Oil's already at $111. The DXY is holding up pretty well too. $BTC is currently staying neutral. Looks like someone's benefiting from high oil prices and a stable dollar right now.
$BTC The price structure of Bitcoin is showing an uptick, but the fundamental indicators remain weak. They briefly improved to neutral levels when BTC bounced back from the 60k mark, and surged again when BTC reclaimed the 70k level. But that’s not enough. The price still has potential to rise. However, for a shift in the medium-term trend, Bitcoin needs confirmations from neutral fundamentals to strong ones.
Interestingly, are government-level purchases and those from major institutional players not sufficient for strong fundamentals?🤔
Before the war, Iran was consuming around 126 million liters of fuel daily, while producing only about 110 million. The 15-20 million liter deficit was covered by imports costing around $6 billion a year.
On March 7, the oil storage facilities in Tehran and Alborz province were hit: around 30 tanks in the southern part of the capital were affected. Following this, the limit for a single refueling in Tehran was immediately reduced from 30 to 20 liters, leading to supply disruptions at gas stations. Residents dubbed this 'quiet rationing.'
✅️ April 29 (Wednesday) Alphabet (23:00), Microsoft (23:00), Amazon (23:00), and Meta Google (00:00) will drop their earnings reports; Big Tech is expected to show profits. S&P 500 might rally again.
On May 1 (Friday), we have earnings from the oil sector. This could show some losses.
IamKo
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The most important days are Wednesday and Thursday. Expect increased volatility.
The 4-hour candlestick isn't closed yet, but the overnight movement created a new high and potentially set up a terminal diagonal triangle that could cap the rise. In any case, we're waiting for the 4-hour close; the price needs to drop below the 20-week MA, under all the support moving averages, and only then will the long correction towards 70,000 begin. If the price isn't allowed to fall below and starts forming a flat pattern, another triangle could be possible. It's too early to make any conclusions.
So, right at the open of the Asian session, we saw a pump, and then we broke through the prev week high. But if you check the price action, buyer strength didn't back up the clean breakout, and then buyers started getting eaten up by sellers. After that, sellers took control of the situation, and we experienced a quick drop of 2-2.5%.
➡️ January 2014: Janet Yellen became the Fed Chair, and Bitcoin's price dumped by 84%. ➡️ February 2018: Powell took over as Fed Chair. Bitcoin's price took a hit, dropping by 73%. ➡️ May 2022: Powell got re-elected for a second term. Bitcoin's value fell by 61%. Now, with Kevin Warsh potentially stepping in as the new Fed Chair next month, will history repeat itself, or is this time going to be different?
The market's been smelling more like a dot-com bubble than fresh violets for a while now. It could pump up to 7300.
Starting April 1st, we'll see corporate earnings reports rolling in. Big tech stock prices aren’t reflecting the risks the global economy is facing. The correlation with the old guard is also still off the table.
Trump has 60 days to wage war without Congressional approval (as mentioned earlier).
But he can sidestep the law and extend that period by another 30 days if he invokes the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF). It’s a complicated piece of legislation in the USA.
Meanwhile, ammunition and F/A-18s are being airlifted... If Trump sends out his fleet without using force, he won't be forgiven for those military expenses. Let him choose...
IamKo
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#SP500 INDEX NOT FALLING
War is war, but the indices keep going up
The 500 has a stretch, and while wave 3 isn't finished yet, I'm looking for 5 in wave III, and then after a correction, we'll see a continuation of the uptrend.