ShadowWolf1

Hey guys, what's up crypto fam? 👋 If you're into Bitcoin trading like I am, you've probably heard people buzzing about "CME gaps" and whether they're some kind of guaranteed money-maker. I mean, do these things really fill every single time, or is it just hype? I've been digging into this lately because I spotted one on the charts last weekend, and it got me thinking. Let's break it down in simple terms – no fancy jargon, just real talk. If you're new to this or a seasoned trader, stick around, and drop your thoughts in the comments for some discussion!
First Off: What the Heck is a CME Gap? 🤔
Okay, so CME stands for Chicago Mercantile Exchange – it's this big traditional finance spot where they trade Bitcoin futures contracts. Unlike the wild 24/7 crypto world on exchanges like Binance or Bybit, the CME closes shop every Friday evening (around 5 PM EST) and doesn't reopen until Sunday night. During that downtime, Bitcoin doesn't stop moving! News hits, whales dump or buy, and the price can swing big time on spot markets.
When Monday rolls around (or Sunday night, depending on your timezone), the CME chart picks up where the spot price is, but there's this "gap" on their futures chart – basically, a blank space between Friday's close and the new open. It's like the price jumped or dropped without leaving footprints. For example, if BTC closes at $90,000 on Friday on CME but opens at $93,000 on Monday because of weekend pumps, boom – you've got a $3,000 gap below.
Here's a quick visual from a recent TradingView chart showing an open CME gap around $90,300

Why Do These Gaps Even Happen? 📉📈
It's all about the mismatch in trading hours. Crypto never sleeps, but traditional markets like CME do. Weekends are prime time for volatility – think Elon tweeting something crazy or a big hack dropping prices. While CME is chilling, the spot price on crypto exchanges keeps evolving. When CME wakes up, it has to catch up, creating that visual hole on their charts.
Not all gaps are huge; some are tiny if the weekend was chill. But in bull or bear runs, they can be massive. Remember back in 2020-2021? There were gaps left unfilled for ages because the bull market was raging upward.
The Big Question: Do CME Gaps Always Fill? 🔥
Ah, the million-dollar (or should I say, million-Bitcoin?) question! Short answer: Nah, not always, but dang, they fill a LOT. From what I've seen in historical data, around 80-95% of these gaps get filled eventually.1a1f76 That means the price often comes back to "fill" that empty space – like if there's a gap down at $90k, BTC might dip back there before continuing up.
But why? It's kinda self-fulfilling. Traders watch these gaps like hawks and bet on them filling, which drives the price action. Studies on platforms like TradingView show 60-80% fill rates in some analyses, but closer to 90% for Bitcoin specifically.91efdc Still, there are outliers – some gaps from the 2020 crash era (like around $8k-$10k) are still hanging out unfilled years later because the market never looked back.
For instance, just recently (as of December 2025), there was a gap around the $90,300 zone that people expected to fill during a pullback. It did reverse and hit that area – classic! But remember, nothing's 100% in trading. If the market's in a strong trend, a gap might just stay open as resistance or support.
Here's another chart showing a recent CME gap that got filled

How Can You Trade These Bad Boys? 💰
If you're eyeing gaps for trades, here's my take (not financial advice, DYOR!):
Bullish Gap (upward): If price opens higher, it might signal strength, but watch for a pullback to fill it as support.
Bearish Gap (downward): Could mean weakness; price might rally up to fill before dropping more.
Strategy: Use gaps as targets. Set buys/sells around the gap levels, combine with RSI or moving averages for confluence. And always use stop-losses – crypto's ruthless!
I've had wins fading into gaps during quiet weeks, but losses when trends ignored 'em. What's your experience? Ever nailed a gap fill trade?
Wrapping It Up: Gaps Are Cool, But Not Magic 🪄
CME gaps are a fun wrinkle in Bitcoin trading that bridges tradfi and crypto. They don't fill every time, but with that high hit rate (80%+ historically), they're worth watching. Keep an eye on the CME charts, especially post-weekend, and you might spot opportunities others miss.
What do you think – are gaps overrated or a must-watch? Have you traded one that didn't fill and burned you? Share your stories below, like and repost if this helped, and let's get this discussion popping! 🚀 Who's with me on the next gap hunt?
#CMEGaps #BitcoinTrading #Cryptotips #BinanceSquare #BTC☀
Do CME gaps always fill?
YesNoMostly $FOLKS $LONG $BTC

Everyone's saying Bitcoin needs another 4 years for the big one, but nah, that's not it.
The bottom comes first, then we get that long multi-year grind up. The massive bull is still coming, and I'm calling BTC hitting $250k+ easy.
Let me break it down for you real quick – I dove deep into these long-term Bitcoin cycle models so you don't have to 😏
This one's based on that Log-Periodic Power Law stuff – you know, the kind of models physicists use for earthquakes, material breaks, and even financial bubbles. Bitcoin matches it insanely well.
We're talking:
- 16 years of data
- Over 5,600 daily points
- R² damn near 0.98 🔥

The key isn't just the price target, it's where we are right now on the long-term trend line.
BTC is currently trading BELOW that fair value curve – showing up as negative residuals. Every time we've hung out here for a while in the past? It wasn't a top... it was prime accumulation before huge runs up.
Short-term though? Yeah, it's gonna stay messy. 2026 could be choppy, weak, maybe more downside or sideways grind – macro stuff and liquidity aren't helping.
But here's where it gets exciting 🤯
The model's oscillatory part (the one that times the cycles) starts flipping positive after 2026.
We saw the same turns in 2015 and 2019... both kicked off multi-year beasts, not some quick pump and dump.
If this holds (and it fits like a glove), the big expansion phase hits 2027-2029. Not one crazy year, but a sustained monster move.
Purely from the math, $250k by the end of that window isn't wild – it's actually pretty conservative. Way higher is on the table if we get some mania.
One thing people get wrong: Volatility dropping as BTC grows doesn't kill the gains. Early days were 1000% moves on tiny bases. Now? 60-80% swings on a $100k+ asset are still life-changing money 💰
Risk/reward looks stacked here. Even if the model glitches, BTC should snap back to the power law trend – still way higher. For it to fully break? You'd need this 16-year pattern to shatter just as institutions and countries pile in. Possible, but not my base case.
TL;DR:
- 2026: Probably rough/choppy 🐻
- 2027-2029: Math goes parabolic 🚀
- $250k+: Totally backed by the data
- This is a long game setup, perfect for stacking now
What do you think? Holding through the chop or waiting? Drop your takes below! 👇🔥
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BullRun

$LIGHT
$ETH
$BTC