佛文BTC

Distributing red envelopes 🧧🧧
(Total value 100 USDT, please share with your friends) Thank you for your attention ♥️♥️

Wishing all my friends a Merry Christmas! May all your wishes come true!

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Red envelopes are here 🧧🧧

Wishing my friends a Merry Christmas in advance 🎄🎄🎄
Merry Christmas
May all your wishes come true 🧑‍🎄🎅.

I'm in Hong Kong. Friends in Hong Kong 🇭🇰 can treat you to coffee and dinner.

Merry Christmas 🧧🧧🎁
Merry Christmas 🎄🎄🎄
Wishing you all your desires come true 🧑‍🎄🎅

Today, the US stock market is closed, the overall weak pattern continues without change, and the Hong Kong stock market is also closed, but on the contrary, the A-share market is performing quite well, and the Renminbi exchange rate has successfully broken 7.

Yesterday, the US stock market continued its upward trend, and it is expected to have #圣诞节 market conditions. The external environment is relatively stable overall, and the central bank's regular meeting has made clear policy stability signals. Last night, the central bank conducted a 400 billion yuan MLF operation, continuing to release liquidity, easing year-end financial pressure, which has a positive effect on overall market liquidity.

In the short term, the market will continue to exhibit characteristics of stable indices and active structures, with a focus on technology growth (commercial aerospace, semiconductors, autonomous driving), real estate chains benefiting from policy relaxation, as well as the financial sector and blockchain Web3.

When volume hits the floor, price hits the ceiling.

The bottom lasts for a hundred days, the top lasts for three days.

Buying coins is not urgent, selling coins is not greedy ​​​
币安广场群
Binance Exchange:
https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/join?ref=VIP19
[
Binance Web3 wallet](https://web3.binance.com/referral?ref=VIP19) Invitation code: VIP19

Using a long-term way of thinking can help us see the whole picture of investment, understanding the true value of #BTC☀ and #ETH . Seeing far enough allows us to transcend short-term fluctuations and various market media noise interference, focusing on the long-term development and value creation of mainstream coins.

Chinese-speaking Binance exchange:
https://www.maxweb.cab/join?ref=VIP19

Binance Web3 wallet (invitation code: VIP19):
https://web3.binance.com/referral?ref=VIP19

In fact, few are willing to simplify complexity; people often feel that it seems lacking in sophistication and care more about whether there will be a significant rise or fall tomorrow. After a few days or a month of adjustment, it feels like missing out on the whole world, because the market has dozens of coins soaring or plummeting every day.

Not willing to wait patiently for a year and a half for the flowers to bloom, everyone just wants those good days of rising, while the difficult adjustments are not what people want, so it can never be as you wish, because you did not endure the night; when the dawn arrives, you will definitely not be present.

#加密市场观察
$BTC

The world will not make way for the timid. But it will reshuffle for the brave.

Do not be passive, lie flat, slack off, or exhaust yourself; maintain your passion, keep your edges, and continue to grow. In this world, only two people are truly worth your protection: your childhood self and your aging self. They are both hoping for you at this moment.

One hopes you set out fearlessly, and the other hopes you return loaded with experiences. I hope you look back without regret, and even more, I hope you have the confidence to start over at any time!
#BTC☀

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

#PAXG
Gold has surged to another historical high, driven by expectations of further rate cuts in the United States, strong central bank purchases, and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical and fiscal risks, with a prospect of achieving the best annual gain since 1979.

#加密市场观察
$PAXG

The offshore RMB has reached a new high not seen in 14 months. The offshore RMB is about to break 7 and soon return to the 6 era. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has fallen below 98, making this comparison very direct; the dollar is entering a depreciation cycle while the RMB is entering an appreciation cycle.

In the next 10 years, the RMB will gradually appreciate to around 6.0. This prediction is somewhat conservative; I believe it could break 6 in about 3 to 4 years!

Historically, when the RMB exchange rate appreciates, Hong Kong stocks tend to strengthen, and core assets in A-shares also benefit. However, recently, Hong Kong stocks have been very weak, and core assets in A-shares are not rising, which is a bit confusing.

Why foreign capital has not yet rushed to acquire core assets in the Chinese stock market is quite complex. In short, an appreciating exchange rate has a certain impact on export companies, is a boon for import companies, is beneficial for individuals traveling abroad, and is a medium to long-term benefit for the big A.

This year has not been easy for friends in Web3 either; those holding USDT have also faced depreciation, but there’s no need to worry too much; there is a high probability it will return, it’s just a matter of time.

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

I have always been curious why there has been this exponential growth in GDP over the past 200 years?

Can the economy continue to grow exponentially like this for another 200 years? What is the underlying essence of this exponential economic growth?

In Li Lu's book "Civilization, Modernization, Value Investment and China," he provides a very insightful underlying deduction, believing that the root of wealth creation lies in the combination of modern technology and a free market economy.

The free market can quickly allocate resources such as capital and talent to the most promising areas of innovation through price signals. Crypto from five years ago and AI in the past two to three years have both achieved rapid development in a short period through market price mechanisms and an influx of talent.

At the same time, technological development allows human knowledge to accumulate in a compound way, where 1+1>4, thereby forming more common knowledge.

AI has already repaired the roads, bicycles and motorcycles are slowly getting up to speed, but there is still no high-speed rail, and there are no cars yet 🚗. The development in the coming decades may rely on AI? 🤔

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

If you don't sell, I won't sell. Let's all go to Dubai.

If you lock up, I lock up. Let's all work towards a better life together.

If you hold on, I hold on. Let's all live in villas together.

If you preach, I preach. Prices will naturally rise.

If you don't sell, I won't sell. Prices will keep hitting new highs.

If you increase your holdings, I increase my holdings. Assets and wealth will double.

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

Send a complete outlook for Q1 2026

Currently, the latest GDP is 4.3%, greatly driven by the commercial investments from AI giants in an arms race, which means the money hasn't flowed into employees' pockets, resulting in what is traditionally understood as jobless growth. On the other hand, extremely high government spending will also directly inject into GDP, with borrowed money supporting GDP figures through mechanisms like the CHIPS Act and energy subsidies.

This is most perplexing for the Federal Reserve, as their traditional economic model, Okun's law, suggests that GDP growth inevitably leads to employment prosperity, which has failed in the face of the current AI island effect.

Looking at CPI, the current service inflation has dropped back to pre-pandemic levels, making it seem like the Federal Reserve's dual mandate has achieved half of its goal. Even if subsequent CPI data turns favorable, it is unlikely to cause significant increases; conversely, any negative CPI data could lead to declines.

The unemployment rate in Q1 is likely to rise to 4.7-4.8%. When people see the rising unemployment rate and a slight increase in prices, if they drop again, they may be puzzled. With CPI under control, a high unemployment rate should ideally increase expectations for interest rate cuts, which would be favorable for increases, so why is it still falling?

The Federal Reserve is likely to believe that although the unemployment rate appears high, there are no real layoffs; it is simply frictional unemployment due to more people looking for jobs, indicating no real economic problems.

Seeing a strong GDP + moderate CPI + a high unemployment rate without real layoffs, the Federal Reserve might use this as a basis to maintain the interest rate "Higher for Longer," shifting their stance from previously dovish to neutral or slightly hawkish.

If this scenario occurs, due to the failure of interest rate cut expectations, the current high position of the U.S. stock market is likely to experience a leveraged drop, while in the crypto market dominated by Bitcoin, even if it doesn't rise, it will certainly follow the fall.

Therefore, regarding the news for Q1, I believe that bad news = bad news is highly probable. However, only if extremely bad news emerges will it equate to good news.

Powell's term is coming to an end, and it is likely that all actions will become more conservative, preferring to hold steady rather than adopt aggressive measures, compounded by the lagging effects of the Federal Reserve's data dependence.

Thus, my overall expectation for Q1 is a turbulent decline, not resembling a historic crash, and there is no need for excessive concern; it is merely a continuation of a poor market.

#加密市场观察

If you only look at the first half of the year, you might feel that buying Tesla was a terrible mistake, but by the end of the year, the TSLA stock price has reached a new high.

Other stocks with long-term potential are similar. Everyone likes to do year-end summaries, but just because you're still "stuck" at the end of the year doesn't mean that this investment is a failure.

Sometimes, it's just a matter of a few months, or half a year to a year.

If you have time to wait and look at it from a longer time perspective, it can actually change your judgment on many assets.

Calculating KPIs annually is good, but there are many phase adjustments and buildups that KPIs cannot capture.

In long-term investing, what really makes the difference is not the gains or losses of a single year.

Life is the same way.
What truly determines how far you can go is not the results of a specific period.
Many temporary setbacks may seem like taking the wrong path, but they can also lead to a process that allows a person to reap more in the future.

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

Doing projects and investing is actually the opposite of what the public understands.

90% of the time is spent on:
not making money, no feedback, being doubted, being denied by the market.

What truly determines the outcome,
often is just that 10% of the explosive period.
And that 10%,
depends on the previous 90% of brewing, waiting, and patience.

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Significant good news! Central Bank: Make good use of the convenience of swaps between securities, funds, and insurance companies and stock repurchase increases to explore a normalized institutional arrangement to maintain the stability of the capital market

A whale falls
All things are born
That whale is the US dollar
In 2025, the US dollar fell by nearly 10%

Various commodities surged
Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other non-ferrous metals all skyrocketed
Only Bitcoin still had a negative annual performance

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

Many people ask: How to make money? But the truth is a bit different from what everyone thinks: Money is not earned; it is just a form of reward.

Money is the result of you continuously creating certainty for others in a long-term relationship, confirmed and rewarded repeatedly by society.

So money is a result, not a goal. If you treat money as a goal, you will likely become someone else's target: a cash crop.

Your ability to help others solve problems determines your wealth ceiling; your core collaborative circle, your altruistic spirit, and your ability to help others solve problems are essentially all about creating wealth, even if you can't see it in the short term.

This also explains a cruel but true conclusion: all high income is essentially the realization of "altruistic thinking" + "cognitive density".

When you start to think about this concept in reverse, what you focus on is no longer "how to earn more", but rather:

1️⃣ Is what I'm solving now a real problem?
2️⃣ Can I explain complex problems clearly, providing structure amidst chaos?
3️⃣ Can I provide certainty when others are anxious?
4️⃣ Do I have a group of long-term collaborators around me? Can I truly provide help to them?
5️⃣ If we don't talk about money, will they still be willing to continue working with me?

As long as the answers to these questions are "yes", money will come sooner or later, and it will come quietly, neither hurried nor slow;

Follow the investment #BTC☀ to avoid getting lost

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

Now it's good, the A-shares have risen 📈, the US stocks have risen, gold has risen, silver has risen, the RMB has appreciated, while your Bitcoin has fallen, altcoins have dropped significantly, and the U has depreciated.

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

After 20 years of hard work, in the end, in the end...😢

Distributing Red Envelopes 🧧🧧🧧

Please pay attention to my brothers @神话BTC @珍妮BTC reply ok to receive a random large red envelope (total value 10 USDT, please share with your friends) thank you for your attention ♥️

I'm in Hong Kong 🇭🇰. On Christmas Eve, the festive atmosphere is strong. Shopping malls and streets are full of laughter, and the city is also beautifully decorated.

Merry Christmas
Wishing you what you desire 🧑‍🎄🎅

The 7 common personality traits of the best investors in the world:
​
1. Patience — "The stock market is a tool for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett

​2. Calm temperament — "This thing has a gene; when the market falls, others will panic. For me, it's very natural." — Seth Klarman

​3. Curiosity — "Cultivate a lifelong learner through greedy reading; nurture curiosity and strive to become a little smarter every day." — Charlie Munger

​4. Fearlessness — "The fear of the unknown is a destructive force. It leads people to make suboptimal choices by avoiding that fear." — Cliff Asness

​5. Focus — The ability to concentrate on what matters is a decisive characteristic of intelligence. — Robert J. Shiller

​6. Realistic self-assessment — "An 'ability' without clear boundaries cannot be called true ability." — Li Lu

​7. Confidence — "Make sure you have the courage to stick to your beliefs and not let the market affect your emotions." — Walter Schloss

#加密市场观察
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

This year's most disappointing top sixteen stocks:
1. Meituan, down 32.23%.
2. Vanke, down 32.09%.
3. Poly Group, down 27.04%.
4. SAIC Motor, down 24.58%.
5. Yanghe Distillery, down 20.70%.
6. Mindray Medical, down 20.24%.
7. Aimeike, down 18.65%.
8. Pian Zai Huang, down 18.60%.
9. Daqin Railway, down 18.29%.
10. Wuliangye, down 16.24%.
11. Haitian Flavoring, down 15.48%.
12. JD.com, down 15.00%.
13. Huaxi Biological, down 13.51%
14. Aier Eye Hospital, down 13.37%.
15. Dongfang Fortune, down 10.40%.
16. Kweichow Moutai, down 4.35%.
#加密市场观察