Is quantum threat a scam? BTC security barrier upgrade, hold positions with peace of mind waiting for a rise
For a long time, quantum computing has been portrayed as the 'ultimate threat' to BTC—deriving private keys from public keys through Shor's algorithm, approximately 4 million BTC stored in P2PK addresses (including more than 1 million held by Satoshi Nakamoto) seem to be at risk at any moment. BlackRock explicitly mentioned this threat in their 2025 BTC ETF filing, and the U.S. government has also enacted the National Quantum Cybersecurity Transition Strategy Act, requiring federal agencies to adopt post-quantum cryptography standards by 2035. However, in my view, this concern has been greatly exaggerated.
Firstly, mainstream BTC wallets have already improved address structures through technologies like Segregated Witness, fundamentally avoiding the direct exposure of public keys and significantly reducing the risk of vulnerabilities; secondly, experts have vastly differing opinions on the timeline for quantum attacks. Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes it will take at least twenty years, while the UK's National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) suggests completing the transition by 2035. EY analysis also shows that the probability of cracking within 5-30 years is only 50%-70%, providing the industry with ample time to respond.
More importantly, the cryptocurrency industry has already initiated multidimensional defenses. In the fourth quarter of 2025, BTQ Technologies demonstrated a quantum-safe BTC solution based on the ML-DSA algorithm from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Mainstream cryptocurrencies like ETH, ADA, etc., are also advancing anti-quantum technologies, with proposals like QuBit and QRAMP focusing on quantum-resistant signatures. For ordinary investors, as long as one chooses mainstream wallets, avoids reusing addresses, and adopts multi-signature or cold storage, it is possible to effectively mitigate short-term risks. The continuous technological iteration in the industry will undoubtedly strengthen the ecological security barrier of BTC, making it wise to hold positions and wait for an increase.
