加密市场反弹

When the cryptocurrency market suffered a heavy blow, many attributed the cause to an internal 'black swan' event in the industry. However, in reality, the 'culprit' behind this crash was not the cryptocurrency industry itself, but rather the liquidity contraction from the traditional financial market. The 'withdrawal' actions of traditional finance caused ripples that spread to the cryptocurrency market, but also created a rare opportunity for rational investors. The key to bottom fishing lies in distinguishing between short-term fluctuations and long-term value.
How does the traditional financial 'withdrawal' affect the cryptocurrency market? The transmission path is clearly visible. In response to the fiscal deficit, the U.S. Treasury increased the issuance of government bonds in 2025, issuing $500 billion in government bonds in November alone. These bonds attracted a large amount of institutional funds for subscription, leading to tight market liquidity. Major participants in the cryptocurrency market, such as hedge funds and market makers, had to reduce their cryptocurrency holdings to subscribe to government bonds, forming a transmission chain of 'government bond absorption - cryptocurrency selling pressure'. Data shows that in November, 15% of the funds for U.S. government bond subscriptions came from the reduction of holdings by cryptocurrency-related institutions.

Three months ago, I was laid off from my job. With only 20,000 yuan in severance pay, looking at my mortgage and car loan bills, I felt like the sky was falling. I spent over a month looking for a job; either the salary was too low or it didn't meet my expectations. During that time, I was particularly anxious and even started to doubt myself. Just when I felt completely hopeless, I remembered the cryptocurrency market I had previously come into contact with. With a 'burn the boats' mentality, I invested my severance pay into it, and unexpectedly, I managed to turn my situation around.
During my days of unemployment, I had plenty of time to study the cryptocurrency market and developed a set of operational strategies suitable for a 'comeback from despair'. In fact, a comeback from despair relies not on luck, but on precise judgment and strict discipline.

Awakened from sleep by a market alert in the early morning, ETH suddenly dropped below the $3050 mark, causing many novice friends to panic, with private messages filled with existential questions like 'Should I sell?' and 'Can it still rise?'. Don't worry, as someone who has been navigating this space for eight years, today I will provide a heartfelt breakdown: Is this pullback a 'washout' by the bulls or a trend reversal? Where are the key supports and resistances?
Let me set the conclusion: The current market upward structure has not been broken! Although the drop at 6:57 AM was indeed a bit frightening, reaching a low of $3048, I believe my long-time followers know that I always emphasize, 'As long as we don’t break key levels, the trend is not considered changed.' The $3050 level is the first 'lifeline' we have been closely monitoring recently. The quick rebound after this test is enough to show that buying power below is not weak. Moreover, although the main force has been testing the waters repeatedly these past few days, it has not touched the support of the previous high point area. This kind of 'grinding' trend seems to be building momentum for the next surge—after all, the main force won't be foolish enough to sell off their chips at a low price before a rise.

Over the weekend, I was still struggling with whether to cut losses and exit, but the market on Monday early morning got me all excited! Global institutional funds seemed to have made an agreement to flow back collectively. The sharp drop of BTC during the day looked scary, but in reality, it was a super oversold gap that benefited us. If we miss this rebound opportunity, we might regret it next week! As an experienced analyst who has been in the trenches for five years, today I want to share my heartfelt thoughts with everyone on how to navigate this window period of 'trend + sentiment' dual explosion!
First, let's highlight the key points for the new brothers: the weekend market is as quiet as can be, and Monday early morning is as crazy as it gets! Previously, everyone was adopting a cautious attitude of 'watching more, acting less', after all, no one wants to step into a pit over the weekend. However, the long lower shadow that BTC formed during the day signaled a bottoming out, directly reassuring the market. More importantly, in the range of 88,000-89,000, a large number of smart funds had already been quietly bottoming out, just waiting for the early morning to form a collective force. In this situation, there will be absolutely no opportunity for a choppy washout; a one-sided upward movement is almost a certainty!

Last night in the crypto circle, some friends must have been happy while others were worried! ETH put on a dramatic "extreme pull" show, plunging sharply to a low of 3022 twice, a textbook-level "pinning" operation. Just when it seemed like it would dive straight through the level, it was pulled back by funds. Once the "double pin bottom" pattern emerged, many people asked me overnight: Is it time to buy the dip? Don't rush, let me, an old hand who has been through ups and downs for five years, explain it clearly!
First, let's look at the short-term market. The performance on this 1-hour chart is indeed a bit "exciting". After two bottom tests and rebounds, the price has firmly stood above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and is currently gearing up to surge above the middle band, showing signs of a potential breakout above the upper band. Looking at the MACD indicator, there is already a hint of a golden cross below the zero line, and the green bars are starting to gradually shorten, indicating that short-term buying momentum is quietly warming up. At least in the short term, we no longer need to worry about being dominated by the fear of a one-sided sell-off.

In the past, as soon as the Bank of Japan dared to mention the words 'interest rate hike,' wouldn't the crypto circle immediately enter 'misery mode' overnight? But this time the interest rate hike was implemented, and the market surprisingly remained stable as an old dog; not to mention rivers of blood, there wasn't even a decent fluctuation, this contrast is simply overwhelming! As a veteran in the crypto space for many years, today I will share my heartfelt thoughts on why the crypto market suddenly 'isn't afraid' this time.
First, let's give the new fans a lesson, and we will look back at last time's 'bloody history': during the last round of interest rate hikes in Japan, the entire market was directly pressed to the ground and rubbed. Among mainstream assets, Bitcoin dropped directly from a high of 65,000 to 50,000, a decline of nearly 30%; Ethereum fared even worse, halving from 3,000 to 2,000, and many friends who tried to buy the dip were left stranded halfway up the mountain. How suffocating was the atmosphere back then? Opening the chat group was filled with the soul-searching question of 'cut losses or hold on,' even seasoned players were panicking.

In June 2022, I used the 200,000 yuan I saved from delivering takeout to buy 10 Ethereum at a price of 1,200 USD. I then set this account to 'read-only mode.' Aside from checking the market once a day, I hardly touched this money again until December 2023, when I sold it for 3,800 USD. Over 18 months, this investment tripled, earning me 26,000 USD. During these 18 months, the crypto market experienced two major bear markets and three significant rebounds. People around me either frequently bought and sold to 'trade the waves' or, unable to withstand the volatility, cut their losses. Only I remained 'still' in my position. This 'anti-human' patience allowed me to outlast 99% of speculators and earn the money they couldn't.

ETH's performance in the past 48 hours has been like a dead fish, until last night when it suddenly dipped down in a series of tests, triggering the buy orders set by the whale below, directly pulling ETH back from the edge of 3000 dollars. Now the price is hovering around 3120, but is this rally really going to take off, or is it just a dead cat bounce? We need to take a closer look.
News: The whale “bottom fishing” suffers a loss of 22 million, while another whale is aggressively increasing its position!

The “BTC OG insider whale” is crazily switching to ETH. Last night, ETH dipped down, nearly sweeping all his buy orders in the range of 3030-3150 dollars, totaling nearly 92.7 million dollars! What happened? His total holdings now reach 670 million dollars, but the unrealized loss has already reached a staggering 22 million dollars!

When the cryptocurrency market encounters a new round of plummeting, the narrative of 'black swans' again dominates public discourse. However, from the perspective of capital flow, this decline is merely a normal adjustment within the global capital tides. The temporary withdrawal of funds from the cryptocurrency market is not a denial of the industry's prospects, but a reaction to short-term liquidity changes. As the tides of capital turn, the signal for bottom-fishing is already on the way; what investors need to do is to patiently wait and prepare for layout.
The change in global capital tides is the core reason for the recent 'draining' of the cryptocurrency market. Since 2025, there has been a trend of 'shifting from risk assets to safe assets' globally, stemming from the unexpectedly strong performance of U.S. economic data and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. GDP growth rate for the third quarter reached 3.2%, higher than the market expectation of 2.8%, giving the Federal Reserve more confidence to maintain high interest rates. Against this backdrop, funds have begun to withdraw from risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks, moving towards safe assets like U.S. Treasury bonds. Data shows that in November 2025, the global inflow into bond funds reached $89 billion, while the outflow from cryptocurrency funds reached $20 billion.

At 8:17 this morning, my phone vibrated as if it were in vibration mode; the major discussion groups exploded into chaos like a market. Someone typed with a tearful voice: "Is this going to go down directly?" Even more extreme was someone who dropped a message saying, "I'm leaving the group first; out of sight, out of mind," and then disappeared. The scene was livelier than trying to get tickets during the New Year.
I stared at the numbers jumping on the screen, my palms were indeed sweaty, but the words typed out by my fingertips were exceptionally calm: "Hold steady! This isn't a collapse; it's the panic-induced 'bloody chips' that are coming out, and the opportunity to pick up the bargains is here." Sure enough, the subsequent plot unfolded exactly as scripted—an afternoon rebound, an increase of nearly a thousand points, and the brothers who kept pace were already smiling as they pocketed their gains. Although it wasn't the kind of overnight wealth myth, this solid profit is what we ordinary people can grasp.

On the day of the LUNA crash in 2022, my WeChat was flooded with the wailing of friends from the crypto circle. Some shared screenshots of their accounts hitting zero, some regretted using 20x leverage, while the Bitcoin and Ethereum I held were also falling, but my positions were healthy and my costs extremely low. Not only did I not lose my principal, but I also made quite a bit during the subsequent rebound. This was already the third time in my three years in the crypto space that I relied on 'dumb methods' to avoid a deadly crisis. Looking back, the retail investors in the crypto circle often do not lose due to luck, but rather stumble because of their obsession with 'shortcuts.'
When I first entered the circle, I almost became a retail investor as well. In 2020, when the Bitcoin halving market started, some people around me doubled their investments in a week by trading contracts. I couldn't help but rush into the contract market, only to lose half a year's salary in less than three days. After realizing the pain, I understood that the 'quick money' in the crypto space always comes with hooks. Those 'teachers' in the signal groups, the 'patterns' on the candlestick charts, and the 'hundred times coins' recommendations on social media are essentially just scythes for harvesting retail investors. Since then, I have completely abandoned the 'speculative mindset' and set three 'dumb rules' for myself: do not touch contract leverage, only invest in mainstream assets, and use dollar-cost averaging instead of timing the market.

Is it that as soon as you open the market software, you take a deep breath? Bitcoin has broken through the 90,000 mark, and the fear and greed index has plummeted to 27, with various phrases like "bear market return" and "doomsday is coming" starting to flood social media. But as someone who has been in the crypto space for eight years, I have to say a serious truth: this drop feels more like the market is "scaring retail investors to sell their chips," and the real opportunities are hidden in everyone’s panic! Today, I will help you understand the underlying logic of the market and provide different players with an operational guide for next week, so those who understand will likely profit next week.

But today I want to talk to you about something that is not those fancy tactics, but rather a silly method I came up with that almost always allows me to leave with a smile, and even lets me roll from a budget that barely covers an extra chicken leg to a state where I can calmly watch the market without worrying about the cost of vegetables.
If you are also tired of the script where 'every buy drops and every sell flies,' maybe these few tricks can help you turn luck into a repeatable strategy.
Many people enter the market thinking about 'hundredfold divine coins,' I fantasized like this when I was young, until I was continuously taught a lesson by the market. Later, I developed a set of three-round sprint methods specifically to handle various impulsive operations:

The 'collapse once again' occurs when the red candlestick in the cryptocurrency market floods the screen, and many investors habitually blame it on unpredictable 'black swans.' However, a thorough analysis of the transmission path of this plunge reveals that from the political games in Washington to the leveraged liquidation in crypto exchanges, every link can be clearly traced. The essence of this plunge is a 'controllable' liquidity crisis, and the key to bottom-fishing lies in identifying the reversal signals of the liquidity transmission chain.
The first conduction chain is a contraction of fiscal liquidity triggered by political games. Disagreements between the two parties in the U.S. regarding healthcare subsidies led to a government shutdown, directly breaking the Treasury's 'income-expenditure' liquidity cycle. During the shutdown, U.S. fiscal revenue reached $543.663 billion, while expenditure plummeted to $345.713 billion, with the TGA account becoming a 'fund reservoir' that only takes in funds. This liquidity withdrawal quickly transmitted to the short-term funding market, causing the overnight financing rate to soar by 22 basis points at one point, triggering a 'dollar shortage' in the banking system. The crypto market is highly dependent on traditional finance's short-term funding; when Wall Street's funding costs rise, crypto market makers have to tighten liquidity, becoming the 'first driving force' behind the plunge.

After ten years in the crypto world, I have experienced three cycles of bull and bear markets, managing to preserve my principal and gain profits each time. This was not just due to avoiding leverage and holding patiently; there was also a key 'foolish method' of diversification. This seemingly simple strategy acted like a 'bulletproof vest' for my funds, allowing them to navigate the ups and downs of the crypto market steadily.
In the bull market of 2017, I made quite a bit from the Bitcoin I held. People around me advised me to 'go all in and make the most of the bull market.' But I didn't do that; instead, I started trying a 'foolish diversification': I divided my funds into three parts, 60% to buy mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, 30% to buy second-tier mainstream coins like Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, and 10% to keep as a reserve. At that time, some thought I was 'too diversified to make big money,' but I believed that you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket. In case something went wrong with a certain coin, I would have other assets to support me.

Family, who understands! The recent Ethereum market is simply like a roller coaster, some people chased the price high and ended up halfway, while others sold at the lowest point, anxious like ants on a hot pan! Don't worry, today we won't mess around, let's get straight to the point and clearly analyze the current core game of Ethereum. If you understand this article, you can at least avoid 80% of the detours!
Let me first give you a bottom line, I've been watching the market for almost a week and have found a very crucial phenomenon: currently, Ethereum has formed a super hard 'resistance wall' in the range of 3265 to 3275. Some friends might ask, isn't it just an ordinary range? No, no, no, there is a lot to it. From the recent trading volume, every time the price approaches this range, a large amount of selling pressure emerges, indicating that many early profit holders are waiting here to cash out, and the short positions are quietly gathering. To put it simply, this place is not so easy to break through, and it’s as difficult to push upwards in the short term as it is to reach the sky.

“80,000 USD to buy BTC at the bottom, panicked when it dropped to 70,000; just sold at a loss and then it rebounded, should I chase it?”—This is the most common question in private messages on Binance Square this week. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the crypto market is experiencing a “roller coaster” trend, with Bitcoin plummeting 30% in six weeks, and ETF funds flowing out by 3.79 billion USD, with BlackRock's daily redemption amount reaching 523 million USD. However, in my opinion, this is not the beginning of a bear market, but a “golden entry window” for long-term investors, and the key is to find the right judgment indicators.
As an analyst who has experienced three bull and bear markets, I never advise everyone to chase highs and sell lows, but rather to focus on two core dimensions: first, macro policy signals, and second, on-chain institutional movements. From a macro perspective, after the Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut in 2025, the market presented a “buy the expectation, sell the fact” trend, with Bitcoin oscillating in the range of 88,000 to 93,000 USD; this sideways state is often a precursor to a trend reversal. Historical data shows that 3-6 months after an interest rate cut, the crypto market is likely to welcome a new round of increases, and now is a good time for regular investments.

Whenever there is a sharp decline in the crypto market, 'black swan' becomes the most popular explanation. However, in the face of the transparency brought by blockchain technology, any market fluctuation can be traced. The core of this crypto crash is 'liquidity extraction,' and on-chain data acts like a precise ruler, revealing both the essence of 'liquidity extraction' and marking the safe zones for bottom-fishing.
On-chain data first reveals the flow of funds in 'liquidity extraction.' During the crash, only 23% of large on-chain transfers (over 100 bitcoins) were transfers out of exchanges, while a staggering 77% were transfers into exchanges. This indicates that funds are not leaving the crypto market but are instead concentrating from retail wallets to exchanges, representing panic selling rather than long-term withdrawals. More importantly, 42% of the bitcoins that flowed into exchanges came from 'whale' addresses that have held their positions for over 3 years. Historical data shows that sales from 'whales' during panic periods are often a precursor to market bottoms.

The recent cryptocurrency market is like a 'scumbag' that keeps jumping back and forth. A slight increase gives hope, but a small drop sends people into despair. Both bulls and bears are fighting fiercely, and many friends might already be doubting their lives because of the fluctuations. Don't worry, today we'll start from the core liquidation data to analyze what the main funds are really planning. The next wave of harvesting could swing towards either side!
As an old hand immersed in the crypto circle for many years, I firmly believe: the liquidation data hides the market's most genuine intentions. Recently, I've compiled a set of key data that will make you gasp in disbelief—if the price continues to drop down to the critical level of 78000 USD, it is conservatively estimated that $750 million of long positions will face forced liquidation; conversely, if the price can surge upwards and break through the 97000 USD level, it could get even more thrilling, as up to $1.6 billion of short positions could instantly find themselves in a 'life-or-death situation', at risk of being liquidated at any moment.

A few heartfelt words for all investors struggling in the cycle
I was born in 1986 in Shenzhen, and now I'm drifting in Hangzhou. Eight years ago, I entered the crypto world with 80,000 U, experienced liquidation, returned to zero, encountered exchanges running away, and in the end, I was left with nothing but a lot of mess and a broken relationship. At that time, I thought money could be earned again, but when people leave, they really can't come back. I once thought about ending it all, until later I realized one thing: what can save you in the crypto world is never luck, but the unbreakable awareness and discipline.
I. Current Market: Behind the rebound, opportunities and risks coexist