Lonewolf1993

treating it like some unbreakable tradition in crypto.
So many years spent holding tight.
So many years clinging to faith.
So many years repeating that mantra: “The next cycle will finally deliver.”
Bitcoin surged roughly 8.5 times from its 2022 bear market low around $15,400. Ethereum climbed about 5.5 times from its bottom near $900. Meanwhile, gold and silver both smashed through to fresh record highs.
And altcoin holders?
We just held on and kept dreaming.
Every price drop felt like a chance to buy more.
Every setback was chalked up to “just needing more time.”
Yet here we are, closing out another year with the same old pattern resetting itself.
No real excitement, no capital flowing into alts, no big moment where they finally shine.
Staying convicted these days feels exhausting and downright discouraging.
The whole community keeps circling back to the same tough question: Have we held on too long… or was that big altcoin breakout never going to happen?
Frankly, this has been one of the weakest year end periods for crypto in the past seven years.
Could this finally be the cycle where the classic four year pattern shifts, and we get a huge altcoin surge in the first or second quarter of 2026?
It’s our remaining sliver of optimism, and it does line up with some solid macro developments like the end of quantitative tightening, the shift toward easier liquidity, and expectations for additional rate cuts next year.
But at this stage, nobody can say for sure, especially since the market has been moving independently from stocks, gold, and pretty much every other asset class ever since that sharp drop on October 10th.
Even the most positive news seems to fall flat, no matter how promising it looks.
We’re sitting on what might be the strongest underlying fundamentals crypto has ever had, yet the price action isn’t reflecting any of it likely due to intense manipulation in the charts.
So it basically comes down to one of two scenarios: Either crypto rebounds strongly in early 2026, playing catch-up with the gains in stocks and gold as trading algorithms recalibrate…
Or traditional markets correct sharply to align lower with where crypto is now. One of those outcomes feels inevitable.
What’s your take will crypto finally surge ahead, or will stocks pull back hard to meet it?

treating it like some unbreakable tradition in crypto.
So many years spent holding tight.
So many years clinging to faith.
So many years repeating that mantra: “The next cycle will finally deliver.”
Bitcoin surged roughly 8.5 times from its 2022 bear market low around $15,400. Ethereum climbed about 5.5 times from its bottom near $900. Meanwhile, gold and silver both smashed through to fresh record highs.
And altcoin holders?
We just held on and kept dreaming.
Every price drop felt like a chance to buy more.
Every setback was chalked up to “just needing more time.”
Yet here we are, closing out another year with the same old pattern resetting itself.
No real excitement, no capital flowing into alts, no big moment where they finally shine.
Staying convicted these days feels exhausting and downright discouraging.
The whole community keeps circling back to the same tough question: Have we held on too long… or was that big altcoin breakout never going to happen?
Frankly, this has been one of the weakest year end periods for crypto in the past seven years.
Could this finally be the cycle where the classic four year pattern shifts, and we get a huge altcoin surge in the first or second quarter of 2026?
It’s our remaining sliver of optimism, and it does line up with some solid macro developments like the end of quantitative tightening, the shift toward easier liquidity, and expectations for additional rate cuts next year.
But at this stage, nobody can say for sure, especially since the market has been moving independently from stocks, gold, and pretty much every other asset class ever since that sharp drop on October 10th.
Even the most positive news seems to fall flat, no matter how promising it looks.
We’re sitting on what might be the strongest underlying fundamentals crypto has ever had, yet the price action isn’t reflecting any of it likely due to intense manipulation in the charts.
So it basically comes down to one of two scenarios: Either crypto rebounds strongly in early 2026, playing catch-up with the gains in stocks and gold as trading algorithms recalibrate…
Or traditional markets correct sharply to align lower with where crypto is now. One of those outcomes feels inevitable.
What’s your take will crypto finally surge ahead, or will stocks pull back hard to meet it?

前言
投机是一门很专业的行当，而专业是通过专业学习和专业训练才能获得的一种素质，绝大多数人初踏入这个市场并没有这种专业能力，
你生病了都知道最好去三甲医院找医生看，而不是随便找个人问问，甚至连小医院都不愿意去，必须三甲，如果你要开车，
你需要先去报考驾校，经过专业的学习拿到驾照之后才能开车，你需要读 4 年大学，学习上百门课都不见得毕业能找一份工作，那为何大家会认为自己随便的一个人，
毫无交易领域的专业素养，没有经过任何专业的训练，就能在交易市场中赚钱呢。资本市场有世界上最聪明的一群人，
交易不产生利润，都是在互相割韭菜。要时时刻刻反思，凭什么我能从别人兜里赚到钱？

市场上有不少人关于交易类的课程，但是他们基本都是在教 K 线之中的技术，他们自己觉得自己是靠技术赚到的钱，所以教你们技术。但是我自认为他们是靠的天赋和经验，
也就是说他们自己靠那种技术可以赚到钱，但是你学了，大概率不能。交易中的核心并不在于技术，
而在 K 线之外的东西，你靠着那些学来的技术，是无法形成自己的一整套交易系统的。
比如最近对一波行情，判断会上涨，判断会涨到 12W 的不在少数，但有几个人拿到 12W 呢?
有利润就想落袋为安，亏损了就想加仓。市场险恶，散户是弱势群体，在市场面前我们都是小学生。
想成为一个可以稳定盈利的交易员，你需要走过下面 3 个阶段:

1不知道交易是一件专业的，很难的事情。
这是你开始从事于交易的第一个阶段，由于你听别人说，炒股、期货能赚大钱你就进来了，我想各位都是看别人暴富的例子才进来的吧？可能大家一进这个市场的时候就是牛市，
或者一时运气好，发现交易赚钱好容易啊，每天进进出出发现还挺赚钱。可一旦熊市来临，
或者你开始运气不好，你出现了亏损，然后你开始尝试加倍加杠杆去做，有时候你是赢回来了，
但是更多的时候，你发现自己亏的更多，又或者别人告诉你死拿，价值投资，结果最后发现本金只剩十分之一了。

2开始意识到靠交易赚钱需要专业知识，不能蛮干
由于你前面亏了大钱，你开始反思然后意识到交易是一件专业的事情，你不能这样蛮干。
然后，1.你开始找了一堆专业的书来看,或者网上到处搜你觉得有用的东西。2.你开始去学各种指标，去学各种技术，比如波浪，缠论等等。3.你开始去各路韭菜群里找各种所谓的神，崇拜他们想听他们的行情分析、交易观点，希望从他们身上学到交易的盈利之道。
4.你开始考虑别人的“喊单”，又或者买一些大师所谓的交易指标，最后你发现这对你其实都不管用，你还是没赚到钱。
5.你开始去找一些大师，从他们的课程里想找到交易的盈利之法。在这些过程中，你会很多次爆仓，很多次亏损，很多次绝望，但是如果你没有放弃，你会慢慢的开始体会到交易的精髓，某个瞬间，你突然就进入了第三个阶段
3意识到交易是可以稳定赚钱的

你的交易逻辑、交易系统告诉你怎么做，你就做什么，看不懂的一概不做。你可以接受亏损，严格止损，也可以接受盈利，让盈利奔跑。你开始亏亏赚赚，但是总体是亏小钱赚大钱，
不会亏大钱了，最后你还是赚的。你已经算上一个好的交易员了，于是其他人开始称呼你为老师啥的。
你已经搞定了交易，每天你开单-止损-加仓-止盈到了行云流水的地步，就像一个老司机，
开在一个走了十多年的道路上，你已经可以游刃有余。你盈利了 100%，也不会比 10%更加兴奋，
你已经把这盈利和亏损，都当成了理所当然。你能控制自己的情绪，成了一个真正的操盘手，一个能赚大钱的操盘手。
你成了真正的所谓老师，每个人都想听你说几句，让你发表下看法。
你用心磨炼出来你的交易系统，你的道，它给你带来了最大的利润而风险并无增
加。现在,你拥有了一种能力，直觉。你已经对交易不再兴奋，而事实上，可能还会觉得有些闷，
就像其他工作一样。走到这一步需要耐心，毅力，坚韧好学，有慧根，估计最多也就
2%吧，百里挑一。
各位想想自己是不是如此，以及自己在这个市场里走到哪了?