DOFA乔大安

I know that now is not a suitable time to talk about ideals, distant places, or 'long-termism.'

The current market is more like a
A machine that continuously consumes emotions.

⸻

Many people are no longer angry, nor are they panicking.
They are just:
• Too lazy to watch the market
• Too lazy to analyze
• Too lazy to listen to any more 'opinions'

This is not calm; it is exhaustion after being consumed.

⸻

I choose to write during this phase, not because I am overly optimistic,
But because I am very clear about one thing:

The truly important moments are never the noisiest times.

一、技术指标

以太坊价格近期继续回落，形成典型的“倒杯柄”破位形态 。日线级别已跌破20日、50日均线压力，均线呈空头排列 ，成交量配合下跌有所放大，MACD红柱加速收缩，显示下行动能较强。若短期内跌破$1,900附近支撑，则可能进一步下探至$1,660–1,720区间 。反之，如能站稳$2,000以上并突破$2,200阻力位，则有望扭转颓势 。

二、合约数据与资金面

当前永续合约持仓量保持高位，表明多空资金都在积极博弈 。合约大户持仓数据显示，多头账户远少于空头账户 ，一般而言，当持仓人数极不平衡时，持仓人数多的一方往往由散户构成，少的一方则多为大户和机构。这暗示机构和大户更倾向于空头，而散户相对更看多。

主动买卖盘上，目前市场卖盘活跃，多数时间卖单占优，表明短期内空头情绪明显。值得注意的是，资金费率目前为负值（约-0.0084%），意味着空头需要支付多头资金费 。负资金费率通常出现在合约价格低于标的现货价格的情况，代表市场空方气氛浓厚 ；历史经验也表明，当市场参与者普遍看空时，往往已近超卖阶段，后市存在反转可能 。

三、风险提示与市场行为

总体来看，多空指标极度失衡时需防范风险。合约多空人数比若出现极端偏向（如一方人数远高于另一方），可能引发反向收割压力 。当前观察到多头人数相对偏少，空头居多；若后市多头人数突然激增，可能发生类似的逆向波动。另一方面，链上数据显示少数大户持续逢低吸筹，小额持仓者在高位离场（即“鲸鱼抄底、中小户割肉”格局）。此外，交易所流入量近期明显上升，意味着可能有部分抛压集中兑现。以上信号综合来看，多头应谨慎跟进，空头压力仍在场内主导。

四、操作建议

控制仓位：当前以太坊技术面偏弱，下行风险较大。建议普通投资者保持谨慎，关注$1,900美元附近支撑位。若价格有效跌破该位，可考虑减仓或止损离场以控制风险。关注反转信号：若价格企稳并成功回升突破$2,000或更高阻力，同时成交量明显放大，才可视为潜在反转信号，再考虑分批参与。此时可关注资金费率回正、大户多空比转向等指标确认转势。避免追涨杀跌：资金面负面信号（如持续负资金费率、大额流入交易所）提示空头情绪浓厚，不宜盲目追多。投资者应警惕短期诱多陷阱，保持风险意识。

风险提示：
以上分析观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议。
#何时抄底？ #加密市场回调 #易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $ETH
#ETH走势分析

ETH has dropped below 1900 again. In the square, on X... there's a lot of discussion: “What's different this time when it drops below 1900 compared to before?”

Looking at these issues, I suddenly realized one thing: prices are changing, time is passing, but the way people struggle seems to never change.

It's not an expert perspective, just a very ordinary participant's thought: spot position, enter the market first and then talk.
Think from a different angle – what if it doesn't drop? What if it rebounds by 10% first?

Then what if it drops?

If you think that only retail investors are panicking right now, you might not have seen this news.
By the end of 2025, Yi Li Hua's institution had built over $1 billion in leveraged long positions on Aave, at one point being one of the largest ETH longs on-chain.
And the current situation is:
• Floating loss of $562 million
• Has already sold over $367 million in ETH on Binance
• If ETH reaches $1,800, this $1 billion position will be liquidated.
I don't want to pretend to be calm; to be honest, this news is not good for the longs.

But I want to make a more straightforward judgment:

A question that has been repeatedly discussed recently:
Will Bitcoin experience another 80% deep drawdown?
I went through the historical data again and recorded several objective facts.

In the past four complete bull and bear cycles, Bitcoin's maximum drawdowns were:
• 2011: Approximately -94%
• 2013: Approximately -87%
• 2017: Approximately -84%
• 2021: Approximately -77%

A clear change is: the extreme drawdown is gradually converging.

This does not mean 'it won't drop again',
Instead, the market structure itself is changing.
First, the holding structure is changing.

I have discovered something very cruel.
Ethereum has fallen to this point, and very few people are criticizing it now.

No more roaring, no more 'buying the dip to change fate', and even panic has become very restrained.

There is only one thing left to say: just wait a little longer.

But you can tell just by looking at the chart—
Prices have continuously fallen below all key moving averages, and the increase in trading volume is not due to funds entering the market, but rather longs being forced to exit.

This is not a washout. This is faith being peeled away layer by layer.

#
The long-short ratio still leans towards long; what does this indicate?
This shows that many people are not bullish but simply unable to exit.

They are not trading; they are waiting for the 'market to give an explanation'.

I saw a statement these past two days that resonated with me deeply.
The co-founder of Gnosis said:

The crypto industry is becoming a 'backend upgrade tool' for traditional finance.

To be honest, this statement hurts more than any market crash.

Did we really come in early just to make a bit more money?
Crypto was very strange back then.

So strange that no one understands, so strange that you get laughed at, so strange that when you mention Web3, you seem like an outsider.
But it was that sense of 'strangeness' that first made people start to doubt:
• Does money always have to be decided by banks?
• Does the platform always have to take a cut, review, and ban accounts?

This could be the most intense and 'real' week in the crypto market in recent years.

600 billion dollars in market value has been wiped out.
The decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum can no longer be explained by a single negative factor.

ETFs are selling.
Leverage was liquidated in batches within 5 minutes.
Miners are starting to shift their computing power to AI.
Even the price range long seen as a 'symbol of safety margin' has been breached.

These events are not uncommon when they happen individually.
But when they occur simultaneously, the market discussion isn't just about ups and downs.

Many people call this panic.
But I prefer to understand it as: a week where the expected system was recalculated.

If you feel the market is hard to endure and time is passing particularly slowly right now,
Every day you doubt whether you've done something wrong——

Then you are very likely in
The most tormenting phase in a complete cycle: deleveraging.

⸻

The scariest part of deleveraging is that
It's not about the drop, but about the sense of exhaustion.

It's not that it stuns you in one day, but rather:

👉 Slowly磨
👉 Repeatedly折
👉 Bit by bit, it takes away your patience

Until you start to doubt:

“Am I not suited for this market?”

⸻

But you need to know one thing:
Almost everyone leaves at this stage.

In this round of the market, the most common phrase I've heard is:

'No rush, let's wait for the opportunity first.'

But if you break this sentence down,
many times its real meaning is:

👉 I don't know what to do, but I dare not move.

⸻

The most brutal aspect of the market is: it does not reward 'waiting',
It only rewards 'those who can adjust'.

what most people call 'equal opportunity',
Essentially doing something very dangerous:
👉 Take destiny,
👉 Handing over to an uncertain timeline.

⸻

You can recall that:
• The first time you said 'wait a bit longer',

I rarely ask one question now when trading:
“Will it go up next?”

I often ask another question:
“If it doesn’t go up, will I be taken away?”

⸻

Many people understand trading as direction judgment,
But in the real market, direction is the least important part.

The only thing that really determines whether you can stay is one thing:

👉 When the market doesn’t go as you expect,
Do you have any space to adjust?

⸻

You will discover a harsh reality:
• Many people see the right direction
• Few people make money
• Fewer people survive several rounds