葉問打饼YynOne11

More than a week, 4wU has reached 10wU, recently my trading has been hot, continuously making profits, always gaining, my bull has arrived, the air force has been living well during this time.
Still the same saying, remember to withdraw the principal after making a profit, use the earnings to keep running.
I have always insisted that bull and bear markets do not alternate; they coexist, just manifesting on different time scales. What we need to do is stay in a rhythm we are familiar with, striking hard at the drowning dogs🤑$ETH #加密市场回调

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散户最怕亏钱，庄家最怕你突然开窍
一旦摸透市场的这三套路，你就不容易被割韭菜了。
很多交易者总觉得行情背后有"套路"——其实，你看到的走势，往往就是主力想展现给你看的样子。

我刚入市那会儿也是一样，追高杀低那套玩得贼溜，每次买进行情就反向，一止损价格就飚起来。后来才琢磨透：不是天意弄人，而是没看明白盘面在干嘛

盘整期：看似无聊，其实在"磨盘"
很多人觉得横盘无聊到爆——殊不知，这就是主力在变相清场
只看一个特征：价格上下两难，但交易量越来越稀疏
就这么横着，坏消息砸下来也不怕，价格硬是纹丝不动——这哪是弱市，分明是有人在悄悄锁筹
那些大行情，往往都从"最沉闷的盘整"中突然爆发

破位翻脸：假跌真陷阱
还没有一波真正的拉升前，主力必须干一件事：把你吓跑。
套路都是这么玩的：砸破关键位 → 散户割肉 → 价格拉回。
特别要盯住这一幕：成交量缩小的时候破位，紧接着放大成交量反击——这不是要坍塌，这是在演戏。

一句忠告：真要跌，何必费力演；肯演戏的，目的都是为了往上拉。
涨不动：出货的信号最刺眼

高位最可怕的，从来不是没涨幅，而是涨到没劲。
你还在想"再等会儿"，人家早就"偷偷出货"了。
这几个信号得牢记：上方影线密集、成交额暴增但价格卡住不动、技术指标出现钝化、主力迹象消失。
摊上这种位置还不下车，就是在给别人做接盘侠。

说白了，K线图不是什么玄学，而是市场的"说话方式"
你读不懂它，就只能当吃瓜群众
你真正理解了，就能比别人早翻页
机会从不缺，缺的就是有眼力见儿的交易者
别等价格一飞冲天了才懊悔： "怎么又没赶上这班车？"
那些真正清醒的人，总喜欢在大多数人还在打瞌睡的时候悄悄布局。$BTC #加密市场观察

白宫与美联储的权力博弈升温，这场风波对加密市场的影响不容小觑。
最近的政策动向值得关注。特朗普与美联储之间的分歧日益明显，市场参与者普遍感受到了这种紧张氛围。业内人士指出，原有的政策倾斜可能面临变数。同时，沃勒即将参与联储主席的竞争，1月的决议可能成为关键转折点。

从经济数据看，情况相当复杂。11月的就业增长数据为6.4万人，看似还可以，但这掩盖了一个尴尬的现实——10月数据被下修，减少了10.5万人。失业率在11月升至4.6%，这样的波动让"稳增长"的说法显得苍白无力。在这种背景下，美联储坚持不降息的立场，直接击碎了市场对继续宽松政策的期待。

加密市场正在经历资金流出。然而每一次波动都隐藏着机遇。当政策的方向还不确定时，聪明的参与者已经开始在不同资产间布局。比特币的避险属性可能重新获得关注，以太坊生态的机会或许值得期待，而那些流动性较好的山寨币在市场不确定性中可能出现更剧烈的波动。

关键在于把握节奏。等待事情完全明朗通常意味着机会已经错过。许多经验丰富的交易者正是在政策空窗期和市场混乱中找到机会。在联储政策调整的这个阶段，提前布局、做好风险管理、密切跟踪政策进展，这些都是必要的准备。市场的下一步走向取决于1月的决议和后续的政策执行。保持警惕，同时保持理性——这是在当前环境下的生存法则。

想抓紧节奏的跟紧叶师傅，机不待人$BTC #加密市场观察

Small capital trading, first discuss position size, then discuss technique.

No matter how accurate the entry point, if the position size is wrong, you will still exit.
Whether small capital can grow big depends not on how much you earn, but on whether you can survive.

There are only four core principles:
Preserve capital first, the principal is life.
Maintain a stable mindset, position size determines emotions.
Only engage in high certainty opportunities, do not trade every day.
The goal is compound interest, not a one-time turnaround.

Common position sizing methods:
Divide funds into 4–5 equal parts to avoid a single trade determining life and death.
Limit single trade maximum loss to 1%–2% of the principal.
Only increase positions during profitable trades, never average down against the trend.
Never go fully invested, always keep some cash in reserve.

In practice, remember three points:
Small capital should be concentrated, not dispersed.
If there are no opportunities, stay in cash; being in cash is also trading.
Regularly review trades, first look at position size, then assess correctness.

In summary:
Position size determines whether you can stay in the market.$BTC #加密市场观察

Bitcoin encountered cooling after rushing to a high of 88000 last night. The Federal Reserve directly released news stating that employment data does not currently support a rate cut in January, and officials further added that the dot plot for next year shows no expectation for rate cuts; the policy tone still needs to maintain a "restrictive" stance—essentially meaning that easing will not come quickly.

The situation in Japan is even tenser, with the probability of a rate hike in December already speculated to be at 98%. What does this mean? Liquidity is still tightening globally, with no signs of easing on the dollar side, and the yen is under appreciation pressure, resulting in a still tight funding environment. Simply relying on easing expectations to drive Bitcoin's rise is no longer feasible.

From a technical perspective, BTC's 4-hour chart has reached a clearly defined compression range. Prices are stuck below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, facing resistance at 93000 and 94000 above, while being supported at 84000 below. The BOLL channel is becoming narrower, trading volume is shrinking, and the RSI indicator is stuck in the neutral zone between 40-60, with no significant breakout momentum. In simple terms, it is in a consolidation phase, waiting to choose a direction—but the macroeconomic pressure is still quite evident.

The key is to see if Bitcoin can hold the defense line at 88000. If this position is lost, 84000 and 80000 may become the next focal points. Conversely, if it can break above 93000, there might be a chance to initiate a counterattack. However, from the current macroeconomic environment, the short-term outlook is likely still leaning towards weakness. $BTC #巨鲸动向

A daily money-losing tip: heavy positions + high leverage

Many newcomers to the cryptocurrency world first react not by learning risk control, but by wanting to understand one thing:

"With this little capital of mine, how can I turn it around without using some leverage?"

Thus, heavy positions + high leverage have become the quickest way for beginners to pay tuition.

Let’s state the conclusion first:
Heavy positions and high leverage do not just 'possibly incur losses',
but will definitely incur losses, it's just a matter of time.

Why?

Many people think:
Leverage = magnifying profits
But the reality is:
Leverage magnifies volatility.

What’s most common in the market is not a one-sided trend,
but rather:
fluctuations + back and forth sweeping liquidity.

This leads to the most heart-wrenching scenario:
You saw the direction correctly,
you didn't misjudge the trend,
but you—
didn't survive long enough for the market to truly move.

Stop-losses are triggered, forced liquidations occur,
it's not that your skills are lacking,
but rather that your position structure was wrong from the start.

Do you know what kind of users exchanges like the most?
Not the ones making money, but these four types:

1️⃣
Loves full positions

2️⃣
Loves high multiples

3️⃣
Loves frequent trading

4️⃣
Loves holding positions

Because in their eyes:
Stop-loss = liquidity
Liquidation = counterparty
Transaction fees = stable cash flow

You think you are taking a 'gamble',
but in reality, you are just providing fuel for the market.

The ones who can truly stay in the market long-term are often only these types of people:
• Light positions, to avoid an irreversible fatal injury
• Low leverage, or even no leverage, able to withstand volatility
• Prioritizing 'survival'
• Valuing certainty over odds

It's not that they don't want to make big money,
but they understand one thing:
Opportunities are always more abundant than capital.

If you are still:
Thinking of turning around with just one or two heavy positions
Thinking of solving life’s problems with 20x or 50x

Then you are not trading,
you are accelerating your exit.

No metaphysics, no courses to sell,
just talking about those—
things you will eventually understand only after paying tuition.
$BTC #BTC

最近美国公布的11月就业数据有点意思。表面上看，新增6.4万个岗位超过了市场预期，但失业率反而跳升到4.6%，这是近四年的高点。
转身一看，10月的数据还被修正向下——失业人数减少了10.5万。
这背后的主要原因是什么呢？特朗普政府的"延期辞职"计划导致超过15万的联邦雇员被从薪资名单上移除了。

这组数据好坏参半，让市场有点懵。不过交易员们的态度还是偏乐观，继续押注2026年会有两次降息。
但这里有个问题——因为之前的政府停摆，10月和11月的就业数据其实都有扭曲的可能性，参考价值打了不少折扣。
美联储的人应该心里也清楚这一点，他们更可能把眼光放到2026年1月初发布的12月非农报告上，那才是真正的决策依据。

从加密市场的表现来看，这份数据公布后比特币还是有所反弹的，现在在8.7万美元附近企稳。
但不少分析师提醒，这个市场环境其实挺脆弱的。
如果缺少积极的刺激信号，比特币短期内有可能跌到8万美元下方去。
所以现在就是在观察，下一步到底是有新的利好来托底，还是会继续承压。$BTC #美国非农数据超预期

Double risks are stacking up, be careful in the next 48 hours.

This Friday is the Triple Witching Day. A day that occurs four times a year, where options and futures expire simultaneously, leading to a surge in trading volume and inevitable volatility. The market is like a stirred-up pool, calmness is non-existent, and emotions ignite easily.

But what really needs to be monitored is the Bank of Japan. The interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday, and that is the key. Recently, the market has already gone through a downturn, and it has somewhat digested the expectation of a rate hike from Japan. Not only is Bitcoin affected, but the Nikkei Index also plummeted overnight. Everyone is asking the same question: Will the yen carry trades be forced to close, triggering a chain reaction like in July and August 2024?

Japan's long-term interest rates have remained hovering around near-zero levels, making the yen the easiest currency to borrow globally. Funds borrow yen, convert it into dollars to buy the dip in US stocks, tech stocks, and even volatile assets like $BTC —this is the complete playbook for yen carry trades. It sounds perfect, but there is a fatal prerequisite: the yen must continue to depreciate.

What if the situation reverses? What happens if the yen starts to appreciate? The cost of borrowing suddenly rises, and those who found leverage appealing become hot potatoes. There is only one way out: quickly close positions and pay back the borrowed money. The problem is, what they sell won’t be yen, but rather those high-volatility, high-risk assets in their hands. The sell-off at this point is like a dam breaking—chain reactions are unstoppable.

So in the coming days, there are two forces to watch simultaneously: one is the technical volatility of Triple Witching Day—a pure trading impact; the other is the potential impact of the Bank of Japan's policy shift on global risk assets. In the short term, with such high uncertainty, market fluctuations are unavoidable.

The advice remains the same: manage your positions well and guard against risks. The volatility is indeed large, but those who rush in are often the ones who get eaten by the chess masters.
Stay close to Master Ye's rhythm if you’re not sure, only ferry those with fate $BTC #加密市场观察

YeWin Thoughts: The large pancake near 87800 is in a defensive position at 885
The daily chart has a bit of a W-bottom indication; the momentum seems insufficient, and the rhythm of the defensive side still has the upper hand—last night, the price surged to 88000, which was quite exciting, but then quickly reversed, and the strong trend could not continue. Instead, it has fallen into a situation of repeated fluctuations at high levels, with multiple upward tests failing, and now it has pulled back to around 87500, indicating that the buying pressure is clearly lacking. Looking at the underlying logic behind this fluctuation, it resembles "building momentum downward" rather than a rebound strengthening.

The technical signals are very clear:
In the 4-hour cycle, the price continues to run below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, and the entire channel is gradually descending, with each rebound height being lower than the last;
The MACD indicator has formed a death cross below the zero axis, and there are no signs of energy momentum declining; instead, there is a possibility of continued release.
Right now, this round of rebound is essentially a technical repair fluctuation and not a signal of trend reversal. Simply put: the rhythm favors the defensive side, and the risk of bottom-fishing far exceeds the potential reward. $BTC #BTC走势分析

What more needs to be said about its value? Double the benefit, earning over two thousand a day, $BTC
#美国非农数据超预期

Master Ye's strength needs no further explanation, today the big pancake has been cut down by a thousand points

Even an old Kongjun leader has started to fidget, thinking of the gold content $BTC
#BTC走势分析

Bull and bear turning points often lie in a moment's thought.
Recently, many people have been asking: is this a real bear market or just a technical adjustment? Let's let the data speak.

From 126,000 down to 94,000, altcoins have been directly halved, with declines of 80 to 90 percent being common.

At the beginning of the month, the crazy performances of meme coins saw daily gains of five or ten times, which was almost identical to the end of the bull market in 2021. At that time, there were already warnings, and it seems now that there are indeed traces to follow—$19 billion in leverage was liquidated in this round of adjustments, and the annual gains have returned to zero.

From a technical perspective, the moving averages have already been breached, with 72,000 becoming a key support level. If it breaks down further, the risk of a bear market will increase significantly. The liquidity environment at the end of the year is also not very friendly, with tight funds, and the anticipated Christmas rally is basically unlikely.

But there is an interesting phenomenon here: while retail investors are cutting losses, institutions are quietly positioning themselves. The net inflow into the spot ETF of a leading platform is steadily at 253 million per day, indicating that large funds are actually accumulating at this stage.

Historically, the 18th month after Bitcoin halving has indeed been a common onset period for bear markets. In the short term, fluctuations in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 may continue for a while.

But the iron rule of the crypto market is: what is at its peak must decline, and what declines must rebound. Opportunities often hide in moments of despair; the key is mindset and preparation—keep your bullets ready and wait for the turning point. $BTC #巨鲸动向

Position management is what truly determines whether you can survive in the long term.

Many people’s understanding of position control only stays at "how much money I invested."
But that is just the surface.

The essence of position management is managing emotions.

Imagine this:
If you are fully invested and hit a large bearish candle, even approaching a limit down,
can you remain calm at that moment?
Most people are not analyzing; they are ignited by market emotions.

Once emotions surge, judgment becomes distorted.
What often follows is: random averaging up, random stop losses, making more and more mistakes.

But what if you only have a 10% position?
To be honest, it’s really not a big deal.
The position isn't high, the logic hasn't broken, you can still hold;
Even if you stop loss, the loss is completely within an acceptable range.
Emotions don’t collapse, and the mindset remains steady.

Emotions → Mindset → Response → Result
This is a complete transmission chain.

Those who truly know how to manage positions have a very slow rhythm.
I have a habit:
I only make important decisions after 2:30 PM.

The strength of the day has basically become clear by this time.
90% of mistakes in the market stem from one word—grabbing.
Grabbing in, grabbing out, grabbing a step ahead to prove oneself.

Slow down, and you will actually make fewer mistakes.
Slow is actually fast.

Once you truly understand and execute position management,
you will quickly feel the changes:
Your trading mindset will be noticeably steadier, and your operations will no longer distort.

Don’t think that only large funds need position management.
On the contrary, smaller funds need it even more.

Position management is essentially risk management,
and it is also mindset management.
There is no technique that can replace it.

Position is strategy,
technique is just tactics.

I have been in the market for ten years, and these are all my personal experiences,
it’s not just a lecture on principles.

Truly understanding position management,
you have really taken your first step into the world of trading. $BTC #加密市场观察

Everyone, the U.S. economic data bombardment is coming, and we must keep a close eye on the market tonight!
At 21:30 Beijing time, a wave of critical data will be released: non-farm employment, retail sales, and wage growth data. These three indicators directly affect the dollar's trend, and the strength or weakness of the dollar has a tangible impact on BTC's market—if the dollar is strong, Bitcoin is likely to be under pressure.

Currently, BTC is hovering around 86,000, and market sentiment is waiting for the results of this set of data. My judgment is that non-farm payrolls may exceed expectations. If the data shows strong performance, the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts will be lowered, putting pressure on risk assets to correct.

Next, at 22:45, the preliminary values for manufacturing and services PMIs will be released. The interesting point here is that if the data is good, risk assets may rebound in the short term, but the dollar will also strengthen, putting the crypto market in a dilemma. On the other hand, if the PMI shows robust performance, altcoins may find opportunities to rebound.

At 23:00, there will also be commercial inventory data, which has relatively less impact, but on such a data-intensive day, every data point is worth paying attention to.

To be honest, tonight is a showdown between technical and sentiment factors; the impact of data often outweighs candlesticks and support levels. To navigate this period steadily, the key is not to fight against the trend—if the direction is unclear, manage your positions well, and avoid this wave of volatility for now. Either take advantage of the opportunity when the data ignites, or just lie still and wait for the results; there is no middle ground. $BTC #非农就业数据

Recently, this market trend indeed shows signs of a major cycle starting. The interest rate cut has historically been verified repeatedly, and each time it provides an opportunity for the capital market to reprice.

After the announcement of the results by the Federal Reserve, the market trend is basically consistent with Master Ye's judgment. Personally, my overall returns this month have been quite impressive, multiplying several times is not an exaggeration. Although I can't be complacent about the win rate, at least I have maintained stability in logic and rhythm.

To be honest: how much money a person can make largely depends on who you communicate with and whose thoughts you follow. If you are always mingling with emotional skirts and shouting skirts, it is difficult to truly grasp the era's dividends.

Master Ye's performance is verifiable, and the information on public platforms is real.
If interested, you can join first to take a look, and then evaluate whether it's worth staying. $BTC #加密市场观察

In recent days, the coldness of the market has been apparent, and there are actually two core reasons behind it.

Double blow from the news side

First, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. This may not seem significant, but historical data will shock you — every time Japan raises interest rates, BTC tends to crash. Last March, it dropped by 23%, in July it fell by 26%, and in January this year, it even dropped by 31%. Although ETH does not react as directly as BTC, it cannot escape either, and a synchronized drop is basically the norm.

Second, the suspense of a change in the Federal Reserve's leadership. Waller has surpassed Harker and has become the most likely nominee for Trump. The market fears this kind of uncertainty — the style of the new chair is unknown, leading digital assets and stocks to tremble together. Furthermore, looking at the Fed's rate cut last week, they plan to cut only once in 2026, which creates a huge gap from the three cuts previously expected. The clouds of tightening liquidity have already begun to brew over the market.

The technical side has already raised alarms
$BTC From the hourly level, risk signals have increased.
DEMACDEMA has been continuously declining below the zero line, forming a standard bearish arrangement. The pressure for a rise is clearly present, with every rebound being forcefully suppressed. Key support levels have already been breached, and the second line of defense is also teetering. However, there is a detail worth noting — signs of a volume breakout are subtly emerging, suggesting that someone is trying to bottom out.

How to view the future market
In the short term, the possibility of continued pressure is greater. In the medium term, if external factors continue to ferment, the decline may further widen. However, the bottom always appears at some point, and the key is whether the volume breakout can be sustained. Currently, most people are observing, waiting for the market to provide clearer signals. #加密市场观察