Crypto孔明

Industry reshuffle! Cryptocurrencies bid farewell to storytelling, making money through cash flow in 2026 is reliable

The crypto industry is undergoing a profound "self-revolution", marking the end of an era that relied on "storytelling and making PPT" to drive investment. Today's industry focuses more on stable cash flow and compliant operations, abandoning the high-risk, high-reward rough model in favor of a sustainable development path. A direct example is the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, which received a strategic investment of $200 million from Citadel Securities, resulting in a post-investment valuation of $20 billion, with a total of $800 million raised in two rounds of financing. The funds will be used for global expansion and payment product development, preparing for an IPO; Republic Technologies financed $100 million to increase its holdings of ETH through zero-interest convertible bonds; Tether has also injected $1.5 billion in credit into commodity trade financing, continuously expanding its diversified profit matrix.

At the core of this transformation is compliance, which is the driving force. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) will come into full effect on December 30, 2024, setting a clear compliance benchmark for the industry, making it easier for compliant companies to gain institutional trust. Alongside the transformation, the core value controversy of BTC remains: supporters firmly believe that the scarcity conferred by the fixed supply of 21 million coins makes it an ideal tool against inflation in the context of fiat currency overproduction. The underlying rules set by Satoshi Nakamoto are unchangeable, which is also the core logic for the continuous entry of institutional funds. However, skeptics like economist Peter Schiff bluntly state, "BTC is a scam", while Adam Levine Stanton believes its payment function has not become widespread and its value basis is weak.

In my view, the rational voices in the industry are more meaningful: Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong pointed out that cryptocurrencies are tools for reshaping the financial system, but not "saviors"; regulatory measures and anti-corruption factors are equally important. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes judges that a bottom has formed around $80,000 for BTC, and Fed policy easing will boost liquidity, but a stronger catalyst is needed. For investors, in 2026, it is essential to closely monitor projects with stable cash flow and compliant operations, abandoning the fantasy of "air coins" to steadily profit during the industry's reshuffle.

#加密市场观察

Cryptocurrency becomes a lifesaver! Venezuela relies on USDT for survival, revealing a new profitable avenue in the bear market

In Venezuela, cryptocurrency is no longer just a speculative tool but a "lifeline" for the people against the economic crisis. Long-term hyperinflation (over 170% inflation), continuous devaluation of the local currency Bolívar (VES), and a discredited banking system have brought the traditional financial system to the brink of collapse. The decentralized nature of cryptocurrency perfectly fills this gap, becoming an important support for people's livelihoods.

Chainalysis's 2025 Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index shows that Venezuela ranks 18th in the world and 9th when adjusted for population. TRM Labs' report even ranks it as the 11th most active in Latin America, with over 38% of IP traffic directed to cryptocurrency platforms offering P2P features. Among them, stablecoins have become the core vehicle, with 2024 data showing that stablecoins account for 47% of cryptocurrency transactions under $10,000 in Venezuela. USDT is widely used for daily payments, currency exchanges, and cross-border transfers, perfectly addressing the dual needs of the people for "price preservation" and "transactions."

The Venezuelan government has also actively embraced this trend, approving cryptocurrency exchanges to promote "de-dollarization." Oil exports (mainly to China) are fully settled in cryptocurrency, reinjecting into the domestic economic cycle, making it the first country in the world to manage public finances on a large scale with cryptocurrency. Although cryptocurrency has not fundamentally solved Venezuela's economic plight, with an official and black market exchange rate gap still reaching 50%, and the root causes of hyperinflation not eliminated, it undoubtedly provides the people with a breather, demonstrating the strong practical value of crypto assets in extreme economic environments, and revealing the profit potential of stablecoins as a "necessity track" for investors.

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Is quantum threat a scam? BTC security barrier upgrade, hold positions with peace of mind waiting for a rise

For a long time, quantum computing has been portrayed as the 'ultimate threat' to BTC—deriving private keys from public keys through Shor's algorithm, approximately 4 million BTC stored in P2PK addresses (including more than 1 million held by Satoshi Nakamoto) seem to be at risk at any moment. BlackRock explicitly mentioned this threat in their 2025 BTC ETF filing, and the U.S. government has also enacted the National Quantum Cybersecurity Transition Strategy Act, requiring federal agencies to adopt post-quantum cryptography standards by 2035. However, in my view, this concern has been greatly exaggerated.

Firstly, mainstream BTC wallets have already improved address structures through technologies like Segregated Witness, fundamentally avoiding the direct exposure of public keys and significantly reducing the risk of vulnerabilities; secondly, experts have vastly differing opinions on the timeline for quantum attacks. Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes it will take at least twenty years, while the UK's National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) suggests completing the transition by 2035. EY analysis also shows that the probability of cracking within 5-30 years is only 50%-70%, providing the industry with ample time to respond.

More importantly, the cryptocurrency industry has already initiated multidimensional defenses. In the fourth quarter of 2025, BTQ Technologies demonstrated a quantum-safe BTC solution based on the ML-DSA algorithm from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Mainstream cryptocurrencies like ETH, ADA, etc., are also advancing anti-quantum technologies, with proposals like QuBit and QRAMP focusing on quantum-resistant signatures. For ordinary investors, as long as one chooses mainstream wallets, avoids reusing addresses, and adopts multi-signature or cold storage, it is possible to effectively mitigate short-term risks. The continuous technological iteration in the industry will undoubtedly strengthen the ecological security barrier of BTC, making it wise to hold positions and wait for an increase.

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Position exceeds 660,000! MicroStrategy's logic of continuously buying BTC after passing the Nasdaq

Among BTC institutional holders, MicroStrategy's movements are always the market's "weather vane". As the publicly traded company holding the most BTC in the world, this company's faith in BTC has never wavered. From December 9 to 15, 2024, MicroStrategy spent approximately $1.5 billion to purchase 15,350 BTC at an average price of $100,386 per coin; as of December 15, 2024, the total holdings reached 439,000 coins, with a total purchase cost of about $27.1 billion, and an average price of $61,725 per coin. By December 2025 (current time), the company's holdings have surpassed 660,000 coins, and founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor's statement of "continuously buying BTC" is by no means empty talk, with the strategy of "buying and not selling" becoming increasingly firm amid market fluctuations.

What’s more noteworthy is that MicroStrategy successfully joined the Nasdaq 100 Index (.NDX.US), with this qualification officially taking effect before the market opens on December 23, 2024 (with a weight of about 0.47%). Following this, ETFs tracking this index, such as Invesco QQQ Trust, purchased approximately $2.1 billion worth of its stocks, which undoubtedly marks a key step for crypto assets gaining recognition in traditional finance. Even though the business is highly concentrated in BTC, which has raised controversies, the market's choice has already clarified everything. Furthermore, MicroStrategy's steps to increase holdings have not rested, purchasing another 1,070 BTC at the end of 2024, and planning to raise $2 billion through preferred stock financing in January 2025 to continue expanding its holdings, a determination that is admirable.

Of course, MicroStrategy also faces regulatory constraints, with certain local regulations requiring publicly traded companies to limit their digital asset holdings to no more than 50% of total assets. However, as a company that operates both software sales and BTC investment, MicroStrategy has long been adjusting its financial statement structure to balance the proportion of traditional business and crypto asset allocation. This approach, which adheres to faith while also considering compliance, demonstrates an absolute recognition of BTC's long-term value and provides a highly valuable compliance reference for other publicly traded companies looking to lay out crypto assets.

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Cost inversion hides mystery! BTC's 9 historical reenactments, is now a good time to pick up chips?

Recent abnormal signals in the BTC market are particularly noteworthy: the cost basis of short-term buyers for 1-3 months is surprisingly lower than that of long-term holders for 6-3 months, which contrasts sharply with the normal structure where "the entry price for new investors is about 2500 USD higher than the average price of existing investors." This situation has only occurred 9 times in history, lasting an average of 145 days. On the surface, this looks like a precursor to a bear market, with price fluctuations being severe; the cost price difference between old and new players has once reached as high as 1500 USD. However, in-depth analysis reveals that this is merely the market's path of "removing the false and preserving the true."

Essentially, this cost inversion is the result of short-term speculative funds with weak volatility resistance accelerating their exit, while long-term funds that are firmly optimistic continue to absorb chips. Data does not lie; the selling pressure from mid-term holders has not significantly increased, core chips are still firmly locked, and there has been no collective panic exit in the market. Instead, the structure has been continuously optimized during the turnover process. More critically, the BTC derivatives market is actively deleveraging, with the Z value dropping to -0.28. The mode of sharp rises and falls driven by high leverage is receding, and risks are being gradually digested. Such adjustments are undoubtedly good for the long-term healthy development of the market.

For ordinary investors, there is no need to be led by the nose by short-term price fluctuations. The focus should be on the trend of chip concentration and changes in the long-term cost line. Historical experience has repeatedly proven that this abnormal structure will not last long. When short-term costs converge with long-term costs and break through, it often means the completion of market structure adjustment, and a new round of trending market will then be initiated. The current market is by no means collapsing; rather, it is continuously strengthening internal resilience amid integration, laying a solid foundation for sustained future rises.

#加密市场观察

126,000 dropped to 89,000! Behind the BTC fluctuations, the silent battle of macro policies and institutional funds

Goldman Sachs' latest cryptocurrency market outlook report accurately points out the development direction of BTC in 2026. The core narrative of the industry is shifting from 'revolution, disruption, storytelling' to 'profitability, cash flow, and compatibility with existing systems'. Stablecoin settlements, RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization, on-chain dividends, and other practical applications will become the absolute focus. The cryptocurrency industry is finally set to break free from conceptual speculation and enter a new stage of value realization.

The diverse scenarios for price predictions make people even more excited: Goldman Sachs believes BTC could peak in the first half of 2026, and after breaking key resistance levels, the target price could exceed $112,000; while the prediction from the BTC decay channel model is even more aggressive, with the end-of-year price range possibly falling between $205,000 - $292,000. The core supporting these optimistic predictions is the substantial advancement of institutional adoption: currently, the cumulative inflow of BTC spot ETFs has reached $57.23 billion, BlackRock's holdings have exceeded 750,000 BTC, and Fidelity Investments holds about 201,000 BTC. The entry of these giants is reshaping the market landscape. Even more exciting is that in 2026, it is expected that four major brokerage firms will open ETF allocations, at least one mainstream 401k retirement plan will include BTC, and more than two S&P 500 companies will hold BTC directly. The continuous influx of institutional funds will undoubtedly become the core driving force behind the rise of BTC prices.

For investors, the investment logic of 2026 must be adjusted accordingly. The era of relying on narrative speculation is over; projects with practical application scenarios that can generate stable cash flow will truly attract capital. And as the absolute leader in crypto assets, BTC's hedging properties and value storage function will further stand out in uncertainty. Only by abandoning short-term speculative thinking and focusing on long-term value can one truly seize the opportunities of this asset transformation era.

#加密市场观察

2026 BTC target price rush to 290,000! Institutions are entering the market crazily, don't miss this opportunity to make money.

The cryptocurrency market in December 2025 is shrouded in panic sentiment and the resonance of global macroeconomic changes. BTC has retreated from a high of 126,000 USD to around 89,000 USD, with the fear index dropping to a recent low of 23. Such a correction has long been anticipated amidst tightening global liquidity. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to raise interest rates to the highest level in 30 years at 0.75%. Coupled with the tightening of U.S. Treasury bonds and high yields leading to a return of funds to traditional fixed income, along with leveraged concentrated sell-offs on October 11, BTC once touched a low of 84,000 USD, with the intensity of short-term fluctuations far exceeding market expectations.

However, the bulls have not truly retreated. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has ended quantitative tightening and restarted bond purchases to inject liquidity, providing a "stabilizing pill" that gives the market a sense of support. Vanguard has launched a cryptocurrency ETF, and Bank of America allows a 4% allocation ratio of BTC, which is a direct signal that institutional funds are optimistic in the long term. The options market is hedging against rebound risks in the 100,000 - 110,000 USD range, while the spot market has formed solid buying pressure in the 80,000 - 85,000 USD range. The narrow fluctuations in the battle between long and short positions resemble the buildup before a major market movement.

Interestingly, although the Fed's three interest rate cuts in 2025 have been implemented and expectations for only one rate cut in 2026 should benefit risk assets, when the rate cut expectations heated up in November 2025, the BTC spot ETF still saw nearly 3 billion USD in net outflows. This reflects investors' caution towards short-term volatility, but also hides opportunities for bargain hunting. For true long-term investors, rather than getting caught up in short-term price fluctuations, it is better to focus on central bank policies, bond yields, and other macro indicators and industry dynamics. Grasping the core value logic amidst fluctuations is the key to success.

#加密市场观察

Altcoin configuration + holding dual strategies, low-risk pursuit of high-yielding password

In the cryptocurrency market, the high volatility of altcoins really makes people both love and hate it. To make money in altcoins without falling into traps, the core is to do a good job of investment portfolio pairing — BTC must be the absolute core, and never put 100% of your funds into altcoins. The 'ballast' property of BTC goes without saying; its stability and appreciation over the long term provide the greatest confidence to hedge against the uncertainty of altcoins. As long as you take it as the cornerstone of your portfolio, you can then pair it with altcoins for more peace of mind.

Position allocation completely depends on your confidence in the project. I personally prefer a combination of 50% BTC + 50% altcoins (such as ETH, XRP, and other fundamentally strong ones). Altcoins like ETH, which have a mature ecosystem and continuous technological iteration, inherently have stronger resilience and explosive potential than small coins. If chosen correctly, they can effectively amplify overall returns. To take a step back, even if some altcoins perform poorly or even go to zero, the steady growth of BTC can still provide a solid bottom, preventing the entire portfolio from losing to the point of mental collapse; if you hit those quality altcoins that outperform BTC significantly, the overall return can double directly. This kind of 'stability with explosion' cost-effectiveness is worth it. Moreover, long-term holding does not mean stubbornly sticking it out; when altcoins rise to obviously overbought levels and market sentiment goes crazy, decisively selling at least half to lock in profits is the smart way to deal with volatility. After all, securing profits is much more reliable than chasing highs and missing out.

Investing really requires looking far ahead, so don't be led by short-term fluctuations. As long as your target price hasn't been reached, there's no need to get entangled in the fluctuations in between. On the contrary, when the market is sideways or declining, it's just right to slowly accumulate chips through regular investment, lowering the cost, and naturally increasing the profit space for future rises. When selecting altcoins, there's no need to be greedy; just choose those with reliable teams, clear technical routes, and ongoing ecosystems. There's no need to follow the hype of those trending coins without substantial support. The key is to always control your positions well, based on your risk tolerance. For example, if your risk tolerance is low, allocate less to altcoins, and if your tolerance is high, don't exceed 60%. Don't let the volatility of a single asset affect your overall returns due to momentary greed; slowly laying out your strategy is the way to earn money in the altcoin market over the long term.

#eth走势分析

The SEC will hold a BTC and cryptocurrency roundtable today, fasten your seatbelt🚀