Year-end Turning Point: How the Bank of Japan's 'Christmas Rate Hike' Reshapes the 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Landscape
On December 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan announced at its final policy meeting of the year a 25 basis point increase in the policy interest rate to 0.5%, marking the end of an eight-year era of negative interest rates. This decision, referred to by the market as the 'Christmas rate hike,' occurred at a time when global liquidity is typically most fragile at year-end, and the chain reaction it triggered is quietly reshaping the operational logic of the cryptocurrency market in 2026.
Year-end liquidity exhaustion and ultimate settlement of arbitrage trading
Unlike any monetary policy adjustment in previous years, the interest rate hike on December 19 has a special 'liquidity amplification effect.' Traditional financial markets are entering a quiet trading period for Christmas and New Year, with institutional investors busy with annual settlements, and market depth is already shallow. The Bank of Japan chose this time to raise interest rates, directly triggering a textbook-style concentration of global yen arbitrage trades.
Yesterday, there were two consecutive deals on the Dodo, both at the lowest points of 85000 and 87500, with nearly 4000 points of space. The hunter always appears when needed. #比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC
【Hunter One-on-One·Real Guidance】 As the year draws to a close, who doesn't want to wrap up the year with a perfect ending? If you're still struggling alone, repeatedly trying and failing, it's time to stop and think carefully. The hunter is here to start one-on-one real guidance, recruiting new partners. This side has clear planning and strict risk control, not blindly resisting, but using a steadier approach to manage the rhythm well. Starting from 3000U, let's stabilize this market trend at the year-end and give ourselves a dignified conclusion. $BTC #比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期
Another season is in cycle, is your ideal still there? The market remains as it has always been, after touching around 89500 it has pulled back again, while our long position at 87500 has easily gained over a thousand points of space. $BTC #比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期
Last night's market briefly dipped below 85000, and the hunters decisively entered at 85000. After waking up in the afternoon, profits were taken, and currently, the market has returned to around 88000, with bullish momentum strengthening again. The daily chart shows a bottoming pattern. The bulls still have room for another upward push. Meanwhile, short-term volume continues to increase. There is a high probability of testing the 90,000 mark again tonight. Just continue to enter at dips.
Around 87800-87500 for more.
Looking up to 89500 and 90500 for a reversal control.
Ether is also taking off as expected, with a range of 2800-2820. Waking up is around 2980, close to a space of two hundred points #美国非农数据超预期 #比特币流动性 $ETH
In terms of Ether, as shown in the figure, it oscillates around the Bollinger Bands. When it reaches the middle line, it is under pressure. Currently, it is near the lower line, and it has once again returned to the daily opening price. If it doesn't fall, it should rise. At the same time, a small divergence and golden cross have formed within fifteen minutes, indicating a high probability of a rebound in the early session. For a pullback, just wait for it to come back. 2820-2800 wait. Looking up around 2880-2900 #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs $ETH
Bitcoin has tested around 85000 multiple times, moving back and forth. The lack of acceleration after breaking indicates that the support below is very strong. The short-term decline has now ended. In the following morning, it is very likely to enter a rebound phase. At the same time, as shown in the chart, the MACD has formed a golden cross, and the volume bars are gradually increasing. The market is running in. Therefore, in the morning, the focus will be on making trades on the dips. 85300-85000 directly on the dip. Looking up at 86500-87000#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs $BTC
The Tides Recede: How the Bank of Japan's Rate Hike at the End of 2025 Conducts a 'Stress Test' for the Cryptocurrency Market
On December 19, 2025, at 11:00 AM Tokyo time, there was silence in the Bank of Japan's meeting room. When the governor announced the end of a decade-long negative interest rate policy and raised the policy rate by 25 basis points, a key pillar of the global capital markets shifted. The Nikkei index fell by 2.3% in response, but more notably, on cryptocurrency trading screens thousands of kilometers away, Bitcoin plummeted by 8% within five minutes, and Ethereum dropped by over 12%, marking the official start of a long-delayed liquidity stress test.
1. Historical Turning Point: The Deep Logic of Japan's Monetary Policy 'Normalization'
You have experiences with poor gambling, but you cannot have a poor gambling life. The market fluctuates back and forth like this. The control given earlier allows for a drop below 85000, so a small follow-up in the trend also has several hundred points of space. Catch up and take off. $BTC #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs
Evening sharing, the market has tested the 85000 mark for the fourth time. Yesterday, multiple attempts to reach the 90000 mark were unsuccessful. Overall, the market is in a wide range of fluctuations. The chaotic fluctuations indicate that we should focus on the 85000 and 90000 marks. Breakthroughs on either side will have some acceleration. Currently, the evening rebound is limited, with the momentum of not returning until a goal is achieved, just continue to follow the trend. Control between 865000-870000. If it breaks below 85000, small positions can be pursued. Looking down to 84000-83500#BinanceABCs #BinanceABCs $BTC
Evening thoughts, after the CPI data was released, the market surged again. The hourly chart shows a bottom divergence, and the 88000 level being defended again indicates that the market is very strong. The volume bars are gradually increasing without any control during the day. The pullback can continue as long as the market is strong. Range of 880000-87500 is strong. Looking up at 91000-92000#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs $BTC
Once again affected by news, the market briefly stretched, and after breaking through 88000 in the morning, it reversed. All has been brought back. There is also more #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs $BTC
Yesterday's market rose to the 90,000 mark due to news and quickly retreated to around 85,200. Currently, it is fluctuating again near 86,500.
From the market perspective, the trend remains weak. Multiple stretches cannot escape the central range of 865-870. The repeated tests of support do not indicate a second bottoming pattern, but rather seem like signs of power accumulation for a breakout. The strong support at 85,000 will break down eventually. On the daily chart, the alternation of Yin and Yang shows a declining trend. It is believed that if it does not break through 88,000 above, it will need to break below 85,000. Therefore, the main focus in the short term remains on controlling rebounds.
Yesterday afternoon, the big pancake rebounded from 86000 to around 88000. This is in line with our expectations from yesterday's article. Moreover, it reversed control around 87,800, with more than three thousand points of space for back and forth. Congratulations to those who kept up.
Currently, the market is still in a weak rebound state. From the market perspective, the prices have tested the bottom multiple times. This does not constitute a bottoming condition. In the short term, the control still holds the dominant power. Meanwhile, the OVS trading volume remains very sluggish. You can just control the overall rebound.
# Last night emphasized that the market's rise was blocked, currently around 86400 near 87800. There is more than a thousand points of space. #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs $BTC