According to BlockBeats, VanEck analysts have observed a 4% decrease in Bitcoin's network hash rate over the month leading up to December 15. This decline could potentially favor Bitcoin's price in the coming months, as miner capitulation is historically seen as a bullish reverse indicator.
Matt Sigel, VanEck's Head of Crypto Research, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush highlighted in a report released on Monday that prolonged hash rate declines increase the likelihood of positive future returns, often with greater magnitude. They noted that since 2014, when Bitcoin's network hash rate decreased over the previous 30 days, the probability of positive returns over the next 90 days was 65%. In contrast, when the hash rate increased, this probability was only 54%.
This pattern holds true over longer periods as well. When the hash rate growth rate was negative over the preceding 90 days, the probability of Bitcoin's price rising over the subsequent 180 days reached 77%, with an average increase of about 72%. Conversely, when the hash rate grew during the same period, the probability of positive returns over 180 days was only 61%.
