Marina 洁洋

10U Female Warrior 🤩
Opening a single to practice mindset $PTB #加密市场观察

😲😲Yesterday's single carry came back
A small attempt to experience what a roller coaster feels like🎢
Hahaha😂The feeling of a gambler
Seafood noodles are on🥳$PTB

Hahaha😂 I will stand by you all the way $PTB #加密市场观察

The crypto world is buzzing again! The meme coin 'Yuhong is crazy' doubled its market value thanks to a heated group chat debate. Netizens sharply commented: arguing can also boost the coin, the barrier to entry for this meme coin is ridiculously low 😂
#Confusing behavior of meme coins #Outrageous moments in the crypto world

December 18th Cryptocurrency Core News Overview, Key Points at a Glance 👇

📊 Market and Liquidation

• BTC: Attempted to rise to $90,000 but fell back, oscillating around $86,000, with approximately $139 million in long positions liquidated in 24 hours, market capitalization around $3.01 trillion.

• ETH: Lost the $2,900 neckline, dropped nearly 3% to about $2,838 during the day, with institutions withdrawing from the spot ETH ETF.

• XRP: Dropped below $2, but its ETF still received inflows in the tens of millions.

🏦 Institutions and Compliance

• Federal Reserve Easing: Withdrew the 2023 guidelines restricting uninsured banks' involvement in crypto, relaxed membership rules, favorable for banks' crypto business.

• MicroStrategy: Invested about $980 million to acquire over 10,000 BTC, total holdings broke 230,000 BTC.

• Coinbase: Officially announced new stock trading, prediction markets, and Solana DeFi integration (Jupiter), Deutsche Bank initiated a 'buy' rating with a target price of $340.

• HSBC: Launched a pilot program for institutional clients’ crypto custody; Switzerland's SIX listed the first batch of physical Bitcoin ETNs.

• DTCC: Approved by SEC to pilot tokenization of U.S. Treasury bonds in the first half of 2026.

⚙️ Technology and Projects

• Vitalik Speaks: Calls for simplifying the Ethereum protocol to reduce development and maintenance costs.

• Ripple: Expanding RLUSD stablecoin to Ethereum Layer 2 network to enhance usability.

• Vulnerability Alert: React2Shell vulnerability threatens some crypto platforms, urgent checks and upgrades needed.

📋 Regulation and Conferences

• Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission: Processing multiple VATP license applications while updating the list of suspicious virtual asset platforms.

• Blockchain Life 2025: Kicking off today in Dubai, focusing on regulation, DeFi, and Web3 gaming. $BTC $ETH $BNB #加密市场观察 #美国讨论BTC战略储备

As of 2025-12-18 17:46, ETH is currently priced at 2856 USD, down about 3.8% in the last 24 hours, showing a bearish trend with low-level consolidation, strongly correlated with BTC, making it difficult to strengthen independently in the short term.

1. Key Levels Overview (USD)

• Support: 2800 (weak support intraday) → 2790 (today's low) → 2720 (strong support) → 2650 (extreme target)

• Resistance: 2860 (near resistance) → 2900-2945 (medium resistance) → 3000 (strong resistance) → 3050 (daily EMA15)

2. Technical Signals

• Daily: MACD death cross, green bars not significantly narrowing, RSI < 30 oversold, bearish momentum not fully released, weak rebound

• 4-hour: After breaking the previous low of 2870, it is consolidating between 2800-2850, RSI oversold has a need for repair, but lacks capital support, limited rebound space

• Pattern: Lost the neckline at 2900, potential head and shoulders, theoretical target after breaking is 2600-2700

3. Market and Fundamental Highlights

• Capital: Short-term outflow of ETF funds, buying pressure exhausted; staking volume exceeds 32.4 million coins, low exchange inventory provides some support

• Sentiment and Correlation: Market is in extreme fear, leverage long liquidation pressure remains, ETH weaker than BTC, need to see if BTC can stabilize at 85000 support

• Catalysts: Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rhythm, ETH staking unlock and Layer2 ecosystem progress, no strong catalysts in the short term

4. Phase Judgment

• Short-term (1-2 weeks): Likely to oscillate between 2800-2900, breaking 2800 may test 2720; if the rebound at 2860 meets resistance, can short with light positions, stop loss above 2900

• Mid-term (2026 Q1): Key to reclaiming the 3000 mark + ETF funds returning; optimistic if stable at 3000 looking at 3200, pessimistic if breaking 2720 may test 2600

• Long-term: Mergers and upgrades with the Layer2 ecosystem are core support, institutional allocation logic remains unchanged, still has repair space after adjustment

5. Operation Suggestions

• Short-term: Mainly light positions, short in batches at 2860-2900 with a target of 2800-2790, stop loss at 2945; if retracing to 2780-2800, can go long with light positions, target 2850-2860, stop loss at 2760

• Risk Control: Strict position control (≤30%), with stop loss of 50-80 USD, avoid chasing highs and cutting losses; closely monitor BTC 85000 support and ETH 2800 gains and losses
$ETH $BTC $BNB #ETH走势分析 #巨鲸动向

Bitcoin Market Future Trend Forecast

As of 2025-12-18 17:35 BTC is currently approximately 87,225 USD, with a 24-hour

decline of about 2%. Market sentiment is extremely fearful (fear index 18). The following

are phased trend forecasts and key scenarios, with operational references:

Short-term (1-2 weeks, before the end of the year)

• Core judgment: Weak oscillation, first defend then observe, key support at 85,000 USD, resistance at 88,000-91,000 USD

• Three scenarios and probabilities:

1. Range oscillation (40%): 85,000-90,000 USD flat, waiting for clearer Federal Reserve policies and capital flow

2. Weak rebound (35%): If 85,000 USD holds + ETF funds return, it may touch 88,000-91,000 USD, difficult to break strong resistance at 94,000

3. Second bottoming (25%): Losing 85,000 USD, down to 80,000-82,000 USD, extreme to 78,000 USD

• Operations: Light positions + strict stop-loss, reduce positions/observe if 85,000 USD breaks; staggered profit-taking if encountering resistance at 88,000 USD

Medium-term (Q1 2026)

• Key turning point, core variables: Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace, ETF fund flow, miners' cost line (approximately 90,000 USD)

• Trend anchor points:

◦ Optimistic: Stabilizing above 95,000 USD + weekly ETF inflow ≥ 100 million USD, confirming a W bottom, target 10.7-110,000 USD

◦ Neutral: Oscillation between 85,000-95,000 USD, adjustment period extended, waiting for new catalysts in Q2

◦ Pessimistic: Breaking below 80,000 USD and continued capital outflow, probing down to 74,500 USD (April 2025 low)

Long-term (Mid-2026 to 2030)

• Institutional consensus: Long-term bullish logic remains unchanged (scarcity + institutional allocation)

• Target reference: JPMorgan sees 170,000 USD by mid-2026; Standard Chartered sees 500,000 USD by 2030 (short-term target has been downgraded)

• Risks: Regulatory tightening, macro recession, and liquidity tightening may phase out valuations

Core Influencing Factors

1. Federal Reserve policy: Whether the December interest rate cut of 25BP lands or not directly affects risk appetite and capital flow

2. ETF funds: Inflows from BlackRock and others are the strongest short-term catalysts, while outflows would intensify corrections

3. Technical aspects: Daily MACD death cross, 4-hour RSI weakness, insufficient rebound momentum, need significant breakout to turn strong

4. Market sentiment: Fear index 18, pressure from leveraged long positions still exists, difficult to reverse quickly in the short term $BTC #美国讨论BTC战略储备

Tonight, what a reflection, amazing
😲$BTC #巨鲸动向

#币安合约实盘

Today I tried opening two small orders 😂 and gained a little bit

$BTC $CYS

What impact will Japan's interest rate hike have on the global cryptocurrency market?

The core impact of Japan's interest rate hike on the crypto market is a contraction in short-term liquidity and a strengthening of mid-term rebalancing, with the primary conduit being the unwinding of yen arbitrage trades. BTC/ETH are the most sensitive to fluctuations. Below are the phased impacts and trading key points (as of 2025-12-17).

1. Core Transmission Path

1. Arbitrage trades contraction: The interest rate hike raises the financing cost in yen, coupled with expectations of yen appreciation, forcing the unwinding of arbitrage positions that involve "borrowing yen to buy crypto," prioritizing the sale of highly liquid crypto assets to repay debts.

2. Risk appetite decline: Global liquidity tightens, putting pressure on the valuation of high-risk assets, and cryptocurrencies, being sensitive varieties, are likely to fall first.

3. Strengthening of mid-term hedging properties: Rising macro uncertainty highlights Bitcoin's sovereign risk hedging value, often resulting in "falling first, then stabilizing, then strengthening."

2. Phased Impacts (Combined with Historical Performance)

• Short-term (1-4 weeks after the decision): Three interest rate hikes in 2024-2025, with BTC generally falling by 20%-30%; if this time the rate is raised by 25bp to 0.75%, BTC/ETH may experience a short-term correction, and contract liquidations may amplify volatility, with support levels easily tested. Key scenarios: conforming to an expected hawkish stance → yen strengthens, crypto under pressure; not meeting expectations leaning dovish → risk appetite recovers, slight rebound.

• Mid-term (1-3 months): The wave of arbitrage unwinding subsides, and the market returns to fundamentals; Japanese investors, due to yen appreciation, see a decrease in the cost of allocating dollar-denominated crypto, which may bring in incremental funds.

• Long-term (3-6 months): Impact weakens, returning to the crypto cycle itself (ETF funding, halving expectations, on-chain fundamentals, etc.).

3. Trading and Risk Control Key Points

1. Short-term operations: Light positions (≤30%) 1-2 hours before and after the decision, using stablecoins/short contracts for hedging; BTC focus on support at 42000-42500, resistance at 44000-44500, ETH focus on support at 2870-2900, resistance at 2980-3000, avoid adding positions against the trend if breaking levels.

2. Mid-term strategy: Gradually build positions after corrections, prioritizing allocations in mainstream coins like BTC/ETH, avoiding small-cap high-leverage coins.

3. Risk reminder: Be wary of liquidity shocks leading to cascading declines, strictly control leverage, and set stop-losses below key support levels. #日本加息 $BTC $ETH $SOL

As of 2025-12-17 19:10, ETH is currently reported at approximately $2950, with a slight increase of about 0.3% in the last 24 hours. The daily fluctuation is between $2876 and $2982, overall in a low volatility pattern after a significant drop, waiting for a direction to be chosen.

Key Points Summary

• Short-term Rhythm: After hitting a low of $2876 yesterday, there was a slight rebound, and today it has been consolidating in a narrow range around $2940-2960. After breaking through the critical level of $2935, the rebound momentum has moderately increased.

• Key Levels: Support at $2900/$2870 (neckline + strong support zone, if broken, be cautious of $2820→$2650); Resistance at $2980/$3000 (whole number threshold + pressure area, if stable, look towards $3060).

• Indicators and Sentiment: RSI is close to neutral, Stoch was once oversold, and there may be a short-term rebound; approximately $235 million worth of contracts were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with leveraged sentiment being cautious.

• Driving Factors: Fusaka upgrades provide fundamental support, but network activity is at a 7-month low; institutional funding sentiment is mixed, with overall liquidity being weak.

Evening/Tomorrow's Operational Thoughts

1. Volatility Strategy: Sell high and buy low in the $2900-$2980 range, chasing if broken; if $2900 is lost, reduce positions for risk aversion, and if $2980 holds, consider light long positions looking towards $3000.

2. Risk Control: Position ≤ 30%, set stop-loss below $2870; take partial profits in batches as it rebounds near $3000, converting portions to stablecoins to hedge against downside risk.

3. Key Signals: Pay attention to the strength of the breakthrough at the $3000 level, the validity of the $2900 support, as well as changes in funding rates and open interest to assess whether sentiment is turning. $ETH #ETH走势分析

As of December 17, 2025, 5 PM, BTC spot is approximately $86,900, with a "surge and pullback stabilizing" during the adjustment period after falling from a high of $126,000, mainly fluctuating between $85,000 and $89,000 in the short term.

Key Points

• 📊 Price and Sentiment: The intraday low is around $86,200, slightly up; the fear and greed index is 16, still in extreme fear.

• 🛡️ Support: $85,000-$86,000 is the core (Fibonacci + trend line), if broken, look to $80,600, with strong support at $80,000.

• 🚧 Resistance: Initial resistance at $88,000-$89,000, strong resistance at $90,500-$94,000 (downtrend line + previous consolidation level).

• 📈 Technicals: Daily RSI ≈ 43 (neutral to bearish), MACD red bars narrowing, showing signs of a downward cross; 4-hour fluctuations show no clear directional signal.

• 💰 Funds and News: ETFs have seen slight outflows for two consecutive days, futures open interest has declined, and perpetual contract selling pressure has increased; short-term focus is on the US CPI and Federal Reserve statements.

Short-term Judgment and Operations

• There is a high probability of fluctuating between $85,000 and $89,000 in the next 24-48 hours, with the direction pending confirmation of a breakout.

• Operations: High sell and low buy within the range, strict stop-loss; if it breaks through $88,000-$89,000, consider a small long position, and reduce positions to hedge if it falls below $85,000. $BTC #加密市场观察

What are some terms related to profit-making and investment in the Web3 field?

In the Web3 field, terms related to profit-making and investment come together as a complete operational logic, from participating in activities to gain benefits to professional analysis and on-chain short-term speculation.

1. Alpha Airdrop: This is a points-based airdrop event launched by Binance, where users accumulate Alpha points through trading, staking, and using Web3 wallets within the Binance ecosystem. The points can later be exchanged for airdrop qualifications or listing quotas for quality new projects. Points have a 15-day rolling expiration mechanism, requiring continuous activity to maintain points.

2. Farming: Equivalent to "shearing sheep" in Web3, it refers to users actively completing tasks such as testing projects, promoting on social media, and on-chain interactions to receive free token rewards issued by the project parties. The Alpha Airdrop is one of the popular farming projects.

3. Investment Research: This refers to analyzing a project's market capitalization, community activity, narrative logic, technical strength, etc., in the Web3 context, to filter out potential targets and avoid blindly participating in "farming" or trading pitfalls. For example, determining whether a certain project is worth following in the long term or quickly cashing out after short-term farming.

4. On-chain Gold Dog: "Gold Dog" refers to a few small tokens on-chain with explosive potential (mostly meme coins). "Catching Gold Dogs" means quickly capturing trading opportunities for these tokens on-chain, relying on high-frequency trading to gain substantial profits. This operation is similar to hitting the upper limit in the stock market, requiring close attention to on-chain data and community dynamics, while also being alert to extreme risks such as token crashes and liquidity withdrawals. $BTC #巨鲸动向

In 2025, the SEC's shift towards structured innovation in cryptocurrency regulation will have a mixed impact on the global cryptocurrency market, bringing both opportunities for funding and compliance, as well as market volatility and regulatory divergence. The specifics are as follows:

1. Attracting global cryptocurrency capital back: The SEC has simplified the approval process for cryptocurrency spot ETFs and introduced an innovation exemption policy lasting 12 to 24 months, significantly reducing compliance costs for cryptocurrency projects. This has led to a return of cryptocurrency projects and capital that had previously flowed out due to regulatory ambiguity back to the United States, while also attracting traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan to enter the market, injecting incremental funds into the global cryptocurrency market.

2. Causing short-term market volatility and divergent asset trends: On one hand, the SEC's announcement that defines certain cryptocurrency assets as securities often triggers significant drops, with related assets falling by up to 12% within a week; on the other hand, compliance expectations benefit mainstream cryptocurrencies, such as LTC and SOL, which already have futures contracts and meet the rapid implementation conditions for spot ETFs, resulting in more stable price movements, while smaller coins and non-compliant projects continue to be marginalized by the market.

3. Promoting a differentiated global regulatory game: The SEC's flexible regulatory model contrasts sharply with the EU's MiCA regulations, which feature a pre-authorization model. This forces multinational cryptocurrency companies to adopt a “one country, one policy” compliance strategy, while regions like Singapore and Dubai take the opportunity to strengthen innovation-friendly policies, presenting a competitive landscape of global cryptocurrency regulation characterized by “U.S. and European dominance with regional differentiation,” exacerbating regulatory fragmentation.

4. Accelerating the compliance transformation of the cryptocurrency industry: The SEC has clarified the token classification system and decentralized testing standards, providing cryptocurrency projects with a clear compliance “graduation” pathway. This has prompted global cryptocurrency platforms, DeFi protocols, and others to push for compliance transformations such as KYC and risk warnings, while compliance token standards like ERC-3643 are expected to gradually become mainstream in the industry, driving the sector away from barbaric growth.

5. Impacting the core principle of decentralization: The innovation exemption policy requires projects to adhere to investor protection measures and to adopt specific technology compliance standards. This has forced some DeFi projects to introduce intermediary review mechanisms, and the mandatory compliance transformation conflicts with the core spirit of cryptocurrency decentralization, raising industry concerns about “excessive regulation of decentralized assets.” $BTC #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Non-Farm Payroll Night: The 'King of Data' that Shakes Global Markets

On the first Friday of every month, the financial world holds its breath for the U.S. non-farm payroll data, a market feast known as 'Non-Farm Payroll Night' that makes this core economic indicator a 'weather vane' for global assets. As a key data point released by the U.S. Department of Labor, non-farm payroll data encompasses three core indicators: changes in non-farm employment numbers, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, covering non-agricultural sectors such as manufacturing and services, intuitively reflecting the true temperature of the U.S. economy.

Why is it dubbed the 'King of Data'? Because it is directly linked to the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy—strength or weakness in the labor market is the core basis for the Fed's judgments on interest rate cuts and hikes. In the combined release of October-November data in December 2025, the unemployment rate surged to a recent high of 4.6%, and the new jobs added fell short of expectations, igniting market enthusiasm for interest rate cuts and creating an unusual market behavior of 'celebrating a funeral,' vividly reflecting this logic.

For global investors, non-farm payroll data is an indispensable trading signal. Strong data often drives the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. bond yields; if the data is weak, safe-haven assets such as gold typically rise in response, and the stock market may also receive support from expectations of interest rate cuts. From cryptocurrencies to commodities, from foreign exchange markets to stock funds, hardly any asset can remain unaffected.

Today, the influence of non-farm payroll data has long surpassed the data itself, becoming the focal point of market expectation games. When employment data is tied to interest rate cut expectations, and when 'the worse the data, the better the market' becomes the market consensus during a specific period, this monthly data release resembles a 'big test' for the global financial market. Understanding non-farm payrolls means understanding the key code of the U.S. economy and mastering the core logic of market fluctuations. $BTC #美国非农数据超预期

How is the 'Fomo emotion' in the cryptocurrency circle triggered?

The 'Fomo emotion' in the cryptocurrency circle refers to the fear of missing out on investment opportunities in cryptocurrencies. It is primarily triggered by market conditions, external guidance, and the investors' own psychology. The specific reasons are as follows:

1. The stimulation of short-term price surges: This is the core inducement. For example, SOL once surged in price due to ecological expansion and technological upgrades, and Bitcoin has repeatedly set historical highs. Such explosive price increases in a short time can create a rising cycle, causing investors to worry about missing out on profits and rush to buy in.

2. The influence of celebrities and institutions: Elon Musk once tweeted to drive up the price of Dogecoin, and SoFi Bank supported the purchase of SOL, while Harvard University subscribed to Bitcoin ETFs. Such endorsements by celebrities and actions by institutions make investors feel that the assets are reliable, thereby triggering Fomo emotions.

3. The amplification effect of social media: Social platforms are filled with content where investors showcase their profits, and algorithms also promote news about soaring cryptocurrencies. KOLs frequently hype related assets, creating an atmosphere of 'everyone is making money', stimulating investors' desire to follow the trend.

4. The psychological and environmental influences on investors: The primitive anxiety gene in humans regarding missed opportunities leads investors to experience anxiety of 'not buying means losing' amidst the volatility in the cryptocurrency circle. Moreover, if people around are discussing profits from cryptocurrency investments, investors may feel compelled by Fomo emotions due to fear of lagging behind others and losing social validation.

5. Favorable marketing by project parties: Some cryptocurrency project parties release favorable news such as technological upgrades and ecological expansions, or create short-term false prosperity through pump tactics, sending signals to the market that 'if you don't invest now, you will miss the best opportunity', thereby inducing investors to develop Fomo emotions. $BTC #巨鲸动向

The cryptocurrency market has experienced several severe crashes throughout its development, often triggered by regulatory policies, hacker attacks, project failures, and other factors. Here are some significant cases with far-reaching impacts:

1. 2014 Mt.Gox incident: At that time, Mt.Gox was the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world, losing nearly 850,000 Bitcoins due to a hacker attack, accounting for 7% of the total Bitcoin supply at that time. This directly led to an 80% drop in Bitcoin's price and triggered a crisis of trust in the cryptocurrency market, making the industry aware of the significant risks of centralized exchanges and giving rise to the subsequent decentralized movement.

2. 2017 94 incident: In that year, ICO projects were rampant, leading to chaos. On September 4, seven ministries in China jointly issued a document defining ICOs as illegal public financing activities. After the policy was introduced, Bitcoin dropped by 32%, Litecoin fell by over 57%, and a large number of exchanges were forced to move overseas, with project parties refunding tokens. However, the market quickly rebounded, and Bitcoin welcomed a super bull market by the end of the year.

3. 2020 312 incident: Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, panic spread in the global financial markets, with investors selling off Bitcoin in large quantities to cover losses in other assets. From March 12, Bitcoin's maximum drop over two days exceeded 50%, plummeting from over $7,900 to a low of $3,782.13. This incident also shattered the market's fantasy of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

4. 2022 LUNA/FTX chain collapse: In May, the algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its peg, and the price of the associated LUNA token nearly went to zero, with a market value that collapsed from $40 billion in an instant. In November of the same year, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, collapsed due to the misappropriation of customer funds, triggering a crisis of trust in the market. Bitcoin's price fell from $60,000 at the beginning of the year to a low of $15,000 by the end of the year, a drop of 75%.

5. 2025 10·11 crash: The trigger was Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a sell-off of risk assets. Bitcoin once fell by over 13%, Ethereum plummeted by over 17%, and altcoins fell even more. Public data shows that the liquidation amount reached $19.2 billion in 24 hours, with 1.64 million people liquidated. However, industry practitioners estimate that the actual liquidation scale may reach $30 billion to $40 billion, with some altcoins nearly going to zero in a short period. $BTC $ETH $BNB #巨鲸动向

The price of ETH dropped on December 16, 2025, due to the combined effects of macro policies, market leverage, ecological security, and other factors. The specific reasons are as follows:

1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations were not met: Although the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on December 10, Powell was cautious about the future rate cut path and did not release a clear easing signal, resulting in the market's expectations for liquidity easing not being fulfilled. As a risk asset, ETH lost funding support, and the price fell as market sentiment weakened.

2. High leverage positions led to a chain liquidation: The ETH market has a large number of high-leverage trades, with some traders even using extremely high leverage. When the price experiences a slight pullback, it triggers large long positions to be forcibly liquidated, creating a cycle of "price drop—forced liquidation—accelerated decline," which greatly amplifies the drop.

3. The Ethereum ecosystem suffered a security attack: The yETH product under Yearn Finance was exploited by hackers using a vulnerability, resulting in approximately 1000 ETH being transferred. This incident, as a significant security incident in the Ethereum ecosystem, severely undermined investor confidence, leading to panic selling and causing ETH to rapidly plunge in a short period.

4. Institutional fund outflows intensified selling pressure: Recently, cryptocurrency-related ETFs have seen a net outflow for several consecutive days. Institutions chose to reduce their holdings and exit the market when the market outlook was unclear. Without institutional funding support, the liquidity of the ETH market became increasingly fragile, making it difficult to withstand selling pressure, and the price fell accordingly. $ETH #ETH走势分析