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According to Odaily, monitoring by CryptoQuant indicates a significant slowdown in Bitcoin demand since October 2025, suggesting the cryptocurrency has entered a new bear market cycle. Analysts highlight that three waves of investment demand—spot ETF approval, the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and corporate financial asset allocation bubbles—have largely been exhausted. In the fourth quarter, ETF holdings decreased by approximately 24,000 BTC, and perpetual contract funding rates have dropped to their lowest level since December 2023. Additionally, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 365-day moving average of approximately $98,172, a critical dynamic support level for the asset. While some analysts remain hopeful that interest rate cuts in 2026 could lead to a price recovery, current market sentiment is fearful, with only 22.1% of investors expecting a rate cut at the January FOMC meeting.

According to Odaily, Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Bitcoin custody firm Casa, shared insights on social media regarding the risks posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin. Lopp noted that discussions on this topic have been ongoing for 18 months, with the main conclusion being a hope for a halt or regression in quantum computing development. He emphasized that adapting Bitcoin for a quantum-resistant era would be extremely challenging due to various factors.

Lopp reassured that quantum computers are unlikely to compromise the Bitcoin network in the short term. However, he warned that a comprehensive overhaul of the network, along with unprecedented fund migrations, could take 5 to 10 years. He advised maintaining optimism while preparing for potential adverse scenarios.

According to Odaily, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, stated that the current three-month average core inflation rate is 1.6%. U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking a data-driven candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair.

According to Foresight News, Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank, stated in an interview with Russian media outlet RBC that quantifying the impact of cryptocurrency mining is challenging due to its largely unregulated nature. However, she acknowledged that mining is one of the factors contributing to the strengthening of the ruble.

Additionally, a presidential aide in Russia remarked earlier this month that cryptocurrency mining is emerging as a 'new export product' and is influencing the country's foreign exchange market.

According to BlockBeats, Jocy, founding partner of IOSG, shared insights on social media regarding the evolving dynamics of the crypto market. Jocy highlighted 2025 as a pivotal year marked by a fundamental shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation. This transition is evidenced by core data showing institutional holdings at 24% and a 66% exit by retail investors, indicating a completed turnover in the crypto market.

Despite a 5.4% decline in Bitcoin's value in 2025, the cryptocurrency reached a historic high of $126,080 during the year. The market leadership has shifted from retail investors to institutions, who continue to build positions at high levels, focusing on cycles rather than prices. While retail investors are selling, institutions are buying, marking the current period not as a bull market peak but as an institutional accumulation phase.

Looking ahead to 2026, the midterm elections in November are expected to influence market dynamics. Historically, election years prioritize policy, suggesting that the first half of 2026 may be a policy honeymoon period favorable for institutional allocation and market optimism. However, the latter half of the year may see increased volatility due to political uncertainties. Risks include potential delays in market structure legislation, continued selling by long-term holders, and uncertain election outcomes. Yet, these risks also present opportunities, as periods of pessimism often offer the best chances for strategic positioning.

In the short term (3-6 months), Bitcoin is anticipated to fluctuate between $87,000 and $95,000, with institutions continuing to accumulate. In the medium term (first half of 2026), policy and institutional drivers could push Bitcoin's target to between $120,000 and $150,000. In the long term (second half of 2026), increased volatility is expected, influenced by election results and policy continuity.

The year 2025 signifies an accelerated institutionalization of the crypto market. Despite negative annual returns for Bitcoin, ETF investors have demonstrated strong holding resilience. The year is characterized by the largest supply turnover, robust institutional allocation intentions, clear policy support, and extensive infrastructure development. Although Bitcoin's price fell by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, indicating optimism for the first half of 2026.

Key considerations for 2026 include legislative progress on market structure bills, potential expansion of strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity post-midterm elections. In the long term, improved ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity are expected to lay the groundwork for the next market uptrend, as traditional valuation logic becomes obsolete and new pricing power is established.

According to PANews, Maple Finance co-founder and CEO Sidney Powell has declared that traditional decentralized finance (DeFi) is "dead," with the future being defined by on-chain capital markets. Powell emphasized that as institutions increasingly move trading, clearing, and settlement processes on-chain, the conventional reliance on Wall Street intermediaries and infrastructure will be diminished. He stated, "onchain markets will swallow Wall Street."

Powell highlighted that the early industry model, which focused on speculation and simple lending, will be replaced by a more institutionalized, on-chain financial infrastructure. He anticipates that future capital market activities will occur directly on public or permissioned blockchains, rather than through traditional brokers and investment banks.

According to Odaily, monitoring by CryptoQuant indicates a significant slowdown in Bitcoin demand since October 2025, suggesting the cryptocurrency has entered a new bear market cycle. Analysts highlight that three waves of investment demand—spot ETF approval, the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and corporate financial asset allocation bubbles—have largely been exhausted. In the fourth quarter, ETF holdings decreased by approximately 24,000 BTC, and perpetual contract funding rates have dropped to their lowest level since December 2023. Additionally, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 365-day moving average of approximately $98,172, a critical dynamic support level for the asset. While some analysts remain hopeful that interest rate cuts in 2026 could lead to a price recovery, current market sentiment is fearful, with only 22.1% of investors expecting a rate cut at the January FOMC meeting.

According to Odaily, Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Bitcoin custody firm Casa, shared insights on social media regarding the risks posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin. Lopp noted that discussions on this topic have been ongoing for 18 months, with the main conclusion being a hope for a halt or regression in quantum computing development. He emphasized that adapting Bitcoin for a quantum-resistant era would be extremely challenging due to various factors.

Lopp reassured that quantum computers are unlikely to compromise the Bitcoin network in the short term. However, he warned that a comprehensive overhaul of the network, along with unprecedented fund migrations, could take 5 to 10 years. He advised maintaining optimism while preparing for potential adverse scenarios.

According to PANews, Maple Finance co-founder and CEO Sidney Powell has declared that traditional decentralized finance (DeFi) is "dead," with the future being defined by on-chain capital markets. Powell emphasized that as institutions increasingly move trading, clearing, and settlement processes on-chain, the conventional reliance on Wall Street intermediaries and infrastructure will be diminished. He stated, "onchain markets will swallow Wall Street."

Powell highlighted that the early industry model, which focused on speculation and simple lending, will be replaced by a more institutionalized, on-chain financial infrastructure. He anticipates that future capital market activities will occur directly on public or permissioned blockchains, rather than through traditional brokers and investment banks.

According to Odaily, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, stated that the current three-month average core inflation rate is 1.6%. U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking a data-driven candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair.

According to BlockBeats, Jocy, founding partner of IOSG, shared insights on social media regarding the evolving dynamics of the crypto market. Jocy highlighted 2025 as a pivotal year marked by a fundamental shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation. This transition is evidenced by core data showing institutional holdings at 24% and a 66% exit by retail investors, indicating a completed turnover in the crypto market.

Despite a 5.4% decline in Bitcoin's value in 2025, the cryptocurrency reached a historic high of $126,080 during the year. The market leadership has shifted from retail investors to institutions, who continue to build positions at high levels, focusing on cycles rather than prices. While retail investors are selling, institutions are buying, marking the current period not as a bull market peak but as an institutional accumulation phase.

Looking ahead to 2026, the midterm elections in November are expected to influence market dynamics. Historically, election years prioritize policy, suggesting that the first half of 2026 may be a policy honeymoon period favorable for institutional allocation and market optimism. However, the latter half of the year may see increased volatility due to political uncertainties. Risks include potential delays in market structure legislation, continued selling by long-term holders, and uncertain election outcomes. Yet, these risks also present opportunities, as periods of pessimism often offer the best chances for strategic positioning.

In the short term (3-6 months), Bitcoin is anticipated to fluctuate between $87,000 and $95,000, with institutions continuing to accumulate. In the medium term (first half of 2026), policy and institutional drivers could push Bitcoin's target to between $120,000 and $150,000. In the long term (second half of 2026), increased volatility is expected, influenced by election results and policy continuity.

The year 2025 signifies an accelerated institutionalization of the crypto market. Despite negative annual returns for Bitcoin, ETF investors have demonstrated strong holding resilience. The year is characterized by the largest supply turnover, robust institutional allocation intentions, clear policy support, and extensive infrastructure development. Although Bitcoin's price fell by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, indicating optimism for the first half of 2026.

Key considerations for 2026 include legislative progress on market structure bills, potential expansion of strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity post-midterm elections. In the long term, improved ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity are expected to lay the groundwork for the next market uptrend, as traditional valuation logic becomes obsolete and new pricing power is established.

According to Foresight News, Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank, stated in an interview with Russian media outlet RBC that quantifying the impact of cryptocurrency mining is challenging due to its largely unregulated nature. However, she acknowledged that mining is one of the factors contributing to the strengthening of the ruble.

Additionally, a presidential aide in Russia remarked earlier this month that cryptocurrency mining is emerging as a 'new export product' and is influencing the country's foreign exchange market.