. Why do ancient Egyptian artworks show jaws, and is it a coincidence that the pineal gland resembles jaws?
15. Why are there descriptions of dragons all over the world and in different cultures, thousands of years apart, and also mentioned in the Bible?
16. Why is there so much blatant satanic symbolism in the music and entertainment industry?
17. Why do most video games revolve around killing?
18. How is it possible that movies and cartoons like The Simpsons can predict certain cultural events so accurately?
19. How do forest fires melt cars but leave trees intact?
20. What is the national debt? If there is a borrower, there must also be a lender: who is it?
21. How is it that the so-called "national debt" has increased despite tax increases? Where does the taxpayer's money go?
22. Why is alcohol and tobacco poisoning considered "normal" and referred to simply as "drinking" and "smoking"?
23. Why are alcohol
and tobacco shown in almost all shows and movies?
24. How do news presenters around the world and on various channels say and repeat the same script word for word?
25. If we are more progressive and informed than ever before, why do we have the highest rates of obesity, cancer, and heart disease, not to mention depression?
Feel free to contribute any additional questions you may have..
#Alishba_Sozar
2. Why did 56 countries sign a treaty not to take risks and enter Antarctica?
3. Why do planes never fly over Antarctica?
4. How did NASA "lose" the photos of the moon landing, one of the most important moments for humanity?
5. If Neil Armstrong was the first to walk on the moon, who held the camera?
6. Why haven't we gone back to the moon?
7. If monkeys evolved into humans, why are there still monkeys?
8. Why does 95% of our DNA exist as "junk"? Who decided it was actually "garbage"?
9. How were huge, symmetrical, detailed, sacred, and geometrically regular structures such as cathedrals and parliamentary buildings created by people who lived in log cabins, rode horse-drawn carriages, and had no machines or lasers?
10. How is it that similar pre-Columbian architecture is found all over the world?
11. Why are there images in ancient Egyptian art that resemble "spaceships"?
12. Why were remains and images of giant people found? And why do different ancient scriptures from various cultures, including the Bible, talk about giants?
13. Why are there images of mushrooms in ancient Christian art? And why does the Pope dress up like a giant Amanita muscaria mushroom?
14. Why do ancient Egyptian artworks show jaws, and is it a coincidence that the pineal gland resembles jaws?
15. Why are there descriptions of dragons all over the world and in different cultures, thousands of years apart, and also mentioned in the Bible?
16. Why is there so much blatant satanic symbolism in the music and entertainment industry?
17. Why do most video games revolve around killing?
18. How is it possible that movies and cartoons like The Simpsons can predict certain cultural events so accurately?
19. How do forest fires melt cars but leave trees intact?
20. What is the national debt? If there is a borrower, there must also be a lender: who is it?
21. How is it that the so-called "national debt" has increased despite tax increases? Where does the taxpayer's money go?
22. Why is alcohol and tobacco poisoning considered "normal" and referred to simply as "drinking" and "smoking"?
23. Why are alcohol
and tobacco shown in almost all shows and movies?
24. How do news presenters around the world and on various channels say and repeat the same script word for word?
25. If we are more progressive and informed than ever before, why do we have the highest rates of obesity, cancer, and heart disease, not to mention depression?
Feel free to contribute any additional questions you may have..
#Alishba_Sozar
BREAKING: Michael Burry warns Bitcoin’s decline will wipe out significant value for companies holding large amounts on their balance sheet.
He says $BTC has failed as a safe haven like gold and behaves more like a volatile stock tied to the S&P 500. Aggressive holders face bankruptcy risk as it continues to fall, potentially triggering broader market turmoil.
He says $BTC has failed as a safe haven like gold and behaves more like a volatile stock tied to the S&P 500. Aggressive holders face bankruptcy risk as it continues to fall, potentially triggering broader market turmoil.
once again, always learn to do your own research.
- go to Reddit, search for the name of the founder of the project you're bullish on, you'll definitely find one or two.
search for the name of the project too.
- use rootdata!
- use rootdata!
- once again, use rootdata!
you can get so many info from here.
- go to telegram, search for Rick bot, with this format (/twit - then you insert the projects handle).
it'll show you past handles and even the tokens that it has shilled before.
although most times, it's not always guaranteed, but it's useful to a very large extent.
the bot look like this btw
you're welcome.
#Alishba_Sozar
$BNB
- go to Reddit, search for the name of the founder of the project you're bullish on, you'll definitely find one or two.
search for the name of the project too.
- use rootdata!
- use rootdata!
- once again, use rootdata!
you can get so many info from here.
- go to telegram, search for Rick bot, with this format (/twit - then you insert the projects handle).
it'll show you past handles and even the tokens that it has shilled before.
although most times, it's not always guaranteed, but it's useful to a very large extent.
the bot look like this btw
you're welcome.
#Alishba_Sozar
$BNB
The hardest part of this journey isn't the losses
It's explaining to people why you're still trying
"You're still doing that crypto thing?"
Yeah
Because I've seen what's possible
I've watched normal people change their entire lives from one good trade
And I know it's only a matter of time before I'm one of them
They don't have to understand. They just have to watch
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC
It's explaining to people why you're still trying
"You're still doing that crypto thing?"
Yeah
Because I've seen what's possible
I've watched normal people change their entire lives from one good trade
And I know it's only a matter of time before I'm one of them
They don't have to understand. They just have to watch
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC
#Ethereum sell panic vs reality 🚨
People keep saying “Vitalik is dumping ETH”
Onchain data says the opposite
Here’s what actually happened:
First, Vitalik.
In the last weeks Vitalik moved 17,088 ETH (~$47M).
- 16,384 ETH sent to a multisig used to fund open source projects
- 704 ETH actually sold around $1.6M for charity and operational needs
704 ETH sold.
That’s less than 0.3% of his holdings.
Vitalik still holds 235,000+ ETH.
Now let’s see what Tom Lee and BitMine are buying
January alone:
- Jan 13, 24,266 ETH bought
- Jan 26, 40,302 ETH bought (~$117M)
- Late Jan / early Feb, 41,788 ETH bought (~$110M)
Total recent buys:
117,000+ ETH ~$340M
BitMine now holds:
- 4.28 million ETH
- 3.55% of total ETH supply
- Over 2.3M ETH staked
- Generating ~$160M+ per year in yield
Even more insane:
They’re doing this while having $6.6B unrealized losses.
They’re still buying.
Now compare both flows.
- Vitalik real selling: 704 ETH
- BitMine buying: 117,000 ETH
That’s 60x more ETH being bought than sold.
This is literally:
- founder reinvesting into the ecosystem
- institutions accumulating at scale..
$ETH
People keep saying “Vitalik is dumping ETH”
Onchain data says the opposite
Here’s what actually happened:
First, Vitalik.
In the last weeks Vitalik moved 17,088 ETH (~$47M).
- 16,384 ETH sent to a multisig used to fund open source projects
- 704 ETH actually sold around $1.6M for charity and operational needs
704 ETH sold.
That’s less than 0.3% of his holdings.
Vitalik still holds 235,000+ ETH.
Now let’s see what Tom Lee and BitMine are buying
January alone:
- Jan 13, 24,266 ETH bought
- Jan 26, 40,302 ETH bought (~$117M)
- Late Jan / early Feb, 41,788 ETH bought (~$110M)
Total recent buys:
117,000+ ETH ~$340M
BitMine now holds:
- 4.28 million ETH
- 3.55% of total ETH supply
- Over 2.3M ETH staked
- Generating ~$160M+ per year in yield
Even more insane:
They’re doing this while having $6.6B unrealized losses.
They’re still buying.
Now compare both flows.
- Vitalik real selling: 704 ETH
- BitMine buying: 117,000 ETH
That’s 60x more ETH being bought than sold.
This is literally:
- founder reinvesting into the ecosystem
- institutions accumulating at scale..
$ETH
Alishba Prediction:
1. Bitcoin will break the lows of 75k.
2. Bitcoin will fall towards $60k-$65k
3. Everyone will think Bitcoin is dead.
4. Really smart investors will buy this dip.
5. Bitcoin dips one last time and even the smart investors wonder if they've gone insane.
6. The smart investors also sell.
7. Bitcoin bottoms.
8. The psychopaths buy Bitcoin.
9. Bitcoin rallies to $250k next cycle.
10. The ONES THAT STAYED GET RICH
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC
1. Bitcoin will break the lows of 75k.
2. Bitcoin will fall towards $60k-$65k
3. Everyone will think Bitcoin is dead.
4. Really smart investors will buy this dip.
5. Bitcoin dips one last time and even the smart investors wonder if they've gone insane.
6. The smart investors also sell.
7. Bitcoin bottoms.
8. The psychopaths buy Bitcoin.
9. Bitcoin rallies to $250k next cycle.
10. The ONES THAT STAYED GET RICH
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC
Vitalik
I’m starting realize that Vitalik was miles ahead of the rest of the industry when he prophesied that highly financialized crypto products have a hard ceiling on value.
Everyone is bullish HYPE rn, and there’s probably good upside potential there for traders. But how much upside realistically?
Let’s say HL becomes wildly successful. It’s mcap would probably trade at some modest multiple of the NASDAQ (~$55B), for arguments sake, let’s say 3x.
That would translate to a hefty $165B dollar HYPE valuation. Thats about a 4-5x price increase from its current level. And that’s on the most optimistic scenario.
Or a more reasonable comparison would be to that of present day Robinhood (~$80B mcap), which is a mere 2x from HYPE’s current Val. Again, this is in a very optimistic scenario.
The reason for this capped upside is that financial applications are but a small part of societal utility. The largest companies in the world sell goods and services unrelated to finance.
Google - An internet and digital products conglomerate - nothing to do with finance
Nvidia - chipmaker - nothing to do with finance
Meta - social media monopoly - nothing to do with finance
Tesla - EV maker / robotics company - nothing to do with finance
SpaceX - aerospace company - nothing to do with finance
EliLilly - pharma company - nothing to do with finance
Apple - computer and smart phone producer - nothing to do with finance
The list goes on and on and on.
For crypto to level up from here, we need to begin building non-financial (or semi-financial) use cases that are enhanced by decentralization.
Money and Finance were the proof of concept for crypto, but we need to begin venturing outside of that bubble.
If you peer hard enough, you’ll realize that Vitalik was 1000% right when he said that indexing too much on finance will make crypto an ouroboros.
That’s not to say that DeFi is small potatoes.
Quite the contrary, I think DeFi will eventually enable finance to grow much larger than its present day size.
But that doesn’t mean it’s wise to make DeFi the only onchain use case.
The leap doesn’t have to be too foreign either, imo the crypto industry as a whole can grow big time simply by combining the best of what we have in DeFi right now to create semi-financial super apps.
The lowest hanging fruit here is decentralized social media with some financial gamification built in.
Other more futuristic applications that are far above my pay grade would be zk-proven LLMs that use crypto-economics for verifiable compute.
But we need to begin building in these directions.
Failing to do so means the upside for all of us will remain severely capped.
A 5x isn’t cool.
You know what’s cool? 500x.
The year of the tail eating snake is over.
The year of the conquering Horse is here.
Time for crypto to stop eating its own tail and begin conquering uncharted territory outside of money and finance.
#VitalikSells #Alishba_Sozar
Everyone is bullish HYPE rn, and there’s probably good upside potential there for traders. But how much upside realistically?
Let’s say HL becomes wildly successful. It’s mcap would probably trade at some modest multiple of the NASDAQ (~$55B), for arguments sake, let’s say 3x.
That would translate to a hefty $165B dollar HYPE valuation. Thats about a 4-5x price increase from its current level. And that’s on the most optimistic scenario.
Or a more reasonable comparison would be to that of present day Robinhood (~$80B mcap), which is a mere 2x from HYPE’s current Val. Again, this is in a very optimistic scenario.
The reason for this capped upside is that financial applications are but a small part of societal utility. The largest companies in the world sell goods and services unrelated to finance.
Google - An internet and digital products conglomerate - nothing to do with finance
Nvidia - chipmaker - nothing to do with finance
Meta - social media monopoly - nothing to do with finance
Tesla - EV maker / robotics company - nothing to do with finance
SpaceX - aerospace company - nothing to do with finance
EliLilly - pharma company - nothing to do with finance
Apple - computer and smart phone producer - nothing to do with finance
The list goes on and on and on.
For crypto to level up from here, we need to begin building non-financial (or semi-financial) use cases that are enhanced by decentralization.
Money and Finance were the proof of concept for crypto, but we need to begin venturing outside of that bubble.
If you peer hard enough, you’ll realize that Vitalik was 1000% right when he said that indexing too much on finance will make crypto an ouroboros.
That’s not to say that DeFi is small potatoes.
Quite the contrary, I think DeFi will eventually enable finance to grow much larger than its present day size.
But that doesn’t mean it’s wise to make DeFi the only onchain use case.
The leap doesn’t have to be too foreign either, imo the crypto industry as a whole can grow big time simply by combining the best of what we have in DeFi right now to create semi-financial super apps.
The lowest hanging fruit here is decentralized social media with some financial gamification built in.
Other more futuristic applications that are far above my pay grade would be zk-proven LLMs that use crypto-economics for verifiable compute.
But we need to begin building in these directions.
Failing to do so means the upside for all of us will remain severely capped.
A 5x isn’t cool.
You know what’s cool? 500x.
The year of the tail eating snake is over.
The year of the conquering Horse is here.
Time for crypto to stop eating its own tail and begin conquering uncharted territory outside of money and finance.
#VitalikSells #Alishba_Sozar
Here's what nobody talks about:
Every time you KYC somewhere, you create a copy of your identity that you don't control.
That copy lives on a server you've never seen, managed by people you've never met, protected by security you can't verify.
And when it leaks - not if, when - you find out on Twitter like everyone else.
Equifax leaked 147 million people. Ledger leaked 270,000. Every major exchange has had "incidents."
But sure, let's upload another passport scan. For security.
#Alishba_Sozar
Every time you KYC somewhere, you create a copy of your identity that you don't control.
That copy lives on a server you've never seen, managed by people you've never met, protected by security you can't verify.
And when it leaks - not if, when - you find out on Twitter like everyone else.
Equifax leaked 147 million people. Ledger leaked 270,000. Every major exchange has had "incidents."
But sure, let's upload another passport scan. For security.
#Alishba_Sozar
🎙️ CRYPTO WITH COMMUNITY!
End
04 h 59 m 24 s
4.7k
0
🎙️ You Don’t Hate Crypto, You Hate Bad Crypto
End
02 h 48 m 40 s
2.7k
2
I analyzed 1,247 trading accounts to find out why 95% of traders lose money…
The results broke my brain.
It's not strategy. It's not psychology. It's not "the market is rigged."
It's one number that almost everyone gets backwards.
Here's what the data showed:
The losing traders had an AVERAGE win rate of 62%
The profitable traders had an AVERAGE win rate of 47%
Read that again. The losers won MORE often. And still lost money.
How is that possible?
Because win rate is the biggest lie in trading.
The losing traders:
- Won 62% of trades
- Average winner: $85
- Average loser: $147
- Net expectancy: -$0.23 per dollar risked
- Result: Slow death over 6-12 months
The profitable traders:
- Won 47% of trades
- Average winner: $312
- Average loser: $97
- Net expectancy: +$0.96 per dollar risked
- Result: Consistent growth forever
The losers cut winners early and let losers run.
The winners let winners run and cut losers fast.
Same setups. Same markets. Opposite results.
Why almost everyone gets this backwards:
Your brain is wired to avoid losses. It physically hurts to close a trade at -$100. So you hold, hoping it comes back.
Your brain is wired to lock in wins. It feels amazing to close a trade at +$50. So you take profit early, scared it'll reverse.
This is called "loss aversion" and it's been studied for 50 years. It's biological. Your ancestors who feared losses survived longer.
But in trading, it's financial suicide.
The fix:
You don't need a better strategy. You need to flip your risk/reward.
Stop taking setups where your target is the same distance as your stop loss. That's a coin flip minus fees.
Only take setups where your target is 3-4x your stop loss.
At 3:1 risk/reward, you can be wrong 65% of the time and still make money.
The math:
100 trades at 3:1 R:R with 40% win rate:
- 40 winners × $300 = $12,000
- 60 losers × $100 = $6,000
- Net profit: $6,000
100 trades at 1:1 R:R with 60% win rate:
- 60 winners × $100 = $6,000
- 40 losers × $100 = $4,000
- Net profit: $2,000 (minus fees = maybe break even)
The guy with the "worse" win rate made 3x more money.
Stop chasing win rate. Chase R:R.
The 5% who are profitable figured this out. The 95% are still posting 73% win rate screenshots while their accounts bleed dry.
#Alishba_Sozar
It's not strategy. It's not psychology. It's not "the market is rigged."
It's one number that almost everyone gets backwards.
Here's what the data showed:
The losing traders had an AVERAGE win rate of 62%
The profitable traders had an AVERAGE win rate of 47%
Read that again. The losers won MORE often. And still lost money.
How is that possible?
Because win rate is the biggest lie in trading.
The losing traders:
- Won 62% of trades
- Average winner: $85
- Average loser: $147
- Net expectancy: -$0.23 per dollar risked
- Result: Slow death over 6-12 months
The profitable traders:
- Won 47% of trades
- Average winner: $312
- Average loser: $97
- Net expectancy: +$0.96 per dollar risked
- Result: Consistent growth forever
The losers cut winners early and let losers run.
The winners let winners run and cut losers fast.
Same setups. Same markets. Opposite results.
Why almost everyone gets this backwards:
Your brain is wired to avoid losses. It physically hurts to close a trade at -$100. So you hold, hoping it comes back.
Your brain is wired to lock in wins. It feels amazing to close a trade at +$50. So you take profit early, scared it'll reverse.
This is called "loss aversion" and it's been studied for 50 years. It's biological. Your ancestors who feared losses survived longer.
But in trading, it's financial suicide.
The fix:
You don't need a better strategy. You need to flip your risk/reward.
Stop taking setups where your target is the same distance as your stop loss. That's a coin flip minus fees.
Only take setups where your target is 3-4x your stop loss.
At 3:1 risk/reward, you can be wrong 65% of the time and still make money.
The math:
100 trades at 3:1 R:R with 40% win rate:
- 40 winners × $300 = $12,000
- 60 losers × $100 = $6,000
- Net profit: $6,000
100 trades at 1:1 R:R with 60% win rate:
- 60 winners × $100 = $6,000
- 40 losers × $100 = $4,000
- Net profit: $2,000 (minus fees = maybe break even)
The guy with the "worse" win rate made 3x more money.
Stop chasing win rate. Chase R:R.
The 5% who are profitable figured this out. The 95% are still posting 73% win rate screenshots while their accounts bleed dry.
#Alishba_Sozar
We’re at the beginning of the greatest wealth transfer in human history.
2008 was nothing in comparison.
Most people have no idea what’s about to come.
#Alishba_Sozar
2008 was nothing in comparison.
Most people have no idea what’s about to come.
#Alishba_Sozar
the life of a crypto trader
- deposit $1k into wallet
- flip it to $5k
- lose the $5k in one trade
- learn technical analysis
- deposit $1k into wallet again
- lose the $1k in one trade
- buy courses
- watch first two lessons
- deposit $10k into wallet
- lose the $10k in one trade
- back to work
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC $ETH $BNB
- deposit $1k into wallet
- flip it to $5k
- lose the $5k in one trade
- learn technical analysis
- deposit $1k into wallet again
- lose the $1k in one trade
- buy courses
- watch first two lessons
- deposit $10k into wallet
- lose the $10k in one trade
- back to work
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC $ETH $BNB
Epstein connected to Satoshi Nakamoto or Bitcoin’s creation?
Was Jeffrey Epstein connected to Satoshi Nakamoto or Bitcoin’s creation?
Here’s what the evidence actually says:
First, why people even think Epstein could be Satoshi.
Epstein clearly had early financial exposure to crypto.
He invested in Blockstream in 2014, putting $500,000 into the company that employed Bitcoin Core developers.
He invested $3 million into Coinbase in its early days.
He donated around $850,000 to MIT over the years, with $525,000 going to the MIT Digital Currency Initiative
Which paid Bitcoin Core developers when the Bitcoin Foundation ran out of money.
He exchanged emails with Peter Thiel discussing what Bitcoin actually is
In 2016, he even said he had spoken to “some of the founders of Bitcoin”
Oh yeah, that looks suspicious.
But the arguments against Epstein being Satoshi are overwhelming.
Bitcoin launched in 2009.
Satoshi disappeared in 2011.
Epstein’s active involvement in crypto starts after 2011.
There is no evidence of Epstein discussing Bitcoin before it already existed.
Even worse for the theory:
Epstein was incarcerated during key periods of Bitcoin’s early development.
During the 2008–2009 window when Bitcoin was being designed, tested, and released, Epstein was not free.
But of course we also need to talk about Then the technical gap.
Satoshi’s writings show deep understanding of crypto, distributed systems, game theory, and computer science.
Epstein’s emails show none of that.
When Epstein talks about Bitcoin, he speaks like a financier.
He never discusses proof of work, difficulty adjustment, nodes, mining incentives, or attack vectors.
Completely different profiles.
The 2016 “founders of Bitcoin” email is a perfect example.
If Epstein actually knew Satoshi, or was Satoshi, this is not how that knowledge would appear.
Then there are fake emails.
A viral email supposedly from 2008 shows Epstein discussing “Project Bitcoin” with Ghislaine Maxwell.
That email is completely fake.
So what’s the conclusion?
Jeffrey Epstein was not Satoshi Nakamoto.
The probability is effectively zero.
What is true is that Epstein was closer to the early Bitcoin ecosystem than most people realized.
Here’s what the evidence actually says:
First, why people even think Epstein could be Satoshi.
Epstein clearly had early financial exposure to crypto.
He invested in Blockstream in 2014, putting $500,000 into the company that employed Bitcoin Core developers.
He invested $3 million into Coinbase in its early days.
He donated around $850,000 to MIT over the years, with $525,000 going to the MIT Digital Currency Initiative
Which paid Bitcoin Core developers when the Bitcoin Foundation ran out of money.
He exchanged emails with Peter Thiel discussing what Bitcoin actually is
In 2016, he even said he had spoken to “some of the founders of Bitcoin”
Oh yeah, that looks suspicious.
But the arguments against Epstein being Satoshi are overwhelming.
Bitcoin launched in 2009.
Satoshi disappeared in 2011.
Epstein’s active involvement in crypto starts after 2011.
There is no evidence of Epstein discussing Bitcoin before it already existed.
Even worse for the theory:
Epstein was incarcerated during key periods of Bitcoin’s early development.
During the 2008–2009 window when Bitcoin was being designed, tested, and released, Epstein was not free.
But of course we also need to talk about Then the technical gap.
Satoshi’s writings show deep understanding of crypto, distributed systems, game theory, and computer science.
Epstein’s emails show none of that.
When Epstein talks about Bitcoin, he speaks like a financier.
He never discusses proof of work, difficulty adjustment, nodes, mining incentives, or attack vectors.
Completely different profiles.
The 2016 “founders of Bitcoin” email is a perfect example.
If Epstein actually knew Satoshi, or was Satoshi, this is not how that knowledge would appear.
Then there are fake emails.
A viral email supposedly from 2008 shows Epstein discussing “Project Bitcoin” with Ghislaine Maxwell.
That email is completely fake.
So what’s the conclusion?
Jeffrey Epstein was not Satoshi Nakamoto.
The probability is effectively zero.
What is true is that Epstein was closer to the early Bitcoin ecosystem than most people realized.
🚨 THIS SHOULD NOT BE HAPPENING
Bond yields are going absolutely crazy.
We’re watching a synchronized, global explosion in yields.
– US 30Y hitting 4.9%
– Australia 5Y up >2%
– Japan 10Y breaking out
This never happens in a stable economy.
In finance, we look for correlation.
Usually, idiosyncratic risks stay local.
But that’s not what is happening today.
Why are we seeing extreme statistical events across every major sovereign bond market at the same time?
Because this is about the system’s mechanics.
Long-term rates say something about the credibility of states.
That is, their ability to honor future debts without resorting massively to inflation.
Such a coordinated adjustment implies the market is no longer buying the dominant macro thesis.
It signals internal strains in the collateral system.
The bond market is telling you, explicitly, that something big is about to happen.
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC
Bond yields are going absolutely crazy.
We’re watching a synchronized, global explosion in yields.
– US 30Y hitting 4.9%
– Australia 5Y up >2%
– Japan 10Y breaking out
This never happens in a stable economy.
In finance, we look for correlation.
Usually, idiosyncratic risks stay local.
But that’s not what is happening today.
Why are we seeing extreme statistical events across every major sovereign bond market at the same time?
Because this is about the system’s mechanics.
Long-term rates say something about the credibility of states.
That is, their ability to honor future debts without resorting massively to inflation.
Such a coordinated adjustment implies the market is no longer buying the dominant macro thesis.
It signals internal strains in the collateral system.
The bond market is telling you, explicitly, that something big is about to happen.
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC
Game inside the game.
Most traders have a surface level understand of the markets...knowing how to buy/sell, reading a chart, and understanding a balance sheet.
But there's a whole world behind the scenes that you come to understand with experience.
I'm sure you've seen some of the former NFL quarterbacks turned commentators literally calling exact plays before they happen, just by looking at how certain players are standing.
The little things, the details, unwritten rules, subtleties, incentives, timing, protecting players.
Behind every price move is a deeper game of:
> who's forced to act
> who needs liquidity & where
> who's hedging & needs protection
> what levels matter & why
For retail (like you and me), we gotta be aware of a few things.
Stop loss hunting.
Most of retail puts stop-losses in the same areas...around whole numbers, at areas of support, near obvious lows.
But large players & market makers often push price into those areas to trigger panic, forced selling, and liquidity pools.
And once they can absorb this liquidity + get the size/positioning they want...then price often reverses.
Game inside the game. Understanding intentions.
Next thing. Retail needs to understand timing.
Choppy, boring, and flat markets are not random. Goal is to frustrate, damage conviction, cause overtrading, make retail chase the next shiny object while the big boys accumulate.
Again so the big player can position accordingly.
Tons of little things like this that I'll continue to break down soon.
TL;DR...learn and understand the game theory & psychology behind markets + participants at a fundamental level.
#Alishba_Sozar
Most traders have a surface level understand of the markets...knowing how to buy/sell, reading a chart, and understanding a balance sheet.
But there's a whole world behind the scenes that you come to understand with experience.
I'm sure you've seen some of the former NFL quarterbacks turned commentators literally calling exact plays before they happen, just by looking at how certain players are standing.
The little things, the details, unwritten rules, subtleties, incentives, timing, protecting players.
Behind every price move is a deeper game of:
> who's forced to act
> who needs liquidity & where
> who's hedging & needs protection
> what levels matter & why
For retail (like you and me), we gotta be aware of a few things.
Stop loss hunting.
Most of retail puts stop-losses in the same areas...around whole numbers, at areas of support, near obvious lows.
But large players & market makers often push price into those areas to trigger panic, forced selling, and liquidity pools.
And once they can absorb this liquidity + get the size/positioning they want...then price often reverses.
Game inside the game. Understanding intentions.
Next thing. Retail needs to understand timing.
Choppy, boring, and flat markets are not random. Goal is to frustrate, damage conviction, cause overtrading, make retail chase the next shiny object while the big boys accumulate.
Again so the big player can position accordingly.
Tons of little things like this that I'll continue to break down soon.
TL;DR...learn and understand the game theory & psychology behind markets + participants at a fundamental level.
#Alishba_Sozar
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